The Dictatorship
Stock market today: Wall Street hits records despite tariff talk
By STAN CHOE
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks rose to records Tuesday after Donald Trump’s latest talk about tariffs created only some ripples on Wall Street, even if they could roil the global economy were they to take effect.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to top the all-time high it set a couple weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 123 points, or 0.3%, to its own record set the day before, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.6% as Microsoft and Big Tech led the way.
Stock markets abroad mostly fell after President-elect Trump said he plans to impose sweeping new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China once he takes office. But the movements were mostly modest. Stock indexes were down 0.1% in Shanghai and nearly flat in Hong Kong, while Canada’s main index edged down by less than 0.1%.
Trump has often praised the use of tariffsbut investors are weighing whether his latest threat will actually become policy or is just an opening point for negotiations. For now, the market seems to be taking it more as the latter.
AP AUDIO: Stock market today: Wall Street hangs near its records despite tariff talk
The AP’s Seth Sutel reports Wall Street hangs near its records despite tariff talk.
The consequences otherwise for markets and the global economy could be painful.
Unless the United States can prepare alternatives for the autos, energy products and other goods that come from Mexico, Canada and China, such tariffs would raise the price of imported items all at once and make households poorer, according to Carl Weinberg and Rubeela Farooqi, economists at High Frequency Economics.
They would also hurt profit margins for U.S. companies, while raising the threat of retaliatory tariffs by other countries. And unlike tariffs in Trump’s first term, his latest proposal would affect products across the board.
General Motors sank 9%, and Ford Motor fell 2.6% because both import automobiles from Mexico. Constellation Brands, which sells Modelo and other Mexican beer brands in the United States, dropped 3.3%. The value of the Mexican peso fell 1.8% against the U.S. dollar.
Beyond the pain such tariffs would cause U.S. households and businesses, they could also push the Federal Reserve to slow or even halt its cuts to interest rates. The Fed had just begun easing its main interest rate from a two-decade high a couple months ago to offer support for the job market. While lower interest rates can boost the economy, they can also offer more fuel for inflation.
“Many” officials at the Fed’s last meeting earlier this month said they should lower rates gradually, according to minutes of the meeting released Tuesday afternoon.
The talk about tariffs overshadowed another mixed set of profit reports from U.S. retailers that answered few questions about how much more shoppers can keep spending. They’ll need to stay resilient after helping the economy avoid a recession, despite the high interest rates imposed by the Fed to get inflation under control.
A report on Tuesday from the Conference Board said confidence among U.S. consumers improved in November, but not by as much as economists expected.
Kohl’s tumbled 17% after its results for the latest quarter fell short of analysts’ expectations. CEO Tom Kingsbury said sales remain soft for apparel and footwear. A day earlier, Kingsbury said he plans to step down as CEO in January. Ashley Buchanan, CEO of Michaels and a retail veteran, will replace him.
Best Buy fell 4.9% after likewise falling short of analysts’ expectations. Dick’s Sporting Goods topped forecasts for the latest quarter thanks to a strong back-to-school season, but its stock lost an early gain to fall 1.4%.
Still, more stocks rose in the S&P 500 than fell. J.M. Smucker had one of the biggest gains and climbed 5.7% after topping analysts’ expectations for the latest quarter. CEO Mark Smucker credited strength for its Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Café Bustelo and Jif brands.
Big Tech stocks also helped prop up U.S. indexes. Gains of 3.2% for Amazon and 2.2% for Microsoft were the two strongest forces lifting the S&P 500.
All told, the S&P 500 rose 34.26 points to 6,021.63. The Dow gained 123.74 to 44,860.31, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 119.46 to 19,174.30.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady following their big drop from a day before driven by relief following Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury inched up to 4.29% from 4.28% late Monday, but it’s still well below the 4.41% level where it ended last week.
In the crypto market, bitcoin continued to pull back after topping $99,000 for the first time late last week. It’s since dipped back toward $91,000, according to CoinDesk.
It’s a sharp turnaround from the bonanza that initially took over the crypto market following Trump’s election. That boom had also appeared to have spilled into some corners of the stock market. Strategists at Barclays Capital pointed to stocks of unprofitable companies, along with other areas that can be caught up in bursts of optimism by smaller-pocketed “retail” investors.
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AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.
The Pentagon has told Congress the war in Iran cost $29 billion through mid-May. Outside experts think the real number could be two to three times higher — and so far, the Defense Department hasn’t explained why.
The conflict has led to the largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, with more than 50,000 American troops stationed in the region. Nearly four months after the war started, the U.S. has fired thousands of munitions, dramatically depleting weapons stockpiles.
Defense Department officials told lawmakers that the war cost $11.3 billion over the first six days of fighting, and later estimated that approximately $25 billion was spent by the middle of May. But experts on defense spending say that number likely undercounts the real total by tens of billions of dollars, with independent assessments ranging from $50 billion to $100 billion.
Munitions were the single biggest expense in the department’s projections. But outside experts note that the Pentagon’s public estimates left out the cost of repairing damaged assets and resupplying stockpiles to prewar levels. Asked for a more detailed accounting, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers: “When it’s relevant and required, we will share it.”
That response has drawn bipartisan criticism on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have said the Pentagon is not being transparent about how the war is being funded.
A comprehensive analysis released Friday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security think tank, found that munitions alone likely cost $25 billion, with long-range precision munitions and anti-missile munitions, like Tomahawks and Patriots, carrying the highest price tags. Repairing and replacing damaged military assets — along with rebuilding damaged U.S.-affiliated bases and facilities throughout the Middle East — could cost anywhere from $11 billion to $14 billion, according to the CSIS analysis. Separately, the Congressional Research Service reported that at least 42 fixed-wing or unmanned U.S. aircraft have been damaged or destroyed since the U.S. launched its strikes on Feb. 28.
The toll has been just as steep on America’s weapons reserves. The United States has now burned through one-third to one-half of its most critical munitions stockpilesraising fears that the country has entered a “window of vulnerability” that could compromise its readiness for a future conflict elsewhere.
“The problem is for a conflict in the Western Pacific against China,” said Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at CSIS’ Defense and Security Department. “We were low on all of these munitions before the war, and of course now we’re even lower.”
The long-term price tag may be even harder to pin down, according to Linda Bilmes, a public finance expert at Harvard’s Kennedy School. She notes that the Pentagon’s estimates left out veterans’ healthcare and disability benefits entirely.
“The amount of disability benefits — just disability benefits — that we owe to veterans from the Iraq, Afghanistan, Gulf and Vietnam wars was $7.3 trillion. That doesn’t count healthcare,” Bilmes said. “So these things are really expensive. We expect that at least half of those who are serving now and who are continued to be deployed will qualify automatically for benefits.”
Bilmes also argues that no full accounting of the war’s cost can ignore its ripple effects on American consumers — particularly through rising oil prices, which could carry consequences for the broader global economy.
As of Thursday evening, Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs estimates in its Iran War Energy Cost tracker that the total consumer burden as a result of the war with Iran is more than $60 billion — about $458 per household — driven largely by the jump in fuel prices.
Bilmes argues that no full accounting of the war’s costs can ignore that hit to household budgets — or the larger risks the war poses to the economy. “It’s certainly possible that we see stagflation or other long-term economic consequences from what has happened in the past three months,” Bilmes said.
Priya Sridhar is the Pentagon correspondent for MS NOW.
As President Donald Trump and Iran move forward with a memorandum of understanding to end the war, many congressional Republicans are expressing unease about what the emerging deal means for the United States.
But several Republicans have also expressed concern with what the agreement means for another country: Israel.
Several Republicans told MS NOW they are particularly distraught with a provision calling for an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon” — language they fear could constrain Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah.
In recent weeks, Israel has continued strikes on southern Lebanontargeting Hezbollah there. Israel even struck Lebanon after the memorandum was announced.
When MS NOW asked Republicans on Thursday if the Iran deal was good for Israel, GOP lawmakers expressed a number of worries.
Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., took issue with the fact that Israel seemed to have been cut out of the negotiations, saying he’d like to find out what the Trump administration’s “thought process” was on that.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, similarly took issue with Israel getting cut out — going so far as to suggest that Israel should perhaps ignore the deal.
“They’ve got their own interests at stake, and you know, I would encourage them to continue to take the fight to Hezbollah,” he told MS NOW.
Like many other Republicans, Cornyn also took issue with the memorandum’s provision calling for up to $300 billion in reconstruction money for Iran.
“Unfortunately, now Iran is going to have hundreds of millions of dollars to support its terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah,” Cornyn said.
And Cornyn’s Texas colleague, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, was similarly concerned about forking money over to Iran.
“History demonstrates that sending billions of dollars to a theocratic lunatic who wants to murder us is a really bad idea,” he said.
Other Republicans were just as blunt with their criticism.
When MS NOW asked Rep. Don Bacon if the preliminary agreement was positive for Israel, the retiring Nebraska Republican was succinct: “No it is not.”
“Protecting … Hezbollah is not in Israel’s interests. The administration appeared desperate to get Iran to sign,” he said. “The MOU favors Iran significantly. They got their way with Trump.”
Bacon added that the U.S. had “significant military successes” against Iran.
“But Trump wanted an immediate deal too desperately and frittered away success,” he said.
Beyond the Lebanon provision, some of Israel’s top GOP allies are citing a tenet of the memorandum that says the U.S. “further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final Deal,” which experts say could allow Iran to say it drove the U.S. from the area.
Asked if he was concerned the deal may not be positive for Israel, Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, the former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, responded in a text message: “Super!”
He said the clause about the U.S. retreating from Iran was “the most astounding.”
“Wow,” he wrote. “I am sure that Iran interprets this clause as the removal of U.S. forces from bases and facilities in the [Gulf Cooperation Council] states. Has there been a greater strategic defeat? As they say ‘The Devil is in the details.’”
And while Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., expressed concerns about what the deal means for Israel, he also took issue with the potential political fallout for Republicans domestically.
“I want to protect Israel for its own sake,” Tillis said. “But there’s also a compelling political reason not to send the message that we’re no better than the Democrats, who have, by and large, let their left wing turn their backs on Israel.”
The concerns are surfacing as the administration finally sends members of Congress the MOU, giving lawmakers their first official chance to review the 14 points.
Israel itself has received the memorandum with a great deal of skepticism, with Axios reporting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes the deal is a mistake.
But the White House is carefully warning Israeli leaders to choose their words carefully.
On Thursday, when Vice President JD Vance was asked about some of the pushback on the deal from Israel, he warned that “Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this point in time.”
“If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world,” Vance said.
The spat is putting Republicans — who have long sided with Israel — in a potentially uncomfortable spot.
One of Israel’s most outspoken defenders in Congress, Republican Rep. Randy Fine of Florida, notably gave the White House some breathing room when asked whether this was a good deal for Israel.
“Israel isn’t a party to the MOU, and I believe they will act in their best interest,” he texted MS NOW. “My focus is on whether it is a good deal for the United States.”
“A final deal could be bad for Israel; it could be great for Israel. Same is true for America,” he said.
Rather than outwardly cross Trump and the White House, many Republicans seem intent on deferring to Israel’s leaders.
“Israel is going to make their own judgment on that,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.V. “I don’t have a comment on that.”
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. — who touts himself as a “vocal supporter” of Israel — said he wouldn’t want to “assess another country’s security interests.”
“So I just defer to them on that,” he said.
Other Republicans are preaching patience.
When MS NOW asked Sen. Lindsey Graham if this was a good deal for Israel, the South Carolina Republican pointed to the forthcoming 60 days of negotiations before a final agreement.
“It depends on how it all ends,” he said. “If it ends with a deal to contain Iran, it’d be a good deal for the region. If it ends where Saudi can go back to the peace table with Israel, it’d be a good deal. We just don’t know yet.”
“The MOU is not going to change history one way or the other,” Graham said.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., was similarly willing to let the process play out.
“I would like to see the Israelis give the agreement 60 days to try to work,” he said. “And if it doesn’t work, we can go back to bombing.”
Jack Fitzpatrick contributed to this report.
Kevin Frey is a congressional reporter for MS NOW.
Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.
A Republican congressional candidate Jackson Lahmeyer has dropped out of a runoff for a U.S. House in Oklahoma following reports that he had sent intimate text messages to a woman who was not his wife.
“After prayerful consideration with my wife, Kendra, and my team over the last twenty four hours, I’ve made the difficult decision to suspend my campaign for Congress,” Lahmeyer, a candidate for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, said in a statement Wednesday.
“I do not want to be a distraction to my family, my church, and the great people of Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, who deserve a strong conservative voice representing them in Washington,” he added.
President Donald Trump initially endorsed Lahmeyer, whom he called a “MAGA Warrior,” in May but withdrew his support following the controversy. Soon after, Trump endorsed Lahmeyer’s opponentMark Tedford, who now becomes the Republican nominee by default.
“I greatly appreciate Jackson Lahmeyer’s hard work under difficult circumstances — He has always been with me, and I will always be with him,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday. “But, when it comes to the current Congressional race for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, I will be supporting America First Patriot, Mark Tedford. Mark is Pro Trump and MAGA all the way!”
Lahmeyer, a pastor Sheridan Church in Tulsa, centered his congressional campaign around his Christian faith.
Lahmeyer dropped out of the race after the Daily Mail reported Sunday that he had exchanged numerous romantic text messages with Caitlin Simmons Key, who worked as a fundraiser for his campaign. In one text message obtained by the Daily Mail, Lahmeyer allegedly invited Key into his hotel room. Key also alleged that Lahmeyer once professed his love to her.
“There’s a real problem with the fact that he’s married and a pastor,” Key told the outlet. “There is a responsibility when you are leading people in the name of Christ to hold yourself to a higher standard.”
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.
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