Congress
House members keep losing their bids for higher office. Some think they know why.
Nearly 30 House members who were sworn in at the start of this Congress have launched campaigns for other, more prestigious offices. Voters have not been especially interested in granting them promotions.
The trend was on full display in recent weeks: Rep. Randy Feenstra lost the GOP nomination to be Iowa governor Tuesday despite a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, just as Rep. Dusty Johnson fell short in his bid for governor of South Dakota. A week prior, Rep. Chip Roy lost a runoff to be Texas attorney general.
House Democrats have been similarly hapless. In the Illinois Senate primary, Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi both lost to the state’s lieutenant governor, and in Texas, Rep. Jasmine Crockett fell to a state representative in the Democratic Senate race.
Some of those who have been on the campaign trail this year have a simple explanation for the trend: It’s hard for members of a dysfunctional and unpopular institution to ask voters to reward them with even bigger jobs.
“There’s definitely those out there who think, ‘Well, it’s broken, and they’ve been in it a long time, and obviously it’s still broken,’ so we kind of get the blame for it,” said Rep. Buddy Carter, who fell short last month in making it to a runoff in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary.
Even as public sentiment toward Congress has crashed to historic lows and partisan mudslinging has crescendoed to a fever pitch, some House members have found success.
Rep. Mike Collins advanced in the race Carter lost and has led most polls of the GOP runoff. Reps. Andy Barr and Ashley Hinson are now the Republican Senate nominees in Kentucky and Iowa, respectively, and Rep. Julia Letlow is the favorite in a GOP Senate runoff in Louisiana. One Democrat sworn in for the 119th Congress, New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill, is now governor.
But if congressional service was once considered a helpful asset not so long ago — half of last year’s elected class of freshmen senators served previously in the House — members now fear that their time on Capitol Hill has become politically toxic.
In the races House members are losing, state-level officials and political outsiders have found more success.
“The voters all across the country aren’t particularly fond of D.C., so are you perceived to be part of the establishment or someone that’s been battling it?” said Rep. David Schweikert, who is now running for the GOP nomination for Arizona governor.
As he spoke to a reporter in the Capitol, he held a mug with the words, “I’d rather be in Arizona.”
Schweikert is facing a colleague, Rep. Andy Biggs, in next month’s primary. Polls suggest either man would face an uphill battle to unseat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Other House members are finding long odds as they look for seats in the Senate or in state houses — even as some distance themselves from their current positions.
In Tennessee, for example, GOP Rep. John Rose has trailed Sen. Marsha Blackburn in public polling even as he plays down his service in Washington. In one recent ad, he identified himself as “a father, a farmer and a CEO,” and his website also makes no mention he is a sitting member of Congress.
Tuesday’s GOP primary for South Carolina governor could at least temporarily extinguish the political careers of two more other members, Reps. Ralph Norman and Nancy Mace. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette was already a front-runner in several public polls, and won Trump’s endorsement last week.
The pileup of losses could weigh even more heavily on House leaders who have struggled to get members to show up for votes in the closely divided chamber. Speaker Mike Johnson has already canceled multiple voting days this year to accommodate House members’ primary schedules, and the risk of no-shows is likely to increase.
For instance, Dusty Johnson, usually a reliable leadership ally, missed votes Wednesday just as a contentious effort to curb Trump’s military campaign against Iran hit the House floor.
There are, of course, many reasons for success or failure in politics, and some members who have been on other ballot lines this year have been more careful about attributing their fortunes to the House itself. Roy, for instance, pointed out that he was facing a largely self-funded opponent — an oil-and-gas executive who poured $17 million into the race and was able to use the funding advantage to connect with voters.
“You just got to go to where the voters are,” he said. “Some guys have gone out, done well. Some have not.”
Kelly, whose House career is ending after 14 years representing a Chicago-area district, blamed bad timing, insufficient fundraising and other pressures as reasons she and other members have struggled.
“Most people highly respected me for my work in Congress,” Kelly said in an interview. “Even the ones that didn’t endorse me out loud.”
Still, voter sentiment is growing clear to many lawmakers, who are warily watching their own races ahead of November.
“People are anti-incumbent,” said one House Republican who is seeking reelection and was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “They’re mad. They want change across the board.”
The rest of the year is likely to be a mixed bag for House incumbents. GOP Reps. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma and Harriet Hageman of Wyoming appear to be well on their way to winning Senate nominations — and general elections — in solid red states. Polls show Rep. Byron Donalds is on track to be Florida’s next governor, and Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore is well-positioned to win an Alabama Senate seat if he can emerge from a competitive Republican runoff.
But Democratic Reps. Angie Craig of Minnesota and Haley Stevens of Michigan have struggled to break out in their respective Senate primaries. If he can emerge from a crowded primary field, GOP Rep. John James faces a tough general election in the Michigan governor race, as does Rep. Tom Tiffany, a Republican running for governor in Wisconsin.
All of them will have to convince voters that their years of service in Washington are worth rewarding.
“I was a mayor for eight years, I was a state legislator for 10 years, I’ve been in Congress for 12 years, and I feel like that’s important,” Carter said. “I think experience and that service is invaluable [but] I think it kind of worked against me in a lot of ways … just being in politics for so long.”
Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley rescheduled a planned vote on Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general late Friday in a preemptive move as negotiations between the Trump administration and GOP holdouts continue.
The vote, now set for Tuesday after a scheduled Thursday vote was postponed, isn’t an indication that a deal allowing for Blanche’s confirmation is near, so much as it is a nod to Judiciary Committee rules that require three days of notice for a panel meeting.
There is no sign that President Donald Trump is about to acquiesce to the unflinching demands of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who wants a controversial settlement agreement between Trump and the IRS substantially pared back.
Cornyn, who lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed candidate, wants the Justice Department to nullify a $1.8 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” and limit the scope of a tax audit immunity component of the pact.
Trump told reporters earlier Friday the fund is “dead” but added “I wish it weren’t.”
“I’d like to see them compensated,” he added, referring to people he considers victims of government abuse, including participants in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack.
To advance Tuesday, Blanche needs to pick up Cornyn and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), another senator on the panel with similar concerns. He can’t lose any GOP votes if he wants to be reported favorably out of the Judiciary Committee.
“Chairman Grassley wants Todd Blanche’s nomination to be successful,” said a Judiciary Committee spokesperson, who declined to be named. “Noticing the markup gives more time for the White House to secure the votes for the President’s nominee. Grassley would like to see Blanche confirmed before the August recess as he has an excellent record restoring law and order and keeping Americans safe.”
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is zeroing in on one of House Republicans’ biggest contests — a purple district in Nebraska — when he starts his recess campaign sprint.
Scalise will travel to Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in the Omaha area for an event with Republican Brinker Harding in the coming days, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter granted anonymity to share plans not yet made public. Republicans are digging in to defend the seat, which Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential race and is among Democrats’ best pick up opportunities this fall as they seek to flip the House.
Harding is running against Democratic consultant Denise Powell to replace retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon. Bacon, a moderate-leaning Republican, flipped the Omaha district red in 2016.
After Nebraska, Scalise is planning to travel across the country throughout August, including to defend GOP incumbents Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ and Zach Nunn’s key battleground seats in Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts and Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District.
He’ll boost candidates working to flip blue districts like Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District and Mike LiPetri in New York’s 3rd Congressional District.
Scalise also plans to travel to Michigan, Colorado, South Carolina and Texas for campaign events over the August recess.
President Donald Trump goaded John Cornyn on social media Friday morning, accusing the Texas senator of withholding his vote on Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination in retaliation for Trump’s central role in his political demise.
Cornyn, who lost his May primary to Texas’ scandal-ridden attorney general, the Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton, has threatened to block Blanche’s nomination in the Senate Judiciary Committee until the White House promises to permanently shelve its $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund” in writing — something Trump appears unwilling to do.
“John Cornyn never had a problem with the so called “Fund,” which will not benefit me, but rather the great American Patriots who were hunted down like dogs and whose lives were unfairly and illegally destroyed by the Crooked Joe Biden Administration, until after I decided to Endorse and Support his Republican Primary opponent in Texas, who easily won the Nomination for the United States Senate,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Several Republicans bristled at the fund, which could have been deployed to compensate Americans who faced charges after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and which gives the president and his family audit immunity over taxes. At his July confirmation hearing, Blanche said that the fund, part of a settlement the president reached with the IRS, was defunct. But the administration has been “reluctant to change” the text of the settlement, Cornyn told reporters Thursday.
Trump signaled his continued support for the Jan 6 rioters on Friday.
“I will always feel that these victims of government abuse should be paid back for what they were forced to endure, their lives have been ruined!” he wrote. “Millions of people agree with me, as was proven in my landslide Presidential win, where this was a major subject of debate, and so did John Cornyn, until he lost his Election to an opponent that I Endorsed.”
On Thursday, the president suggested that he could punt a Senate vote on Blanche until after Cornyn — and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) — leaves the chamber at the end of the year. Cornyn, however, suggested on social media that there are other Republican senators with concerns about the fund.
“After the midterms, who knows who’s going to be the next United States senator from North Carolina or Texas?” Cornyn told reporters.
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