Politics
Democrats’ mail-voting plans shift as officials work to reassure voters
The Supreme Court blocked President Donald Trump’s effort to restrict mail voting. But for Democrats trying to turn out voters, the uncertainty seems harder to put to rest.
Fewer Democrats say they plan to vote by mail in November’s midterms than at the same point in 2024, according to a new NBC News poll, as a separate survey finds declining confidence that the Postal Service will deliver election mail on time. That represents an about-face for a party that has increasingly embraced mail voting since the 2020 pandemic election, forcing Democratic strategists to rethink how they get voters to the polls — and how to convince them their ballots will count.
Quentin James, founder and president of the Collective PAC, said his group is hearing concerns from Black voters about whether their mailed ballots will be secure and counted.
“I think there’s confusion,” James said. “We know that the president has spent six months talking about changing the rules regarding mail-in voting, and a lot of folks are concerned about their ballot being secure.”
That confusion comes as Democrats and voting groups weigh how to reassure voters after Trump’s latest effort to restrict mail voting. The president signed an executive order in March seeking to crack down on mail-in voting, citing unproven claims that the process is insecure and vulnerable to electoral fraud.
“The cheating on mail-in voting is legendary. It’s horrible what’s gone on,” Trump said during an Oval Office signing ceremony. “I think this will help a lot with elections.”
Still, the rules for mail ballots — at least nationally — will be effectively the same as 2024 after the Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s attempt to enforce the new mail-in ballot delivery regulations in a ruling earlier this month. The high court left in place a lower-court decision that blocked the U.S. Postal Service from implementing the new proposed requirements in the weeks before the midterm election.
Despite that, Democratic voters have signaled they are changing how they’ll vote.
In the NBC poll, 23% of registered Democrats said they plan to vote by mail, down from 34% in September 2024. Thirty-six percent said they plan to vote early in person, up from 30%, while another 36% expect to vote on Election Day.
A Marist poll found that 58% of registered voters were confident the Postal Service would deliver election-related mail to voters and election officials on time, down from 71% in October 2024. Marist also found that Democrats remain more likely than Republicans to plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, 32% to 12%, respectively.
James said his organization has long encouraged early in-person voting through its Rides to Vote program, which provides transportation to voters without a vehicle. But despite the Supreme Court ruling, his organization is also encouraging people considering voting by mail to use a ride voucher to return their completed ballots directly to the required location.
“The bigger threat is confusion and fear,” he said. “That is the thing that a court case will not solve, and that’s what we’re really concerned about.”
In Maine, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said municipal clerks have reported voters canceling absentee ballot requests, including requests to receive ballots automatically in future elections.
Bellows cautioned against a blanket message to vote in person. “We would discourage advocates from telling people not to vote by mail if, for those voters, that’s their only option,” said Bellows, a Democrat who ran this cycle for governor and in the rapid-fire Senate primary, pointing to older and disabled Mainers who rely on absentee voting.
Her office is instead urging voters to make a plan that works for them, return mailed ballots early and use Maine’s online absentee ballot tracking system to check whether a clerk has received and accepted them.
“Our public education efforts have been focused on encouraging voters to make a plan that’s right for them, and recognizing that they have the peace of mind of tracking their absentee ballot and the backup option of voting on Election Day if, for any reason, the ballot is delayed by the mail,” Bellows said.
Indivisible, one of the party’s largest grassroots groups, is mounting its own early-vote push and nudging people to cast their ballots early, regardless of how they vote. Co-founder Leah Greenberg said that the group is helping organize an Oct. 17 national day of action to encourage people to vote early under their states’ rules.
“So we were absolutely hearing concern,” Greenberg said. “But more importantly, what we’re hearing is people trying to figure out what they can do and how they can organize locally in order to protect elections.”
Greenberg said Indivisible is urging voters to get their ballots in early and emphasizing that a court rejected the administration’s attempt to restrict mail voting.
Still, the ruling hasn’t erased the uncertainty organizers say they are hearing from voters. Greenberg and James described a similar mix of relief and concern among voters.
“People are glad to hear it, but still wary,” Greenberg said.
Democrats, including state election officials who oversee the process, are also looking for ways to boost confidence in the mail system. Nevada Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar has asked his state’s congressional delegation to arrange election observers at postal facilities handling Nevada’s ballots.
In letters to the state’s congressional delegation, Aguilar identified sites in Las Vegas and Reno, as well as facilities in West Sacramento, California, and Salt Lake City, Utah.
Aguilar said nearly 670,000 Nevadans voted by mail in 2024 and argued that having observers present could strengthen confidence in ballot handling. In an interview, he said observers would also signal to postal workers that they have support in the process.
“By having observers there, it gives them the support to say: ‘Hey, we got your back,’” Aguilar said. “We also want to be helpful if there are any concerns — we want to make sure that leadership knows we are not going to stay quiet. We’re going to be proactive. We’re going to be engaged and we’re going to hold them accountable when we need to hold them accountable.”
Aguilar said Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) has requested observers following his letters. Lee’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
USPS said it had received correspondence regarding Aguilar’s request and was reviewing it. “The Postal Service has successfully delivered America’s election mail, and we are confident that we will do so again this year,” Nikolaj Hagen, a Postal Service spokesperson, said.
Hagen pointed to USPS figures showing it delivered 233.3 million pieces of election mail through Aug. 28 in fiscal year 2026, with 97.94% arriving on time. In the 2022 election, USPS handled 105.4 million ballots and delivered 99.93% of those sent by voters to election officials within seven days. In 2024, it handled 222.39 million pieces of ballot mail, with 99.88% delivered to officials within seven days.
Meanwhile, Bellows said Maine is taking a different approach. Local USPS representatives have proposed weekly meetings with her election staff, she said, and her office has relationships with workers at the state’s two distribution centers.
But she noted congressional observers could be useful in larger states where those relationships are less established.
“Maine is a small enough place where, if there were a problem, we would probably know very quickly through union representatives or simply word of mouth,” Bellows said, noting that congressional observers at postal locations could be particularly useful in places “where those relationships may not be as strong or well established.”
Adam Hamilton on faith, Trump and the fight for Kansas
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WORKING OUT THE KINKS: New York’s Department of Health began transitioning more than 147,000 Medicaid and Medicare Savings Program enrollees to an upgraded case management system about a year ago.
Since then, state officials say only a third of them have been able to automatically renew their coverage without assistance.
The shift is part of a $1.1 billion contract aimed at creating an automated system for Medicaid enrollees to receive real-time determinations on their eligibility for the two programs. While the new system is intended to create a seamless enrollment process, for many consumers it’s been riddled with challenges.
The initiative is part of a broader effort to move the Medicaid program away from local social services departments that still rely on paper applications and an outdated system in desperate need of overhaul. The state wants to transition the program to one centralized system run through its public health insurance marketplace, New York State of Health, according to officials.
Lindsay Heckler, managing attorney for policy at the nonprofit Center for Elder Law & Justice, said her firm has seen a surge in inappropriate denials.
“I’m not saying the new system shouldn’t be in place,” Heckler said. “But the concern is that the training and processes that are in place are preventing people from becoming eligible. My concern is that in the coming year they are moving more people into a system that doesn’t have the kinks worked out for the people that are in the system right now.”
The state began rolling out the new Medicaid Eligibility and Client Management system in September 2025. A second wave of more complex cases is expected to migrate to the new system between November 2027 and February 2028. And while state officials say the system — which was created by Deloitte Consulting through a $1.1 billion contract — was thoroughly tested by both the Health Department and the company, they concede that problems remain and are being addressed as they’re flagged.
Advocates describe the situation in starker terms. They say errors have put health care coverage in jeopardy for people who are 65 years and older, blind or disabled. They also told Blue Light News they’ve discovered inaccurate information being transferred, a flawed automated asset verification tool and state workers’ inability to manually override inappropriate denials.
Deloitte did not respond to a request for comment.
New York entered into a $177 million contract with Deloitte in August 2023. But that projected outlay has grown to $1.18 billion after the state quietly filed four amendments to the initial deal, which ended on March 31, 2025. The latest amendment included an $866 million extension along with a work plan modification, according to details of the contract listed in the Open Book New York database.
The Health Department said the contract extension will complete the migration of Medicaid enrollees to the new system, which includes more complex cases in the next wave, such as long-term care and nursing home patients. The contract also includes additional funding for Deloitte to conduct testing and ensure compliance with new federal requirements.
“This multi-year transition to a centrally administered model will replace the outdated, expensive, error-prone and inefficient paper-based system with a streamlined, user-friendly platform that better supports the health coverage needs of New Yorkers while reducing the potential for waste, fraud, and abuse,” Health Department spokesperson Cadence Acquaviva said in a statement. “At every step of the way, this transition and contract were subject to extensive federal review and approval by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.”
Read more in Blue Light News Pro from Katelyn Cordero.
MARK YOUR CALENDAR: Join Blue Light News’s New York Outlook: Affordability, Industry & The Economy on Oct. 14 for live conversations about the business and policy decisions being made today — from City Hall to the State Capitol — that will shape the city’s economic future. The lineup includes New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin, New York City Economic Development Corp. CEO Anthony Shorris, Partnership for NYC CEO Steven Fulop, Citizens Budget Commission President Andrew Rein, Charles H. Revson Foundation President Maria Torres-Springer, and more. Register now to attend in person or watch the livestream.
From the Capitol
JACOBS WINS: State Democratic Committee Chair Jay Jacobs handily won a new two-year term on the job, receiving 82 percent of the weighted vote at a party gathering in Westchester today.
Jacobs — who angered the left last year by declining to endorse then-Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani in the general election — faced a challenge from Otsego County chair Caitlin Ogden. He preached unity as his victory message, inviting Ogden to join his leadership team in a “substantive” role.
“This party has got to come to an understanding that our first priority is electing Democrats in whatever districts they’re in, and speak the language of the people in those districts,” Jacobs said. “All sides of our party need to learn to listen, to understand, to respect each other. There should be no vitriol inside the Democratic Party tent.”
Party members have traditionally supported the governor’s choice for chair. Gov. Kathy Hochul never publicly wavered in her support for Jacobs, making clear in recent weeks he was still her pick.
“I want to thank him for accepting the weight, the responsibilities,” she told party officials today. “Not the easiest job in the state. But he has done it in a way that has brought us together.”
Jacobs, who also heads the Nassau County Democratic Committee, has chaired the state party under the past three governors, serving from 2009-2012 and since 2019. If he completes his new two-year stint, he’d be just one term away from surpassing FDR kingmaker James Farley as the longest-tenured chair in the history of the New York Democrats. — Bill Mahoney
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
POLL POSITION: Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democratic challenger Cait Conley are locked in a tight race, per a new Emerson College/PIX11 poll.
Conley earned 48% of support to Lawler’s 46%, with 7% of respondents undecided.
Lawler has more crossover support than Conley does, and independents break for him. But the pollsters note the percentage of Democratic backing for him fell from an Emerson survey in October 2024, while Conley’s GOP support increased compared to Lawler’s 2024 opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones.
Hochul’s favorability is underwater in the district — 40% of respondents approve and 49% disapprove — though the pollsters acknowledge she’s on better footing than she was in 2024. President Donald Trump is also unpopular, with 43% approving his performance and 53% disapproving. The poll did not ask about Mamdani, a favorite foil of Lawler’s on the trail.
The survey was conducted among 400 likely voters from Sept. 27-29. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points. — Madison Fernandez
TRUMP TO CNY: Trump is considering a trip to upstate New York on Oct. 9 to appear alongside Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.
The event is being considered for central New York, but has not been finalized, said a fourth person. The people were granted anonymity to disclose the private conversations about the potential trip.
Blakeman’s campaign did not comment and the White House did not immediately return messages seeking comment.
Trump previously appeared on Long Island this summer to rally with Blakeman and Republican House candidates.
Read more from Blue Light News’s Nick Reisman.
FROM CITY HALL
BILLIONAIRE’S ZO: Mamdani hosted fifteen business leaders — several of them billionaires — at Gracie Mansion yesterday for the inaugural meeting of his Business Advisory Council.
The council brings together business executives across industries to help guide the city’s economic policy and shepherd growth and innovation. Despite decrying the ultra wealthy, Mamdani welcomed input from billionaires such as Chobani founder and CEO Hamdi Ulukaya and Jefferson River Capital Chairman Tony James on how to address the affordability crisis, which has inhibited their ability to recruit top talent.
The council also discussed potential plans to convert unused office space across the city into arts and research hubs, according to a spokesperson for the mayor.
While he was welcoming other business execs to his home, one of the mayor’s biggest billionaire foes, Ken Griffin, was announcing his $3 billion donation to Carnegie Mellon University, the largest single donation in the history of American higher education.
Most of that money is earmarked to build the university a new campus in Miami — months after Griffin said the mayor’s rhetoric prompted him to “double down” on investments in Florida, rather than New York.
The Mamdani-Griffin beef swelled this spring when the mayor posed in front of Griffin’s $238 million penthouse in a social media video promoting his pied-à-terre tax. In the post, Mamdani framed the billionaire as a prime target of his tax-the-rich agenda.
Griffin responded by calling the video “creepy and weird,” saying his plans to further invest outside of New York were “an immediate and direct consequence of the mayor’s poor decision.”
“We will welcome anyone’s support, anyone’s involvement, and we will always do so because this is a city that belongs to all who live here,” Mamdani said when asked about Griffin’s historic donation. — Molly Reinmann
IN OTHER NEWS
— RETREAT: NYC first lady Rama Duwaji reportedly sojourned at an Islamic wellness retreat with a history of calling for the destruction of Israel, as her husband was rolling out his blueprint to combat antisemitism. (Washington Free Beacon)
— CHATBOT GOVERNANCE: The Mamdani administration is planning to unroll new AI safeguards, including cracking down on chatbots used in customer service and launching a formal study of AI assistants. (POLITICO Pro)
— SPEEDING THINGS UP: Mamdani’s administration unveiled 12 districts where housing will be fast-tracked. (POLITICO Pro)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
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