Politics
Albany Democrats poised for biggest leadership shake-up in years
MAJOR SHIFT: Last week’s conclusion of Albany’s legislative session left Democratic state lawmakers poised for the biggest shakeup in their ranks since they assumed one-party control in 2019.
Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes is retiring at the end of the year, opening up the No. 2 job for only the second time since Carl Heastie became speaker 11 years ago.
State Sen. Mike Gianaris is on his way out too. His departure will leave open the role of Democratic Senate Campaign Committee chair, which he’s held since he was a senator-elect in 2010. It will also pave the way for a new floor leader and Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins’ deputy.
On top of that, Senate Democrats are about to become the first conference in state history to bump up against term limits.
Rules enacted in 2009 imposed eight-year caps on the majority leader and committee chairs. No party has remained in power long enough to be impacted since then, but the rules will soon apply to Stewart-Cousins and up to a dozen of her members.
“I’d probably have to,” state Sen. Liz Krueger said when asked if she’d vote to scrap the term limits. “Because it would mean Andrea couldn’t remain leader. And I do not actually accept the concept where Andrea doesn’t remain leader.”
Krueger is one of seven impacted chairs surveyed in recent months who unanimously said they want Stewart-Cousins to remain. But Democrats haven’t yet settled on what should happen to other top jobs.
“It’s really a question of ‘do you change all the term limits for everybody while you’re changing them for leadership, or do you allow for some new opportunities at the committee level?’” Investigations and Government Operations Committee Chair James Skoufis said. “I don’t know where I land on that.”
“The level of expertise I’ve developed, it’s not because I’m better or smarter than anyone else, I’ve just been in it longer,” state Sen. Gustavo Rivera said of the “deep and dark and mysterious” realm of policy he oversees as Health Committee Chair. “I would be hard pressed to find somebody in the Senate who would be able to do the job on day one.”
Gianaris’ departure might lead to widespread shuffling, regardless. And while Krueger is running again, she missed the conclusion of this year’s session after an April stroke. It remains to be seen whether she’ll return to the grueling job of being the top Democrat on the Finance Committee as she’s been since 2011 — possibly leading to more musical chairs at the top.
Stewart-Cousins said she’s looking for a deputy “who can bring the same types of talents and skills that Sen. Gianaris has brought.” Names that came up in surveys of legislators and lobbyists include state Sens. Jamaal Bailey, Andrew Gounardes and Shelley Mayer. Still, there isn’t a widespread consensus.
There’s more agreement over who might replace Peoples-Stokes. Upstaters have held the job since 1979, providing some balance to speakers from New York City over the years. The pick will need to be somebody who can work well with Heastie, and conventional wisdom holds they should have a good amount of tenure. Over a dozen insiders mentioned the same three names as fitting each of those criteria: Syracuse’s Pamela Hunter, Rochester’s Harry Bronson and Albany’s John McDonald.
Heastie, however, isn’t making a firm commitment to tradition.
“The requirement that the majority leader comes from upstate, that’s more of a y’all thing,” he told reporters. “I inherited a great majority leader who happened to be upstate in Joe Morelle, one of my closest friends. And then Crystal was somebody I knew even before I was elected, and she’s been amazing. But I don’t know if I feel limited to if it’d have to be somebody from upstate. It could be Long Island, it could be the Hudson Valley — I haven’t even really thought about it.” — Bill Mahoney
From the Capitol
MONSERRATE LEADS PACK: The state’s Public Campaign Finance Board issued $1.96 million in matching funds payments Tuesday, marking the final day such outlays will be issued before the June 23 primary.
The scandal-plagued Hiram Monserrate was the state’s top beneficiary of public funds this week.
He’s running to return to the state Senate against the incumbent state Sen. Jessica Ramos and Assemblymember Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas. Monserrate is the only sitting legislator to be removed by his colleagues in the past century, following his 2009 misdemeanor conviction arising from a domestic violence incident. Since then, this is his ninth comeback bid.
Overall, his haul trails the $348,000 in matching funds that Gonzalez-Rojas has received to date. Ramos has taken in $128,000 in recent months.
Read more from Blue Light News Pro’s Bill Mahoney here.
FROM CITY HALL
BROKEN PROMISES?: Transit advocates are intensifying their pressure on Mayor Zohran Mamdani to set aside more money to lower bus and subway fares. Groups of straphangers, like Riders Alliance, are now portraying the mayor as a promise breaker if he doesn’t support an expansion of the Fair Fares program, which offers discounts to low-income New Yorkers.
“New Yorkers are hurting, especially low-income commuters whose work we all depend on, and this is the mayor’s last chance to lower costs for transit this year, after emphasizing the importance of affordable public transit for his entire career,” Riders Alliance spokesperson Danny Pearlstein said in a text message.
Free buses was one of Mamdani’s three most prominent campaign pledges — alongside child care for all and a rent freeze — but the one he’s seemed to make the least headway on.
Riders Alliance, along with City Council members Tiffany Caban, Shahana Hanif and others, is holding a rally at noon tomorrow outside City Hall to “demand” the mayor “keep his promise to lower costs” — more pointed language than advocates have used publicly in the past.
While Mamdani’s free bus plan is on hold in large part because Albany isn’t on board, the City Council has backed more money for Fair Fares. The mayor, however, is reluctant to take that path because he generally doesn’t support policies where access is based on how much money people make. — Ry Rivard
WORKING THE REFS: Mamdani has a bone to pick about the officiating at Monday’s NBA finals game, which the Knicks lost to the Spurs.
“Crime is going down in New York City, but what we saw the other night did feel criminal,” Mamdani quipped to reporters today. “You just look at the disparity on fouls that were being called. I think many New Yorkers came away from that game with a very clear reflection of the absence of fair refereeing.”
Despite the mayor’s fandom, Madison Square Garden, the home of the Knicks, released a statement Tuesday calling Mamdani and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch “party poopers” for instituting tighter security for a watch party outside the arena tonight.
Asked about it, Mamdani said the level of security planned is “in line with the measures that the NYPD uses for gatherings of this size, whether it be July 4 or New Year’s Eve.”
“This team has brought an extraordinary amount of energy, pride, excitement to every corner of our city,” the mayor said. “We want this to be a memorable night for all the right reasons.”
A watch party scheduled outside MSG for Game 3 on Monday night was moved to Bryant Park thanks to President Trump attending the game.
Asked whether he holds Trump responsible for the Knicks’ loss, Mamdani laughed — but declined to blame the president.
“I’ve made clear my complaints about the refs,” Mamdani said. “I’m hopeful tonight we’re going to see a different game.” — Janaki Chadha
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
WHAT TWEETS?: Darializa Avila Chevalier, Mamdani’s pick to unseat Rep. Adriano Espaillat, has come under plenty of fire for her old social media posts.
Mamdani claims he hasn’t seen them.
The posts in question include tweets where Chevalier wrote “F—k Kamala Harris,” criticized black and Arab men for “fetishizing ugly colonizer women,” and described wiping her hand on the American flag. They’re the subject of an Espaillat ad in which a narrator says, “Meet the real Darializa, the one she tried to delete.”
Asked about her social media imprint, Mamdani told reporters, “No, I have not seen those tweets.”
“What I’ve heard from her, and what I know a lot of others in the district have heard from her, is that her views have evolved, and that the campaign that she’s running on is reflective of what she’s going to be fighting for,” Mamdani said.
The mayor has opted against endorsing in other races, including the one for the Manhattan congressional seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler.
Gracie Mansion is in that district, and while Mamdani said he plans to vote in the Democratic primary, he has not yet decided on who he’ll back. The candidates include Assemblymembers Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg and Trump critic George Conway.
“I’m one of those classic yet-to-make-a-decision voters that frustrate campaigns so dearly,” the mayor said. — Janaki Chadha
IN OTHER NEWS
— THERE’S NO ‘I’ IN TEAM: Brad Lander says he is not endorsing fellow congressional challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, despite putting out a joint “Mamdani’s team” ad with her. (Jewish Insider)
— DIY BALLOT LINE: Shut out of major third party endorsements, candidates for NY-21 Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien are battling in court over the validity of their made up ballot line names. (Times Union)
— NO EASY EXIT: Uber is suing New York City to block a new driver protection law, arguing it would force the company to keep dangerous drivers on the road. (Reuters)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
President Donald Trump is tentatively set to visit Alabama for a political rally next week, a curious move in a deep-red state as his party fights for control of Congress in several battlegrounds.
The event is penciled in for Oct. 2 in Mobile, but the plans have not yet been finalized and are subject to change, according to two people with direct knowledge of the preparations who were granted anonymity to disclose private planning.
An October rally in Alabama would be a somewhat confounding decision for the president. The GOP has found itself having to play defense in their own territory recently, with Democratic candidates are seriously competing for Senate seats in normally red states like Alaska and Texas. But Alabama has not been considered a state where Democrats have any real shot at winning any statewide office.
Spokespeople for the White House and Republican National Committee did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The rally could help shore up support for state Rep. Rhett Marques, who is locked in a somewhat competitive race with Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures. Marques is still seen to have the advantage after the Supreme Court allowed the state to use a House map that reconfigured Figures’ majority-Black district earlier this year. Mobile, though, is outside of that district.
Marques’ campaign and Figures’ campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
A foray into Alabama would not be the first time that the president has tried to shore up support in a solidly Republican state this cycle — he rallied last month in South Carolina for Sen. Darline Graham during her primary runoff — but as the general election season has begun he has also started to visit battleground states. Last week, he rallied alongside GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley in North Carolina.
Trump’s potential campaign visit would follow Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy’s announcement last week that the Trump administration has granted a $2.5 billion loan to the Alabama Toll Road, Bridge, and Tunnel Authority. That money will fund the construction of the Mobile River Bridge — the largest infrastructure project in the state’s history. The president is also fond of GOP Rep. Barry Moore, who is running for Senate in the state. Another close ally, Sen. Tommy Tuberville, is the Republican nominee for governor. He’s running against Democratic former Sen. Doug Jones, who he unseated in 2020.
Politics
Young men are swinging away hard from Republicans, pessimistic about economy, new poll finds
Republicans’ 2024 gains among young men have evaporated — and that could have instant ramifications this November, according to a new Cygnal poll.
President Donald Trump narrowly carried young men in 2024, according to exit polls, a big swing toward the GOP from past elections. But Democrats’ generic ballot lead among male likely voters ages 18-30 now sits at 57%-40%, according to the new survey.
Trump’s favorability is underwater at just 38%-55%, and Republicans’ net favorability among the demographic now sits at -9 points, with 40% viewing the party favorably and 49% unfavorably.
One silver lining for the GOP: Among all registered voters sampled, including those least likely to turn out in November, the Democratic generic ballot lead is much smaller, 44% to 41%.
“It is not a very good electorate, if you’re the Republican Party, among the people who are the most determined to vote,” said Alex Tarascio, pollster and principal at Cygnal, in an interview with Blue Light News ahead of the poll’s release during Thursday’s Symposium on Young American Men.
Young men alone likely won’t determine control of Congress; they make up a fraction of the electorate, and they are less likely to vote than women of the same age or their older counterparts. But that lack of enthusiasm itself is a warning sign for Republicans, who will need to motivate their base ahead of November if they wish to maintain control of Congress.
The young men sampled are overwhelmingly concerned about cost-of-living issues — the same reason that many swung toward the GOP two years ago.
When given a list of options and asked which will matter most in determining their vote in November, a wide plurality — 29% — selected “inflation and the cost of living,” and another 14% chose “housing costs and being able to afford a place to live.” When asked what policies would make the biggest difference in their lives, the top answers again deal with the economy: The most-selected options were lowering the cost of goods, lowering housing costs and cutting taxes.
Many young men feel pessimistic about their ability to achieve success. When asked if they feel the rules in this country are set up to work for or against young men, 43% said they feel the rules are set up against them to 47% who said the rules are set up in their favor.
That pessimism bleeds into how they view other institutions. Both the Democratic Party (-1) and Republican Party (-9) have net-negative favorability among the demographic, and the White House’s current occupants are even more unpopular: Vice President JD Vance sits at 37% favorability with -10 net favorability, while Trump is at 38% favorability with -17 net.
“Young men are pretty down on institutions and political figures, and this one isn’t any exception to that,” Tarascio said.
Republicans successfully targeted young men and low-propensity voters in 2024 to help propel them to victory largely in part by having Trump sit for interviews with podcast hosts and influencers popular with young men. Trump has yet to return to those forums en masse ahead of the midterms, but he’s repeatedly told voters to pretend as if he’s on the ballot in November.
But Trump may no longer be the motivator he once was for turning out young, male, low-propensity voters. Among those surveyed who were least likely to vote, Trump’s net favorability is -22, lower than the respondents most likely to vote, where his net favorability is -19.
“If Trump gets in front of them, I don’t think it’s a bad bet, but for some of these people it could backfire,” Tarascio said.
The poll was conducted Sept. 15-18 with a sample of 800 registered male voters ages 18-30. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is shifting its focus away from the North Carolina and Georgia Senate races as it works to shore up red states like Texas and flip other Democratic-held seats.
In a closed-door meeting Wednesday, Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the NRSC, told Senate Republicans that the campaign arm will focus its spending going forward on defending GOP seats in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas and trying to flip the Democratic-held seats of Michigan and New Hampshire, according to four people in the room who were granted anonymity to share private details.
That list notably leaves out North Carolina GOP nominee Michael Whatley’s battle against Democrat Roy Cooper and Georgia GOP nominee Mike Collins’ effort to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
Scott’s briefing is the clearest sign yet that Republicans have deprioritized the two states, as POLITICO has reported, while senior Republicans grow increasingly resigned to the possibility of losing those races. It’s a remarkable shift: President Donald Trump carried Georgia twice in 2016 and 2024 and North Carolina over the last three presidential elections.
In deprioritizing North Carolina, the NRSC is effectively ceding a state that Democrats haven’t won in the Senate since 2008.
Still, other GOP groups with massive war chests, including Trump’s MAGA Inc., could pick up the slack.
Scott also shared with the senators polling showing Republicans are locked in tight battles in several other key races, which tracks with much of the public polling, according to the four people.
For example, one poll found that GOP Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio is still trailing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Scott also showed polling indicating Republican John Sununu is essentially neck-and-neck with Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, a seat Republicans are laser-focused on trying to flip.
NRSC did not respond to a request for comment. Neither did Collins’ campaign.
“As Roy Cooper said earlier this year about U.S. Senate races in North Carolina, ‘Democrats are often ahead until they are not.’ And then just last week Cooper, correctly, observed, ‘We know a lot of undecided voters lean Republican.’ We’re confident we will have the resources to get our message out to North Carolina voters and win,” said Whatley Spokesman DJ Griffin in a statement.
Georgia GOP party chair Josh McKoon dismissed the notion that his state was being deprioritized by Republicans in Washington, even as he acknowledged beating Ossoff will be a challenge.
“Every cycle, someone in Washington leaks that they’re thinking about moving money,” he said in a text message. “What matters is who shows up — and what the actual numbers say.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is set to headline a fundraiser for Collins in Atlanta on Thursday, alongside the state’s popular Republican governor, Brian Kemp. The Collins campaign is also making the case that one in 10 Georgia voters — who backed Trump in 2024 and plan to vote for Jackson — are still “up for grabs,” according to a memo obtained by POLITICO.
“The goal in Georgia is to strike a balance where you are spending as little for Senate as possible while not derailing Rick Jackson’s, so far, very strong bid for Governor in a difficult environment,” said a GOP pollster granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape. Public polling shows the governor’s race has much tighter margins, with Jackson leading Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms in some recent surveys.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost his Senate primary to Trump-backed Ken Paxton, was also in the room. He later told Blue Light News that the party has to make tough decisions.
“At some point I think the people spending that money are going to have to make hard choices and figure out where the money can have the biggest impact, and certainly Texas is the most expensive,” Cornyn said.
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