Politics
Shapiro takes the inside track
POCONO RACEWAY, Pennsylvania — High up in the starting stand of a famed race track, Josh Shapiro waves a black-and-white checkered flag with an unmistakeable meaning: It’s over.
The metaphor isn’t entirely accurate.
“We may have a lead, but you’re coming down this home stretch. People are nipping at your heels,” the Pennsylvania governor told Blue Light News. “You’ve got to run hard.”
Shapiro, the potential 2028 contender and 2024 veepstakes short-lister, does have reasons to be optimistic — and careful.
He’s threatening a double-digit blowout over Stacy Garrity, a candidate backed by President Donald Trump, in the most important swing state in the nation.
He’s also putting his coattails to the test.
None of the other potential 2028 Democratic candidates has more at stake in their own backyard on Tuesday than Shapiro. He doesn’t have California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s map-breaking Proposition 50, designed to beat back the GOP redistricting, nor his platinum email list. He doesn’t have Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s billions or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly’s deep bench of donors or former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s large map or the red-state credentials of Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
Shapiro is on the brink of flipping four hotly contested congressional seats — and guaranteeing Democrats the House. Pennsylvania Democrats could also take control of the state Senate, including some heavily gerrymandered seats, giving the party a governing trifecta for the first time since 1992.
“I’m not thinking about this as a victory for me,” he told Blue Light News during a swing through the state. “I’m thinking about this as a victory for our country.”
All of which paves the way for him to pass a $15 minimum wage and a raft of other measures that could buttress a 2028 presidential bid.
Shapiro is very much following the Ron DeSantis theory of a presidential primary campaign: demonstrate dominance at home before branching out nationally — a strategy, it should be noted, that didn’t pay off for the Florida governor.
“I think what really hurt DeSantis was that he decided he wasn’t going to announce until after his legislative session, and that was May,” political strategist David Axelrod said. “Time is at a premium. If that’s his plan, that would be a miscalculation.”
Will we see him venture beyond Pennsylvania’s boundaries before the end of the year?
“I don’t know what my plans are,” Shapiro said.
The day had the feeling of both an ending of one campaign and the beginning of another. Even as he urged a midday audience of about 100 people to vote for Paige Cognetti, the Scranton mayor running against Rep. Rob Bresnahan, and Brian Wrightson, the state Senate candidate challenging Sen. Rosemary Brown, he is nationalizing his rhetoric.
“Don’t let Trump take away your hopefulness,” he told people gathered at East Stroudsburg University. “Don’t let him make you feel pessimistic. Don’t let him feel like change can’t come or that we have to look in the rearview mirror for answers. The answers are always straight ahead.”
Then there’s his set piece about the “American dream slipping away.”
He’s broadening out his message beyond the commonwealth.
“I think the work I do here in Pennsylvania, the confidence I give them about their government here can hopefully restore some of their faith in democracy, and I want in our democracy, and I want them to feel like they’ve got power to be able to shape the future of that American dream,” Shapiro told us.
A few hours later, Shapiro materializes inside Salerno’s, a tavern in Old Forge known for its American cheese-topped pizza. He sets a room in which patrons already have had a few too many Rolling Rocks and pumpkin martinis.
On the televisions, his own ad for Wrightson is playing on TV. He grips and grins and backslaps his way through the room.
At the end of the bar, he picks up five pizzas for the road, ducks out the door and boards his bus for another Cognetti rally.
Shapiro’s gubernatorial reelect isn’t drawing the buzz of some of the more razor’s-edge, online Senate races in the waning days of election season. But his project is no less remarkable.
“If we can win enough seats here in Pennsylvania to change the balance of power in Washington and be a check on Donald Trump, then we can both hold the president accountable and get stuff done in Washington,” Shapiro says. “Likewise, here in Pennsylvania, if we can win a trifecta for the first time since Bill Clinton’s election, I can raise wages almost immediately for tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians who are at or below minimum wage and raise wages for others. That’s a concrete thing that we can accomplish.”
At the raceway, he has just finished cutting a video racing around the Pocono Raceway’s Tricky Triangle when he flashes a grin.
“I’ve got a surprise for you,” he says, inviting Blue Light News to the starting stand above the storied three-turn NASCAR track in the Pocono foothills.
Up the stairs, the burnt-orange fall foliage dances on the Pennsylvania horizon. It’s a vantage point Shapiro, as a NASCAR fan, has taken in many times.
Despite the apt setting, he deflects when asked if he’s ready to announce the launch of his campaign.
“If this is a metaphor,” he says, “it’s for finishing the race strong.”
There is just one wrinkle: Before he brandished the black-and-white flag, he picked up a green one, waving it vigorously.
“I think you mis-saw that,” Shapiro said with a smile. “I was waving a checkered flag to finish the governor’s race.”
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Why the midterms are a warning sign for both parties
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Turning Point USA has gone all-in to make GOP Rep. Andy Biggs the next governor of Arizona, their top priority of the cycle.
It appears they will come up short.
Biggs was the last candidate Turning Point founder Charlie Kirk personally endorsed before he was killed one year ago. Kirk himself recruited the longtime ally in their home state to run for governor this cycle — and Turning Point has since spent $18 million, the most they’ve dropped for anyone this cycle, to try to salvage his campaign.
“It’s a legacy thing for them,” said former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.). “This is their swan song. This is kind of all-or-nothing for them.”
But Biggs, a former chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and close ally of President Donald Trump who previously served as Arizona Senate president, has trailed Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in virtually every public poll of the race this year, most of them outside the margin of error. And some Arizona Republicans have been baffled by Turning Point’s strategy.
The group faces immense criticism from within the state GOP for delaying its biggest spending until September, just weeks before ballots were sent out, according to conversations with 10 local operatives and officials.
Biggs’ race is the most high-stakes political test for Turning Point Action since Kirk’s 2025 death, and the result will have major implications for the group’s reputation and relevancy within the GOP moving forward. Turning Point has already preemptively endorsed Vice President JD Vance, who was particularly close to Kirk, for president. Should Vance decide to run, he could rely on Turning Point’s ground operation in swing states like Arizona and beyond.
The group could well overperform this year, and if they are successful in lifting Biggs in their home state, it could send a signal. But a loss could have 2028 repercussions, too.
“If JD Vance intends to run for president, I think it would be a good idea to reevaluate any thoughts he might have about utilizing Turning Point Action as his field operation,” said Gina Swoboda, a former chair of the Arizona Republican Party who has openly sparred with the organization.
A spokesperson for Vance did not respond to a request for comment.
Other Republicans, including the Biggs’ campaign, said they’re grateful that Turning Point didn’t wave the white flag in a tough year for the GOP, as voters reel from the impact of Trump’s policies.
“Turning Point Action’s investments both on the ground and over the airwaves in Arizona have been tremendous. We are very grateful they’ve stepped up to support Andy and Republicans up and down the ballot in an extremely difficult environment,” Biggs campaign spokesperson Drew Sexton said in a statement.
In a statement, Tyler Bowyer, chief operating officer of Turning Point Action, said he is “very proud of the strides we have made in Arizona and other swing states.” He emphasized TP Action is “a Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) centric organization” and not TV-focused, pointing the blame elsewhere.
“It is the job of national apparatus groups to go on air early and support Republican nominees,” he said. “We of course are disappointed that more national Republican dollars are not matching the national Democrat dollars being spent on Presidential swing states like Arizona.”
While the RGA has stayed out of the race, the Democratic Governors Association has spent at least $10 million.
Hobbs, who was elected to the purple state’s governorship in 2022, launched her first general election TV ad in May, while Biggs was still focused on his late July primary. At the time, Turning Point mocked Hobbs for “spending like a drunken sailor” by launching spending so early.
But now, Republicans say that Hobbs was able to entrench her lead in the race by spending early while Biggs was dark on the airwaves — and blame Turning Point along with other GOP outside groups like the Republican Governors Association for not spending earlier to keep the race competitive. The RGA declined to comment on their decision not to spend in the race.
In a state like Arizona, where an incumbent governor hasn’t lost reelection since 1966 and some 80% of voters cast ballots before Election Day, a late deluge of cash is less likely to sway the race.
“If you’re spending that much money, a big portion of that would’ve been really helpful earlier in the race when Andy was completely broke, he didn’t have two nickels to rub together, and Hobbs was dominating the airwaves with no response and beating the crap out of Andy,” said Salmon.”A lot of us are scratching our heads.”
Biggs’ campaign reported just $1.26 million cash on hand in July, while Hobbs’ campaign reported double that. Many donors to former GOP Gov. Doug Ducey have stayed on the sidelines this year.
One Republican operative working on other Arizona races, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that at this point, “No amount of spending is going to change the fact that Biggs is going to lose.”
“In all likelihood, the top statewide seats are going Democrat. And Turning Point owns it,” the strategist added. “They wanted to be the player. They wanted to be the guy. Guess what? They are.”
Many local Republicans are frustrated that the RGA never spent a penny on the top race in a state Trump won in 2024. While Biggs was getting hammered early on the airwaves, the RGA was spending nearly $4 million on the Wisconsin Democratic primary to boost a democratic socialist who narrowly lost.
For several cycles, Turning Point has muscled statewide candidates through messy Republican primaries, only to see them falter in November. In 2022, it pushed hardliners Blake Masters and Kari Lake as nominees for U.S. Senate and governor, only to see both lose. In 2024, they backed Lake’s bid for Senate; even as Trump won Arizona by five points, Lake lost by two.
Biggs, some Republicans thought, would be different. He had high name ID statewide and a track record of public service for Arizona, both in the state Senate and the U.S. House. Kirk himself personally urged Biggs to enter the governor’s race, Biggs told the Arizona Republic, even though Trump had already endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson, a Phoenix attorney and businesswoman, early in the race.
After Biggs entered the race in January 2025, Trump split his endorsement between Robson and Biggs — and Turning Point took a victory lap.
“Turning Point Action will marshall our organization’s full resources, ground game, and support behind the Biggs for Arizona campaign, and we’re honored to be able to do so,” Charlie Kirk said in a May 2025 statement. “He has my full and complete endorsement.”
Robson later dropped out, and Turning Point helped Biggs romp to a massive victory in the primary. Next Tuesday will test if their general-election acumen has improved.
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