Congress
Capitol agenda: Johnson warns about a Medicaid backlash
With President Donald Trump’s July 4 deadline drawing near, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Blue Light News Tuesday night he believes the Senate is “on a path” to start voting on the megabill Friday.
But he’s got several fires to put out first. For one, he’s under immense pressure to water down the Medicaid provisions the Senate GOP is counting on for hundreds of billions of dollars worth of savings.
Speaker Mike Johnson is warning in private that Senate Republicans could cost House Republicans their majority next year if they try to push through the deep Medicaid cuts in the current Senate version, according to three people granted anonymity to describe the matter.
That comes as Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) cautions GOP senators that those same cutbacks could become a political albatross for Republicans just as the Affordable Care Act was for Democrats.
“[Barack] Obama said … ‘if you like your health care you can keep it, if you like your doctor we can keep it,’ and yet we had several million people lose their health care,” the in-cycle senator told reporters Tuesday. “Here we’re saying [with] Medicaid, we’re going to hold people harmless, but we’re estimating” millions of people could lose coverage.
GOP leaders are trying to ease concerns by preparing to include a fund to help rural hospitals that could be harmed by the reductions, even as Thune insisted Tuesday “we like where we are.” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who’s been pushing for the fund, said while that “helps lessen the impact,” she remains “concerned about the changes in the funding for Medicaid in general.”
The other drama hanging over the bill are several imminent, critical rulings from Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough. Several committees that already have rulings in hand are due to release revised text as soon as this morning, according to a person familiar with the plans. And Republicans could know as soon as Wednesday whether MacDonough will clear major parts of their tax package.
As of late Tuesday, the parliamentarian had not yet ruled on provisions linked to the so-called current policy baseline, an accounting maneuver that zeroes out the costs of $3.8 trillion of expiring tax cuts, according to two people granted anonymity to disclose the private discussions.
Make no mistake: Adverse rulings could send Republicans back to the drawing board on making their tax plan permanent, or otherwise force them to go nuclear and override or ignore MacDonough altogether. There’s uncertainty from all sides about how that would play out, given the gambit has never been tried before with tax legislation.
This much is already clear: With the tax package in flux and Medicaid savings under threat, GOP leaders have a major math problem on their hands. And House fiscal hawks are watching to see, regardless of the accounting method, whether the Senate sticks to the budget deal they agreed to with Johnson earlier this year.
What else we’re watching:
— Bove on Blue Light News: Senate Judiciary lawmakers will convene the first blockbuster judicial hearing of the second Trump administration later Wednesday, where they will grill Emil Bove, a top Justice Department official and former criminal defense lawyer for Trump who has a shot at a lifetime appointment on the federal bench. Some even see him as a potential future Trump Supreme Court nominee.
— Vought testifies on rescissions: OMB Director Russ Vought will testify in front of the Senate’s full bench of appropriators Wednesday afternoon to justify the White House’s request for $9.4 billion in cuts of previously-approved money. Expect pointed questioning from various Republicans on the panel, including Collins, who has publicly opposed cuts to PEPFAR, the HIV and AIDS foreign aid program.
— Iran briefings incoming: Senators will have a postponed briefing on the situation in Iran on Thursday, after which Democrat Tim Kaine (Va.) is aiming to call a vote on his resolution seeking to block further U.S. military action against Iran. On the House side, Speaker Johnson said that members will now be briefed on Friday. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Tuesday there had been no Gang of Eight meeting yet.
Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.
House Republicans have advanced a bill that would prohibit members of Congress and their family members from trading on certain Washington-focused prediction markets.
The House Administration Committee’s GOP members on Wednesday voted along party lines in favor of the legislation, which proposes to bar lawmakers, their spouses and their dependent children from participating on prediction markets that are based on the outcome of elections or government actions.
It marks the latest in Capitol Hill’s efforts to curb the threat of insider trading on the prediction markets — a risk that has burst into the spotlight in recent months after a series of well-timed trades around the capture of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Google’s search results and the Iran war. Earlier this year, the Senate banned its members and their staffs from trading on the prediction markets altogether, effective immediately.
And yet, the House Administration Committee vote also revealed a fracture within the House over how far to go in clamping down on lawmakers’ use of the prediction markets. Democrats opposed the bill, saying it didn’t go far enough, while Republicans supported it.
Rep. Joe Morelle of New York, who is the committee’s top Democrat, argued that the legislation is “so filled with loopholes that it looks more like a sieve than a bill.” Instead of passing such a bill, he said the House should follow the Senate’s lead and approve a new and broader resolution aimed at prediction market use among members and their staffs.
“The Senate did it in a matter of minutes — no six-month grace period, no procedurally laborious process,” Morelle said. “They just went to the floor with a two-page resolution and banned it all unanimously. We should do the same.”
House Administration Chair Bryan Steil, who introduced the bill, hit back at his Democratic counterpart’s concerns by questioning why members’ families shouldn’t be allowed to bet on sports through the prediction markets — but can through sportsbooks or casinos.
The Wisconsin Republican pointed to a hypothetical scenario where a member’s child is at college and bets on a sporting event through a prediction market platform. That situation, he said, could be covered by a broader prohibition.
Steil, rather, said his bill is aimed at addressing public policy- and election-focused markets.
“Lawmakers elect to serve the American people, not to enrich themselves by wagering on outcomes from the decisions they make,” he said. “We have a real opportunity to restore trust in Congress by taking necessary steps to eliminate even the appearance of impropriety.”
House Republican leaders canceled plans to advance a procedural measure Wednesday that would set up passage of two fiscal 2027 appropriations bills and other legislation this week, according to three people granted anonymity to describe the decision ahead of a public announcement.
The decision comes amid pressure from GOP hard-liners to prioritize passage of the SAVE America Act, a Republican elections bill that has stalled in the Senate — and after President Donald Trump refused to sign a high-profile bipartisan housing bill passed Tuesday, also in a bid to get the elections bill moving.
Speaker Mike Johnson and other leaders are expected to keep members in Washington for now while they determine next steps, the people said.
Hours after Democratic socialist candidates swept to victory in New York primary races, Republicans celebrated those victories as a boon for their own party as it struggles against headwinds from the Iran war and cost of living issues ahead of the November midterms.
Inside a closed-door House GOP meeting Wednesday morning, the head of the Republican campaign arm said the victories of candidates backed by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani offered an opportunity for GOP House candidates to draw a sharp contrast.
Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina said “Democrats have a Bolshevik revolution going on in their primaries,” according to three people in the room granted anonymity to discuss the private event.
Speaker Mike Johnson also delivered remarks to Republicans setting the stakes of the election after the “radical” left-wing wins and urging Republicans to dig in and raise money to defeat Democrats this fall. He received a standing ovation, the people in the room said.
Hudson said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will take the socialists’ wins as a sign he needs to navigate further to the left. There will be no cooperation with Republicans, he added.
Other Republicans publicly seized on the left-wing triumphs Wednesday, including Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio — who said “the lesson is clear: if Republicans don’t act now, we will lose this country as we know it.”
“We need to be clear about what we stand for,” he wrote on X. “Closed borders, secure elections, economic prosperity for all Americans, and, most of all, proudly protecting the American way of life against socialism.”
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