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Capitol agenda: Shutdown hinges on razor-thin rule vote

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House Republican leaders are facing a white-knuckle vote Tuesday morning as they move to end the partial shutdown after four days.

Here’s what we’re watching on both sides of the aisle as an unpredictable day shakes out in the House.

— Razor-thin rule vote: Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump got involved in wrangling hard-liner holdouts Monday who were threatening to oppose the procedural measure setting up final debate of the $1.2 trillion spending package.

Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) started the day threatening to tank the rule if the SAVE Act, a partisan elections bill, wasn’t attached. But a White House meeting left the duo in a better place, with Luna telling reporters Monday night she got “assurances on the standing filibuster” that would allow the bill to pass the Senate.

One big caveat: There’s been no acknowledgment from Senate Majority Leader John Thune that any such deal is in place.

Various proposals for a “standing filibuster” or “talking filibuster” have been rattling around for years on both sides of the aisle — most recently from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) — but that hasn’t convinced the vast majority of Senate Republicans who want to keep the 60-vote threshold in place.

While Luna said she expected “an announcement” on a rules change that would force Democrats to hold the floor in order to block the bill, no such announcement appears imminent. But her remarks — and a big midday Truth Social nudge from Trump — were enough to buoy GOP leaders.

Asked Monday night if he was confident he had the votes to move forward and end the shutdown, Johnson said, “I think we do.”

— Dems fume over another Senate jam: While Democrats are expected to unite against the rule, party leaders declined to comment on how they would vote on the overall package ahead of Tuesday morning’s closed-door caucus meeting.

It appears it will be a vote of conscience: A whip alert circulated Monday night urged a “no” vote on the rule but did not offer any guidance for the underlying bill, which funds most federal agencies but ends Department of Homeland Security funding after Feb. 13.

Still, many House Democrats have been left grumbling — again — after being sidelined in negotiations between Senate Democrats and the White House.

Top leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are playing down tensions over the deal, but many in the rank-and-file are miffed at getting jammed with a spending bill they oppose for a third time in less than a year.

“We end up having to answer for what [the Senate] won’t do, and it can be very frustrating,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said.

What else we’re watching:   

— House moves to overturn DC tax law: The House Rules Committee teed up floor consideration this week for a bill that would roll back a D.C. law that declines to apply key tax cuts from last summer’s megabill to local income taxes in the city.

In that measure, the D.C. Council decided not to adopt 13 separate tax provisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including several key incentives the GOP restored for businesses and the deductions for tipped income, overtime pay, new car loan interest and seniors.

The Senate Homeland Security Committee is scheduled to consider its version of the resolution Wednesday.

Meredith Lee Hill and Bernie Becker contributed to this report.

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Congress

Pete Aguilar announces run for whip

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House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar has formally announced his bid for House majority whip.

“With a Democratic majority, we’ll have the tools to rein in this out-of-control administration and investigate the agencies, officials and corporations that have been making life harder and more expensive for our communities,” the California Democrat wrote in a letter to colleagues Thursday. “I look forward to working with each of you to deliver on our affordability agenda.”

Aguilar is currently unopposed for the No. 3 slot in the new House Democratic majority.

As whip, Aguilar will have to stitch together an ideologically diverse caucus that could be as large as 260 members. With such a significant margin, Aguilar would have more cushion to lose votes on key legislation than Republican leaders, who have struggled to wrangle their members on party-line bills over the last two years.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York and Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts have already announced their candidacies for speaker and majority leader, respectively. They also have no challengers at this time.

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Top House Republican: Trump ‘unfavorability’ led to losses

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Rep. French Hill, a senior Republican who barely won reelection in Little Rock this week, said President Donald Trump’s “unfavorability” is to blame for sweeping GOP losses.

The Associated Press called the race for Hill on Thursday after the six-term lawmaker and House Financial Services Committee chair faced off against Democrat Chris Jones. Hill won by less than 2 percentage points.

“President Trump’s unfavorability had a lot of impact on races across the country,” Hill said in an interview. “I think that’s evident by some of the exit polling. We had, in my judgment, recruited good candidates who had good funding for their campaigns. But it was a wave election, and we lost a lot of really good, constructive members of the House.”

It was the closest race yet for Hill, who struggled to win even as he outspent Jones, a former Arkansas gubernatorial candidate, 3 to 1. As House Financial Services chair, Hill has been instrumental the last two years in enacting bipartisan housing and cryptocurrency legislation.

During the campaign, Hill was willing to distance himself from Trump, especially when it came to touting the housing bill that the president refused to sign.

In the interview Wednesday, Hill suggested that Republicans could break further with Trump during the final two years of his term.

“He will be considered a lame duck, and that often has members of both political parties looking out at who will be the standard-bearers in the 2028 presidential election,” he said. “So, I think certainly that will influence policymaking and politics inside the House and Senate.”

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Katherine Clark launches majority leader bid

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Rep. Katherine Clark of Massachusetts officially announced her bid for majority leader in a letter to colleagues Thursday.

Clark, currently the No. 2 to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, is widely considered a shoo-in among her colleagues. She is currently unopposed, and if she wins, she would be the first woman with the title and most progressive member of the top leadership trio that is also expected to include Jeffries as speaker and Rep. Pete Aguilar as whip.

In line with leadership’s campaign message, Clark emphasized “Affordability, Affordability, Affordability” in her pitch to the caucus. Specifically, she named “ending the reckless war in Iran, rescinding Trump’s tariffs, reversing Republicans’ catastrophic cuts to healthcare and food assistance, curing off their giveaways to the Epstein Class, and pursuing rigorous oversight of this corrupt administration.”

To wrangle House Democrats’ massive majority — which is tracking to reach over 255 seats — Clark vowed to members: “At every decision point, I intend to work closely with you to understand the needs of your district and maximize your ability to deliver for your constituents.”

“Democrats will succeed by working as a team.” she added.

Clark will get a vote during House Democratic leadership elections scheduled for Nov. 18 and 19.

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