Congress
US to reach $41T debt ceiling as soon as late winter, forecasters predict
The U.S. government is on track to reach its $41.1 trillion debt limit next year — likely between late winter and mid-summer, a trusted independent forecaster predicted Thursday.
The new projection comes from the Bipartisan Policy Center, which used the latest data on U.S. cash flow to predict when the nation will again risk defaulting on its billions of dollars in loans, after Republicans acted last summer to raise the limit by $5 trillion through their One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Now the next Congress and President Donald Trump will need to enact a new law to further raise or waive the borrowing cap, in order to stave off an unprecedented U.S. debt default many economists predict would depress the global economy.
Once the debt limit is reached, the Treasury Department begins what it calls “extraordinary measures” to tap cash reserves and use accounting maneuvers that keep the U.S. from breaching the ceiling. Those cash conservation tactics are likely to buy another six to nine months, the nonpartisan think tank predicts.
Voting to allow the federal government to rack up more red ink comes with growing political risk for U.S. elected officials as the country’s debt eclipses its gross domestic product and voters increasingly voice concern about the U.S. deficit.
Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper predicted earlier this year that federal debt held by the public will rise from more than 100 percent of GDP this year to 120 percent in a decade, far exceeding the previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946. At the same time, new polling shows that more U.S. adults now view the deficit as a bigger problem than they did a year ago, as the United States is on track to spend $2 trillion more than it takes in during the current fiscal year.
Congress
Democrats divided over failed Lebanon war powers resolution
House Democratic leaders opposed a resolution offered by a member of their own caucus that would have limited the Trump administration’s military options in Lebanon — showcasing long-simmering friction between top Democrats and progressives over conflict in the Middle East.
Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) forced a vote Thursday afternoon on a war powers resolution to rein in the Trump administration in Lebanon, where Israel has attacked Hezbollah. The resolution — which would have forced U.S. troops out of Lebanon in seven days — failed 91 to 324.
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) was among those backing Tlaib’s effort. But in a joint statement, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar of California said the fact that there are currently no U.S. servicemembers involved in combat operations or hostilities in Lebanon gave them pause.
The three House Democratic leaders said they would work with Tlaib on new legislation to more effectively keep U.S. troops out of Lebanon, and that they “stand with the Lebanese people, the government of Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces in their efforts to live peacefully and defeat Hezbollah.”
They added that they also oppose “any effort by the Trump administration to entangle the United States in a war in Lebanon.”
All but one Republican opposed the measure, with interparty tensions flaring Wednesday during floor debate as Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) accused Tlaib of “advocating for terrorists.”
Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) who was presiding, struck Miller’s comments from the official record after an hours-long stand-off.
Congress
How 1 Republican proposes to pass election safeguards without Democrats
Rep. Julie Fedorchak will introduce legislation Thursday that aims to give Republicans a chance of incorporating some aspects of the GOP’s controversial elections overhaul into their next party-line bill that is set to be released in the coming weeks.
The North Dakota Republican’s bill, known as the “SAVE America Through REAL ID Act,” will try to meet strict Senate rules for the budget reconciliation process by establishing a grant program encouraging states to require federally mandated REAL IDs to vote. That would be an alternative to the proof-of-citizenship and voter-ID mandates in the original SAVE America Act that would likely be excluded from a party-line bill by the Senate parliamentarian.
REAL ID refers to federal verification standards for state-issued photo identification that ensure the holder is a U.S. citizen or legal permanent resident. It could serve as a backdoor way to implement a citizenship requirement, though legal permanent immigrants can legally hold REAL ID cards but cannot vote in federal elections. The bill would allocate $50 million each year from 2027 through 2031 for the program.
Congressional Republicans have struggled to pass the SAVE America Act, with one version stalled in the Senate despite repeated demands for action from President Donald Trump. Turning to reconciliation would sidestep a Democratic filibuster, but it would limit the GOP’s policy options given the strict fiscal rules governing the process. Fedorchak said in an interview the legislation aims to address a major concern she hears from critics about the SAVE America Act — that lower-income Americans won’t be able to afford REAL ID-compliant credentials.
“In order to address that one issue, we’ve created this grant program for states to use to help people who meet the income qualifications … to be able to get a free REAL ID,” she said.
That budgetary impact should allow the measure to be included in a reconciliation bill, she argued.
Speaker Mike Johnson also raised the topic in a closed-door meeting with about a dozen House Republicans of the Republican Governance Group caucus at their lunch Wednesday, according to three people inside the meeting.
Johnson indicated leaders were exploring how and if they could add some aspects of the SAVE America Act to the new GOP-only bill that House Republicans are racing to shape in the coming weeks.
The speaker briefly gauged interest among more centrist-leaning Republicans in the room on the topic as well as other proposed pieces of the forthcoming party-line package.
Fedorchak has discussed the elections legislation with Johnson and other key Republicans, including members of the House Administration Committee. GOP Rep. Laurel Lee, a former secretary of State in Florida, has also been working on the legislation and plans to co-sponsor the bill, Fedorchak said.
Congress
Senate GOP defeats first attempt to kill DOJ payout fund
Senate Republicans beat back an early attempt by Democrats to effectively kill their immigration enforcement bill.
Senators voted 50-49 to reject an attempt by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to send the measure back to the Judiciary Committee to insert language that would kill President Donald Trump’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund.” The move was aimed at codifying the promise acting Attorney General Todd Blanche made to House appropriators Tuesday that the administration would scrap plans for the fund.
“Democrats will force Republicans to vote on Trump’s MAGA slush fund, his lifetime tax exemption, his billion-dollar taxpayer funded ballroom,” Schumer said from the Senate floor, referring also to an IRS settlement ruling out future Trump audits and the White House project to replace the razed East Wing.
Three GOP senators — Susan Collins of Maine, Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Jon Husted of Ohio — voted for Schumer’s motion. All are seeking reelection this year.
The motion from Schumer was the first of what is expected to be many attempts from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle at inserting language into the measure about the fund during the so-called “vote-a-rama.”
But unlike other expected attempts, Schumer’s motion could have been approved with a simple majority vote. Other fund-related amendments are likely to be at a higher 60-vote threshold.
There is no limit to the number of amendments that can be offered during “vote-a-rama” aside from senatorial fatigue, and both parties will also be offering proposals to reshape the core immigration enforcement provisions of the bill.
Republicans held the vote on Schumer’s motion open for more than two hours as leaders worked through concerns from several GOP holdouts who have wanted to curtail the fund. In addition to several proposals from Democrats, Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana have filed related amendments.
“I think we’ll have a vote or two around that issue — I can’t predict how it comes out,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said during the lengthy vote on Schumer’s proposal. “People are going to have the option to vote for it.”
Adding language to the bill affecting the DOJ payout fund could divide Republicans and threaten the underlying immigration enforcement bill’s chances of clearing the Senate.
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