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The Dictatorship

Biden isn’t escalating the war in Ukraine — he’s doing the right thing

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Biden isn’t escalating the war in Ukraine — he’s doing the right thing

This week, President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to strike inside Russia using longer-range American missiles. It’s an overdue, relatively small escalation after Russia’s bigger escalations and relentless attacks, letting Ukraine partially take the gloves off. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially requested this in May, and presumably asked in private before that. It will help Ukraine hinder Russia’s war machine by striking ammunition depots, weapons manufacturing, airfields and other military targets.

The apparent cause is the U.S. election. President-elect Donald Trump has long shown a strong affinity for Russian leader Vladimir Putinand reacted to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 by gushingly calling it “savvy” and “genius.” In subsequent years, Trump, his incoming Vice President-elect JD Vance and top surrogate/donor/adviser Elon Musk have all advocated a “peace plan” for Ukraine that amounts to “give Putin what he wants.” While Biden’s lifting restrictions on Ukraine is probably too late to make a big difference, it could cause some disruption to Russia’s war effort and improve Ukraine’s position before Trump tries to force them into a Russia-friendly deal.

It’s an overdue, relatively small escalation after Russia’s bigger escalations and relentless attacks, letting Ukraine partially take the gloves off.

Knowing that the United States is about to have a pro-Putin president makes Biden’s caution look awful in hindsight, but it looked excessive at the time as well. Caution made sense early in the war, since we didn’t have a good read on Russian capabilities. And keeping NATO forces out of direct combat with Russia still makes sense, since that could trigger an escalatory spiral that spins out of control, or at least undermine political support for Ukraine in NATO countries. But in early 2024, after two years of war, it was apparent Russia was doing everything it could think of to defeat Ukraine, and wasn’t keeping a large military capacity in reserve.

Except, of course, for nuclear weapons, but those are checked by mutually assured destruction and the global nuclear taboo. Russia fears World War III, just like everyone else, as well as alienating the large countries it still gets along with, namely China and India. Russia has never attacked weapons shipments on their way to Ukraine, showing that no matter their rhetoric, their actions respect NATO deterrence. By contrast, Israel has bombed Hezbollah-bound weapons shipments inside Syria for years.

But Russia bluffs a lot. They annexed occupied parts of Ukraine, and declared that any counterattack would cause nuclear war. Ukrainian forces kept coming, took some territory back, and Russia did little in response.

They convinced Elon Musk that a Ukrainian attack on Russian ships off the coast of Crimea would cause WWIII, and Musk cut off Starlink internet services to thwart a Ukrainian sea drone attack in progress. Shortly after, Ukraine hit Russian ships near Crimea without using Starlink, and Russia did little in response.

Ukraine has used U.S.-provided missiles to attack Russian military targets in occupied parts of Ukraine. They’ve used Ukrainian-made drones to attack inside Russia, including an airbase nearly 2,000 kilometer (about 1,243 miles) from the Ukrainian border. In response, Russia didn’t do anything it wasn’t already doing.

There is a possibility that longer-range strikes with U.S. missiles would require U.S. satellites for targeting, but since Russia didn’t offer a response to U.S. missile strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine or Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, it’s unlikely that Ukrainian strikes with U.S. missiles inside Russia represents such a red line that they’d risk everything over it.

As a matter of international law, Ukraine using U.S. missiles to attack inside Russia is cut-and-dry. Russia started the war without provocation, and could stop at any time but chooses to continue. As the clear aggressor, Russia is in material breach of the U.N. charter, and under the right of self-defense, Ukraine is legally allowed to fire at Russian military targets, including inside Russia.

And Russia is responsible for a much bigger escalation this year, with thousands of North Korean troops joining their war effort. Russia had already been using Iran-provided drones and North Korea-provided artillery shells in Ukrainemuch as Ukraine is using weapons from NATO countries. But the North Korean troops are the only foreign state forces to directly intervene.

It’s unlikely that Ukrainian strikes with U.S. missiles inside Russia represents such a red line that they’d risk everything over it.

After Biden’s announcement and Ukraine’s first use, Russia launched a new ballistic missile at the densely populated Ukrainian city of Dnipro, which Putin claimed was in retaliation for Ukraine shooting American (and British) missiles into Russia. It reportedly injured at least three people and damaged some buildings. The Ukrainians are unsurprisingly shrugging, since Russia shoots missiles, kamikaze drones and glide bombs at them every night, usually causing more damage. Two days before the ballistic missile attack, Russian drones killed 12 civilians and injured 13 more.

So while the missile technically represents an escalation, it’s mostly more of the same: attacking Ukrainians in an attempt to terrorize them into submission. For mourners, the weapon Russia used to kill their loved ones doesn’t matter. And if Russia could use these weapons to defeat the Ukrainian military and enable Russian ground forces to overrun the country, they would.

The new weapon is an intermediate range (about 620 miles to 1,860 miles) ballistic missile called an Oreshnik, capable of carrying nuclear warheads (though this one wasn’t), and was at least as much nuclear saber-rattling against the West as an attack on Ukraine. For that reason, Russia probably would’ve used it anyway at some point, finding some excuse. There’s no intimidation factor from a new weapon if you don’t show it off.

A day after the launch, Putin announced that Russia will mass produce the Oreshnik, and develop a “whole line” of similar missiles. That’s mostly a bluff, at least in the short term, since Russian defense manufacturing is already strained trying to feed the war in Ukraine, but it does represent yet another nuclear threat.

The response has to be a hard no. The U.S. has nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, too, and Russia knows it. Giving in to these sort of threats shows that nuclear extortion works, encouraging more.

If the West bends now, and later tries to take a stand, that raises the risk of an accidental spiral, because the earlier acquiescence could make Russia think that if it goes closer to the brink, the West will back down again. Calling the bluff is nerve-wracking, but a necessary strategic choice.

Russia’s loud rhetoric — but relatively small action in response to Ukraine’s attack inside Russia with U.S. missiles — suggests that this red line was always fake. The ability never would’ve handed Ukraine victory on its own, but it would have improved their military position. If Trump cuts U.S. aid to Ukraine and pushes them to surrender to Russia as expected, Biden’s hesitancy to authorize it will go down in history as a painful what-if.

Nicholas Grossman

Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”

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The Dictatorship

What to know about the ‘equal time’ rule and Colbert’s Talarico interview

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What to know about the ‘equal time’ rule and Colbert’s Talarico interview

Stephen Colbert’s comments that network executives pulled his interview with Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico over fears it would violate regulatory guidance from the Trump administration has prompted a conversation about the rules governing how media outlets treat political coverage.

The concern about the interviewwhich the late-night host referenced in his Monday night show and later posted in full online, stems from a requirement that broadcast stations give equal time to political candidates when they appear on-air.

Although there are multiple exemptions to the provision, the Trump administration through the Federal Communications Commission — which regulates the nation’s airwaves — has been moving to clamp down specifically on programs like Colbert’s, which the agency has suggested may be “motivated by partisan purposes.”

“He was supposed to be here, but we were told in no uncertain terms by our network’s lawyers, who called us directly, that we could not have him on the broadcast,” Colbert said on his program, ”The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.”

In a statement issued Tuesday, CBS said Colbert’s show “was provided legal guidance that the broadcast could trigger the FCC equal-time rule for two other candidates” in the March 3 Democratic primary, “and presented options for how the equal time for other candidates could be fulfilled.” Thereafter, the network noted, it was decided “to present the interview through its YouTube channel with on-air promotion on the broadcast rather than potentially providing the equal-time options.”

Talarico, a critic of President Donald Trump, posted a nearly minute-long clip of his interview with Colbert on X and called it “the interview Donald Trump didn’t want you to see.”

What does equal time mean?

The Communications Act of 1934, the wide-ranging legislation that for nearly a century has broadly governed use of the nation’s airwaves, includes a provision that applies specifically to coverage of political candidates. If a station gives airtime to one candidate, then the same station must offer comparable time to other candidates competing in the given contest, should they ask for it.

It also delves into campaign advertising airtime sold by stations and networks. If a station sells airtime to one candidate, then it also has to offer to sell the same amount of time to other candidates for the same office.

There are exceptions to this rule, including newscasts, “bona fide” interview programs, coverage of live events or documentaries. But if candidates host TV shows or appear in non-news, entertainment programming, that does trigger the provision.

Equal time also only applies to broadcast television and radio. So pieces on cable, streaming services or social media aren’t included.

How the Trump administration has treated equal time

The rule requiring networks to give equal time to political candidates hasn’t traditionally been applied to talk shows, but the Trump administration has made moves to change that.

In January, the Federal Communications Commission issued new guidance warning late-night and daytime hosts that they need to give political candidates equal time, with FCC Chairman Brendan Carr questioning the talk show exemption and positing that hosts were “motivated by partisan purposes.”

“The FCC has not been presented with any evidence that the interview portion of any late night or daytime television talk show program on air presently would qualify for the bona fide news exemption,” according to the public notice.

FCC eyes talk shows like ‘The View’

The notice also said that television networks would need to apply for exemptions for individual programs.

In his comments, Colbert noted that the equal time provision applies to broadcast but not streaming platforms. Subsequently, his nearly 15-minute interview with Talarico was posted to the YouTube page for Colbert’s show, with the host noting specifically that the segment was only appearing online and not on broadcast.

Carr, appointed by Trump to lead the agency last year, has often criticized network talk shows, suggesting last year that probing ABC’s “The View” — whose hosts have frequently been critical of Trump — over the exemption might be “worthwhile.”

The FCC did not immediately respond to messages seeking comment Tuesday.

What about the Fairness Doctrine?

Created by the FCC in 1949, this rule mandated that broadcasters present contrasting viewpoints when covering publicly important and controversial issues. Unlike the equal time provision of the Communications Act, this was an FCC rule, not a law.

It didn’t apply specifically to political candidates, but topics. The U.S. Supreme Court upheld the doctrine on a First Amendment challenge in 1969, with the court writing that the limited availability of broadcast spectrum justified regulation.

In 1987, the FCC repealed the rule, arguing that spectrum scarcity was no longer an issue, and then-President Ronald Reagan vetoed Congress’ attempt to codify it into law.

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Associated Press reporter David Bauder contributed to this report.

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Kinnard can be reached at http://x.com/MegKinnardAP

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The Dictatorship

Trump administration backs Kalshi, Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets

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Trump administration backs Kalshi, Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets

NEW YORK (AP) — The Trump administration is throwing its support behind the prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in a critical legal battle between the growing prediction market industry and states that wish to ban these platforms.

The move by Michael Selig, the recently appointed chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, could have enormous implications for how sports betting is regulated in the country and, if Kalshi and Polymarket were to prevail, could erode the ability for states to effectively regulate gambling.

Any friendly decision the CFTC makes on this industry could end up financially benefiting the president’s family as well. President Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., has invested in Polymarket through his venture capital firm and is a strategic advisor for Kalshi.

The CFTC currently regulates prediction markets, and that federal oversight allows Kalshi and others to operate in all 50 states, even those where gambling is illegal. Several states have sued Polymarket and Kalshi, alleging that the companies effectively operate casino or gambling operations in violation of state gambling laws, and have ordered them to shut down or stop operating in their states.

In an opinion piece in the The Wall Street Journal, Selig wrote, “The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products.”

Polymarket and Kalshi and other prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts tied to the probable outcome of an event. Customers can wager on everything from whether it will rain in Los Angeles tomorrow to who will in the NBA championship to whether the U.S. and Iran will go to war. The contracts are typically priced between one cent and 99 cents, which roughly translates into what percentage of those customers believe that event will happen.

While customers can bet on anything, roughly 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume goes toward wagers on sports, while roughly half of Polymarket’s trading is tied to sports. Kalshi said it saw more than $1 billion in volume trade on the Superbowl.

The biggest of the lawsuits comes from Nevada, where the Nevada Gaming Control Board sued or issued enforcement actions against Kalshi and Polymarket, saying they are operating unlicensed sports betting operations in the state. A federal judge agreed with the NGCB and issued a temporary restraining order against Kalshi from operating in the state.

In response, Kalshi has appealed the case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit, which is why the CFTC is weighing in through what is known as a “friend of the court” briefing.

As the regulator of commodities, futures and derivatives, the CFTC has historically overseen markets like oil futures, agricultural products, gold, and other financial products. At roughly 700 employees, the CFTC is much smaller than the Securities and Exchange Commission, with roughly 5,000 employees. But as the CFTC has become the favored regulator of cryptocurrency companies and prediction markets proponents, it has taken on a much larger role in financial markets in the last five years.

By stepping into the lawsuit, the Trump administration is taking an unusually broad definition of commodities and futures. Selig has shifted his position from what he told Senators at his confirmation hearing, where he said that it would be best for the CFTC to defer to the courts on the core legal issue facing Kalshi and Polymarket.

Last week Selig announced the the regulator would create an “Innovation Advisory Committee” to help the CFTC draft regulations on issues such as cryptocurrencies and prediction markets. The 35-member panel includes the CEOs of Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, FanDuel and DraftKings. While there’s some representation from traditional finance, the panel has no representation from consumer advocates or public interest groups.

Selig now says that prediction markets effectively do the same thing as other futures contracts, where customers can hedge against bad weather or changes in energy prices, and they are not betting against the house, which is what happens with sports book companies. The states that have taken legal action against Kalshi and Polymarket argue that while these companies do offer customers the ability to bet on future events, the vast majority of their business is sports betting. Further, most prediction markets allow customers 18 years or older to use their platforms, while state gambling is limited to those 21 years or older.

Selig now says states cannot preempt federal regulators.

“To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear, we will see you in court,” Selig said in a video statement.

Some members of the GOP pushed back on Selig’s announcement, including the Governor of Utah, which has some of the strictest gambling laws in the country.

“Mike, I appreciate you attempting this with a straight face, but I don’t remember the CFTC having authority over the “derivative market” of LeBron James rebounds,” said Gov. Spencer Cox, in a statement on Twitter. “These prediction markets you are breathlessly defending are gambling — pure and simple.”

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Trump’s border czar says ‘small’ security force will remain in Minnesota after enforcement drawdown

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Trump’s border czar says ‘small’ security force will remain in Minnesota after enforcement drawdown

WASHINGTON (AP) — White House border czar Tom Homan said Sunday that more than 1,000 immigration agents have left Minnesota’s Twin Cities area and hundreds more will depart in the days ahead as part of the Trump administration’s drawdown of its immigration enforcement surge.

A “small” security force will stay for a short period to protect remaining immigration agents and will respond “when our agents are out and they get surrounded by agitators and things got out of control,” Homan told CBS’ “Face the Nation.” He did not define “small.”

He also said agents will keep investigating fraud allegations as well as the anti-immigration enforcement protest that disrupted a service at a church service.

“We already removed well over 1,000 people, and as of Monday, Tuesday, we’ll remove several hundred more,” Homan said. “We’ll get back to the original footprint.”

Thousands of officers were sent to the Minneapolis and St. Paul area for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s “Operation Metro Surge.” The Department of Homeland Security said it was its largest immigration enforcement operation ever and proved successful. But the crackdown came under increasing criticism as the situation grew more volatile and two U.S. citizens were killed.

People take part in an anti-ICE protest outside the Governors Residence in St. Paul, Minn., on Friday, Feb. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

People take part in an anti-ICE protest outside the Governors Residence in St. Paul, Minn., on Friday, Feb. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

Protests became common. A network of residents worked to help immigrants, warn of approaching agents or film immigration officers’ actions. The shooting deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal officers drew condemnation and raised questions over officers’ conduct, prompting changes to the operation.

Homan announced last week that 700 federal officers would leave Minnesota immediately, but that still left more than 2,000 in the state. He said Thursday that a “significant drawdown” was already underway and would continue through this week.

Homan said enforcement would not stop in the Twin Cities and that mass deportations will continue across the country. Officers leaving Minnesota will report back to their stations or be assigned elsewhere.

When asked if future deployments could match the scale of the Twin Cities operation, Homan said “it depends on the situation.”

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