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4 ways China-US relations could fracture in 2026

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The message from Capitol Hill on both sides of the aisle is clear: Get ready for U.S. relations with China to spiral all over again in the new year.

The one-year trade truce brokered in October between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is already looking shaky. And lawmakers are preparing to reup clashes over trade, Taiwan and cyber-intrusions when they return in January.

It’s like a heavyweight fight, and we’re in that short time period in-between rounds, but both sides need to be preparing for what is next after the truce,” Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), a member of the House Select Committee on China, said in an interview.

Blue Light News talked to more than 25 lawmakers, including those on the House Select Committee on China, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s East Asia subcommittee and the Congressional Executive Commission on China, for their views on the durability of the trade treaty. Both Republicans and Democrats warned of turbulence ahead.

More than 20 of the lawmakers said they doubt Xi will deliver on key pledges the White House said he made in October, including reducing the flow of precursor chemicals to Mexico that cartels process into fentanyl and buying agreed volumes of U.S. agricultural goods.

“China can never be trusted. They’re always looking for an angle,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said.

That pessimism comes despite an easing in U.S.-China tensions since the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. The bruising cycle of tit-for-tat tariffs that briefly hit triple digits earlier this year is currently on pause. Both countries have relaxed export restrictions on essential items (rare earths for the U.S, chip design software for China), while Beijing has committed to “expanding agricultural product trade” in an apparent reference to the suspension of imports of U.S. agricultural products it imposed earlier this year.

This trend may continue, given that Trump is likely to want stability in the U.S.-China relationship ahead of a summit with Xi planned for April in Beijing. “We’re starting to see some movement now on some of their tariff issues and the fentanyl precursor issue,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said.

But a series of issues have been brushed aside in negotiations or left in limbo — a status quo the Trump administration can only maintain for so long. The U.S.-China trade deal on rare earths that Bessent said the two countries would finalize by Thanksgiving remains unsettled. And the White House hasn’t confirmed reporting from earlier this month that Beijing-based ByteDance has finalized the sale of the TikTok social media app ahead of the Jan. 23 deadline for that agreement.

“The idea that we’re in a period of stability with Beijing is simply not accurate,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Shaheen has been sounding the alarm on China’s national security threats since she entered the Senate in 2009. But even some lawmakers who have been more open to engagement with Beijing — such as California Democratic Reps. Ro Khanna and Ami Bera — said that they don’t expect the armistice to last.

The White House is more upbeat about the prospects for U.S.-China trade ties.

“President Trump’s close relationship with President Xi is helping ensure that both countries are able to continue building on progress and continue resolving outstanding issues,” the White House said in a statement, adding that the administration “continues to monitor China’s compliance with our trade agreement.” It declined to comment on the TikTok deal.

Still, the lawmakers Blue Light News spoke with described four issues that could derail U.S.-China ties in the New Year:

A soybean spoiler

U.S. soybean farmers’ reliance on the Chinese market gives Beijing a powerful non-tariff trade weapon — and China doesn’t appear to be following through on promises to renew purchases.

The standoff over soybeans started in May, when China halted those purchases, raising the prospect of financial ruin across farming states including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana — key political constituencies for the GOP in the congressional midterm elections next year.

The White House said last month that Xi committed to buying 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in November and December. But so far, Beijing has only purchased a fraction of that agreed total, NBC reported this month.

“What agitates Trump and causes him to react quickly are things that are more domestic and closer to home,” Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii) said. China’s foot-dragging on soybean purchases “is the most triggering because it’s hurting American farmers and consumers, so that’s where we could see the most volatility in the relationship,” she said.

That trigger could come on Feb. 28 — the new deadline for that 12 million metric ton purchase, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced earlier this month.

The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment on whether Beijing plans to meet this deadline.

The White House said one of the aspects of the trade deal it is monitoring is soybean purchases through this growing season.

The Taiwan tinderbox

Beijing’s threats to invade Taiwan are another near-term potential flashpoint, even though the U.S. hasn’t prioritized the issue in its national security strategy or talks between Xi and Trump.

China has increased its preparations for a Taiwan invasion this year. In October, the Chinese military debuted a new military barge system that addresses some of the challenges of landing on the island’s beaches by deploying a bridge for cargo ships to unload tanks or trucks directly onto the shore.

“China is tightening the noose around the island,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who joined a bipartisan congressional delegation to China in September and returned calling for better communications between the U.S. and Chinese militaries.

Some of the tension around Taiwan is playing out in the wider region, as Beijing pushes to expand its military reach and its influence. Chinese fighter jets locked radar — a prelude to opening fire — on Japanese aircraft earlier this month in the East China Sea.

“There is a real chance that Xi overplays his hand on antagonizing our allies, particularly Australia and Japan,” Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) said. “There is still a line [China] cannot cross without making this truce impossible to sustain.”

The U.S. has a decades-long policy of “strategic ambiguity” under which it refuses to spell out how the U.S. would respond to Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Trump has also adhered to that policy. “You’ll find out if it happens,” Trump said in an interview with 60 Minutes in November.

More export restrictions on the way

Beijing has eased its export restrictions on rare earths — metallic elements essential to both civilian and military applications — but could reimpose those blocks at any time.

Ten of the 25 lawmakers who spoke to Blue Light News said they suspect Beijing will reimpose those export curbs as a convenient pressure point in the coming months.

“At the center of the crack in the truce is China’s ability to levy export restrictions, especially its chokehold on the global supply of rare earths and other critical minerals,” Rep. André Carson (D-Ind.) said.

Others are worried China will choose to expand its export controls to another product category for which it has market dominance — pharmaceuticals. Beijing supplies 80 percent of the U.S. supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients — the foundations of common drugs to treat everything from high blood pressure to type 2 diabetes.

“Overnight, China could turn off the spigot and many basic pharmaceuticals, including things like aspirin, go away from the supply chain in the United States,” Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas) said.

China restarted exports of rare earths earlier this month, and its Commerce Ministry pledged “timely approval” of such exports under a new licensing system, state media reported. Beijing has not indicated its intent to restrict the export of pharmaceuticals or their components as a trade weapon. But the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission urged the Food and Drug Administration to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese sources of pharmaceuticals in its annual report last month.

The Chinese embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Growing Chinese military muscle

China’s drive to develop a world-class military that can challenge traditional U.S. dominion of the Indo-Pacific could also derail relations between Washington and Beijing in 2026.

China’s expanding navy— which, at more than 200 warships, is now the world’s largest — is helping Beijing show off its power across the region.

The centerpiece of that effort in 2025 has been the addition of a third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which entered into service last month. The Fujian is two-thirds the size of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. But like the Ford, it boasts state-of-the-art electromagnetic catapults to launch J-35 and J-15T fighter jets.

The Trump administration sees that as a threat.

The U.S. aims to insulate allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific from possible Chinese “sustained successful military aggression” powered by Beijing’s “historic military buildup,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this month at the Reagan National Defense Forum.

Five lawmakers said they see China’s increasingly aggressive regional military footprint as incompatible with U.S. efforts to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing in the months ahead.

“We know the long-term goal of China is really economic and diplomatic and military domination around the world, and they see the United States as an adversary,” Moran said.

Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.

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Congress

Trump met with Coinbase CEO before bashing banks over crypto bill

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President Donald Trump met privately on Tuesday with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong before publicly backing the company’s position in an ongoing lobbying clash with banks that has derailed a major cryptocurrency bill, according to two people with knowledge of the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss a closed-door matter.

It is unclear what was discussed during the meeting, but it came just before Trump wrote on social media that banks “need to make a good deal with the Crypto Industry” in order to advance digital asset legislation that has stalled on Capitol Hill. He wrote that a recently adopted crypto law is “being threatened and undermined by the Banks, and that is unacceptable” — echoing Coinbase’s position.

A spokesperson for Coinbase declined to comment. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The policy clash centers around whether crypto exchanges like Coinbase should be able to offer rewards programs that pay an annual percentage yield to customers who hold digital tokens known as stablecoins that are designed to maintain a value of $1. Wall Street groups are warning that allowing yield-like payments on stablecoins could lead customers to pull deposits from bank accounts and threaten lending that is critical to the economy.

Banks are pushing to ban any type of stablecoin yield payments as part of a sweeping crypto regulatory bill that is currently pending in the Senate. But a wide array of digital asset firms have fought back, and the rift helped derail the so-called crypto market structure legislation bill earlier this year. The legislation would establish new rules governing how crypto tokens are overseen by market regulators — a longtime lobbying goal for digital asset firms, which say they need “regulatory clarity” from Washington.

Coinbase, the largest U.S.-based crypto exchange, has played a key role in the spat. On the eve of a scheduled Senate Banking Committee markup in January, Armstrong came out against the most recent publicly released draft of the crypto bill. He warned in part against “Draft amendments that would kill rewards on stablecoins, allowing banks to ban their competition.” The markup was later postponed, and the bill has remained stalled ever since.

Since then, White House officials have sought to mediate a compromise between the two sides. The White House hosted a series of meetings with representatives from the banking and crypto sectors, but significant differences remain between the two sides and no deal has emerged.

Coinbase has become a major player in Trump’s Washington, thanks in part to massive political spending that is already beginning to shake up the 2026 midterm elections. The exchange, which was co-founded by Armstrong, is a leading backer of a crypto super PAC group known as Fairshake that is armed with a war chest of more than $190 million. Coinbase also donated to Trump’s inaugural committee and to the president’s White House ballroom renovation effort.

In his post on Truth Social Tuesday, Trump included a line that Armstrong has uttered verbatim in interviews about the stablecoin yield fight: “Americans should earn more money on their money.” Separately, on Tuesday night, Trump also posted a picture of an X post from Armstrong praising him for delivering “on his campaign promise to make America the crypto capital of the world.”

The crypto “Industry cannot be taken from the People of America when it is so close to becoming truly successful,” Trump wrote in the initial post.

Declan Harty contributed to this report.

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Lawmakers anticipate Trump will seek emergency funding for ‘open-ended’ Iran war

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Lawmakers given classified briefings Tuesday evening on the U.S. military conflict in Iran expect President Donald Trump will ask Congress for emergency cash to finance the war.

During the closed-door meetings on Capitol Hill, top Trump administration officials said only that they are considering a supplemental military funding request, according to lawmakers who attended the briefings. But senior intelligence and defense officials described a vast military operation that many members anticipate will require extra funding on top of the nearly $1 trillion Congress has already given the military over the last year.

“I think there will be a supplemental coming,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told reporters upon leaving his classified Senate briefing. “We’ll have to approve that.”

Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the Senate committee overseeing funding for the Department of Homeland Security, said after the briefing that the military operation “feels like a multitrillion-dollar, open-ended conflict with a very confusing and constantly shifting set of goals” because top Trump administration officials “are refusing to take off the table ground operations.”

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) also described the U.S.-Iran conflict as “a massive operation” that’s “rapidly changing.”

“It sounded very open-ended to me,” he added.

Some lawmakers typically opposed to increased spending are open to the idea of providing extra money to fuel the U.S. military’s operation against Iran. “I think it would have support of Republicans,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said about a supplemental funding request Tuesday night.

“Everybody always wants money, any excuse, whether they’ll need it or not. My guess: They’ll need it,” Johnson continued. “We’re shooting off a lot of ammo. Gotta restock.”

But Democratic votes will be needed to pass any emergency funding package in the Senate, and minority party leaders say they will need far more details from the Trump administration if they are going to consider support for new Pentagon cash.

“Before you can feel satisfied about a supplemental — and I haven’t seen it — you have to know what the real goals are and what the endgame is,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters Tuesday.

Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, a senior Democratic appropriator, said he expects the Pentagon will send Congress a supplemental funding request and vowed to “make sure we are making all the investments we can” to keep U.S. troops safe.

But Coons said Trump administration officials need to testify at an open hearing so “the American people can get questions answered about the failures in planning that led to some of the challenges, losses and mistakes in this war.”

Any supplemental spending package to support the Iran war effort would come on top of the more than $150 billion the Pentagon got from the party-line tax and spending package Republicans enacted last summer and nearly $839 billion in regular funding Congress cleared last month.

The House’s lead Democratic appropriator, Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro, said lawmakers have yet to receive information about how much the Pentagon has spent already.

“They’re talking about a supplemental, but we haven’t got a clue,” DeLauro told reporters after Trump administration officials briefed House lawmakers later Tuesday. “There’s no cost estimate of what they have spent so far. Is there anybody writing down what the hell they’re spending? No.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday that Republicans “forward-funded” military operations with the party-line package enacted last summer but that lawmakers will be “paying attention” to any need for extra money.

“Not only do we have the resources to conduct the operations right now, but a lot of our allies in the region also have capabilities that are coming to bear now,” Thune said.

Even before the strikes on Iran, Trump was eyeing a massive hike in military spending for the upcoming fiscal year. He pledged to pursue a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget, a roughly 50 percent increase to military spending.

The president said Tuesday, however, that U.S. military resources are far from depleted.

“We have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons,” Trump said on social media. “Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies.”

Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Connor O’Brien, Joe Gould and Calen Razor contributed to this report. 

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House Republicans are publicly cheering Trump’s Iran war. Privately, many are worried.

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The vast majority of congressional Republicans are publicly supportive of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran. But many are harboring private misgivings about the risks to American troops and global stability — as well as their own political fortunes — should the military campaign drag on indefinitely.

Trump’s comments this week that the bombing could last “four to five weeks” or more, that he doesn’t care about public polling and that the U.S. will do “whatever” it takes to secure its objectives are among the factors that have put lawmakers on edge.

Some of the anxieties have started emerging publicly.

“The constitutional sequence is, you engage the public before you go to war unless an attack is imminent. And imminent means like, imminent — not like something that’s been over a 47-year period of time,” Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), a former Army ranger, said Tuesday.

Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), a combat veteran who served in the Iraq War and has cautioned in the past against regime change efforts, called it “a very dicey, a very dynamic situation right now” on the Charlie Kirk Show Monday while also making clear he would give Trump deference.

“I hope it works out,” he added. “Military operations like this can go sideways so fast, you know, it will make your head spin.”

But a wider group of House Republicans granted anonymity to speak candidly shared deeper concerns about the strikes. All said they would stand with Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson this week to oppose a largely Democratic effort to force votes on restraining the president. But they said their support was not guaranteed over the long term.

“Most Republicans want clear objectives, clearer than they are now,” said one House Republican, who added members have pressed GOP leaders and White House officials to be more consistent in articulating the administration’s military goals.

Another was troubled by Trump’s own shifting statements on when the bombing campaign might wrap up, whether he is seeking the fall of the Islamic regime and whether ground troops might ultimately be necessary.

“Sounds a little bit like President Lyndon Johnson going into Vietnam, doesn’t it?” the lawmaker said.

Trump officials and top House GOP leaders have already moved to ease potential member concerns. Johnson, for instance, said leaving a classified briefing Monday that “the operation will be wound up quickly, by God’s grace and will.”

“That is our prayer for everybody involved,” he added.

A White House memo sent to congressional Republicans Monday outlined several military objectives for the bombing campaign and said Trump should be “commended” for taking on a hostile state sponsor of terrorism.

But despite denying that Trump had acted in pursuit of regime change, the document also said the Iranian regime “would be defeated” and included other contradictory statements about the reasons for the strikes — while trying to sidestep the question of whether the strikes constituted a “war,” a word Trump himself has used.

Beyond the fears of a prolonged military engagement that could be costly in dollars and American lives, Republicans are also facing the prospect of a stock market tumble and rising gas prices that could fall hardest on vulnerable incumbents ahead of the midterms. Many of those members promised their constituents, much as Trump did, that they would not engage in endless war.

The planned Thursday vote on a bipartisan war powers resolution has surfaced some of the GOP discomfort, even as party leaders and White House officials whip members against it — including those most at risk of losing their seats.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who is co-leading the war powers push with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), pointed to the White House memo as further evidence of incoherence on the administration’s part.

“So they’re going to defeat a terrorist regime that rules a country of 90 million people, but that’s not war?” he said in an interview.

Johnson argued Monday it would be

Also raising concerns in advance of the vote is Davidson, who has long railed against extended U.S. wars abroad. He said in a social media post Monday it was “troubling” that Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday that an imminent Israeli attack on Iran forced the U.S. to strike. He also raised concerns to reporters Tuesday about some of the administration’s claims.

House Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) said in an interview Tuesday he didn’t think the war powers vote was necessary and that Trump was operating within his legal authority.

The vote, he said, was “a way for individuals to sort of register their displeasure or make a political statement.”

Even if the war powers measure is defeated, some Republicans say an effort to restrain Trump could reemerge if the conflict drags on or Trump commits ground troops to the conflict. “If we’re talking months, not weeks, then you will see another vote,” said a third House Republican who added that Trump had some “leeway” for now.

Johnson, meanwhile, is channeling any intraparty concerns about Trump’s war into another vote this week on a stalled Homeland Security spending bill — an attempt to keep the focus on Democrats’ opposition to funding for TSA, FEMA and other agencies as a department shutdown approaches the three-week mark.

He is also arguing, as he told reporters after a classified briefing Monday, that the war powers vote is “dangerous” at a moment when U.S. troops were in harm’s way and that Republicans would act to “put it down.” The strikes, Johnson added, did not need advance congressional approval because they were “defensive in nature.”

Those arguments have resonated with most House Republicans, who say they’re willing to give the president time.

“I think so far, the Pentagon seems to have a good plan,” said Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.), a member of the Armed Services Committee who said he would give Trump “six weeks or … eight weeks or whatever we need to accomplish the missions that we set out.”

“The worst thing we could do is go in and then … to pull back or cut short, whatever our objectives are,” he added. “We’re there. We need to get the objectives finished.”

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