Congress
Congress waits on Trump as December health sprint begins
Congress returns to session Monday and kicks off a December sprint to address expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies and prevent health insurance premium hikes for millions of Americans.
Members of both parties acknowledge success hangs on one question: Will President Donald Trump ever figure out what he wants?
Since lawmakers left town 10 days ago, the picture has only grown foggier. Early in their holiday break, Trump appeared to be on the precipice of announcing a framework to temporarily extend the Obamacare subsidies with new eligibility restrictions, only to pull back after a mountain of internal GOP criticism.
In his only comments on the matter, Trump injected more uncertainty last week, saying he doesn’t want to extend the subsidies but understands it might be necessary.
The mixed signals have left the various factions on Capitol Hill trying to figure out where Trump will ultimately come down — and how to entice the president to back their side in a thorny policy fight that could have major political consequences in next year’s midterm elections.
“The president has got to sign whatever we do, otherwise it’s a legislative exercise,” said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who is drafting what he describes as a bipartisan proposal that would largely align with the leaked White House framework.
But Fitzpatrick and other lawmakers are quickly running out of time to pin Trump down. The Senate will vote next week, as soon as Dec. 9, on a health care proposal. It’s unclear what will be in the bill, but it’s the fulfillment of a promise Majority Leader John Thune made to Democrats as part of a deal to end the 43-day government shutdown.
“The question is, how quickly can something come together?” Thune said before leaving Washington for Thanksgiving.
Or as Fitzpatrick put it, “Time is not our friend.”
Fitzpatrick and other centrists are looking to build bipartisan support for an extension of the subsidies, a priority for Democrats, with new income restrictions and other safeguards, which are a priority for Republicans. Their efforts have loose backing from the Republican Main Street Caucus, whose chair, Rep. Mike Flood of Nebraska, quickly endorsed the contours of the leaked White House framework last week.
But others in the GOP want to pursue a more radical overhaul of Obamacare, with Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rick Scott of Florida pitching the president on plans centered around individual spending accounts. Scott even termed his vision as “Trump Health Freedom Accounts.”
Trump has kept Congress in limbo as lawmakers try to figure out what he will support. Republicans spent much of November thinking the president was turning away from extending the tax credits, only to be blindsided by news that the White House framework would do just that.
Most House and Senate Republicans, including senior members of leadership, learned details of the tentative White House proposal — and how quickly it could be rolled out — from media reports, including POLITICO’s. Their objections prompted the White House to scuttle the rollout.
A House Republican granted anonymity to discuss internal conference thinking acknowledged that it would have been “wiser” if the Trump administration had consulted directly with Hill GOP leaders before word of the framework leaked out.
The GOP lawmaker added that Trump “cannot please everyone” with any health plan.
“Most took it as a good sign that the [White House] initially accepted a modified extension,” the lawmaker said. “Yes, a subset complained but I think they’re in the minority.”
Getting an extension of the subsidies through the House and Senate, not to mention Trump, will require navigating a political obstacle course.
For one, the framework was silent on new abortion restrictions, which are a key demand for many Republicans and a deal-break for many Democrats.
“We’re not going to allow public funds to be used for funding abortion,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told reporters before Thanksgiving.
While much of the GOP backlash to Trump’s unreleased framework was about how lawmakers found out about it, there’s a significant swath of Republicans who will simply never vote to extend anything related to Obamacare, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics.
In addition to the Scott and Cassidy plans, a coalition of House and Senate Republicans that includes key committee chairs are working behind the scenes on a range of possible health care proposals, but there’s no guarantee the GOP will fall in line behind the plans or whether the lawmakers will even produce a bill this year.
As a fail-safe, House GOP centrists are preparing to launch a discharge petition to force a floor vote on a subsidy extension. But they are also trying to give space to the Senate to see if a bipartisan deal can be reached, according to two Republicans granted anonymity to discuss the talks.
Some lawmakers are already looking at Jan. 30, the next government funding deadline, as the real cutoff for a health care deal, even though the credits would have expired by then. And some hard-liners want GOP leaders to embrace a party-line approach amid widespread skepticism among their colleagues that’s even doable.
Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), whose committee shares oversight of the ACA, said he is “working to try to find a pathway to get some bipartisan solution” — not a partisan, filibuster-skirting bill Republicans could pursue under the budget reconciliation process.
“There are a lot of things going on,” he said. Crapo added that even if the promised Senate vote fails, “We will need to be continuing to work … with our colleagues on both sides of the aisle to try to find some broader health care solutions.”
Democrats were initially buoyed by news that Trump was preparing to endorse an extension of the subsidies, despite the eligibility restrictions, believing that it was a good sign that he was even thinking about it. But that optimism faded after witnessing the Republican backlash.
They have their own internal divisions over what their own strategy should be as the clock ticks. Senate Democrats, as part of the agreement with Thune, will get to decide what proposal they vote on. But they haven’t yet come to consensus and are expected to use a Tuesday caucus lunch to discuss their options.
A group of Democrats, including Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Rep. Tom Suozzi of New York, has been in close contact with Republican lawmakers including Fitzpatrick and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska about what could get bipartisan support. But others, such as independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, want Democrats to instead embrace a sweeping health care plan that would have no chance of winning GOP votes but would give them a rallying point heading into the midterm elections.
That divide has haunted congressional Democrats since January as they’ve repeatedly struggled to unify at key moments. There’s also widespread skepticism that Republicans will ever agree to any health care plan that isn’t fully endorsed by Trump.
“That’s the trouble today: You can have good-faith negotiations with Republicans, but it just doesn’t matter until Donald Trump weighs in,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “The pollsters have obviously told them that they are going to get their clocks cleaned if they don’t fix the health care mess they created. They may hate the ACA and Barack Obama so much they are willing to lose an election.”
Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.
Congress
Thune says abortion language a sticking point in health care talks
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday that while bipartisan discussions are ongoing around the fate of soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies, abortion restrictions are a major sticking point.
“There are conversations that continue, but as you know the Hyde issue is a difficult and challenging one on both sides,” Thune told reporters.
The fight over the so-called Hyde Amendment, which bars federal funding for abortion, has been looming over any potential deal to extend the enhanced Obamacare tax credits. And GOP lawmakers, not to mention a cadre of influential anti-abortion groups, quickly noticed the White House’s framework was silent on the issue.
The White House ultimately held off on releasing that framework as it faced a mountain of GOP criticism from conservatives who felt caught off guard that Trump would back a two-year extension of the subsidies — even when paired with new income caps and other restrictions.
The Senate is expected to vote next week on a proposal from Democrats to extend the ACA subsidies, but Democrats haven’t yet detailed what bill they will put on the chamber floor.
Republicans are separately working on a potential counterproposal that would come from Sens. Mike Crapo and Bill Cassidy, chairs of the Senate Finance and HELP Committees, respectively. GOP senators also have yet to decide whether they’ll roll out that plan in time for a vote next week, though, and the substance remains in flux.
Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said Monday night that while efforts to reach a bipartisan agreement persist, many lawmakers believe they are ultimately headed toward a failed vote next week. Some senators are already looking at Jan. 30, the next government funding deadline, as the real cut-off for a health care deal.
“I don’t think we’re close to a 60-vote threshold yet,” Thune said of bipartisan health care talks.
There’s also uncertainty on the other side of the Capitol about how Republicans will respond to the looming expiration of the subsidies, which could cause premiums to skyrocket in the new year. Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters at his weekly press conference that he “didn’t commit to” a short-term extension during a closed-door House GOP members’ meeting Tuesday morning but that “there will be a Republican response to this.”
“What I’ve got to do is build consensus deliberately around the best ideas,” Johnson said. “We’re pulling those ideas together … I can’t project in advance what that will be because I don’t know what the consensus is in that room.”
Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
Congress
Stefanik accuses Johnson of lying, ‘blocking’ her defense bill provision
Rep. Elise Stefanik is taking aim directly at Speaker Mike Johnson over signals a provision she has championed won’t be included in the annual defense policy bill the House wants to pass next week — marking a notable and unusual split inside the House GOP leadership team.
Stefanik, a New York Republican who serves as a member of Johnson’s leadership team, said in a social media post Tuesday morning she would help tank the National Defense Authorization Act if it doesn’t incorporate her provision that would require the FBI to notify Congress when it opens investigations into candidates running for federal office.
“This is an easy one,” the New York Republican posted on social media Tuesday morning. “This bill is DOA unless this provision gets added in as it was passed out of committee.”
Stefanik also blamed Johnson for the expected omission.
“[T]he Speaker is blocking my provision to root out the illegal weaponization that led to Crossfire Hurricane, Arctic Frost, and more,” she wrote on X. “He is siding with Jamie Raskin against Trump Republicans to block this provision to protect the deep state.”
Stefanik’s proposal, which would require the public disclosure of all “FBI counterintelligence investigations into presidential and federal candidates seeking office,” is designed to combat what many Republicans consider politically motivated investigations related to Russian interference in the 2016 election and former special counsel Jack Smith’s probe into President Donald Trump’s efforts to subvert the election in 2020.
Asked about whether he thwarted the provision’s inclusion in the NDAA, Johnson said Stefanik’s retelling of events is “false.” He said he supported the provision and that there could still be a path for its passage in some other legislative vehicle.
“I don’t exactly know why Elise just won’t call me,” he said, recalling that he told his colleague over text, “What are you talking about? This hasn’t even made it to my level.”
Johnson explained the bipartisan leaders of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees, who he suspected have jurisdiction over this issue, had not agreed to include the language, leading to the provision being dropped from the defense bill. A spokesperson for Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary panel, deferred to Johnson’s explanation.
Stefanik quickly responded in another post on X, “Just more lies from the Speaker,” while insisting the Intelligence Committee, on which Stefanik sits, has jurisdiction over her provision.
Leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have been negotiating the NDAA for weeks and could roll out a compromise package as soon as Thursday; Stefanik said in her social media post that she got early details of that package in an Intelligence Committee briefing.
The narrow GOP majority in the House means that Johnson can barely afford to lose any Republican support if Democrats reject the legislation en masse, but it’s far from guaranteed Stefanik’s opposition will doom the NDAA on its own.
While most Democrats opposed the hard-right version of the Pentagon bill the House passed in September, more Democrats might come on board to support a compromise measure and make up for a shortfall of votes on the Republican side of the aisle. The NDAA is typically a broadly bipartisan package.
Connor O’Brien contributed to this report.
Congress
House Republicans sweat Tennessee election, despite Hudson’s assurances
House GOP leaders are trying to steady their restive conference as they seek to avert disaster in a Tennessee special election for a ruby-red GOP-controlled seat on Tuesday night.
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson told House Republicans in their closed-door meeting Tuesday morning that Republican Matt Van Epps will win the race. But he also said members need to remember special elections are special, according to four people in the room, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss the private meeting.
National Republicans have had to intervene to attempt to rescue Van Epps from a potential defeat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, a conservative stronghold President Donald Trump won by more than 20 points.
The race between Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn has attracted millions in outside spending from both sides, despite the typically uncompetitive nature of the district.
Republicans in the room for Hudson’s remarks Tuesday morning, however, did not feel much better about the state of the conference and the special election ahead of next year’s midterms.
“It was not overly comforting,” one House Republican who attended the meeting said, noting that some GOP members quietly glanced over at each other as the North Carolina congressman argued a win is a win.
Another House Republican predicted the GOP conference would spend some time reeling from the fallout of the race, given that it shouldn’t have been competitive in the first place.
“If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged,” one senior House Republican said. A loss would be catastrophic and the conference would “explode,” the Republican added.
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