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Capitol agenda: Johnson’s shutdown dare for Schumer

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Mike Johnson to Chuck Schumer on government funding: Your move.

House Republicans are pushing a not-so-clean spending patch through September that would add billions of dollars for deportations, veterans’ health care and the military — and cut $13 billion in funding for non-defense programs. The speaker is planning to put the stopgap, known as a continuing resolution or a CR, on the floor Tuesday, and then send members home for recess before the Senate can send back any changes.

Johnson is hoping to get the CR through the House without relying on Democratic votes (House Democratic leaders reaffirmed Saturday that they’re a “no”). President Donald Trump is publicly pushing GOP lawmakers to fall in line, but Johnson’s still got a few Republican holdouts. Rep. Thomas Massie is a no. And we’re keeping an eye on Reps. Tony Gonzales, who said Sunday on BLN that he’ll make a “game-time decision;” Brian Fitzpatrick, who told CBS he’s undecided; and Cory Mills, who is also on the fence.

But the spending patch can’t get through the Senate without the help of at least eight Democrats, given expected opposition from GOP Sen. Rand Paul. And that’s putting Schumer in a bind.

The Senate minority leader and his House counterpart are both under pressure from within their party to do more to stop Trump and Elon Musk’s unilateral cuts to federal programs. Hakeem Jeffries’ caucus can likely oppose the spending patch en masse without prompting a shutdown, but Schumer doesn’t have the same cover. Senate Democrats will have to decide whether they’ll push back on Trump and force a shutdown, or stand down to keep the government running. Johnson’s already trying to cast any lapse in funding as a “Chuck Schumer shutdown.”

Some Senate Democrats seemed open last week to supporting a clean CR. But Sen. Patty Murray, the top Democrat on Senate Appropriations, slammed House Republicans’ weekend proposal as a “slush fund” that would give Trump and Musk “more power over federal spending.” She continued to call for a shorter spending patch to give appropriators time to finish the full funding bills — an outcome also favored by Murray’s GOP counterpart, Sen. Susan Collins.

And swing-state Sen. Elissa Slotkin told NBC News she’d “withhold” her vote unless she gets “assurances that whatever we pass … is going to ensure that the money is spent the way Congress intends.”

What else we’re watching:

  • Tax Talk: House Ways and Means Republicans will meet today to start drafting the tax portion of the GOP’s party-line bill. The session is expected to last all day and will be followed by a second meeting on Wednesday. Committee members will have to hash out how to extend Trump’s expiring tax cuts in addition to fulfilling Trump’s campaign promises like no taxes on tips or overtime. 
  • Rules: The Rules Committee will have a hearing on advancing the stopgap funding bill and other legislation at 4 p.m. It’s expected to clear the panel, setting up a vote on the spending bill on Tuesday.

Meredith Lee Hill and Benjamin Guggenheim contributed to this report.

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Hegseth to brief House Republicans on White House goals for party-line package

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to give a classified briefing Wednesday to a group of House Republicans about the administration’s goals for military funding and another party-line reconciliation bill, according to three people granted anonymity to describe a private meeting.

The gathering will take place during the Republican Study Committee’s weekly lunch and be held in the House SCIF, underscoring the potentially sensitive nature of Hegseth’s planned presentation.

Lawmakers are expected to also press Hegseth on the agreement the Trump administration has reached with Iran to end the war.

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Turek leads Hinson in Iowa Senate poll of likely general election voters

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Iowa Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek has a narrow lead over GOP rival Ashley Hinson in a new internal poll of likely general-election voters.

Turek leads Hinson 47 percent to 45 percent in the poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group from June 8-11 among 1,000 likely general election voters. The poll shows that Republicans have a 10-point edge in voter registration (42 percent to 32 percent) and an electorate that voted for Trump by 9 points (50 percent for Trump to 41 percent for Kamala Harris).

But the polling also shows President Donald Trump’s favorabilities underwater across the electorate, with 45 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable. Among registered independents, Trump is upside down 28 points.

Turek is “significantly outperforming the state’s underlying partisan dynamics,” Global Strategy Group’s Matt Canter & Ramzi Ebbini write in a memo first obtained by Blue Light News. “Republicans maintain substantial advantages in voter registration and party identification, yet Turek enters the general election ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson, with stronger personal favorability ratings, overperforming a generic Democrat, and with clear opportunities to expand his coalition as more voters become familiar with him.”

Some Republicans have acknowledged a concern about Iowa.

“There are some issues there that we got to deal with — the biggest one is trade — trade and tariffs,” said a Republican close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the obstacles.

In his early general election messaging, Turek has leaned into farmers’ frustrations.

“Josh Turek is winning this race because Iowans are sick and tired of multi-millionaire politicians like Ashley Hinson who sell out working families while they get rich,” Turek for Iowa campaign manager Brendan Koch said in a statement first shared with Blue Light News. “We will spend the next 134 days connecting with Iowans in every corner of the state and across the political spectrum to send a fighter for the working class to the U.S. Senate.”

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Capitol agenda: House GOP races to make Recon 3.0 real

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House Republicans have eight days to prove Reconciliation 3.0 might actually happen.

The House returns Tuesday with only eight legislative days before they break again for the July 4 holiday. If members want a realistic chance at fulfilling their self-imposed timeline for advancing the legislation before the end of July — when they pause work again for another five weeks — they need to move fast.

That means assembling, and then adopting, a budget resolution — the first step in unlocking the filibuster skirting power of the reconciliation process. It took Republicans months to advance such a blueprint during their two earlier reconciliation efforts this Congress.

House GOP leaders are tentatively planning another senior-level reconciliation meeting for Wednesday, according to three people involved in the talks granted anonymity to discuss private plans.

Still, the House is coming back with several other moving items to deal with this week, including promised briefings on the president’s Iran deal and a major housing affordability package GOP leadership wants to clear as soon as Wednesday.

Reconciliation talks also come as President Donald Trump is expected to join the Senate’s GOP lunch Wednesday, where he’ll likely continue pushing the chamber to pass his SAVE America Act or attach pieces of the GOP elections bill to the party-line legislation (an idea one of the bill’s biggest backers, Sen. Mike Lee, spiked Sunday).

Republicans involved with Reconciliation 3.0 discussions also warn they need to reach a final agreement on how to pay for the bill as well as what policy items will be included before GOP leaders can try to advance any budget resolution.

At this point, however, many fiscal hawks and at-risk incumbents are largely unhappy about how the discussions are coming along.

“It’s fake pay-fors for defense spending no one has fully agreed to and no meaningful reforms,” said one House Republican granted anonymity to discuss private talks.

Back on the other side of the Capitol, GOP senators have been in no rush to start working on a third party-line bill, especially as they are consumed with other political fires — like trying to confirm Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence to speed up a FISA reauthorization (more on that below).

Rep. Morgan Griffith said he was confident if the right policies are included in the House plan the Senate would then take it up — although he, too, acknowledged the challenges of a short timeline.

“If we do it right, yeah,” Griffith said. “There’s some interesting things out there that are being discussed that could make it a real possibility.”

What else we’re watching: 

— OBAMA’S FEROCIOUS IRAN CRITIC SOFTER ON TRUMP DEAL: Tom Cotton, the No. 3 Senate Republican and chair of the chamber’s Intelligence panel, is not alone among GOP defense hawks in finding himself in an awkward position trying to defend Trump’s Iran deal after lambasting President Barack Obama’s a decade before. But the combination of his prior ferocity toward the Iranian regime and his current leadership responsibilities have put him into an especially tight spot.

— FIRST IN IC: DEMS WANT MORE OF JACK SMITH’S REPORT: Senate Judiciary Democrats are asking a federal court to unseal part of former special counsel Jack Smith’s report about his investigation into Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents after his first term. The request from the Senators comes as the Judiciary Committee is poised to call Smith to testify about his Biden-era cases before the end of this Congress. Republicans in the House and Senate have been investigating Smith’s work, alleging it amounted to a weaponization of the federal government against the then ex-president.

Jordain Carney and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.

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