Congress
Capitol agenda: Thune heads into a perilous vote-a-rama
The Senate’s “big, beautiful” vote-a-rama starts in just two hours — and nobody knows how it’s going to end.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune can only lose one more vote with Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) already opposed. As Senate GOP leaders scramble to strike deals to keep the bill on track, House Republicans are drawing red lines, with fiscal hawks threatening to tank the bill over the Senate’s budget framework and moderates balking at the provider-tax crackdown.
Here are the big fights we’re watching when amendment votes kick off at 9 a.m., leading to a final vote on passage late Monday or early Tuesday:
Medicaid: GOP Sen. Rick Scott’s proposal to curb a key Medicaid funding mechanism after 2030 has Thune’s support as part of a deal struck to get the Florida senator and a handful of other holdouts to advance the megabill to debate.
If it fails, it could cost leadership some fiscal hawks, though Sens. Scott and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) refused to go there Sunday night. If it passes, it could alienate so-called Medicaid moderates. One of them, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, filed an amendment that would double the stabilization fund for rural hospitals to $50 billion, and pay for it by adding a 39.6-percent bracket on earners making over $25 million.
Medicaid moderates could also try to further water down the bill’s cut to the provider tax. Keep an eye on Tillis, now unburdened by a reelection bid, who slammed the Medicaid cuts in a fiery floor speech Sunday and might jump in again. Another key player to watch is Sen. Lisa Murkowski and whether her support slips after the parliamentarian derailed Medicaid-payment provisions aimed at winning over the Alaskan. The parliamentarian also, as of early this morning, had yet to rule on food-aid waivers for Alaska that could affect Murkowski’s vote.
Green credits: Moderates including Tillis and Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) could offer amendments to soften the bill’s deep cuts against wind and solar energy, including its crackdown on IRA credits and a new excise tax. That could provoke a fight with House conservatives and the White House, which have pushed for aggressive rollbacks.
AI: Commerce Chair Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) are pitching a plan to cut the megabill’s 10-year moratorium on state enforcement of AI laws in half and make accommodations for internet protections.
The grand finale could be a manager’s amendment that House GOP leaders are pushing for to further resolve differences between the chambers and speed the bill to Trump by Friday. The House is scheduled to vote as soon as Wednesday at 9 a.m.
What else we’re watching:
— Farm bill fight: Dozens of agriculture groups are urging senators to oppose an amendment from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that would limit income thresholds of farmers who can receive federal aid. A host of farm-state GOP senators also oppose Grassley’s push, according to three people granted anonymity. Some are concerned that liberal senators could join with conservative fiscal hawks to pass the amendment.
— Solar and wind tax backlash: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Solar Energy Industry Association are slamming a new addition to the megabill that would tax solar and wind projects that have components from foreign sources, including China. “Taxing energy production is never good policy, whether oil & gas or, in this case, renewables,” Chamber executive vice president and chief policy officer Neil Bradley wrote on X.
— Campaign announcements: Rep. Don Bacon is expected to announce his retirement Monday, according to two people familiar with his plans. The centrist Republican’s Nebraska seat is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats; it’s one of only three GOP-held districts Kamala Harris won in 2024. Meanwhile GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson is expected to announce a bid for South Dakota governor on Monday, according to two people familiar with his planning. He’ll be the eighth House Republican to run for higher office in 2026.
Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Mohar Chatterjee and Josh Siegel contributed to this report.
Congress
How clean-energy amendments could unravel the GOP megabill
Republican fiscal hawks and White House officials are trying to kill off a series of Senate megabill amendments that would ease the phase-out of clean-energy tax credits — arguing the move would strip out hundreds of billions of dollars in budget savings and potentially risk GOP support for the overall bill.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and other senators are forging ahead with plans to offer a series of amendments doing just that. One from Murkowski would offer a reprieve for projects that have started construction; critics of the credits want them eliminated quickly for projects that aren’t already completed.
It’s setting up a major intra-party fight as Senate GOP leaders race to pass the massive bill out of their chamber and send it to the House in the coming hours. Fiscal hawks on both sides of the Capitol are warning they will oppose the bill if the phase-outs of Inflation Reduction Act provisions are watered down.
One key issue: Republicans are counting on the crackdown to offset the massive tax cuts and other provisions in the megabill. If senators push their amendments forward without sufficient offsets, which they’re not expected to find, it could spark a major GOP revolt over the deficit impact of the bill.
Hawks are closely watching Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham and GOP leaders, who have the power to determine whether amendments without budgetary offsets require a simple majority vote or a 60-vote supermajority.
“Basically, if the amendment is set at 51 instead of 60, it’s Graham’s fault that reconciliation implodes,” said one Republican with direct knowledge of the talks.
Congress
Dwight Evans says he will retire from House
Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans said Monday he will not seek reelection “after some discussions this weekend and thoughtful reflection,” opening up a solid-blue seat in Philadelphia.
Evans faced mounting questions about his ability to serve after suffering a stroke last year and missing months of votes. He insisted until recently he still intended to run for reelection, though several primary challengers were already starting to make moves.
“Serving the people of Philadelphia has been the honor of my life,” Evans said in a statement. “And I remain in good health and fully capable of continuing to serve. After some discussions this weekend and thoughtful reflection, I have decided that the time is right to announce that I will not be seeking reelection in 2026.”
Evans, 71, has served in Congress since 2016. He succeeded Rep. Chaka Fattah, who resigned after being indicted on federal corruption charges, and is one of six Pennsylvanians on the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee.
His retirement announcement comes amid generational upheaval in the Democratic Party. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) said earlier this year she wouldn’t run again. The party base has looked to their leaders to mount a more vigorous response to President Donald Trump, with some in the party calling for primary challenges to senior leaders.
Evans’ retirement could kick off a fierce battle between establishment Democrats and progressives for the Philadelphia-area seat. Democratic socialists have made headway in the city, particularly at the state level, and pro-Israel groups are eyeing the race, according to local Democrats.
State Sen. Sharif Street, chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, has expressed interest in running for Evans’ seat. One Democrat granted anonymity to speak freely said he could kick off his campaign as early as Tuesday. State Rep. Morgan Cephas is eyeing the seat as well, and progressive state Rep. Chris Rabb is also a potential contender.
“Me and my team are strongly considering a bid,” Cephas told Blue Light News Monday. “But first and foremost I wanted to express my overwhelming gratitude to the work that Congressman Evans has done for the city of Philadelphia.”
Rabb said in a text that “I am seriously considering running for this seat.”
Rumors have swirled for months about Evans’ future, and some Democrats speculated that he might step down in the middle of his term, which would have given power to the city’s Democratic ward leaders to choose a nominee for a special election. But Evans said Wednesday that he “will serve out the full term that ends Jan. 3, 2027.”
Congress
Senate Republicans reject Democrats’ accounting baseline challenge
Republicans batted down a Democratic challenge to the GOP’s use of “current policy baseline,” which zeroes out the cost of $3.8 trillion of tax cut extensions in the GOP megabill. The 53-47 vote approved the use of the maneuver along party lines.
Senate Democrats initiated four parliamentary inquiries on Monday morning in an attempt to show that the tactic is akin to a nuclear option that would blow-up longstanding budget rules.
“Republicans are doing something the Senate has never done before, deploying fake math, accounting gimmicks, to hide the true cost of the bill,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the floor. “To vote yes on this, make no mistake about it my colleagues, will in a dramatic way further erode the Senate.”
Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) countered that he has the authority as Budget Committee chair to determine the budget baseline used to implement and score provisions in the sprawling border, energy and tax legislation.
“I’ve never felt better. I’ve been wanting to do this for, like, a long time,” Graham said.
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