Politics
They don’t like Trump. But they really, really like Vance.
Since before former President Donald Trump announced Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate, conventional wisdom has held that this wasn’t a great pick. Vance is “historically unpopular,” Democrats have charged, and even some Republicans have been unenthusiastic.
Yet there’s a group of voters for whom Vance, not Trump, is the GOP ticket’s attraction — its sole attraction. These never-Trump maybe-Vance voters aren’t numerous, and they may not yet know how they’ll vote. But in a close race, their decisions could make a difference.
I stumbled upon this group by chance: I happen to know a few people thinking this way in real life. When I sketched the voter profile on Substack, the response was swift and surprising, both for me and for voters who didn’t realize there were others like them. This is a small sampling and not a scientific poll, mind you, but the cumulative nature of the collected testimonials reveals a certain type. “Dang, you described me perfectly here,” commented Thomas, an evangelical dad from Georgia.
These never-Trump maybe-Vance voters aren’t numerous. But in a close race, their decisions could make a difference.
Like Thomas, typical never-Trump maybe-Vance voters are men. They’re millennials, or perhaps younger Gen X or older Gen Z. They’re married fathers (or want to be) who went to college and have white-collar jobs. And they’re churchgoing, but probably not in the charismatic stream of Protestantism where Trump is the subject of devotion and prophecy.
Crucially, these voters have all the moral objections and gut aversion to Trump that conservative Christians were expected to have in 2016. They likely don’t call themselves never-Trumpers and aren’t preoccupied with criticizing the former president as self-identified never-Trumpers tend to be. But they’ve never voted for Trump, didn’t like him in office and don’t want him re-elected.
Vance, however, is intriguing for them, and not only on policy. With some issues, mostly around trade and labor, Vance’s policies may actually be a drawback. Other positions, like his skepticism of U.S. military intervention abroad, might be pluses. But the big draw is Vance’s orientation around fatherhood and family, the way he links children and the American dream and his clear interest in pronatalist family policy and fertility rates.
Vance’s views on “the value of family resonate strongly with me,” said Eddie Becker, who attends a nondenominational church and expressed dismay over ongoing Trump support among fellow Christians and Republicans. “Aside from snarky ‘childless cat ladies’-type remarks,” Becker said of Vance, “I believe he does care about families and values children.”
For Christina in Boise, Idaho, who told me she fits this voter profile except for her sex, Vance’s disparagement of “childless cat ladies” merely signaled his seriousness about family. “I admire his love of his wife, children, Mamaw and his faith,” she said. “I see people balk at the mere idea of children, and this scares me.” In comparison, for her, Vance “is spot on.”
How Vance talks about family is also part of why these voters identify with him, which is a significant element of his appeal. Rob Spangler, a Maryland Presbyterian and father of four, highlighted that sense of identification when explaining to me his interest in Vance. Thomas added that watching Vance “is the first time I’ve seen someone in politics and thought, ‘That could be me.’”
Beyond the family vibes, some of this alignment is as simple as commonalities of age and stage: Vance is a young father and the first millennial on a major-party ticket after decades of boomer dominance. But that level of resonance could’ve happened with any peer-aged candidate, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Vivek Ramaswamy. These voters’ affinity for Vance goes deeper.
Vance is a young father and the first millennial on a major party ticket after decades of boomer dominance.
Like them, Vance is bookish and speaks seriously about his Christian faith. He’s the first viable contender for high office with whom they’d like to have a beer. In Vance, they see someone — in starkest contrast to Trump — who could be a friend under other circumstances. Several told me that when Vance is attacked as “weird,” they bristle a bit. If he’s weird, they’re weird, too.
It’s hard to say how many never-Trump maybe-Vance voters there are. Maybe the most useful data comes from a Cygnal survey last month of 1,500 likely voters. In most demographics, including unmarried men and men who didn’t go to college, Trump’s favorability ratings were statistically identical to or higher than Vance’s.
Among married men and men who went to college, however, Vance had a more favorable rating by a 4- to 5-percentage-point margin. Cygnal also isolated answers from “double haters,” the small (and shrinking) subset of voters who reject both major-party candidates. For them, Trump’s favorability sits at zero, but Vance’s is as high as 33%.
These aren’t large numbers. I don’t think this group numbers in the millions, not even at the national scale. But that polling suggests there could be enough never-Trump maybe-Vance voters for their decisions to matter in the five states, as of this writing, with less than 1-point gaps in the presidential polls.
The question, then, is whether never loses to maybe — whether they stick to an eight-year aversion or decide that voting for Trump is a price worth paying to vote for Vance. The choice may well turn on how they expect a Trump-Vance administration to run. Would Vance wield real power, perhaps becoming president himself? Or would he be relegated to frippery and dirty work for a lame duck?
The voters I spoke with were mostly undecided. Luis, a millennial in Virginia, expects to cast a write-in vote. Though he likes how Vance recognizes “the way modern life makes various social ties harder to form,” particularly “regarding the birth rate,” the candidate’s election denial and vitriol are obstacles to earning his vote this year.
Thomas is leaning third-party for president but favoring the GOP farther down the ballot. Christina won’t commit until she’s in the voting booth, but she said she’ll probably vote “Trump-Vance and then go to confession and pray some more for our country.” Becker is still mulling options, but he’s disappointed Vance failed to “counter the Trump cult” in the GOP. “All I can say for sure,” he concluded, “is that I won’t be voting for Donald Trump.”
Spangler, too, remains undecided. On the debate stage, Vance struck him as reasonable and diplomatic, a sharp contrast to his running mate. “I’m still incredibly conflicted about it,” Spangler told me. “My mail-in ballot stares at me almost every day.”
Bonnie Kristian is the editorial director of ideas and books at Christianity Today. She is the author of “Untrustworthy” and a fellow at Defense Priorities.
Politics
Rick Jackson cannonballed into the governor race. It’s having ripple effects across Georgia.
HOMER, Georgia — The last few players of the day were finishing their rounds at the Chimney Oaks Golf Club when a steady wind picked up by the practice putting green. Pin flags bent to a near snap. A sleek helicopter slowly descended onto the manicured lawn.
Rick Jackson had arrived.
The billionaire health care executive turned GOP gubernatorial candidate was making his grand entrance as a headliner for a recent event hosted by the Banks County Republican Party. In many ways, it mimicked the same disruptive force with which he entered the race two months earlier: loud, ostentatious and out of nowhere.
He rose from being a virtually unknown contender to a frontrunner in the polls by spending $50 million of his own money to flood the airwaves, social media and mailboxes with ads — nearly double the amount of all the candidates in both primaries for governor combined, according to an AdImpact analysis. He’s cutting into Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ margins with ultra-conservative voters and he’s complicating Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger’s path to making the June run-off.

An already crowded race has become all about Jackson.
“Anytime you’ve got somebody spending $100 million on TV and mailers and everything else, obviously you’re forced to talk about him,” Jones said in an interview with Blue Light News.
As Jackson has upended the governor’s race, he’s also taking up so much of voters’ attention that Georgia Republicans in other races are worried about their own chances of breaking through.
Voters and strategists alike say they just can’t avoid Jackson’s presence anywhere, not even at home. His media blitz is alarming fellow Republicans, half a dozen of whom told Blue Light News that Jackson is endangering Republicans in down ballot races — and a critical Senate contest — that will likely be decided by razor-thin margins.
“Down the ballot, it’s going to be extremely difficult for candidates for the other constitutional offices to get any kind of media attention, which creates a scenario where many of these races are essentially crapshoots,” said Spiro Amburn, a longtime Georgia Republican strategist and statehouse official who is neutral in the race.

A Georgia-based Republican operative involved with the governor’s race suggested that Jackson is partly the reason for the GOP’s messy Senate primary because the candidates are struggling to “get traction” and make headway with paid media. Another GOP strategist said Jackson’s spending, particularly in a primary, has far surpassed any precedent: “I watched 30 minutes of TV the other day and had six Rick Jackson ads. It’s just on a different level.”
“He’s sucked up so much oxygen that it’s really hard for any other Republican to operate right now,” said a third GOP strategist involved in races up and down the ballot in the state.
Jackson, in an interview, said he had not considered how his spending might be affecting other races and said he’d ultimately help them across the finish line when he’s the GOP nominee.
“Anytime you have a lot of money on TV, it’s going to raise the bar for everybody. Unfortunately, it’s just a necessity,” he said unapologetically. Speaking with Blue Light News after the Banks County event last week, Jackson shrugged off any concerns about his money and said he will do “whatever it takes” to win.
“When I win, that’s when I’m done,” he added.
Rick Jackson’s money vs. Burt Jones’ Trump endorsement
Perhaps the biggest target in the face of Jackson’s onslaught is Jones, who used to lead the governor’s race by most standards. He now finds himself neck and neck with the billionaire in recent polling, as Jackson sells himself as another Trump-aligned candidate — even though he and the president don’t have much of a close, personal relationship.
“He’s not portraying himself as what he really is,” Jones told Blue Light News. “He’s not this hard-nosed conservative guy. He is somebody who’s dependent on state and federal contracts to make his living, and he’s trying to make himself out to be some outsider and doesn’t know how the political process works.”
Other Jones allies have been leaning hard into attacking Jackson as a big-spending outsider. At a fish fry last week in rural Atkinson County, state Rep. James Burchette encouraged voters to question why a candidate would spend so much money to “take control of the state of Georgia.” Sen. Russ Goodman warned that “all this stuff that you see in the mailbox — it’s nothing but a bunch of lies.”
But even with Jackson’s big-spending approach, Trump’s stamp of approval still holds immeasurable power with the MAGA base.
The president has reaffirmed his support for Jones: “All these guys are coming in now loaded up with some money. Who the hell knows how much money he’s got? But Burt Jones has been here and been with you and been with me right from the beginning,” the president said at an event in Rome, Georgia in February.
Parked outside the fish fry, Jones’ campaign bus was emblazoned with that reminder: “Trump Endorsed.”

Jackson is betting on voters like Bruce Brooker, a 72-year-old farmer from Atkinson County: intrigued by Jackson, but ultimately sticking with the lieutenant governor out of loyalty to the president.
“I would probably vote for [Jackson] if Trump had not endorsed Burt,” he said. “I like the fact that he started with nothing and crawled and climbed through like any. He knows what hard work is. I’m not being critical of him. I admire him.”
Jackson, meanwhile, is trying to prove his MAGA credentials to Georgia Republicans to siphon off enough of Jones’ voters to win. Over in Homer, where Jackson was addressing a crowd of about 200 voters at the country club, attendees peppered him with questions about his relationship with Trump.


One man in the crowd asked Jackson to explain why he had donated to former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) — a longtime Trump critic who voted to impeach the president during his first term. Another questioned why he had only donated to the president after the 2024 election.
“Just like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, I will admit I was late to the Trump Train. There’s no question about it,” Jackson responded. “But I gave a million dollars to him. That’s not an insignificant concept of supporting somebody.”
The non-MAGA candidates say they have an opening
Others in the governor’s race who are less interested in wooing the MAGA masses — including Raffensperger, who has rebuked efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and Attorney General Chris Carr — are not as concerned about Jackson undercutting their campaigns.
Carr campaign spokesperson Julia Mazzone said in a statement that Jackson’s entry into the race “devastates Burt Jones’ campaign, but it does not change the fundamentals for us.” The attorney general has a long-shot chance of advancing out of the primary, however, as polls show him in a single-digit fourth place.
A March 30 memo penned by Raffensberger’s campaign manager and obtained by Blue Light News claimed that the Jackson-Jones cagefight has created an opening for other candidates to lead on policy substance. The secretary has avoided injecting himself into the MAGA mêlée, instead keeping his profile comparatively low as he travels the state to speak with voters.

“I have my own lane, and I feel good where we are,” Raffensberger said in an interview. “We travel all over the state, reaching voters, talking to people, making sure that people understand my message is about making sure we keep Georgia affordable and safe, and I’m best positioned to do that at the end of the day.”
After all, Raffensperger has a history of overcoming Trump-backed challengers and cruising to a general election victory.
“I’m going to be in the runoff,” he added, deflecting any and all concerns with finality.
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