The Dictatorship

America can’t afford Trump’s war with Iran for long

Published

4 months ago

March 7, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Tues. 7, 2026, 6:00 AM EST

ByJoseph Zeballos-Roig

The U.S. economy right now is like the hero of an action movie in the last few minutes: bloodied, but resilient.

After facing everything from stubborn inflation to sweeping global tariffs to a record-breaking government shutdown, America has somehow managed to avoid a recession and soldier on. The labor market, though, is showing bruises as U.S. employers reported cutting92,000 jobs in February.

But, as in an action movie, the economy is now up against its biggest foe yet: a costly war in Iran, a regional power in the Middle East that just happens to sit next to what is arguably the world’s most critical maritime energy chokepoint.

The blows are already coming. The war is costing the U.S. an estimated $1 billion a dayaccording to two congressional sources with knowledge of the matter. Oil prices are now forecast to go higher, while gas prices have already jumped to $3.32. It’s the highest price it has reached in either of Trump’s two terms. The situation is so in flux that gas prices are poised to climb higher than that after this article is published.

The knock-on effects of increasingly expensive oil will be felt next.

The knock-on effects of increasingly expensive oil will be felt next. Higher costs for oil and gas will spread to the costs of other goods and services, particularly those relying on trucks for transportation. Higher prices for airline tickets aren’t out of the question. Grocery bills and electricity prices will also follow suit if the war drags on.

The war with Iran almost instantly wrecked forecasts for lower oil prices this year, one of the only slices of the U.S. economy that had been getting cheaper for consumers. Analysts had previously expected Brent crude to trade at about $60 per barrel in 2026. Instead, Brent crude rocketed to $93 per barrel as of Friday due to the conflict.

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs published a worst-case scenario in which $100 per barrel of oil becomes a reality in five weeks. That was based on whether Iran managed to choke off oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway near Iran that accounts for one-fifth of global oil and natural gas shipping. It did, and Goldman quickly updated its forecast for oil prices to cross into dreaded triple-digit territory as soon as next week.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, recently said“a good rule of thumb” is to assume that for every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices, the cost of a gallon of regular unleaded will rise by 25 cents. Prices at the pump usually move in tandem with crude oil, which quickly climbed after the first wave of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The country’s clerical regime does have incentives to drive up global oil prices as high as possible in a last-ditch effort to ensure its survival. The Iranian military has already targetedpower plants and oil refineries in the Gulf, and the financial fallout of the war stands to get worse if nothing changes. Qatar warned on Fridayoil prices may reach $150 per barrel within three weeks if the war shuts down commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

So far, this latest war has only intensified across the Middle East. Trump has statedhe believes the U.S. will keep up its air-and-sea offensive against Iran for four or five weeks, adding, “we have capability to go far longer than that.” Indeed, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth raised a scenario in which the war lasts eight weeks.

Trump has railed against “affordability” and even called it “a hoax”during an economic speech late last year. So it wasn’t surprising to hear him downplaya possible long-term spike in gas prices this week.

“I don’t have any concern about it. They’ll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise,” the president told Reutersin a Thursday interview. Yes and no.

Even if the U.S. and Israel call off their military campaign in the next two or three weeks, gasoline prices could remain elevated for a while. Economists have named this tendency “rockets and feathers.” Gas prices shoot up like a rocket overnight. But those same prices fall delicately like a feather over many weeks.

Still, the U.S. is better able to withstand an oil shock than in the past. It enjoys a privileged position as the world’s top oil drillerso it’s not as dependent on foreign oil supplies as it was two decades ago when it launched the second Iraq War. Still, that doesn’t mean the U.S. economy is completely inoculated.

Sugar prices rosethis week with the expectation of Brazilian mills stepping up production of ethanol instead of sugar as a cheaper fuel alternative.

The Strait of Hormuz is associated with oil, but it’s also a vital arteryfor fertilizer transport. Fertilizer prices were already elevated prior to the Iran conflict, dealing a blow to American farmers coping with dwindling markets and lower crop prices.

Now their spring planting budgets face more strain due to rising prices for urea, a version of nitrogen fertilizer often used for corn. Farmers facing fresh hardship could take it out on Republicans in the November midterms.

Many companies spent the past year reshuffling supply chains to avert Trump’s double-digit tariffs. The war is jolting them anew. The top five largest container shipping firms, including Maersk, suspended their operations in the Persian Gulf, per trade analystJacob Jensen at the American Action Forum.

Instead of traveling through the Suez Canal, the companies are sending their cargo fleets around the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of South Africa. The fraught, dangerous environment caused them to add surcharges ranging from $1,500 to $3,500 per container.

The building blocks of prolonged uncertainty are all falling into place.

The building blocks of prolonged uncertainty are all falling into place. Trump remains devoted to his tariffs, which affect just about everyone in the U.S. The White House is scrambling to rebuild a 15% universal tariff regime that the Supreme Court knocked down. If the war in Iran stretches on for months, it will magnify the expected price increasesfor food, furniture and much more.

Trump continues lashing out at long-standing allies, particularly in Europe. Recently, Spain caught the brunt of his fury when the government refused to allow U.S. warplanes to use their bases for the Iran war. Trump then threatened to cut off trade with Spain, a member of NATO and the European Union. No one knows which country will land in hot water with the president next.

Still, don’t count out the U.S. economy just yet. Reports of its demise have been greatly exaggerated before. Famously, it defied a 100% probability call for a recession in 2023 made by Bloomberg Economics models.

Only time will tell if the economy keeps going despite sustaining so many body blows, or if it’s knocked down by another war in the Middle East. The longer the war goes on, though, the harder it will be to stay standing.

Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Joseph Zeballos-Roig is a reporter who has covered economic policy and politics for Semafor, Business Insider and Quartz, among other publications.

The Dictatorship

Monday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.22.26: Why Trump backed both Republicans in a key S.C. race

Published

14 hours ago

June 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Monday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.22.26: Why Trump backed both Republicans in a key S.C. race

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.

* In South Carolina’s gubernatorial raceDonald Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pam Evette last month. Last week, however, ahead of this week’s primary runoff election in the race, the president published an online item telling voters that “you can’t go wrong” with either Evette or state Attorney General Alan Wilson.

If this sounds at all familiar, it’s because Trump has done this before. Around this time two years ago, for example, he endorsed both Republicans running in a congressional primary in Arizona. And two years before that, he endorsed two leading contenders in a Senate primary in Missouri.

Only the president can say for sure why he ended up endorsing Evette and Wilson in the South Carolina race, though it’s worth emphasizing for context that GOP primary voters have already ignored his direction into two gubernatorial primaries this month, and it stands to reason that he hoped to avoid a third.

* We’re one day away from a variety of notable racesincluding but not limited to South Carolina’s gubernatorial race. There are also some congressional primaries in a handful of statesincluding Maryland, New York and Utah.

* In took a while, but the ballots have been tallied under Maine’s ranked-choice systemand we now know that Democrat Hannah Pingree, the former state House speaker, will face off against Republican Bobby Charles, who worked at the State Department during the Bush-Cheney era.

* As for Maine’s closely watched congressional racestate Auditor Matt Dunlap won the Democratic nomination in the battleground 2nd District, defeating state Sen. Joe Baldacci, who enjoyed the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Dunlap will run in the fall against a familiar figure: former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, who had moved to Florida a few years ago, but who returned to run for Congress.

* In California’s congressional special electiontwo Democratic candidates — state Sen. Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, a Bay Area Rapid Transit director — have advanced to an Aug. 18 special general election. The winner will fill the vacancy left by disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned in April.

* In a new commercial shared first with MS NOWDemocrat James Talarico has launched his campaign’s first multimillion-dollar ad buy in Texas’ gubernatorial race. In the 30-second spot, Talarico focuses on affordability and the cost of living. The state lawmaker will face scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the fall.

* And in New Jersey, Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr.who has been missing from Capitol Hill since early March, will reportedly return to work on June 30according to a statement from his spokesperson. Neither Kean nor his office have offered any public information about why he has been away.

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”

The Dictatorship

Trump tries dual endorsement in South Carolina as his pick for governor flounders in polls

Published

14 hours ago

June 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Trump tries dual endorsement in South Carolina as his pick for governor flounders in polls

Jun. 22, 2026, 11:39 AM EDT

After President Donald Trump’s pick for governor in Iowa lost in the Republican primary earlier this month, the president argued that he “would have endorsed the other person” if he had “the proper information.”

Trump is taking no chances in the South Carolina gubernatorial primary. Over the weekend he rescinded his exclusive endorsement of Pamela Evette, the lieutenant governor, announcing instead that he would support both Evette and her runoff opponent, Alan Wilson, the state’s attorney general.

The move put Evette’s political future in jeopardy: Even before Trump’s dual endorsement, she trailed in limited public polling and was seen by political observers in South Carolina as a weak candidate with little to show besides the president’s coveted endorsement.

“Her chief distinction from Alan Wilson was that Trump endorsed her,” said Dr. Dubose Kapeluck, a professor of political science at the Citadel Military College of South Carolina.

Trump’s dual endorsement “was a kiss of death,” he told MS NOW.

Evette, who moved to South Carolina from Ohio to found a successful payroll and HR company in 2000, has been lieutenant governor since 2019, serving under Gov. Henry McMaster, who is term-limited.

In office, she has pursued meaningful but little-celebrated policies, like a key tort reform bill, according to Gil Gatch, a Republican member of the South Carolina state House and an Evette supporter.

But voters could be forgiven for knowing little about Evette besides the fact that Trump endorsed her, which he did just days before the June 9 primary. Visitors to her campaign website are greeted with a full-screen message labeling Evette as “Trump-endorsed.” The first line in her X bio states the same. Pro-Evette television ads are quick to tout the endorsement.

An accomplishment like tort reform, while noted on Evette’s website, “maybe could have been something that was highlighted more heavily,” Gatch told MS NOW.

The political makeup of South Carolina nearly guarantees the next governor will be whoever emerges on Tuesday between Evette and Wilson. They survived a crowded primary field on June 9, and nearly every challenger who fell short of the runoff publicly endorsed the attorney general.

“She’s just not a good candidate,” Josh Kimbrell, a state senator who failed to make the runoff and has since said he’d back Wilson, said of Evette.

“She kind of assumed this was a coronation, and that was never going to go over that well,” he added.

Even some pro-Trump voters were confused by the president’s initial endorsement of Evette, whom he called “a good friend, fighter, and WINNER” in a social media post in May.

“I have no clue why Trump would endorse Pamela Evette,” Leland Lemmons, a 30-year-old Trump supporter told MS NOW as he exited a polling site in the Greenville suburb of Easley on June 9.

“She’s served, you know, a decent time. I just haven’t seen much fruition of what she’s done in office,” he added.

In a post on Truth Social Friday announcing his dual endorsement, Trump wrote, “I can’t hurt one of them by only Endorsing the other, so, therefore, I am going to Endorse, for Governor of South Carolina, both Pam Evette and Alan Wilson!”

In a subsequent statement on X, Evette said, “I was proud to come in first as [Trump’s] endorsed candidate for Governor on June 9th. Looking forward to doing it again on June 23rd.”

After The Washington Post foreshadowed the dual endorsement last Tuesday, allies of Evette were quick to denounce the possibility.

“I would guess that’s fake news,” Suzanne Pucci, a member of Evette’s finance committee, told MS NOW of the chance Trump would also endorse Wilson. “She’s probably not real worried about it.”

Another close ally and supporter told MS NOW at the time the report was “a total, fabricated lie.”

“[Trump] is invested in Pamela Evette because she invested in him. He’s a loyal guy. That kind of stuff is important to him,” added the supporter, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“With or without Trump, I think she is going to win,” they said.

On Thursday, a senior campaign aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity, brushed off the idea of a dual endorsement, telling MS NOW in a statement, “Pamela Evette has earned the complete and total endorsement of President Trump. She is the only Trump-endorsed candidate in this race and we look forward to delivering a big win for the president on Tuesday.”

Roughly 24 hours later, Trump retracted the exclusive endorsement.

Will McDuffie is a reporter for MS NOW.

The Dictatorship

Fears of an ‘economic catastrophe’ helped push Trump toward an Iran deal

Published

14 hours ago

June 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Fears of an ‘economic catastrophe’ helped push Trump toward an Iran deal

As last week’s G7 summit in France got underway, a reporter asked Donald Trump whether his purported deal with Iran was final. “No, it’s not final,” the president replied. Later that day — during a visit to Versaillesof all places — he signed the framework anyway.

But moments after signing his name to the memorandum of understanding, Trump offered an unsubtle hint about what he was thinking at the time. Amid applause from those around him, the American president pointed down and then up while saying“Oil down, stocks up.”

In other words, Trump’s focus had nothing to do with natural security and everything to do with the economy. What’s more, the four-word phrase was part of a larger and underappreciated pattern. The Washington Post reported:

In the more than 100 days since President Donald Trump launched a war with Iran, he has offered a shifting list of reasons for why he started the conflict. But in explaining his push for peace, he named a priority much closer to home: protecting the stock market.

“I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe,” Trump told reporters gathered in the Alpine spa town of Évian-les-Bains, France, after the Group of Seven summit.

As the summit wrapped up, the Republican similarly said“I’ve studied presidents, some good, some bad, some great. Not too many are great and some really bad. … And the one president I did not want to be was the late, great Herbert Hoover. I didn’t want that and who knows what would have happened.”

He pushed the same point in an interview with Axios, which was released over the weekend.

“If I went further, the stock market would be much lower,” the president said. “Now think of this: I have one primary wish as president, in terms of people: I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover.”

The comments came days after Trump similarly argued“The alternative to this deal was a global recession. There are stupid people who want to see a global recession. They are just stupid people.”

Whether the president fully appreciates the implications of his own rhetoric, this string of comments doesn’t just shed light on his motivations for accepting a defeat, it also suggests he saw his failed policy in Iran as pushing the global economy toward a dangerous cliff.

In other words, based on Trump’s own comments, the war he started was poised to create an “economic catastrophe,” which he was desperate to avoid — and which led him to accept a framework that empowered Iran to get what it wanted in exchange for effectively no concessions at all.