Politics

Republicans are still really worried about beating Jon Ossoff

Published

4 months ago

June 17, 2026

Georgia Republicans finally have their Senate nominee. Now comes the hard part.

A bruised GOP Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) will go head to head against Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, a prolific fundraiser who many Republicans worry will be difficult to beat this November.

While Republicans spent months turning their fire on each other, Ossoff has steadily built his campaign infrastructure — and refined his general election message.

“Anyone who’s being honest knows it’s going to be a very tough race to unseat Jon Ossoff. All the polling shows Georgia as leaning Democrat, not toss-up,” Jason Shepherd, the former Cobb County Republican chair, told Blue Light News before the Tuesday result. He had supported Collins’ opponent, former football coach Derek Dooley.

Heading into the midterms, Ossoff was widely considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic candidates in a state Trump handily won in 2024. But since then, the senator has stockpiled mountains of cash, sailed through his primary unchallenged, and has positioned himself as someone who stays above the fray of partisan cable news hits.

“Ossoff is tricky, he’s good at raising money, he does not step in it,” said one senior RNC official before the runoff, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape.

The race is expected to be one of the most closely watched Senate contests of the cycle. Holding onto Ossoff’s seat is key to Democrats’ narrow path to winning back control of the Senate, while Republicans see flipping it as one of their best opportunities to expand their majority. The state has also become one of the country’s premier battlegrounds, serving as an early test of the forces — and people — that could shape 2028.

Several Republican strategists and operatives say that some of Collins’ hardline policy stances, plus an ongoing House ethics investigation against him, may make him vulnerable to Democrats’ attacks.

They also worry Collins has a lot of catching up to do in the money race.

Collins raised$4.9 million and had just $1.2 million in cash on hand as of May 27, according to fundraising reports. By comparison, Ossoff has raised$60 million and had $32 million left in the bank at the end of April.

“It’s a real severe uphill battle,” said one Republican operative involved in races up and down the ballot in Georgia, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the state’s marquee race.

Collins will require significant help from outside groups, the operative said, but it’s not clear how much will come: “What is the willingness to go all in for Mike Collins? Do they think he can win? Do they think they can get this done? What are those resources going to look like? Because he’s not going to fundraise — I don’t think — very well.”

Collins’ allies argue the bitter primary has prepared him for a brutal general election.

“Jon Ossoff has been, always will be, the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection. Nobody is more battle tested than Mike Collins after this primary,” said a person close to Collins’ campaign.

Some Democrats suggest they got their preferred candidate in Collins — rather than Dooley, who had the backing of popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, which could have helped broaden his appeal across the state.

“Dooley is much less of a political extremist than Collins is and Collins is on the record voting directly for the policies that have devastated Georgians,” said one person aligned with a Democratic PAC involved in Senate elections, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “As for an [opposition] research perspective and in our effort to air out his dirty laundry we have a lot more ammunition with Collins.”

Even President Donald Trump, who made a last-minute endorsement for Collins ahead of Tuesday’s election, had grilled him about his strict stance on abortion, pressing him on how he could win in a general election in one of the nation’s premier swing states. Abortion has become a political vulnerability for Republicans in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Collins already appeared to soften his stance in the final stretch of the runoff. During a 2022 debate for his current House seat, Collins said, “I have always stated and I’ve always been and always will be 100 percent pro-life, period. No exceptions.” Recently on the campaign trail, he said he supports Georgia’s six-week abortion ban, which includes exceptions in cases of rape, incest or to protect the life of the mother.

Ossoff was quick to hammer Collins after his victory, tying him to Trump and assailing him as a “notorious bigot.”

“Collins, who is only a congressman because his daddy was a congressman, voted to double health insurance premiums for more than a million Georgians, for the Iran War, and for the Trump tariffs,” Ossoff said in a statement.

But Democrats know Collins still poses a real threat, even with the wind at their backs. Ossoff won by a razor-thin margin in 2020 over former Republican Sen. David Perdue — a contest that went to a runoff — and Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) won by less than 3 points over Trump-endorsed former football star Herschel Walker in 2022.

“Democrats understand that if a Herschel Walker can get to 49 percent, you know, this is still going to be a battle, and this is still going to be a fight ahead,” said Andrew Heaton, a Democratic strategist and former campaign aide for Warnock.

National Democrats say they are planning to hit Collins hard. Senate Majority PAC, the main Senate Democratic super PAC, has committed $20 million to supporting the incumbent in the general.

National Republican groups have largely been waiting in the wings to get involved in Georgia, held back by Trump’s long silence on the Senate race and a messy, drawn-out primary to determine their nominee. Now, with Collins knighted as their standard bearer to lead the ticket, groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund will face pressure to start spending — fast.

Those two leading Republican groups have already raised $1 million in a “first-of-its-kind joint fundraising operation” put aside for the Republican nominee in Georgia, POLITICO first reported. That’s in addition to the$44 million SLF already committed to Georgia’s Senate race. Collins could also receive a boost from sharing a ticket with billionaire Rick Jackson, who won the GOP gubernatorial primary Tuesday — and has already signaled plans to invest heavily across the state.

“We will have a large field team and field operation. Collins will benefit greatly,” one person familiar with Jackson’s campaign said Tuesday night, granted anonymity to discuss not-yet-finalized plans.

A second Georgia-based Republican operative said “it’s imperative” that resources start flowing to the Senate race. “The general election campaign starts right now, we don’t have a moment to lose,” the operative said just minutes after the primary was called for Collins.

Collins used his victory speech on Tuesday night to preview his attacks on Ossoff’s voting record, tying the Democrat to liberal policies unpopular with many Georgia Republicans.

“This choice in this race is crystal clear: You got a businessman who has delivered results in both the private sector and in Washington … or an out-of-touch, far left liberal who has raised your taxes, made your life more expensive, less safe, and left Georgia worse off,” he said.

How Collins handles the early days of the general election will be key to convincing the skeptics, said one Georgia-based operative unaffiliated with the Senate race, granted anonymity to discuss the landscape.

“A lot of people don’t think he’s gonna have a chance, and that may end up working to his advantage,” the operative said. “I think the race is gonna get very tight once we get into the summer and early fall, but I think that there’s going to be a lot of eyeballs to see how he performs out of the gate.”

Buoyed by the late-stage Trump endorsement, Collins emerged from the primary as the candidate carrying the MAGA mantle. He earned support from several prominent House Republicans, in addition to the powerful Club for Growth and Turning Point Action. His victory on Tuesday night underscored his strength in Georgia’s rural, heavily Republican regions.

But to compete in November, he’ll need to go beyond the MAGA base and win over Dooley’s coalition, which was built on the support of more moderate voters in the metro Atlanta area. Collins said in his victory speech Tuesday that he had spoken to both Kemp and Dooley.

“It’s an uphill battle against Senator Ossoff, but it would have been an uphill fight for anyone,” said Buzz Brockway, a GOP strategist and former state representative in Georgia. “Now Collins needs to unite the GOP behind him, which I think he can do.”

Politics

‘A warning sign for polling’: Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short

Published

16 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Democrats are salivating over, and Republicans are bracing for, a potentially massive blue wave. One GOP pollster is urging everyone to calm down.

Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at Echelon Insights, has been loudly throwing cold water on Democrats’ hopes of sweeping the red state Senate seats that have become battlegrounds in a worsening national environment for Republicans.

“The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground,” Ruffini told Blue Light News.

Democrats are pushing to flip Senate seats in Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska — all states that President Donald Trump won by at least 11 points in 2024 — with dreams of going even deeper into the map Kansas, South Carolina and even Mississippi. Sensing a potential disaster, Republicans have significantly curtailed their investments in North Carolina and Georgia to direct resources elsewhere.

Ruffini, who isn’t polling for candidates or party committees in any federal races, said he’s skeptical of Democrats flipping some of those seats, particularly in the Midwest, and gives the GOP a coin flip’s chance at keeping control of the Senate.

If a blue wave were to come, he said it would defy the ingrained partisanship in deep-red states that has mirrored growing political polarization around the country.

“I think it would be somewhat of a historic shift if that were to happen,” he said.

Here’s more from Blue Light News’s chat with Ruffini, edited for length and clarity. A more condensed version of this interview ran in Blue Light News’s Morning Score campaign newsletter.

You’ve been pretty publicly skeptical of polling that indicates a big tsunami for Democrats in November. Why is that?

I think we can read the environment right, but the map wrong.

The pretty large shift towards Democrats that we’re seeing on the generic ballot and in a lot of individual races, I’m not saying that’s not going to materialize. What I am more skeptical of is… the ability of any major party in this polarized era that we’re in to rack up significant gains in states that went double digits for the other side.

I’m not ruling out — I think there will be some [examples]. I think Alaska is one where it’s both an idiosyncratic state, and [Democratic nominee Mary] Peltola has shown some specific candidate-centered strength. Nor would it shock me if [Democrat] James Talarico wins, despite the history in Texas. That would not surprise me, just given the candidate quality disparity, particularly on the Ken Paxton side.

Where I get more skeptical is when you move into the Midwest, where there has historically been pretty large polling errors [overstating Democrats’ chances] in states like Iowa, Ohio. And I think you can extend that to the Democratic enthusiasm around Kansas.

Is your skepticism coming more from the quality of the individual polls that you’re seeing that are showing massive Democratic surges in the Midwest, or is it the history of these states that you’re betting will ultimately win out?

I think fundamentals are going to play an important role, particularly in states where there was a solid Trump advantage. We’re not talking about a state like North Carolina or Georgia that’s only for Trump narrowly, where Democrats, at least in the Senate races, are clearly favored.

Historically the presumption is that states tend to converge on their base partisanship in the closing days of an election, but especially that’s been the pattern in the Midwest.

Specifically as it relates to the polls this year, I think any pollster you would talk to, including myself, is experiencing significant non-response bias favoring Democrats.

When you’re seeing high-propensity Democrats [responding to polls] at twice the rate of high-propensity Republicans, when we know that the turnout on both sides would be roughly evenly paired, that’s a warning sign for polling in this cycle.

It seems like there’s some GOP internal polling saying that Republicans are worried about these states, because they are moving money around to triage certain races. I’m curious if you feel like they’re wrong to be making those decisions?

Absolutely not. They’re not wrong. You do have to take the polls somewhat seriously in the sense of, if you do get a poll that’s within the margin of error, I think you’re duty-bound to spend money in those places and not to ignore what could be a potential signal.

I think that control of the Senate comes down to Texas, so they’re right to be spending money there. If you just look at the amount of money being spent in Texas versus Kansas, obviously it’s a much, much bigger state, and you need to spend much more money.

But it’s not something along the lines of ‘the battleground has shifted. It’s a foregone conclusion. Democrats are going to win the Senate,’ and then the battleground entirely shifts to a state like Kansas or to Iowa, right? I don’t think we’re seeing that.

It sounds like the issue you have is how the broader public is interpreting these polls rather than the polls themselves?

The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground. And to some extent it’s happening both ways. The polls showing a margin-of- error race in Minnesota is possible, right? I’m not as concerned about a polling error in Minnesota as I am in Kansas.

But because of the number of Democratic internals and because of the incentive of Democratic internals to show close races across the battleground, what you generally tend to see is more of an inflated sense of how big the battleground actually is. A lot of these races just break a certain way.

We’ve reported that Republicans are privately conceding that the House is lost. Is that your reading of the data too?

That’s the best reading of the data. That said, if there’s a three-point polling error or something, then I think it gets very, very tight and anything can happen. But I think that’s the most likely outcome.

What is your prediction for the number of Senate seats Republicans will have?

My prediction for both the probability and the seat count is 50-50. There’s a 50-50 chance Republicans hold the Senate. I think if they do, it’s with 50 seats, probably. But obviously, that can tilt very easily.

Which of these states do you think are going to flip for Democrats?

Alaska is clearly favored. I mean, I don’t know if it’s clearly favored, but I think it’s at least still Democrat. I think Texas is going to be very, very close. I just think the partisanship of the state is — people forget it’s a little bit more Republican than it was back in 2018. I think Republicans are probably being underestimated in Ohio because of the past Midwestern polling error.

At the same time, I would say it’s still uphill in Maine and Michigan to some degree. I think Susan Collins has really been the lone bright spot, at least in terms of the conventional wisdom, the narrative in the Senate for Republicans. I think she has a fighting chance, but I think Republicans are still probably under a 50% chance in both Michigan and Maine, just due to the nature of their partisan lean.

If at the end of all of this it is a real blue wave in the Senate, what will have happened to have made you wrong?

If that happens, we will have seen a level of depolarization in the electorate that we haven’t seen since around 2012. You really have to go back in history for a state like Kansas to flip.That would be pretty unique historically, where it’s a flip where you have an incumbent losing.

That’s the kind of thing that used to happen in Senate races a lot, and then things, starting with Trump, got a lot more polarized. So what that would mean is, maybe this is the start of a new political era. But I think it would be somewhat of a historic shift if that were to happen.

Politics

Ohio returns as a bellwether

Published

19 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Ohio returns as a bellwether

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Politics

Inside the quiet money pullback — for both parties — in Georgia’s Senate race

Published

20 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The money spigot is sputtering in Georgia’s Senate race amid growing expectations that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff will win reelection.

The Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans’ top Senate super PAC, did not spend on broadcast television in the state last week — the first week they were off air in the race, according to tracking firm AdImpact. Neither did Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC.

Senate Majority PAC will also be dark again this week, the Chuck Schumer-aligned group shared first with Blue Light News. It was not immediately clear whether SLF would follow suit. The group declined to comment on their future spending plans in the state.

The spending slowdown underscores how dramatically Georgia’s place on the Senate map has shifted, as Ossoff maintains wide margins over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in public polling and fundraising. Georgia was expected to be one of the cycle’s most expensive and preeminent battlegrounds — now some of the biggest outside spenders are pulling back and turning their attention to more competitive races in redder territory.

The two major Senate super PACs have closely mirrored each other’s spending decisions in recent weeks, with neither fully retreating from the state. They still both technically have future ad reservations booked past this week, but those are not binding, leaving both sides with the flexibility to redirect money as they assess the Senate map. And with two weeks until Election Day and early voting already underway in Georgia, it’s unclear whether either will spend any more in the state.

“National Republicans are abandoning Mike Collins as he continues to show Georgians why he’s unelectable and unfit for office. We are committed to seeing Jon Ossoff through to victory as we come to the final days of this campaign,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement.

Collins’ campaign, in a statement, said they were “grateful to every group that’s standing with Rep. Collins and welcome their continued support.”

“With early voting underway, he’s working every day to earn the vote of every Georgian, because Jon Ossoff is a radical leftist who wants to raise their taxes and make their families less safe. Rep. Collins will keep making that case until Ossoff is held accountable on Election Day,” Collins spokesperson Meyer Siegfried said in a statement.

Ossoff’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.

SMP had pledged in the spring to spend $20 million on television for the race, but as of Friday had only spent or reserved $11.5 million, per AdImpact. SLF had announced an initial $44 million investment, but has so far only spent or reserved roughly $20 million.

No Going Back PAC, which is affiliated with President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, has also dramatically scaled back its own spending on the race over the last two weeks, according to AdImpact.

Republican operatives are still monitoring Georgia’s governor’s race, where recent public polling shows GOP nominee Rick Jackson slightly ahead of Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. Republicans believe Jackson’s strength could keep the Senate race closer than currently expected.

But they have grown increasingly pessimistic about their prospects of flipping Georgia’s Senate seat, as Collins trails Ossoff in the polls and the overall environment for the GOP continues to grow more difficult. SLF’s decision to go dark last week — so close to the election — raises questions about how much more the group will ultimately invest in the state.

“Every dollar Schumer spends in Georgia is one not spent on offense in red states. Republicans’ financial advantage doesn’t just show up in more ads, it keeps Dems on defense,” a person familiar with SLF’s spending plans told Blue Light News.

Ossoff also holds a massive fundraising advantage over Collins, who had just over $1 million cash on hand as of Oct. 1, giving Ossoff a major financial cushion in the final stretch even before the major Senate super PACs pulled back their spending.

The GOP has been triaging races across the map: SLF shifted money out of North Carolina, another perennial battleground, while moving resources toward defending GOP-held seats in states like Kansas and South Carolina, where the Senate contests have become increasingly competitive.

Still, even as the money going into Georgia has continued to slow, Trump appears to be prioritizing the longtime battleground.

At a rally in Dalton on Friday, he urged voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot, while praising Collins and the state’s GOP governor’s nominee, Rick Jackson.

Meredith Lee Hill and Andrew Howard contributed.