Congress

4 ways China-US relations could fracture in 2026

Published

6 months ago

December 26, 2025

The message from Capitol Hill on both sides of the aisle is clear: Get ready for U.S. relations with China to spiral all over again in the new year.

The one-year trade truce brokered in October between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is already looking shaky. And lawmakers are preparing to reup clashes over trade, Taiwan and cyber-intrusions when they return in January.

“It’s like a heavyweight fight, and we’re in that short time period in-between rounds, but both sides need to be preparing for what is next after the truce,” Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), a member of the House Select Committee on China, said in an interview.

Blue Light News talked to more than 25 lawmakers, including those on the House Select Committee on China, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s East Asia subcommittee and the Congressional Executive Commission on China, for their views on the durability of the trade treaty. Both Republicans and Democrats warned of turbulence ahead.

More than 20 of the lawmakers said they doubt Xi will deliver on key pledges the White House said he made in October, including reducing the flow of precursor chemicals to Mexico that cartels process into fentanyl and buying agreed volumes of U.S. agricultural goods.

“China can never be trusted. They’re always looking for an angle,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said.

That pessimism comes despite an easing in U.S.-China tensions since the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. The bruising cycle of tit-for-tat tariffs that briefly hit triple digits earlier this year is currently on pause. Both countries have relaxed export restrictions on essential items (rare earths for the U.S, chip design software for China), while Beijing has committed to “expanding agricultural product trade” in an apparent reference to the suspension of imports of U.S. agricultural products it imposed earlier this year.

This trend may continue, given that Trump is likely to want stability in the U.S.-China relationship ahead of a summit with Xi planned for April in Beijing. “We’re starting to see some movement now on some of their tariff issues and the fentanyl precursor issue,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said.

But a series of issues have been brushed aside in negotiations or left in limbo — a status quo the Trump administration can only maintain for so long. The U.S.-China trade deal on rare earths that Bessent said the two countries would finalize by Thanksgiving remains unsettled. And the White House hasn’t confirmed reporting from earlier this month that Beijing-based ByteDance has finalized the sale of the TikTok social media app ahead of the Jan. 23 deadline for that agreement.

“The idea that we’re in a period of stability with Beijing is simply not accurate,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Shaheen has been sounding the alarm on China’s national security threats since she entered the Senate in 2009. But even some lawmakers who have been more open to engagement with Beijing — such as California Democratic Reps. Ro Khanna and Ami Bera — said that they don’t expect the armistice to last.

The White House is more upbeat about the prospects for U.S.-China trade ties.

“President Trump’s close relationship with President Xi is helping ensure that both countries are able to continue building on progress and continue resolving outstanding issues,” the White House said in a statement, adding that the administration “continues to monitor China’s compliance with our trade agreement.” It declined to comment on the TikTok deal.

Still, the lawmakers Blue Light News spoke with described four issues that could derail U.S.-China ties in the New Year:

A soybean spoiler

U.S. soybean farmers’ reliance on the Chinese market gives Beijing a powerful non-tariff trade weapon — and China doesn’t appear to be following through on promises to renew purchases.

The standoff over soybeans started in May, when China halted those purchases, raising the prospect of financial ruin across farming states including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana — key political constituencies for the GOP in the congressional midterm elections next year.

The White House said last month that Xi committed to buying 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in November and December. But so far, Beijing has only purchased a fraction of that agreed total, NBC reported this month.

“What agitates Trump and causes him to react quickly are things that are more domestic and closer to home,” Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii) said. China’s foot-dragging on soybean purchases “is the most triggering because it’s hurting American farmers and consumers, so that’s where we could see the most volatility in the relationship,” she said.

That trigger could come on Feb. 28 — the new deadline for that 12 million metric ton purchase, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced earlier this month.

The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment on whether Beijing plans to meet this deadline.

The White House said one of the aspects of the trade deal it is monitoring is soybean purchases through this growing season.

The Taiwan tinderbox

Beijing’s threats to invade Taiwan are another near-term potential flashpoint, even though the U.S. hasn’t prioritized the issue in its national security strategy or talks between Xi and Trump.

China has increased its preparations for a Taiwan invasion this year. In October, the Chinese military debuted a new military barge system that addresses some of the challenges of landing on the island’s beaches by deploying a bridge for cargo ships to unload tanks or trucks directly onto the shore.

“China is tightening the noose around the island,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who joined a bipartisan congressional delegation to China in September and returned calling for better communications between the U.S. and Chinese militaries.

Some of the tension around Taiwan is playing out in the wider region, as Beijing pushes to expand its military reach and its influence. Chinese fighter jets locked radar — a prelude to opening fire — on Japanese aircraft earlier this month in the East China Sea.

“There is a real chance that Xi overplays his hand on antagonizing our allies, particularly Australia and Japan,” Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) said. “There is still a line [China] cannot cross without making this truce impossible to sustain.”

The U.S. has a decades-long policy of “strategic ambiguity” under which it refuses to spell out how the U.S. would respond to Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Trump has also adhered to that policy. “You’ll find out if it happens,” Trump said in an interview with 60 Minutes in November.

More export restrictions on the way

Beijing has eased its export restrictions on rare earths — metallic elements essential to both civilian and military applications — but could reimpose those blocks at any time.

Ten of the 25 lawmakers who spoke to Blue Light News said they suspect Beijing will reimpose those export curbs as a convenient pressure point in the coming months.

“At the center of the crack in the truce is China’s ability to levy export restrictions, especially its chokehold on the global supply of rare earths and other critical minerals,” Rep. André Carson (D-Ind.) said.

Others are worried China will choose to expand its export controls to another product category for which it has market dominance — pharmaceuticals. Beijing supplies 80 percent of the U.S. supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients — the foundations of common drugs to treat everything from high blood pressure to type 2 diabetes.

“Overnight, China could turn off the spigot and many basic pharmaceuticals, including things like aspirin, go away from the supply chain in the United States,” Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas) said.

China restarted exports of rare earths earlier this month, and its Commerce Ministry pledged “timely approval” of such exports under a new licensing system, state media reported. Beijing has not indicated its intent to restrict the export of pharmaceuticals or their components as a trade weapon. But the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission urged the Food and Drug Administration to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese sources of pharmaceuticals in its annual report last month.

The Chinese embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Growing Chinese military muscle

China’s drive to develop a world-class military that can challenge traditional U.S. dominion of the Indo-Pacific could also derail relations between Washington and Beijing in 2026.

China’s expanding navy— which, at more than 200 warships, is now the world’s largest — is helping Beijing show off its power across the region.

The centerpiece of that effort in 2025 has been the addition of a third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which entered into service last month. The Fujian is two-thirds the size of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. But like the Ford, it boasts state-of-the-art electromagnetic catapults to launch J-35 and J-15T fighter jets.

The Trump administration sees that as a threat.

The U.S. aims to insulate allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific from possible Chinese “sustained successful military aggression” powered by Beijing’s “historic military buildup,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this month at the Reagan National Defense Forum.

Five lawmakers said they see China’s increasingly aggressive regional military footprint as incompatible with U.S. efforts to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing in the months ahead.

“We know the long-term goal of China is really economic and diplomatic and military domination around the world, and they see the United States as an adversary,” Moran said.

Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.

Congress

Johnson says he will send housing bill to Trump on Monday

Published

14 hours ago

June 28, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

House Speaker Mike Johsnon said he plans to send President Donald Trump a bipartisan housing bill Monday, just days after the president abruptly canceled a signing ceremony for the legislation after Congress failed to pass his elections security act.

Speaking with Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” Johnson said the 21st Century ROAD To Housing Act is a Republican priority for lowering costs for Americans.

“I’m going to send the bill over to him on Monday, and it will become law,” the Louisiana Republican told host Maria Bartiromo. “I certainly want him to take the biggest, boldest marker that he has and do that big Trump signature proudly on that legislation because we’re delivering for the people, and that’s what he wants to do.”

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Johnson’s remarks.

The bill is the product of almost a year of back-and-forth between all four congressional corners and aims to increase affordability by boosting housing supply and home ownership. It passed both chambers of Congress with wide bipartisan support.

Trump was scheduled to sign the bill into law last week but canceled the ceremony “until such time as we pass the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT, which I consider to be a National Emergency.”

Trump’s SAVE America Act would require voters to present a photo ID at the ballot box and effectively end mail-in voting. Trump has also said he would like the bill to include prohibitions on transgender athletes competing. But Republican leaders have repeatedly indicated the legislation does not have enough votes to pass.

Congressional leaders appeared taken aback by Trump’s signing cancellation, but Johnson on Sunday said he and the president have since met in the Oval Office to discuss the housing bill “in great detail.”

“We made a lot of promises to the voters, and we’re fulfilling those every single day of this Congress,” Johnson said. “This is a big part of that because this will increase the availability, the access to more housing, bring down cost, cut regulations, do the things we know are very important for that market. The president and I talked about that at length. Of course he wants to do those things.”

But if Trump does not sign the housing bill into law within the next few days, it would still become law unless he were to veto it. Congress also has the power to override a presidential veto.

Congress

Sen. Thom Tillis rails against Trump’s fixation on voting legislation

Published

15 hours ago

June 28, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Sen. Thom Tillis on Sunday expressed frustration with President Donald Trump’s continued fixation on passing the SAVE America Act.

In an interview with BLN’s “Face the Nation,” the retiring North Carolina Republican lamented “the impossible task” of implementing the requirements of the legislation ahead of November’s crucial midterms.

“Why are we doing more things to undermine our confidence in elections, rather than getting the strong message out that will win for Republicans this year?” Tillis said.

Rather than promoting the bill — which would require voters to present a photo ID at the ballot box and effectively end widespread mail-in voting — Tillis said Republicans should tell voters about “the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America” while accepting the current voting laws.

“Win by the good results that Republicans have produced and stop undermining the confidence in the elections,” said Tillis. “This is a bedrock of our 250-year history of success as the democracy that changed the world. Let’s not mess with that between now and November.”

Trump has said the SAVE America Act is his “No. 1 priority” ahead of midterms, going so far as to abruptly cancel a bill signing for major bipartisan legislation on housing affordability until Congress passes his elections bill. But many Democrats are staunchly against the bill, arguing it could disenfranchise millions of voters, and Republican leaders in Congress have repeatedly indicated it does not have the votes to pass.

Tillis co-sponsored the original SAVE America Act but has objected to Trump’s version of the legislation, which would also bar transgender athletes from women’s sports.

It’s not the first time Tillis has clashed with Trump.

Earlier this year, Tillis blocked Trump’s Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, until the Justice Department dropped an investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He has also spoken out against the Justice Department’s $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund,” calling it a “payout for punks.” And he has emerged as a fierce critic of Bill Pulte, Trump’s interim director of national intelligence.

“Let’s try and figure out a way to completely and finally end these distractions so that we can focus on the damage Democrats could do if they take the House, if they beat incumbent Republicans in the Senate. That’s what Republicans need to be talking about between now and November,” Tillis said Sunday.

Congress

Sen. Bill Cassidy on Trump: ‘Sometimes he acts as if Congress is merely an appendage’

Published

16 hours ago

June 28, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Sen. Bill Cassidy appeared to question President Donald Trump’s view of Congress, saying in an interview that he is not sure Trump grasps that Congress “is a separate body, separate from the presidency.”

“Sometimes he acts as if Congress is merely an appendage, and, frankly, sometimes Congress acts like it’s an appendage,” the Louisiana Republican said in a pre-taped interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation” that aired Sunday.

The latest criticism in a public clash between the two leaders, Cassidy also told host Margaret Brennan that he would be focused on affordability, including the cost of health care and groceries, if he were president.

“If I were president, I would be focused on those people that they have, my people, our people, us at the kitchen table. How do you make their life better? And that’s what I think the president should be focused on,” Cassidy said.

The relationship between Cassidy and Trump has been rocky for some time. Cassidy was one of only a handful of Republican leaders who voted to convict Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.

Trump and Cassidy recently clashed in a closed-door meeting between GOP leaders, with Cassidy admitting he raised his voice to “match” the president’s.

“The president said something negative about me. I received it as attempting to bully me from asking a question that I think the American people need to know, and I’m not going to be bullied,” Cassidy said at the time.

However, after receiving a special briefing from Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff, Cassidy changed his vote on a resolution designed to rein in Trump’s power to wage war against Iran.

“They said right now the negotiations are delicate, and they could collapse if they’re not nursed along in the appropriate way. I can accept that,” Cassidy said.

“That’s the reason they said for their kind of lack of being forthcoming. I can accept that, but my goal was to be briefed, to have the truth in order to make a decision for the benefit of my country, and that was satisfied.”

Still, Cassidy’s stance against Trump has cost him: After serving more than a decade in the Senate, Cassidy lost his campaign for renomination after Trump endorsed against him. Rep. Julia Letlow will be the Louisiana Republican Senate candidate this fall.