Congress
Capitol agenda: Megabill heads toward a Senate buzzsaw
Speaker Mike Johnson struck a series of delicate deals to get Republicans’ “big, beautiful bill” through the House. Now, Senate Republicans are threatening to tear them apart.
Despite behind-the-scenes efforts to smooth versions of the bill between chambers and pleas from Johnson to avoid significant changes, the megabill could be in for a major rewrite across the Capitol.
“The Senate will have its imprint on it,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune declared. “They’ve got to do what they can get 218 for, and we’ve got to do what we can get 51 for.”
Here are some of the early fault lines:
MEDICAID FINANCING — There’s a battle brewing between Senate Republicans over the House’s push to freeze the provider tax, which Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.) warned “is a real risk to rural hospitals.”
Who to watch: Sens. Hawley, Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), who have all drawn red lines on Medicaid benefit cuts.
CLEAN-ENERGY CREDITS — House Republicans’ move to speed up sunset dates for several clean-energy tax credits in Democrats’ 2022 climate law is stoking Senate GOP fears that it could have a “chilling effect” on future investments, Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.) told Blue Light News on Thursday.
Who to watch: Sens. Tillis, Murkowski, John Curtis (Utah) and Jerry Moran (Kan.), who recently sent a letter to GOP leadership warning against gutting the credits.
SPENDING CUTS — Some GOP senators openly derided House hard-liners for not securing steeper spending cuts in their version of the megabill (House fiscal hawks mocked them back for thinking they could get more). Thune said he’s aiming for closer to $2 trillion in reductions, above the $1.5 trillion the House passed.
Who to watch: Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.), who’s pushing for a return to pre-pandemic spending levels (a roughly $6 trillion cut). He believes he has the votes to tank the bill if it doesn’t go far enough, pointing to Sens. Mike Lee (Utah), Rick Scott (Fla.) and Rand Paul (Ky.) as allies.
SNAP COST-SHARING — One of the most controversial House provisions is causing plenty of heartburn in the Senate: requiring states to cover a portion of federal food assistance costs for the first time.
Who to watch: Murkowski and fellow Alaskan Dan Sullivan, plus Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Tim Scott (S.C.). Agriculture Chair John Boozman (Ark.) hinted Republicans could face backlash from governors over “how much of an unfunded mandate” the change could create. This comes as a new Congressional Budget Office analysis says increased Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program work requirements could kick 3.2 million people out of the program.
What else we’re watching:
— Senate Dems prepare megabill attacks: Top Senate Democrats will be looking to exploit GOP concerns with Republicans’ megabill, even as they acknowledge they’re all but powerless to stop the party-line push that needs only a simple majority to clear the chamber. “We know that a lot of Republicans on the Senate side are squirmy,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on a Thursday call organized by nonprofit Families Over Billionaires. “We’re going to fight this tooth and nail.”
— The Senate’s megabill process: Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (Miss.) on Thursday cast doubt on the likelihood his committee would meet to vote on the defense spending portion of the Republican megabill. The potential move to bypass an Armed Services vote signals that the Senate may pursue a more informal committee process for the bill than the House, as Republican leaders attempt to get the bill to Trump’s desk by July 4.
— Biden Oversight hearing: House Oversight Chair James Comer (Ky.) is demanding interviews with Joe Biden’s physician and former White House officials as part of his investigation into the former president’s mental decline. The requests, dated Thursday, were sent to Biden’s physician, Kevin O’Connor; former Domestic Policy Council Director Neera Tanden; former senior adviser to the first lady Anthony Bernal; former deputy chief of staff Annie Tomasini; and former deputy director of Oval Office operations Ashley Williams.
Jordain Carney, Hailey Fuchs, Benjamin Guggenheim and Connor O’Brien contributed to this report.
Senate Republicans confirmed dozens of President Donald Trump’s nominees Friday, just before they leave for a five-week congressional recess.
Senators voted 51-47 to approve officials at the Departments of Defense, Energy, State and other agencies.
They included David Cummins to head the Transportation Security Administration, Cameron Hamilton to lead the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Hal Duncan to be OMB deputy director and Francis Brooke to be Treasury deputy secretary. Among the group were several ambassadors, including former Rep. David Brat to be ambassador to Australia.
Senate Republicans changed the chamber’s rules last year to be able to confirm lower-level nominees as a package instead of having to hold a vote on each.
After finishing the expedited procedure Friday, Senate Republicans estimate they will only have a small number of civilian nominees awaiting confirmation.
President Donald Trump said voters may seek to punish Republicans — but not him — in the November midterm elections, as GOP lawmakers sweat that affordability concerns and the war in Iran could mean Democrats flip the House and perhaps even the Senate.
“They’re angry at Republicans,” Trump said in an interview with Punchbowl News that aired Friday. “But they’re not angry at me. They’re not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans.”
The GOP faces the prospect of heavy losses this November, as gas and grocery prices remain stubbornly high due in part to the White House’s five-month-long war in Iran. The administration’s guidance on campaign trail messaging has been “tone deaf,” House Republicans fear.
Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating has tumbled since he returned to the Oval Office last year, and even his biggest supporters have grown frustrated over his Middle East war.
And with a messy, jam-packed slate of primaries now all but in the rearview mirror, Democrats are determined to go on offense. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has 58 seats on its midterm target map that stretches into redder territory — while still facing an uphill climb to take the Senate.
Trump has a massive war chest at his disposal. His MAGA Inc. super PAC reached $400 million in June. The president told Punchbowl he plans to use it to “help Republicans,” but he stressed that he faces no pressure in this campaign cycle.
“I said to somebody, ‘Wait a minute, you don’t understand, I won,’” Trump said, referencing his 2024 presidential election victory. “I’m not campaigning.”
The biggest issue for Republicans this year? That Trump himself is not on the ballot, he said.
“If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote? And that’s the one thing I can’t tell, I’m going to ask them to,” he said.
The Senate’s plan to get out of town is coming together.
Majority Leader John Thune teed up a final vote on the Russia sanctions legislation for this morning, as well as a confirmation vote for dozens of nominees and a procedural step on a stopgap funding bill.
But there’s still a number of questions that need to be answered if Thune wants to adjourn for recess by the end of the day:
— BLANCHE’S FATE: President Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general needs to secure at least one more vote to be confirmed before the break.
It looks like it’s all up to Sen. Bill Cassidy after Sen. Lisa Murkowski announced Friday morning she is opposed. Thune indicated Thursday night Blanche’s fate was uncertain and that leaders were “still working to get the final vote.”
— SAVE AMERICA ACT: Thune said to expect a vote related to the SAVE America Act as well as an initial vote on a budget blueprint for a third party-line spending bill — which includes elements of Trump’s election security legislation.
The decision to hold the budget vote comes after two Republican senators, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Blue Light News Thursday they believed Sen. Mike Lee or another member of the GOP’s right flank would have otherwise forced a vote on the framework.
But as we’ve previously reported, Republicans don’t believe the budget resolution has the votes within the conference to be adopted — meaning the expected initial vote today will fail to clear a simple majority threshold.
And it’s not clear Lee or like-minded senators will be satisfied and allow for lawmakers to adjourn for recess without more action on the elections measure. The senator has made similar threats over the past year but has never followed through.
— TIME AGREEMENT: GOP leaders need to strike an agreement to finish other business, including passing the stopgap government funding bill and advancing a college sports bill.
At this point, any single senator could still object to expediting the chamber’s agenda, which would derail Thune’s goal of getting members out of town by the end of the day.
“We’ve been having these conversations with Democrats trying to figure out what’s the path,” Thune said.
“We’ll see how it goes,” he added.
What else we’re watching:
— GOP EXPECTS CRYPTO BILL DELAY: The Senate will leave for the chamber’s August recess without holding a vote on a landmark cryptocurrency bill, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Thune may still file cloture on the bill, but it likely won’t come to the floor until lawmakers return to Washington next month, two of the people said.
— COLLEGE SPORTS BILL STUMBLES: Sens. Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell’s legislation to impose new guardrails on college sports is looking increasingly unlikely to hit the floor this week. Eleven senators objected to expedited consideration of the Protect College Sports Act after Thune filed cloture earlier this week, two people familiar with discussions told Blue Light News.
— OGLES OUSTED: GOP House leaders lost an incumbent — and a perennial headache — with Rep. Andy Ogles’ primary defeat in Tennessee Thursday night. His loss to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher represents the second Trump-endorsed candidate to lose a primary this week.
Jordain Carney, Mia McCarthy, Andrew Howard and Jacob Wendler contributed to this report.
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