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Bellwether suburban county’s red shift is now at the center of both parties’ future identities in New York

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ALBANY, New York — The statewide blue wave in which New York Democrats made big gains in nearly every corner of the state this November had one glaring exception: Nassau County.

While Empire State Democrats scored one of their best election nights on record, Republicans held down America’s archetypal suburb, with GOP candidates notching an 11-0 record in contested executive branch races in Nassau. In the marquee race, County Executive Bruce Blakeman improved on his 2021 performance after four years of wholeheartedly embracing President Donald Trump.

Blakeman is hoping to ride that success into next year: He launched a 2026 gubernatorial bid Tuesday touting his electability.

“While Democrats made gains nationwide on election night, the Republican party shined bright on Long Island,” the narrator of his launch video said. “Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman won a Democrat County by 12 percent.”

Whether Blakeman’s GOP primary opponent Rep. Elise Stefanik can replicate those numbers will be a key question facing Republican voters next June. Blakeman told Blue Light News his recent win came down to holding fast to pocketbook issues, hiring more cops and connecting with groups Republicans have ignored in the past. Others say his decisive victory might simply stem from a strong local party organization.

Whatever the secret of his success, the importance of Nassau extends far beyond next year’s gubernatorial race. It will also be crucial to determining control of the House.

And it is not just Republicans whose future stands to be shaped by Nassau’s political trends. Democrats have spent years bickering over whether party members in the county have focused too much on distancing themselves from the far left. Moderate Nassau Democrats say progressives like New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani have made their jobs tougher.

“Most of the television commercials that they put up were all about ‘Mamdani, Mamdani, democratic socialists,’” Nassau Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs said. “Their tagline was, in effect, ‘Vote Republican and save Nassau County from becoming a socialist county.’ That plays well with a moderate audience.”

Democratic struggles in Nassau County have become a regular through line, revisited with each election cycle. While it was at the heart of the national blue wave in 2017 and 2018, the GOP won big there in 2021 local races. Four years after a 16-point Democratic win in Nassau in the 2018 gubernatorial election, the party suffered an 11-point loss in 2022. Then in 2024, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Nassau County since 1988.

How that pattern plays out next year remains an open question.

Rep. Laura Gillen, a Democrat in a battleground Nassau swing district, “is the number one target in the country for Republicans,” said Larry Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. “They really think they can win in that district and they’re going to put an unlimited amount of money in.”

An effective GOP candidate at the top of the ticket would help considerably toward that end.

Stefanik’s team disputed the idea that Blakeman has a magic formula for electoral success, pointing to his unsuccessful bids for state comptroller, New York City mayor and U.S. Senate. He last ran for higher office when he lost a congressional bid in 2014 — the same year Stefanik flipped a House seat with a 21-point victory.

Yet Blakeman believes he has a solid case to make.

He attributed his success this election cycle to holding true to past promises to not raise taxes and hire more police officers, while also building connections to groups Republicans haven’t focused on in the past. He rattled off a long list of outreach efforts undertaken by the county in recent years, such as a Feliz Navidad celebration and a Lunar New Year festival.

“We also reached out to the Muslim community and talked to them about things that were important to them,” Blakeman said. “I appointed the first Muslim police chaplain in Nassau County history, and shortly I will be appointing the first Sikh police chaplain.”

Trump, who has become politically toxic in many New York suburbs, will undoubtedly be a factor in next year’s race. On Monday, he described both Blakeman and Stefanik as “great,” and while he has not yet expressed a preference for either, that could change. And arguably no local official in the northeast has done more to associate themselves with Trumpism than Blakeman.

Under his leadership, Nassau County spent more than $1 million on police overtime hosting Trump for a campaign rally last fall. Blakeman has been New York’s most visible opponent of letting transgender girls participate in female sports and has had the county partner with ICE on immigration enforcement efforts. In late November, he announced a wall of surveillance on the Queens border to conduct facial recognition on visitors from Mamdani’s New York.

“I never ran away from President Trump,” Blakeman told Blue Light News. “I supported President Trump, and I was very vocal about my support for President Trump”

The approach is a far cry from how Nassau County Democrats have handled Mamdani.

Jacobs, who also serves as chair of the state Democratic Party, famously distanced himself from the mayor-elect in the fall, declining to offer an endorsement after Mamdani became the Democratic nominee. And he’s hardly the only local Democrat who falls into that category: “Mamdani’s reckless agenda filled with unachievable promises and contempt for certain groups threatens NY’s economy and safety,”Gillen said this fall.

Democrats based in New York City contend this is exactly what their counterparts on Long Island should not be doing.

“When the leading Democrats in the county are telling everyone that the Democratic Party sucks, it’s hard to convince voters to vote for your party,” said state Sen. Deputy Leader Mike Gianaris, who heads the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. “They should start looking inside themselves and start trying to make a positive case for Democrats, or I think they can expect this to continue.”

Unlike in Nassau, Long Island’s neighboring Suffolk County showed significant signs of the pendulum swinging back to the left this November. Democrats grew their share of the vote by 10 or more points in four of the five top town races, and they flipped seats in places like Shelter Island and Riverhead.

Democrats haven’t been completely without hopeful signs in Nassau either.

They won a victory last month in a newly-drawn county legislative district, denying Blakeman’s allies a supermajority and giving them the ability to put their foot in the door during budget talks. In 2024, Tom Suozzi broke the Republicans’ hold on four congressional seats by winning a special election. Gillen won another seat later that year, thanks to a two-point victory in a district that favored Democrats by 11 points as recently as 2020.

But even the good Democratic vibes in the 2024 congressional races underscored a long-standing issue in the county — winning back the seat in Suozzi’s special election would not have been necessary if local Democrats had done opposition research into the now-disgraced former Rep. George Santos before the 2022 election.

The failure to do so illustrates another reality in the area. After decades of controlling Nassau, Republicans built a well-oiled machine.

“The relative strength of the organizations — it’s just not even close,” said Levy, who likened the GOP’s political operation to that of former Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. “At a time when all over the country, political organizations are shrinking in influence for a variety of reasons, Nassau still has an old-fashioned Daley machine-like operation that can get a vote out in ways that the Democrats can’t.”

Democrats didn’t do much to end that structural disadvantage when they won power in 2017.

“Arguably the Democrats could have, should have done more to leverage the patronage opportunities to raise money and create more foot soldiers to work politically,” Levy said. But any steps they made in that direction were halted when the political winds started to shift: “Anything that happened before the pandemic almost doesn’t count.”

Jacobs, who said his party was outspent by a more than four-to-one margin in the county executive’s race, didn’t disagree with the characterization.

“They raised and spent $15 million. That’s an extraordinary amount of money,” he said. “That was supplemented by both county mailings and town mailings that, in my judgement and other peoples’ judgement, were campaign-like pieces paid for by the taxpayer.”

That onslaught of ads built off years of tying local Democrats to policies like bail reform or high-density housing or candidates like Mamdani, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Kathy Hochul. The Democratic brand “is really doing poorly” in the area, Jacobs said.

“People — even at the doors when you’re collecting petitions, even when they’re Democrats — are upset with our party,” he said. “That’s been driven by a really well-funded consistent campaign by Republicans to set the narrative that all Democrats are either wild extremists themselves or so afraid of them that they bend to whatever the far left in our party wants. Neither of which is true, but too many people believe it.”

Nassau Republicans, meanwhile, aren’t shying away from a president whom the opposition characterizes as an extremist.

“In a county with 110,000 more Democrats, to win by 35,000 votes is something that is very special,” Blakeman said. “You have to be true to your values, and not a phony.”

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Congress

Republicans confront the massive cost of Trump’s Middle East war

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Republicans on Capitol Hill are preparing to confront a staggering price tag for the war in the Middle East after closed-door briefings this week detailed the rapid consumption of expensive munitions and the lack of any firm deadline for the end of the military campaign.

Asked how much the Iran offensive would cost, House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) didn’t sugarcoat it.

“A lot,” he replied.

Senior Republicans privately expect President Donald Trump’s administration to request tens of billions of dollars for the Middle East conflict and other military needs from Congress in the coming days, with some GOP lawmakers hearing estimates that the Pentagon is spending as much as $2 billion a day on the war.

Three F-15E jets shot down by friendly fire in Kuwait are estimated to cost $100 million alone. But Trump officials in private briefings have declined to give lawmakers any specific numbers, according to six congressional Republicans granted anonymity to describe the internal discussions.

A White House request for supplemental funding could further balloon once it hits Capitol Hill, according to four other people with direct knowledge of the matter. Farm-state Republicans want an additional $15 billion in tariff relief for farmers, while others float adding tens of billions of dollars in wildfire aid to get enough Democratic support to pass the massive bill.

The prospect of a growing new spending measure has GOP leaders bracing for a messy internal fight, with fiscal hawks who have long decried “forever wars” and bloated Pentagon budgets deeply unsettled by some of the cost estimates flying around on Capitol Hill. At the very least, some are planning to demand offsetting spending cuts.

“I haven’t seen any specifics … but if it’s unpaid-for, I generally have an issue,” Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) said.

Another House Republican granted anonymity to describe the conversations among GOP hard-liners said, “It’s not a ‘hell no,’ but it should be offset somehow.”

The topic is now looming over next week’s House Republican policy retreat, which kicks off Monday with a speech from Trump at the president’s resort in Doral, Florida. If the administration sends its formal funding request in the coming days, House GOP leaders will be forced to confront the issue head on.

At least some are expressing unqualified early support for any administration request. House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.), for instance, said in an interview this week he is ready to support an emergency funding bill spending tens of billions of dollars on the Iran operation alone.

That sentiment could be challenged by the congressional Republicans who are privately wary of the open-ended timeline and shifting rationales for the war. One House Republican recently remarked that Trump’s pledge to do “whatever” it takes, including entertaining boots on the ground, sounded like “President Lyndon Johnson going into Vietnam.”

Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a vulnerable Pennsylvania Republican, noted that “as much as we need to neutralize their capabilities to continue to attack us, we do also need to make sure that we don’t get dragged into a forever war.”

Asked in an interview if Congress is ready to approve a $50 billion Pentagon funding package, Speaker Mike Johnson replied that he didn’t know the specific number yet but Congress would pass the bill “when it’s appropriate and get it right.”

“We’re waiting on the White House and [the Pentagon] to let us know, but we have an open dialogue about it,” Johnson said.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who is attuned to the spending concerns among the fiscal hawks inside the GOP ranks, demurred when asked about the potential for a $50 billion package.

“We’re still just in the first few days of this conflict, and there’s no ask yet from the Department of War for a supplemental,” Scalise said in an interview Wednesday.

He referenced the laborious talks ahead: “When that time comes, we’ll obviously have very serious conversations, because it’s important that the Department of War have the tools they need to keep America safe.”

A bigger potential headache is brewing for Johnson as members of his conference debate whether additional military funding should go in a much-discussed but long-shot budget reconciliation bill. That could move to Trump’s desk along party lines without Democratic support, but only if Republicans are almost completely unified.

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said in an interview this week he expected the chamber to move forward on an initial emergency funding bill but that a second filibuster-skirting megabill could contain additional Pentagon spending, along with some possible offsetting cuts.

“It’s not just for the current conflict,” Arrington said. “There are things that need to be retooled fundamentally at the Defense Department, and the president’s team is making a really good case for that.”

Rep. Ralph Norman, one GOP hard-liner who has objected in the past to big Pentagon budgets, now says he would “absolutely” support a $50 billion bill without offsets.

“I don’t like it, but with what this president’s doing with income — the GDP is increasing, the money he’s bringing in for other investments — to handicap him on that, that’s a problem,” said Norman, who is running for South Carolina governor and seeking Trump’s support.

In the Senate, some GOP appropriators are cautioning that any war funding bill will be a big lift — and warning the administration to get specific, and fast.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a senior member of the Defense Appropriations subcommittee, said the “administration should not be taking anything for granted.”

“If they come to us at the end of the month and say, ‘This is what we want, and basically, deliver the votes’ … it’s not a winning strategy, in my view,” she said. “You’ve got to start making the case.”

Katherine Tully-McManus and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

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GOP fundraiser with Hegseth scrapped amid Iran War buildup

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Rep. Zach Nunn has postponed a planned “Top Gun” themed fundraiser with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that had drawn criticism over its timing — at the start of a war that has already resulted in U.S. casualties.

The Iowa Republican announced the postponement Thursday on social media.

Nunn had said Hegseth would appear at the fundraiser on Saturday, hours after the initial U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in Iran. The event, called “Top Nunn” and billed as a “salute to the troops,” was scheduled for later this month in a Des Moines suburb.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon publicly identified the first U.S. deaths in the war, troops who were killed by an Iranian drone strike in Kuwait. The six soldiers were assigned to an Army Reserve command based in Nunn’s district, and two of them were from Iowa.

The announcement of the fundraiser drew strong condemnation from Democrats, who accused Hegseth of leveraging the war for political purposes. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Katie Smith attacked Nunn’s event as “callous and disqualifying” in a statement on Wednesday.

Nunn, a former intelligence officer for the Air Force, explained the postponement in a social media post while offering condolences to the families of the troops who were killed.

“Operation TOP NUNN is postponed. We will have more to share about the event soon, and all ticket holders will be notified of the new date,” Nunn said. “Our prayers are with the families and our action is with our troops on the frontlines.”

Nunn said he plans to attend the arrival of the remains of the six soldiers at Dover Air Force Base on Saturday along with President Donald Trump.

Nunn paid his respects to the six soldiers in a speech on the House floor Thursday and led a moment of silence.

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Markwayne Mullin faces a straightforward path to confirmation as DHS secretary

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In replacing ousted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Donald Trump is opting for one of the more reliable strategies to guarantee a quick Senate confirmation — nominating a senator.

Trump’s choice of Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma sets up a relatively straightforward process, with some Senate Democrats already indicating they are open to voting for him.

“We’ve been successful at whipping everybody the president has nominated, and I expect the same for Markwayne Mullin,” Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the No. 2 Senate Republican, said Thursday.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune separately told reporters that he wanted to move Mullin’s nomination “quickly.” Trump did not indicate in his Truth Social post when he would send Mullin’s nomination to the Senate, but said he would take over “effective March 31.”

“He’s obviously pretty well-vetted around here, so hopefully we can get the process going,” Thune said.

Mullin thanked Trump for the nomination in a statement Thursday and said, “I look forward to earning the support of my colleagues in the Senate and carrying out President Trump’s mission alongside the department’s many capable agencies and the thousands of patriots who keep us safe every day.”

Noem was confirmed 59-34 by the Senate, but she lost the confidence of many of the lawmakers who voted to confirm her more than a year ago. Republican Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska both called on her to step down after DHS agents killed 37-year-old Alex Pretti in Minneapolis and she labeled him a “domestic terrorist” without evidence.

Both Tillis and Murkowski praised Mullin Thursday in the immediate wake of Trump’s announcement.

“He’s a man of his word. I think he’ll go in, get experts in there, and prove to be an executive with the right kind of skills, and get things squared away quickly,” Tillis said, adding that the decision was good for Trump’s “legacy.”

Tillis noted separately that Mullin “likes dogs,” an apparent reference to a story Noem included in her memoir about killing a misbehaving dog named Cricket.

Murkowski said she had a “great deal of respect” for Mullin.

“He has been a really good liaison between the Senate, actually the whole Congress, and the White House,” Murkowski said. “I’ve got strong respect for the guy, so I think he’ll do a good job

Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, a member of GOP leadership, acknowledged that Mullin’s nomination is unlikely to be unanimous, but he thought he would be treated “fairly” by his Senate colleagues.

It’s rare for current or former senators to see their nominations to administration posts derailed, but it has happened — most famously in 1989, when the Senate rejected John Tower’s nomination as Defense secretary amid charges of alcoholism and womanizing. More recently, Sens. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) and Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) withdrew their nominations under then-President Barack Obama in 2009.

Republicans can confirm any of Trump’s nominees on their own as long as most of their own members stay united. But they’ll get at least a little help: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said Thursday he will support Mullin’s nomination — a nod that could be especially important because he’s on the committee that must advance Mullin’s nomination to the full Senate.

Other Senate Democrats, including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, are telegraphing they will oppose Mullin as they also blockade DHS funding over the department’s aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.

“The Senate should not consider any DHS Secretary nominee until DHS and ICE are reined in,” Schumer wrote on X Thursday, saying he would vote against Mullin.

But other Democrats, including Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, left the door open to supporting the eventual nomination.

“I’m open to it, but he’s going to have to make real changes,” Coons said.

There is one potential pitfall: Mullin reportedly recently called Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), the chair of the DHS-overseeing committee, a “freaking snake.” Paul has broad latitude to schedule and advance the director’s nomination.

Spokespeople for Paul didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Mullin’s nomination.

Katherine Tully-McManus, Meredith Lee Hill and Calen Razor contributed to this report.

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