House Democrats are on track to force a new Iran war powers vote Thursday, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss internal planning. The Iran vote will be the first on the House floor since March 5, just a week after President Donald Trump launched strikes.

That timing could change, the people warned, depending on how attempts to expel Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) over sexual misconduct allegations play out this week.

Iowa looks to be seriously in play for Democrats in November up and down the ballot, according to a new survey from a Democratic group that backs moderate candidates.

Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand holds an eight-point lead in the governor’s race, and Republicans hold slim leads in both the Senate race and the generic statewide ballot for Congress, according to the survey conducted by Democratic pollster GBAO for the center-left ModSquad, a group led by Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, who endorsed Turek.

The poll found President Donald Trump is underwater in the red state, with 50 percent unfavorable and 45 percent favorable ratings. Sand led GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra by 50 percent to 42 percent, while Democrats trailed in the generic ballot by 46 percent to 44 percent.

In the Senate race, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson leads state Sen. Zach Wahls by 47 percent to 44 percent and state Rep. Josh Turek by 47 percent to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from March 10-16 with a 2.8 percent margin of error.

Democrats have been regularly let down in recent years by other polls showing them in a stronger position than the reality in Iowa, and partisan polls should always be taken with a grain of salt. And so far, there has been scant independent public polling of these contests. But Republicans have indicated that they see a potentially competitive race shaping up in Iowa this time around: The Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ main super PAC, already reserved $29 million in ad spending there in the fall, making it one of five GOP-held states where they’ve made a major investment as they fight to keep the majority.

The memo’s aim is to show that their preferred candidate, Turek, would be the stronger general election candidate. After sharing favorable and critical messages on the three candidates, the poll finds that Hinson maintains her lead on Wahls, while Turek pulls ahead of Hinson.

“In this environment, Democratic candidates Josh Turek and Zach Wahls both begin within striking distance of Republican Ashley Hinson,” the polling memo notes. “But Turek emerges as the stronger general election candidate: after balanced messaging, he moves ahead of Hinson, while Wahls continues to trail.”

Hinson begins the race underwater, with a 23 percent favorable to 31 percent unfavorable rating. Turek and Wahls are less well-known, with 34 percent and 49 percent name recognition.

After voters hear positive messages and attacks on each candidate, Turek moves ahead while Wahls still falls short. “Notably, Turek makes substantial gains among independents over the course of the survey, shifting the net vote margin 7 points in his favor and opening up a 17-point lead with them,” according to the polling memo.

The memo says Turek, a basketball Paralympian, has more room to grow after voters hear his profile: 62 percent say Turek’s profile is a convincing reason to vote for him compared with 51 percent for Wahls and 48 percent for Hinson.

But the memo didn’t share the messages the poll tested, making it impossible to discern if that message test is a fair or accurate test of how the general election might play out.

Republicans return to Washington this week eager to promote the pocketbook benefits of their nine-month-old megabill ahead of Tax Day. But the fallout from the war in the Middle East threatens to complicate that election-year message.

Explaining away rising gas prices and spiking inflation is not where GOP lawmakers wanted to be seven months before the midterms, but that is the challenge they face as a cease fire with Iran proves tenuous and there is scant evidence global energy flows will return to normal anytime soon. That’s not to mention the host of internal policy battles further distracting GOP lawmakers as they return from a two-week recess.

Still, they are seeking to rally this around the glue that has held their fractious coalition together — tax cuts — with Trump going on the road this week to tout the “big, beautiful bill” and House Republicans planning a Wednesday all-member news conference, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss the plans ahead of an announcement.

“My constituents are saving thousands of dollars and they know it,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said in an interview. “Republicans can and should take credit because the alternative would’ve been massive tax hikes under the Democrats had they won the 2024 election.”

She played down fears that the Iran conflict could weigh on the GOP’s tax-cut messaging, calling them “separate issues.” But GOP lawmakers have acknowledged concern that rising gas prices could make it harder for their party to claim it has made life more affordable for Americans.

Republicans, Malliotakis said, “need to ensure that the spike is only temporary and that we get those prices back down as soon as possible so we have all three: low taxes, affordable gas and a safer nation.”

The threat of rising prices was further underscored by new federal data published Friday showing inflation at its highest level in two years, with energy costs accounting for the bulk of the spike, as well as the collapse of peace talks with Iran over the weekend aimed at restoring oil flows through the Persian Gulf.

Directly tackling the issue, however, is not at the top of the congressional agenda at the moment. The Senate is set to restart debate on a sweeping elections bill most Republican members don’t think can pass, and the House is set to vote on a handful of measures rolling back environment regulations as well as an aviation safety bill and the renaming of several post offices.

House GOP leaders hope the deregulatory effort will help assuage some rank-and-file Republicans who want to do more to address cost-of-living issues ahead of the midterms. But they also have to face a pile of problems that have only grown more pressing in the two weeks since they broke for recess.

Those include a rapidly approaching deadline for the reauthorization of key surveillance powers and the ongoing furor over the Jeffrey Epstein files.

The former issue is caught in an internal GOP dispute between Trump’s wishes and those of conservative hard-liners, while the latter was turbocharged last week after first lady Melania Trump called on Congress to “uncover the truth” and hold a public hearing focused on survivors of the late convicted sex trafficker’s crimes.

Leaders also have to figure out how to deal with bipartisan demands to expel several members accused of personal misconduct — including Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), who is facing sexual assault allegations, and Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who admitted to an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide.

The tax cuts, however, are one issue that has proven able to bring the party together — even as members privately fret over whether that talking point will break through with voters.

“It’s all we have to run on,” said a House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about the party’s messaging. “Do you see us turning out other big-ticket legislation? This is it.”

The congressional GOP is also growing increasingly entangled with the six-week-old Iran war, which stands to cast a long shadow over the party agenda. Both chambers this week will likely be debating and voting on Democratic-led war powers resolutions. While the tentative cease fire has helped calm Republicans’ nerves, the White House is taking firm steps to ensure GOP members stay loyal.

The White House communications office sent talking points on the cease fire to GOP offices last week, arguing Trump had delivered “Peace Through Strength,” though much of that guidance referred to a possibility of a “broader peace agreement” that appeared kaput by Sunday morning.

“What’s left of the Iranian regime is desperate, dejected, and in denial,” the memo said.

But there were almost immediately sharp questions about how durable the cease fire might be, and the key factor in lowering energy prices — restoring the flow of oil and gas through the strait — remained wholly unsettled into the weekend.

Even some Republicans who backed Trump’s decision to strike are skeptical that a long-term peace agreement is within reach.

“Russia and China will help them rebuild their military,” Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska said in an interview. “We are safer today because Iran is significantly weakened. But the government is still in place and that means they’ll threaten us in the long term. We bought time.”

House and Senate Republicans also return to a toxic internal fight over how to end the nearly two-month-old Department of Homeland Security shutdown. House members left town after rejecting a Senate-approved deal funding most of the department, after Speaker Mike Johnson publicly trashed it. He then reversed course, infuriating members who hated the Senate’s two-track plan which leaves immigration enforcement funding for the party-line reconciliation process.

Despite endorsing the plan, Johnson does not intend to move forward on the Senate-approved DHS funding bill this week. The House GOP will instead wait until the Senate makes progress on the bill funding the remainder of the department through the partisan budget reconciliation process, according to four people granted anonymity to describe private plans.

But making progress on that bill is rife with complications. Senate Republicans are charging ahead with a plan not to find spending offsets to pay for the cost of the legislation, which would help keep Democrats from forcing tough Senate votes on a wide variety of hot-button issues as part of the reconciliation process.

But that decision will rankle House GOP fiscal hawks who wanted to include a raft of spending cuts and additional policies beyond immigration enforcement funding.

Some GOP leaders are counting on the possibility of yet another reconciliation bill that could happen later in the year incorporating the remaining items on the GOP wish list. Johnson suggested as much on a tense call with House Republicans over the recess.

That promise is not sitting well with scores of House Republicans who say they’re running out of time to notch GOP wins ahead of the midterms. Many want the next party-line bill to include a multitude of policies aimed at addressing affordability issues weighing on voters, while others want to include tens of billions of dollars for the Iran war the White House requested in its budget blueprint last week.

Johnson is also trying to wrangle a so-far intractable problem: how to extend the spy powers law ahead of its April 20 expiration.

He is planning to put a straight extension of the so-called Section 702 program on the floor this week, as the White House is demanding. But discussions continue with GOP hard-liners who want to vote amendments aimed at protecting American citizens from getting swept up in government surveillance — something that could upend Johnson’s plan.