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Capitol agenda: GOP struggles on affordability message

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The Senate is set to vote Thursday on whether to extend Obamacare health insurance subsidies that expire in 23 days. How Republicans will engage remains up in the air, as the party struggles more broadly to reach consensus on a range of “affordability” issues.

Here’s where things stand heading into the big vote.

The Senate GOP’s missing plan — Senate Democrats are poised to get a vote on a three-year extension of Affordable Care Act tax credits — a bill that will likely fail. Republicans are leaning against holding a separate vote on their own alternative as they face internal divisions over what to put forward. The decision isn’t final, and some Republicans could try to advance proposals via unanimous consent.

Mysterious House action — Speaker Mike Johnson surprised a number of Republicans last Thursday when he said he planned to roll out a health care framework in time to present to his conference by early this week. The House GOP strategy is expected to be a major topic of discussion during a retreat of committee staff directors and leadership staff that wraps tonight in Boston. The House Republican plan is likely to encompass bills that committees have been working on to boost health care options beyond the ACA — not an extension of Obamacare subsidies.

The big picture on the GOP and affordability — Republicans’ struggle over how to address the expiring ACA subsidies — a lapse that would raise health premiums for millions of Americans — is representative of broader GOP floundering over how to decisively respond to cost-of-living concerns ahead of the midterms.

Beyond health care, the Trump administration’s proposal to distribute $2,000 rebate checks has gotten a lukewarm response on Blue Light News, and intraparty sparring has weighed on other smaller bills to address things like housing costs and student debt. Top Republicans acknowledge they haven’t done enough to sell the economic benefits of the “one big, beautiful bill,” and internal divisions threaten any attempt to follow up on it.

Just this weekend, congressional leaders released a compromise version of the annual National Defense Authorization Act without housing legislation sought by Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), after House Financial Services Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) and other key House Republicans objected.

President Donald Trump himself has recently called the emphasis on affordability a “hoax” perpetrated by Democrats, even as 37 percent of those who voted for him last year say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can remember it being, according to a new POLITICO Poll.

“We haven’t probably messaged as effectively as we should,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview. “I think we’ll have lots of opportunities now that we’re getting into an election year to talk about the things we’ve done and how they are going to lead to things being more affordable for the American people, probably starting with tax relief next year.”

What else we’re watching:   

— NDAA on track for House vote this week: Compromise NDAA text is out and House GOP leaders are targeting a floor vote Thursday or Friday. The first stop is a Rules Committee hearing, which could come as early as Tuesday.

— Government funding action: House GOP leaders are eyeing putting at least one appropriations bill if not two on the floor next week, right before they leave for the holiday recess. One senior House Republican says Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and other appropriators are expected to lean on leadership in the coming days.

Jordain Carney, Benjamin Guggenheim, Meredith Lee Hill, Jasper Goodman, Connor O’Brien and Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.

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Congress

Bill Foster cools on challenging Maxine Waters

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Rep. Bill Foster is leaning against challenging Rep. Maxine Waters for the top Democratic spot on the House Financial Services Committee, according to two people with knowledge of his thinking who were granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

The Illinois Democrat has been considering a bid to topple Waters but has not made a final decision, the people said. The timeline for him doing so is unclear.

Democratic Rep. Sean Casten, also from Illinois, told Waters earlier this month that he plans to run against her, likely teeing up a major fight over the Financial Services role, which the California Democrat has held since 2013.

Most Financial Services Democrats on the committee have publicly backed Waters for the role.

Foster, who was first elected in 2008, previously discussed with Waters ways to reform the committee that would give subcommittee chairs more power to shape the panel’s agenda. A physicist with a doctorate, Foster is currently the top Democrat on a House Financial Services Financial Institutions Subcommittee.

A Foster spokesperson declined to comment.

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Senate Democrats’ top super PAC spends in South Carolina for the first time

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Senate Democrats’ top super PAC is pushing into South Carolina — just five days before the election.

Senate Majority PAC is putting $750,000 into digital ads to boost Democrat Annie Andrews, who they see as in an increasingly competitive position against GOP Sen. Darline Graham. The first spot could air as soon as Friday, and is set to attack Graham over rising costs and position Andrews as a fighter against corruption, according to plans shared first with Blue Light News.

The Chuck Schumer-aligned group’s investment comes as public polling shows a tightening race in the closing stretch. Republicans say they’re confident in Graham’s ability to hold the seat, in part because the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund recently pledged to spend at least $5 million in the race. President Donald Trump has already held two rallies in the state to boost his hand-picked senator.

“South Carolina is tightening, and Republicans know it — you don’t send $5 million and the president to a state if you’re not nervous,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement.

“Darline Graham is an empty suit who was handed a Senate seat and has no idea what to do with it,” French added. “Annie Andrews will lower costs on gas, groceries, insurance, and housing. In a race this close, a late infusion of cash can make the difference, and that’s why we’re in.”

Representatives for Andrews and Graham did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the investment.

Even with the extensive outside support, Graham’s campaign has been weighed down by voter fatigue after several contentious primaries, questions about her political inexperience and an increasingly difficult national environment for Republicans.

The South Carolina spending marks Democrats’ newest late-stage push into deep-red Senate races as they look to leverage Americans’ frustrations with the cost of living and Trump’s agenda to keep expanding the map. If Andrews wins next week, it would mark the first time South Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.

Strong showings by former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia have allowed SMP to draw down its spending in those erstwhile battlegrounds while pumping millions of dollars into traditionally red territory like Texas, Kansas and Mississippi.

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Oklahoma’s next senator can be seated immediately after election, state AG rules

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The winner of next week’s Oklahoma Senate race will be able to take office immediately after the election, effectively ending Republican Sen. Alan Armstrong’s appointment before the current session of the Senate concludes, the state attorney general ruled on Thursday.

Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond’s ruling on Thursday could pave the way for Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), the heavy favorite in the race and a Trump ally, to be seated by early November.

Armstrong, a former energy executive, was appointed in March to temporarily fill the seat vacated by Markwayne Mullin, now Department of Homeland Security secretary.

Both Armstrong and Hern submitted memorandums to the state attorney general’s office in disagreement over when Armstrong’s appointment ends, with Hern arguing he should be able to take office before the beginning of the next Congress.

“Oklahoma law and the U.S. Constitution point to the same answer: the voters fill this seat,” Drummond said in a statement. “Oklahomans will choose their next senator at the polls on Nov. 3, and that person will be eligible to take office once the election is certified. This opinion gives the Governor and the Legislature clear guidance on how to proceed.”

This November’s election is for a full six-year term in the Senate. Mullin, a former member of the House, initially won a 2022 special election to complete the term of the Sen. Jim Inhofe, who retired early in January 2023.

Armstrong was not a candidate to replace Mullin; Oklahoma law bars Senate appointees from seeking election to a full term.

Drummond’s formal opinion, addressed to Gov. Kevin Stitt and Oklahoma state Senate President pro tempore Lonnie Paxton, effectively sides with Hern and points to a state statute, which directs the governor to appoint a person “to serve in such office until a successor is elected.”

“The Governor has no discretion to decline or delay certifying the election,” Drummond added.

A spokesperson for Armstrong’s office said they are reviewing the state attorney general’s opinion, and “in the meantime, Senator Armstrong’s full focus remains on passing comprehensive permitting reform to lower utility prices, grow the economy, and get America building again.”

Hern did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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