Congress
Clock resets on Obamacare talks as Congress fails to act on subsidies
Hopes for a quick patch saving millions of Americans from sharply higher health insurance premiums have given way to expectations of a long slog on Capitol Hill.
It is now all but certain that enhanced Obamacare subsidies first implemented by Democrats as a Covid relief measure will expire Dec. 31 after the Senate voted down competing partisan health plans Thursday and House GOP leaders indicated they had no plans to bring an extension up for a vote this year.
Less certain is when lawmakers might begin to pick up the pieces — or if they have any hope of finding a solution. A bipartisan group of lawmakers continues to talk about a possible 11th-hour path forward, hoping that the failed votes this week can give them some badly needed momentum. But most of their colleagues are convinced the discussions won’t bear fruit until 2026.
A major obstacle is that leaders in both parties are, at least so far, prioritizing plans that don’t bridge existing political gaps. Top Republicans are putting forward proposals that would not extend the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, while Democrats are sticking to proposals that most in the GOP say they cannot accept.
“We don’t have a lot of time,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican who voted for both parties’ proposals Thursday. She said she was “talking to people of good will and good faith about how we might be able to sketch” out a compromise.
But Murkowski also said in a subsequent statement that Congress needs to reach an agreement by Jan. 15 — a concession talks are likely to slip into next year.
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who has been involved in loose bipartisan health care discussions for months, said he hoped the failed votes would lead negotiators to “bridge the impasses.” But asked if there was any way to prevent the subsidies from lapsing, he said, “I honestly don’t know.”
The stakes for American families are considerable. Independent analysts say those who purchase insurance directly from the ACA exchanges could see their premiums spike by an average of about $1,000 a year. For some, it could be considerably more. The political stakes are also vast, with many moderate Republicans fretting that a lapse would threaten their reelection campaigns and endanger the GOP’s congressional majorities.
That sense of panic has not trickled up to Republican leaders, who appear ready to send lawmakers home next week until Jan. 6. By that time, the enhanced subsidies will have lapsed — returning the tax credits to prepandemic levels that assist a much narrower swath of Americans. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated millions of Americans will go without insurance as people drop their plans to avoid having to pay higher premiums.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune left the door open Thursday to an 11th-hour deal but also acknowledged the obvious: They don’t have a lot of time.
“We’ll see where the discussions go,” Thune told reporters after the failed votes. “I think we’ll get a sense for that here pretty soon.”
Speaker Mike Johnson, meanwhile, is plowing forward with a plan to hold a vote next week on a House GOP-authored health care framework that, according to three people granted anonymity to describe internal discussions, will not include a subsidy extension. Instead it is likely to mirror aspects of the Senate proposal that mostly united Republicans Thursday but failed to leapfrog the chamber’s 60-vote legislative threshold.
Yet to weigh in is President Donald Trump. While he voiced support this week for giving federal money “to people,” not insurance companies, he also has avoided taking a firm stance for or against an extension of the subsidies.
The White House appears to be tacitly on board with Johnson’s decision not to pursue an extension, with administration officials believing that path unifies the GOP.
“The idea is to put together a package before Christmas that has unity with 218 Republican votes in the House,” said a person familiar with health care discussions on Blue Light News and in the White House who was granted anonymity to discuss them.
“The biggest threat these days is the discharge petition,” the person said, adding that the only way to avoid it is to “put together a consensus plan” among House Republicans.
It was a reference to ongoing bipartisan effort to circumvent leadership and force floor votes on legislation that would temporarily extend the expiring Obamacare subsidies while imposing new eligibility requirements. Two such petitions have been filed and received Republican sign-ons in recent days.
Neither petition has yet to garner the sweeping support from Democrats needed to succeed, however. Instead, Democratic leaders are pushing to discharge a bill that would simply extend the current subsidy framework for three years — to the doorstep of the next presidential election.
“Every single House Democrat is supportive of a straightforward extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters Thursday. “All we need are four Republicans to join us.”
With nothing likely to make it to Trump’s desk by the end of the year, lawmakers are increasingly turning their attention to January. Many view the Jan. 30 government shutdown deadline as the real cutoff for a bipartisan health care deal.
Some conservative Republicans are pushing their party to simply pursue a partisan health care bill under the budget reconciliation process, which can skirt the Senate’s 60-vote supermajority requirement. They argue that Democrats are not actually interested in compromising and instead want to run their midterm campaigns on the expired subsidies.
“I know there are some on my side who say 60-vote bills stand the test of time, yadda yadda yadda,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. “There are not going to be 60 votes. The Democrats think this is a great political issue for them.”
But others are talking about paths to compromise, even as bipartisan negotiations have struggled to gain traction over months of attempts before, during and after the 43-day government shutdown where Democrats made extending the subsidies the centerpiece of their demands.
One idea already floating around the Senate Thursday was to merge the GOP plan, which expands health savings accounts, with an extension of the subsidies accompanied by the kinds of restrictions contemplated in the House bills subject to discharge petitions. Thune said he is being kept in the loop on the bipartisan and bicameral conversations about how to quickly come up with a deal before the holidays.
Few, however, thought that approach could come together that quickly.
“It would be great if we could get it done next week, but realistically I think we’ve got to look at it as next week but also January,” said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.).
Among Republicans, the pressure posed by the subsidy cliff is rivaled by the anxiety they are feeling about the approaching midterms. GOP lawmakers in both chambers are warning that they are handing Democrats’ a political cudgel to use against them next year if the tax credits expire.
Democrats will pick “sympathetic cases” to use against Republicans, retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) predicted, “and there will be plenty of them.” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) added that if Republicans are not concerned about the midterm implications, “then you’re living in a cave.”
But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned it might already be too late.
“The toothpaste is out of the tube,” he said Thursday. “Once Jan. 1 comes and everyone is locked into their insurance proposals, you can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube.”
Megan Messerly and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.
Congress
GOP hard-liners threaten to tank FISA vote
House GOP hardliners are threatening to tank the FISA rule shortly on the House floor as Speaker Mike Johnson tries to force through a five year extension, according to four people granted anonymity to speak about plans not yet public.
They’re livid over the “inexplicable 5 year extension, the fake warrant requirement, and the walk back of the promise from this afternoon to include CBDC,” according to one of the people, referring negotiations to prohibit a central bank digital currency.
Congress
‘The original sin:’ Hill Republicans blame White House for slow-walking FISA sales pitch
A messy GOP battle over a key government spy authority boiled over in the House this week — but the crisis was months in the making.
White House officials and Republican Hill leaders have tried to pressure GOP hard-liners into approving a clean, 18-month extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that President Donald Trump demanded. But amid a GOP rebellion on Capitol Hill, Speaker Mike Johnson Thursday afternoon punted a vote on the measure for the second day in a row.
The program expires Monday night. Senators went home for the weekend as Johnson continued to pursue a compromise with the holdouts for an extension as long as three years with reforms, and raced to hold a vote.
Now, the finger-pointing among Republicans is rampant and temperatures are running high.
A band of House ultraconservatives — who have long been concerned that warrantless government surveillance of foreign individuals could sweep up data on Americans — shot down Trump and GOP leaders’ long-held plans for the 18-month extension with no reforms earlier this week.
“A clean extension ain’t going to move on the floor,” Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, one of the head House GOP holdouts, warned earlier this week.
In interviews with more than two dozen Republican lawmakers and aides on Capitol Hill involved in the talks, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely about the contentious policy debate, the consensus is that the White House is largely responsible for the current breakdown as GOP factions snipe and assign blame.
“This is why we shouldn’t wait until the last minute on these things,” one House Republican fumed Thursday. A congressional GOP aide added, “The White House was too late to come to a decision. That was the original sin.”
A senior White House official disputed the characterization from some Hill Republicans that the administration had taken too long to plead their case. They pointed to a briefing in the Situation Room months ago with Republican lawmakers, during which “the president heard arguments on both sides of the issue.”
The official added, “We’ve had multiple briefings from senior officials, both on the House and Senate side, about the desirability of this program. Again, going back months ago.”
Trump told House Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) that he wanted a clean extension, without reforms, in February. The president arrived at this position, a second White House official said, after “the administration completed a policy process through the interagency and advised POTUS that a clean extension was the best course and solicited views on length from Blue Light News.”
There was also coordination between the White House and Capitol Hill, according to three people familiar and the senior White House official: Johnson requested the reauthorization run for 18 months, and Trump agreed.
The administration succeeded in convincing Jordan, who had previously pushed for changes to Section 702, to publicly support a clean extension following a White House meeting on the subject.
But ultraconservatives on Capitol Hill were harder to convince, with some House Republicans correctly predicting two months ago they were going to have issues as the vote drew nearer. Trump has forced those hard-liners to cave in recent months on other fights, but the spy powers legislation was one area where members have not been as willing to relent.
While Trump officials made outreach to members at least two months ago, Hill engagement ramped up in the days leading up to the scheduled vote. That has included appeals to lawmakers from CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Deputy CIA Director Michael Ellis and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, according to five people. Ellis has made personal phone calls to members, according to two people familiar with the pressure campaign.
White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, White House Legislative Affairs chief James Braid and other legislative affairs officials have also been calling individual House Republicans and working through negotiation details, according to six other people with direct knowledge of the conversations.
Noticeably absent from this outreach is Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Her office plays a statutory role in overseeing Section 702 and has historically been a key proponent of the powerful spy powers.
Gabbard in early February expressed concerns to Trump about reauthorizing the statute without additional privacy guardrails, as Blue Light News reported earlier Thursday, though her appeal appears to have been unsuccessful.
And while the administration’s position on Section 702 came into focus in February, there were signs earlier in the month that its position had not fully crystallized. Officials meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee at that time refused to divulge the White House’s stance on extending the surveillance power and adding reforms, according to five people with knowledge of the meeting. The exchange frustrated Republicans and Democrats on the panel, who are generally supportive of the surveillance program.
Due to a quirk in the law, the administration will still be able to operate the program for nearly a year even if it is not renewed, and privacy advocates have argued that Monday is a false deadline. But without the law on the books, communications providers like Google and AT&T, which the government tasks to surveil foreign messages, could stop complying with those orders.
But White House officials want an extension codified now, all the same. They have been arguing in conversations with lawmakers that the country is at war and national security is paramount amid threats from Iran. Therefore, they say, hardliners should fall in line to back the clean extension without delay, according to five people involved in the conversations.
“The program is critical for the United States military to listen to the conversations of foreign terrorists abroad while we are engaged in a military operation in Iran. That’s what we’ve been telling individuals, as well as the elevated threat levels around the world, as well as the threat from Mexican drug cartels,” the senior White House official said.
Two groups of House GOP hard-liners, after being summoned by Trump Tuesday night, met with officials at the White House. But some of the Republicans declined the invitation.“I’ve heard everything that the executive has to say on FISA,” Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said in an interview that evening. That meeting, however, marked a shift: Those House Republicans who went to the White House alongside GOP leaders — among them Roy and Reps. Keith Self of Texas, Byron Donalds of Florida, Clay Higgins of Louisiana, Morgan Griffith of Virginia and Warren Davidson of Ohio — took the opportunity to begin negotiations about a framework for a possible agreement around the use of warrants to access certain information.
The discussions included how the White House and GOP leadership needed to make good on a months-old promise to advance legislation that would ban a central bank digital currency. Enough House GOP holdouts late Thursday evening were threatening to still tank the procedural vote to advance the extension if the White House didn’t address the digital currency matter, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter. “Unless it’s included, there’s enough votes to kill the rule,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said in an interview Thursday afternoon. But other Republicans, White House officials and Senate GOP leadership are warning that attaching the measure directly would tank the FISA bill.
In exchange for making these concessions, GOP leaders and the White House have been pushing for a Section 702 extension that’s longer than 18 months and closer to three years.
The senior White House official also said Thursday the administration has “focused in on potentially having conversations about reforms to the program that we think would strengthen protections for American civil liberties … those conversations are ongoing.”
Jordan, meanwhile, has been helping build support for a clean extension by privately telling some Republicans that, if they can pass this 18-month clean extension now, they could potentially work on warrant reforms later, according to three people with direct knowledge of the discussions. That’s raised some eyebrows internally among House Republicans.
The House delays are leaving barely any time for the Senate to act. Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview Thursday that he’s already started having conversations with his own members about what they would need to clear a FISA extension Monday.
Ultimately, even if GOP leaders strike a deal on changes to the current proposed extension, it could risk support for reauthorization among key Democrats, who Republicans will need to pass the final legislation in a narrowly-divided House. While some House Democrats are expected to help Republicans get the final bill across the finish line — including top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut — Democratic leaders have so far declined to shore up the votes for any fast-tracked process.
“I am deeply skeptical of a straightforward extension,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Thursday, adding he told Johnson a few days ago there was “great Democratic skepticism” on a clean extension.
One Democratic Hill aide said Johnson and Trump did far too little to coordinate their pitch with Democrats, who carried a razor-thin vote to re-up the law in 2024.
“They never came to us,” the aide said.
Congress
GOP, Democrats blast Vought for holding back cash: ‘You don’t have the authority to impound’
Senators from both parties chided the Trump administration Thursday for continuing to withhold funding Congress has approved, more than a year after the White House first froze billions of dollars for temporary “review.”
During White House budget director Russ Vought’s testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) scolded the OMB chief for not sending hundreds of millions of dollars the Trump administration is supposed to give states throughout the year to support community services aimed at reducing poverty.
“Congress has appropriated money, and you don’t have the authority to impound it,” Grassley said about the more than $810 million Congress appropriated this year for the Community Services Block Grant program.
That program helps states fund anti-poverty services such as transportation, education and nutrition assistance that serve more than 9 million people each year.
Grassley told Vought that lawmakers “are not getting any answers” as to why the Trump administration hasn’t sent states their quarterly funding from the program. “I want those quarterly allotments released,” Grassley said.
While Vought did not directly address Grassley’s comments, he said at a different point during the hearing that “we have not impounded a single thing.”
Other senators, including Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), lamented federal dollars being withheld for the fund that provides capital to small banks and credit unions in underserved areas. For months lawmakers from both parties have pushed back against Trump’s plans to eliminate that program, the Treasury Department’s Community Development Financial Institutions Fund.
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