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Johnson tries to avoid McCarthy pitfalls as he preps for a speaker showdown

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Mike Johnson is trying to avoid the mistakes of his predecessor as he faces the toughest test of his political career on Friday.

With his bid to keep his speakership on the line — despite support from President-elect Donald Trump — the Louisiana Republican is looking to sidestep the kinds of side deals with conservative Republicans that ultimately cost Kevin McCarthy his own political future. But that’s a hard tightrope to cross.

Fiscal hawks want Johnson to make commitments, including giving them greater control over how bills move to the floor and slashing spending — pledges that could be untenable for Johnson with a razor-thin GOP margin. And while conservatives believe that Johnson is keeping an open mind on some of their demands, they’re also concerned about whether he will keep the three conservative rebels on the House Rules Committee, according to one Republican with knowledge of the matter, granted anonymity to detail private conversations.

The stakes are huge, and no one knows how it will play out in the coming hours. Around a dozen Republicans are on the fence, despite Johnson working the last several days to lock down the 218 votes he needs. He can only afford to have one Republican vote for someone else on the floor, but several on Thursday indicated they won’t announce how they will vote in advance.

While Johnson says his plan is to win the speakership right away on Friday, he’s also signaling that in order to get there he might show more flexibility with GOP hardliners.

”People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things, and I’m open to that,” he said Thursday as he left a meeting with hardliners. He added that if he doesn’t win on the first ballot, “that’s the process of Congress with a small majority.”

Given the uncertainty, some GOP lawmakers worry that a drawn-out speakership fight will force Johnson to cave and agree to policies that would make it harder for Republicans to pass priorities on the border, energy and taxes. Those goals will already be difficult, as they wrangle with an incredibly thin margin in the House.

The speaker race is House Republicans’ first real test of their ability to unify in the new Congress.

“We need to get that taken care of, get it behind us, and get on with our work on policy,” Republican Policy Committee Chair Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) said in a brief interview, adding that a messy speaker fight would “certainly” make accomplishing the party’s policy goals harder.

Another House Republican lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak candidly, added that Friday “needs to go smoothly or this year is going to be tragic.”

Yet the early demands are already piling up for Johnson: Rep. Chip Roy is angling to be chair of the Rules Committee, while the speaker’s allies urge him to remove the Texas Republican from the panel entirely. The other two conservative members of the panel aren’t clear on their futures either: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), the lone Republican who has already said publicly he’ll vote against Johnson, has signaled he expects he’ll likely lose his seat, while Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) recently told Blue Light News that he would like to stay on but he hasn’t gotten guidance from Johnson.

Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, who is known for regularly causing a ruckus ahead of key votes and then folding, publicly served Johnson with a laundry list of demands last month in order to secure her support. A close friend of Massie’s, Spartz is also seen as the most unpredictable of the undecided members.

“We had a good meeting with the speaker, discussed some things. In a lot of things we agree,” Rep. Victoria Spartz said.

Spartz met with Johnson behind closed doors on Thursday, telling reporters after that she will make a decision about the speaker’s race on Friday — one of many who seem to be waiting until the last minute to weigh in.

“We had a good meeting with the speaker, discussed some things. In a lot of things we agree,” Spartz said.

GOP members from across the conference are warning Johnson against any bigger concessions, like the kind they argue eventually crippled McCarthy’s speakership.

“It will cause problems elsewhere,” said one Republican lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

It’s not just the speaker’s race that’s presenting early headaches for Johnson. House lawmakers also have to approve a rules package that governs how the chamber operates, an effort that won’t get Democratic help. Johnson similarly needs near-unanimity to move forward on the package of rules that leaders released on Wednesday, and Massie and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) are both already raising concerns. Johnson can’t pass it if he loses both of them.

There’s a real risk for Johnson if he bends to the demands of his hardliners. His predecessor, McCarthy, cut a flurry of deals before and during the 15 rounds it took him to win the gavel, including making it easier to oust a speaker and giving his hardliners plum positions on the Rules Committee. But those agreements ultimately planted the seeds for the House GOP’s perennial chaos over the past two years, and centrists accused McCarthy of bowing too far to his antagonists, sacrificing leadership’s power and still getting ousted just 10 months later.

Several of Johnson’s holdouts were tightlipped on Thursday as they left his office, though one acknowledged that Johnson “has work to do” to remain speaker. Another, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), added that the group is “keeping our powder dry.” Asked if they feared retribution from Trump if they do not back the incoming president’s pick, Reps. Michael Cloud (R-Texas) and Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) shrugged off the threat. Cloud later clarified in a tweet that he doesn’t want to delay Trump’s agenda but is instead seeking “structural changes” to “how the House operates.”

Norman declined to say if the group would settle for verbal commitments or if they needed to see something in writing, but said they were dug in on the predictable areas: “fiscal discipline, securing the border, pass reconciliation.”

“The president has got four years, but in reality he’s got 12 to 14 months,” he added.

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

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Congress

Elizabeth Warren backs Mallory McMorrow in Michigan Senate primary

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Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is wading into Michigan’s closely contested Democratic Senate primary, backing state Sen. Mallory McMorrow over two rivals.

It’s a somewhat counterintuitive endorsement for the progressive U.S. senator who has made her backing of Medicare for All a core part of her political identity. McMorrow opposes Medicare for All, while Abdul El-Sayed, one of McMorrow’s opponents, supports it.

But the endorsement is a coup for McMorrow as she seeks to win over the progressive wing of the party in her bid to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. McMorrow has now secured endorsements from four senators — with Warren joining Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico and Peter Welch of Vermont — more than opponents El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens.

Warren said in a statement her relationship with McMorrow goes back nearly a decade.

“I remember first calling Michigan State Senator McMorrow after she flipped a Republican-held seat in 2018, and I was immediately inspired by her ideas, her plans, and her fight to make a real difference,” she said. “Mallory is both a fighter and a winner, and I’m proud to endorse her because she’s the proven leader Michigan needs in the United States Senate.”

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Capitol agenda: Tulsi Gabbard takes the hot seat

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Tulsi Gabbard heads into Senate Intelligence on Wednesday facing one of the most fraught moments of her tenure as director of national intelligence.

The longtime anti-interventionist is set to be the main character at Wednesday morning’s worldwide threats hearing when she appears with other administration officials, after former top aide Joe Kent resigned as director of the National Counterterrorism Center over the Iran war.

Kent’s resignation has raised the question of how much longer Gabbard will serve in the administration. She’s largely been silent since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran in late February, and she’s been kept out of military planning on Iran since the U.S. struck nuclear sites in the country last summer.

“Both Kent and Gabbard have had less and less influence,” one House Republican granted anonymity to speak openly said. “They’ve been sidelined.” Gabbard will appear before House Intelligence Thursday.

Gabbard’s testimony last March that downplayed Iran’s nuclear weapons program — prompting a “she’s wrong” from President Donald Trump — is poised to be revisited by senators at Wednesday morning’s hearing, as are her anti-war positions.

“The president made the right move based upon the information that we’ve all seen in classified sessions,” said South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, an intel committee Republican. He signaled that Gabbard could be asked about her previous assessment at the hearing.

Around the same time in Dirksen this morning, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) will be in the hot seat as he testifies on his nomination to replace Kristi Noem as Homeland Security secretary.

Senate Homeland Security is expected to quickly approve the nomination Thursday, though it’s TBD to what extent Mullin will get bipartisan support beyond Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).

“We actually have a pretty good working relationship, and have worked on projects together, but we do have a lot of questions,” said Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, a committee Democrat who has yet to say how he’ll vote. “Largely it’s like, who really is in charge of DHS? … Is it going to be Stephen Miller’s in charge?”

What else we’re watching: 

— House gets a FISA briefing: Trump officials will host a classified briefing for House members at 3:30 p.m. on the administration’s push for a clean reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, due to expire April 20, as conservatives threaten to tank the effort.

Speaker Mike Johnson said he believes his members who are currently opposed to a clean, 18-month extension will ultimately vote for the party-line rule. But two House Republicans are already publicly vowing to oppose the procedural rule to tee up a clean FISA reauthorization, which leaders are aiming to put on the floor next week.

— DOJ officials brief House Oversight: Attorney General Pam Bondi and her deputy Todd Blanche will be on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to brief House Oversight Committee members on the Justice Department’s ongoing Jeffrey Epstein investigation.

It comes the day after the chair, Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), subpoenaed Bondi to testify under oath as part of the committee’s own Epstein probe. But a GOP spokesperson for the committee said that Wednesday’s briefing, which was scheduled at DOJ’s request, won’t be a substitute for Bondi’s future testimony.

John Sakellariadis, Meredith Lee Hill, Mia McCarthy and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.

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The Senate’s marathon elections debate is dividing Republicans, not Democrats

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Senate Republicans want to use their party-line elections bill as a cudgel against Democrats. They need to stop sparring with each other first.

Republicans kicked off debate Tuesday on the SAVE America Act, a House-passed bill that would create new proof-of-citizenship and photo ID requirements in order for Americans to participate in federal elections. In a bid to pacify House and Senate conservatives, a fervent base flooding their social media mentions and even President Donald Trump — who views the legislation as his “No. 1 priority” — Senate Republicans are expected to spend days, if not weeks, discussing the legislation.

The chances the push will succeed in passing the bill, which Democrats uniformly oppose, are miniscule. And it’s not at all clear that spending two weeks on the bill will be enough to quell what has been an intense GOP-on-GOP pressure campaign that has sucked up much of the focus in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s vote.

“We’ll find out, you know?” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said when asked if he knew if it would be enough to satisfy Trump, who has repeatedly urged Republicans to skirt the 60-vote filibuster to pass the bill. “What I promised from the very beginning is we’ll get it up and we will have a vote. I can’t guarantee the result.”

He added that Trump and others also “want us to nuke the legislative filibuster in order to do it, and that’s also something I’ve been very clear about — there just aren’t the votes.”

Spending more than a week of floor time on a bill that is all but guaranteed to fail isn’t typically how the Senate operates. Usually, to show legislation supported by their own party can’t clear the chamber’s supermajority threshold, Senate leaders quickly move to end debate and prove it can’t get 60 votes.

But Senate Republicans are under intense pressure to show that they are fighting Democrats for “election integrity” — an issue they believe polls well for them but appears to be causing little heartburn for Democrats so far. Some believe forcing a “talking filibuster” where opponents have to hold the floor indefinitely will force the opposition to cave.

Democratic senators shrugged off the strategy Tuesday, vowing that no matter how long Republicans drag out the debate, there is no way the election bill can garner 60 Senate votes.

“If MAGA Republicans want to bog down the Senate over a debate on voter suppression, Democrats are ready. We’re ready to be here all day, all night, as long as it takes,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters. “Senate Democrats will never let this rotten bill move through this body.”

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said in an interview that Democrats will “spend the next two weeks painting them as totally out of touch.”

The Senate is expected to stay in session late into the night and into the weekend as senators hammer each other over the bill. Thune has been careful not to outline a date certain for the end of the debate, and both parties expect the process to eat up much of the next week and a half.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) predicted “late nights with us having folks on the floor as long as Republicans do … being ready for procedural motions that we’ll have to respond to in real time.”

Democrats have filed dozens of amendments to the bill, including requiring proof of citizenship to purchase an assault weapon, restoring lapsed Obamacare tax credits and tying the bill’s implementation date to the price of gas. But unlike a true “talking filibuster,” where they would be able to offer those amendments and force Republicans to take politically uncomfortable votes, Thune took steps Tuesday to keep tight control of the debate by calling up a series of Republican amendments.

Both parties have procedural curveballs they could throw. If no one is speaking, Republicans could try to move immediately to a final vote on the bill at a simple majority, while Democrats could try to adjourn or set the bill aside altogether. They are likely to pause the debate later this week by forcing a privileged vote on a resolution limiting Trump’s ability to take military action in Iran without congressional approval.

But those actions appear destined to fall short of the hardball tactics demanded by the party’s MAGA wing, including Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) — who is clamoring for the Senate to stay in session until Democrats capitulate. And even some of Lee’s allies are starting to acknowledge the bill is barreling toward a 60-vote hurdle that it can’t clear.

“If we do not act on an issue that commands this level of support … we should not be surprised when the American people lose confidence in our willingness to fight for them,” Lee told fellow Republicans from the Senate floor Tuesday night.

The initial hours of debate Tuesday were nothing out of the ordinary. Senators agreed unanimously to structure the debate, rotating which party had time to speak about the bill. There were long stretches of floor silence as the evening wore into night, and the chamber adjourned as it typically does at the end of the day. The Senate won’t come back into session until noon Wednesday.

Across the Capitol, the hardball tactics weren’t any more effective. Some House Republicans vowed to block any Senate bill to pressure their counterparts into passing the elections overhaul, but two Senate bills already cleared the chamber this week.

Senate Republicans, meanwhile, are struggling to resolve internal divisions. Some of those are tactical, but others are substantive. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has declared her opposition to the bill as a federal overreach into traditionally state-run elections. And Trump’s push to largely ban mail-in voting is a fierce point of contention that came up during the GOP’s closed-door lunch Tuesday, according to three attendees granted anonymity to describe the private discussion.

Amid backlash from several GOP senators, Republicans reworked a mail voting amendment with the White House’s blessing to try to assuage concerned members. The change includes a state-defined “hardship” exemption from in-person voting, according to a copy of the updated proposal obtained by Blue Light News. The amendment is expected to get a vote as part of the Senate’s marathon debate, while internal discussions continue about two other Trump-requested additions: restricting trans women from competing in women’s sports and banning gender-affirming surgeries for minors.

That would still fall short of the talking filibuster demanded by Lee, an army of online supporters and Trump, who spoke with Lee Monday about the bill. The Utah Republican said Monday night, “If your senators don’t support using the talking filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act, you might need to replace them.”

Asked about Lee’s comments, Thune urged his party to redirect their fury.

“I prefer to have our fights with Democrats,” Thune said. “And I’m always someone who believes it’s far better for us to have a majority in the United States Senate.”

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