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The Dictatorship

Our national debt and spending are up despite DOGE and other federal cuts. Here’s why.

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Our national debt and spending are up despite DOGE and other federal cuts. Here’s why.

There are two fundamental fiscal truths: America has a debt problem, and dealing with the debt will not be easy.

So far, our leaders are not coming to terms with the facts.

The numbers speak for themselves. In the fiscal year that just ended on Sept. 30 — the last date for which the federal government was funded — the deficit was largely unchanged from its fiscal 2024 level: $1.8 trillion. In other words, despite the Trump administration’s focus on cost cutting in the federal government and all the additional revenue coming from tariffsthe deficit is still as large as it was a year ago.

All told, federal spending from January 2025 to September 2025 is up about 2% from the same period in 2024.

All told, federal spending from January 2025 to September 2025 is up about 2% from the same period in 2024. You might wonder how that is possible, given that the government (when it was funded) has operated under the same discretionary spending levels as last year, as well as high-profile Trump administration activities such as the Department of Government Efficiency effort, downsizing of the federal workforce, the abolition of the U.S. Agency for International Development and the forthcoming closure of the Department of Education. Two words: mandatory spending.

The largest mandatory spending programs are Social Security and Medicare. Others include things such as Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act subsidies, safety-net programs such as SNAP and Supplemental Security Income, and various other programs such as student loans and some veterans’ benefits. These programs don’t require regular review by Congress, and they grow automatically for a variety of reasons, such as higher enrollment or higher costs.

A closer look at the numbers is revealing. Since January, the federal government has spent $5.2 trillion — about $100 billion more than it spent from January through September of 2024. Spending on Social Security — the largest federal program — grew by $96 billion; Medicare spending grew by $58 billion; and spending on other federal health programs, including Medicaid, grew by a combined $46 billion. Discretionary spending, which Congress decides on annually through the appropriations process, grew as well, largely due to increases in defense ($19 billion) and the discretionary portion of veterans’ benefits ($27 billion). And do not forget about interest on the national debt, which grew by $63 billion.

Offsetting about two-thirds of the total increase in spending was a combination of one-time savings for student loan programs enacted by the One Big Beautiful Bill reconciliation law and decreases in spending on international affairs ($22 billion), among other relatively small changes.

For all the recent talk of policymakers’ interest in curtailing spending, the glaring issue when it comes to actual action has been the two behemoths of the budget: Social Security and Medicare.

To get borrowing under control, we’ll need to cut spending, increase revenue or some combination of the two (ideally along with economic growth). The reconciliation law put in place significant spending cuts, largely achieved through smart savings such as cracking down on abusive financing practices that states use to exploit Medicaid’s formula for matching funds. But those cuts were more than drowned out by massive tax cuts — only a small portion of which were financed — as well as increases in spending for defense and border security. That mismatch will increase interest costs as well. As a result, that law will cut total spending through 2034 only by about $400 billion — compared to $86 trillion in spending during the same period.

For all the recent talk of policymakers’ interest in curtailing spending, the glaring issue when it comes to actual action has been the two behemoths of the budget: Social Security and Medicare. Without touching either of these programs, there really isn’t much space to make significant improvements in our country’s fiscal situation. Worse, both programs have trust funds that are on a path toward insolvency. Social Security’s retirement trust fund and Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund will run out of reserves in just seven years. At that point, the programs will be slashed — Social Security benefits by 24% and Medicare by 12% — as they are unable to cover what has been promised. Not making spending changes cements these across-the-board cuts.

Americans should be concerned with the dismal state of our fiscal situation. It will take tough choices and trade-offs to slow the growth in spending or otherwise raise revenue to the point that our national borrowing is sustainable. Ideally, our leaders would do that before it is too late.

Maya MacGuineas

Maya MacGuineas is president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

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The Dictatorship

Allies seek to shield themselves from President Donald Trump’s tariffs

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Allies seek to shield themselves from President Donald Trump’s tariffs

WASHINGTON (AP) — Bullied and buffeted by President Donald Trump’s tariffs for the past year, America’s longstanding allies are desperately seeking ways to shield themselves from the president’s impulsive wrath.

U.S. trade partners are cutting deals among themselves —- sometimes discarding old differences to do so — in a push to diversify their economies away from a newly protectionist United States. Some European governments and institutions are reducing their use of U.S. digital services such as Zoom and Teams.

Central banks and global investors are dumping dollars and buying gold. Together, their actions could diminish U.S. influence and mean higher interest rates and prices for Americans already angry about the high cost of living.

Last summer and fall, Trump used the threat of punishing taxes on imports to strong-arm the European Union, Japan, South Korea and other trading partners into accepting lopsided trade deals and promising to make massive investments in the United States.

But a deal with Trump, they’ve discovered, is no deal at all.

The mercurial president repeatedly finds reasons to conjure new tariffs to impose on trading partners that thought they had already made enough concessions to satisfy him.

Just months after reaching his agreement with the EU, Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries for opposing his attempts to seize control of Greenland from Denmark – though he quickly backed down. And last month, he said he’d slap 100% tariffs on Canada for breaking with the United States by agreeing to reduce Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

“Our trading partners are discovering that the largely one-sided deals they concluded with the U.S. provide little protection,’’ said former U.S. trade negotiator Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “As a result, trade diversification efforts by our partners are on turbo charge, looking to reduce dependence on the U.S.’’

Trump supporters such as Paul Winfree, who was deputy director of the White House Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first term, are wary of the relative decline in U.S. Treasury note holdings by foreign central banks and view the national debt as a vulnerability rivals would like to exploit.

Winfree, CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Institute, a think tank, said that some of Trump’s advisers do not feel America has fully benefited from the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency.

“But the fact remains that every other country is jealous of our status, and many of our adversaries would love to challenge the U.S. dollar and Treasuries,” he said.

White House spokesman Kush Desai insists America’s standing on the global stage has not been diminished.

“President Trump remains committed to the strength and power of the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency,” he said.

India and the EU clinch a long-awaited deal

The most eye-opening deal so far has been the pact announced last week between the 27-country EU and India, the world’s fastest growing major economy. Negotiators had been at it for nearly two decades before they closed the agreement.

Likewise, an EU trade deal announced two weeks ago with the Mercosur nations of South America took a quarter century of negotiation. It will create a free-trade market of more than 700 million people.

“Some of these deals have been in the works for quite some time,’’ said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. “The pressure from Trump made them more eager to accelerate the process and reach agreement.’’

EU exporters were jubilant over the India deal. VDMA, a group of European machinery and plant engineering companies, welcomed lower Indian tariffs on machinery.

“The free trade agreement between India and the EU brings much needed oxygen to a world increasingly dominated by trade conflicts,” VDMA’s executive director, Thilo Brodtmann, said in a statement. “With this agreement, Europe is sending a clear signal in favor of rules-based trade and against the law of the jungle.”

‘We have all the cards’

On Monday, Trump went on social media to announce his own deal with India. The U.S., he posted, would reduce tariffs on Indian imports after India agreed to stop buying oil from Russia, which has used the sales to fund its four year war in Ukraine.

The president said that India would reduce its tariffs on American products to zero and buy $500 billion worth of American products. Trade lawyer Ryan Majerus, a partner at the King & Spalding and a trade official in the Biden administration and during Trump’s first term, said that businesses and legal analysts were awaiting official White House documents spelling out details of the deal.

Trump is banking on there being limits to other countries’ ability to pull away from the United States. America has the world’s biggest economy and consumer market. “We have all the cards,’’ Trump told Fox Business this month.

Countries like South Korea, dependent on America’s market and military protection, can’t afford to ignore Trump’s threats. On Monday, for example, the president said he was increasing tariffs on South Korea goods because the country’s legislature has been slow to approve the trade framework announced last year. On Tuesday, the country’s Finance Ministry responded by saying its chief, Koo Yun-cheol, would push lawmakers to quickly approve a bill to invest $350 billion as promised in the agreement.

“The U.S was trying to identify a counterpart that would find it difficult to refuse U.S. demands outright, given the depth of its economic and security ties,” said Cha Du Hyeogn, an analyst at South Korea’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

Or consider Canada, which sends 75% of its exports to its southern neighbor. “Canada and U.S. will always be tightly linked through international trade,” said Obstfeld, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “We’re talking about adjustments more or less on the margin.’’

But the world’s growing rejection of Trump’s policies is already having an impact, driving down the value of the dollar, long the currency of choice for global commerce, to its lowest level since 2022 last week versus several competing currencies.

Syracuse University political scientist Daniel McDowell, author of the book “Bucking the Buck: U.S. Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar,” sees a vibe shift under Trump: Foreign countries and investors want to reduce their exposure to the United States, which has moved from a source of security and stability to a driver of instability and unpredictability under Trump.

“Trump has shown that he is willing to use foreign countries’ economic dependence on the U.S. as leverage against them in negotiations,” McDowell said. “As global perceptions of the US are changing, it is only natural that investors — public and private alike — are reconsidering their relationship with the dollar.”

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Kurtenbach reported from Bangkok. Associated Press videographer Yong Jun Chang in Seoul and AP Business Writer Kelvin Chan in London contributed to this report.

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The Dictatorship

Speaker Johnson faces tough choices on partial government shutdown and debate over ICE

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Speaker Johnson faces tough choices on partial government shutdown and debate over ICE

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump implored the House on Monday to end the partial government shutdownbut neither Republicans nor Democrats appeared ready to quickly approve the federal funding package he brokered with the Senate without first debating their own demands over immigration enforcement operations.

Democrats are refusing to provide the votes House Speaker Mike Johnson needs to push the package forward as they try to rein in the Trump administration’s deportation operations after the shooting deaths of two Americans in Minneapolis. That’s forcing Johnson to rely on his slim GOP majority, which has its own complaints about the package, to fall in line behind Trump’s deal with Senate Democrats.

Voting is expected to begin as soon as Tuesday, which would be day four of the partial shutdown. The Pentagon, Homeland Security and other agencies saw their funding lapse Saturday. And while many operations at those departments are deemed essential, and still functioning, some workers may go without pay or be furloughed.

“We need to get the Government open, and I hope all Republicans and Democrats will join me in supporting this Bill, and send it to my desk WITHOUT DELAY,” the president wrote on social media.

AP AUDIO: Speaker Johnson faces tough choices on partial government shutdown and debate over ICE

AP correspondent Donna Warder reports the latest efforts in Congress to avoid a government shutdown.

“There can be NO CHANGES at this time,” Trump insisted. “We will work together in good faith to address the issues that have been raised, but we cannot have another long, pointless, and destructive Shutdown.”

The stalemate points to difficult days ahead as Johnson relies on Trump to help muscle the package to passage.

The president struck a deal last week with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer in which Homeland Security would only be funded temporarily, though Feb. 13, as Congress debates changes to immigration enforcement operations. The Senate overwhelmingly approved the package with the rest of the government funding ahead of Saturday’s deadline.

Democrats demand changes to ICE

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries made it clear Monday that his side sees no reason to help Johnson push the bill forward in a procedural step, something that the majority party typically handles on its own.

With Johnson facing unrest from his own Republican ranks, Jeffries is seizing the leverage it provides Democrats to demand changes to immigration operations.

“On rare occasions have we stepped in to deal with Republican dysfunction,” Jeffries said at the Capitol.

Democrats are demanding restraints on Immigration and Customs Enforcement that go beyond $20 million for body cameras that already is in the bill. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced Monday that officers on the ground in Minneapolis, including ICE, will be immediately issued body-worn camerasand the program would be expanded nationwide as funding is available.

But Democrats are pressing for more. They want to require that federal immigration agents unmask — noting that few, if any, other law enforcement agencies routinely mask themselves in the U.S. — and they want officers to rely on judicial, rather than administrative, warrants in their operations.

They also want an end to roving patrols, amid other changes.

Jeffries said the administration needs to begin negotiations now, not over the next two weeks, on changes to immigration enforcement operations.

Certain Democrats, however, are splintering with the leader, and pushing for quicker passage of the funding package to avoid government disruptions.

Republicans launch their own demands

At the same time, House Republicans, with some allies in the Senate, are making their own demands, as they work to support Trump’s clampdown on immigrants in the U.S.

The House Freedom Caucus has insisted on fuller funding for Homeland Security while certain Republicans pushed to include the SAVE Acta longshot Trump priority that would require proof of citizenship before Americans are eligible to participate in elections and vote. Critics say it would disenfranchise millions of voters.

Late Monday, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., dropped her demand to attach the voting bill to the funding package after she and Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., met with Trump at the White House. She posted afterward that it would be better to try to advance that bill separately through the Senate, and keep the government open.

The development was seen as helping Johnson push ahead.

“Obviously the president really wants this,” Majority Leader Steve Scalise said at the Capitol.

“We always work ‘til the midnight hour to get the votes,” Scalise said. “You never start the process with everybody on board. You work through it.”

Workers without pay if partial government shutdown drags on

Meanwhile, a number of federal agencies are snared in the funding standoff after the government went into a partial shutdown over the weekend.

Defense, health, transportation and housing are among those that were given shutdown guidance by the administration, though many operations are deemed essential and services are not necessarily interrupted. Workers could go without pay if the impasse drags on. Some could be furloughed.

Lawmakers from both parties are increasingly concerned the closure will disrupt the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which they rely on to help constituents after deadly snowstorms and other disasters.

This is the second time in a matter of months that federal government operations have been disrupted as lawmakers use the annual funding process as leverage to extract policy changes. Last fall, Democrats sparked what became the longest federal shutdown in history, 43 daysas they protested the expiration of health insurance tax breaks.

That shutdown ended with a promise to vote on proposals to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. But with GOP opposition, Democrats were unable to achieve their goal of keeping the subsidies in place. Insurance premiums spiked in the new year for millions of people.

Trump tries to prevent another long shutdown

Trump is already working on an immigration deal to ensure the shutdown doesn’t drag on.

Johnson said he was in the Oval Office last week when Trump, along with border czar Tom Homan, spoke with Schumer of New York as they discussed the immigration changes.

Body cameras, which are already provided for in the package, and an end to the roving patrols by immigration agents are areas of potential agreement, Johnson said.

But Johnson drew a line at other Democratic demands. He said he does not think that requiring immigration officers to remove their masks would have support from Republicans because it could lead to problems if their personal images and private information is posted online by protesters.

And Senate Majority Leader John Thune tapped the brakes on the demand from Democrats to require judicial warrants for officers’ searches, saying it’s likely to be a part of the negotiations ahead.

“It’s going to be very difficult to reach agreement in two weeks,” Thune said at the Capitol.

Democrats, however, said the immigration operations are out of control, and must end in Minneapolis and other cities.

Growing numbers of lawmakers are also calling for Noem to be fired or impeached.

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Associated Press writers Kevin Freking, Matt Brown and Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.

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The Dictatorship

Grammys: Trevor Noah’ takes aim at absent Nicki Minaj, Trump

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Grammys: Trevor Noah’ takes aim at absent Nicki Minaj, Trump

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Trevor Noah once again roamed through the audience during his monologue to open the Grammy Awardstaking pokes at the stars while standing right next to them, but he saved his most pointed jokes for absentees, and elicited an angry post from the president.

Nicki Minaj is not here,” Noah said, to big cheers from the audience at Crypto.com Arena. “She is still at the White House with Donald Trump discussing very important issues.”

Minaj this week visited and praised the president, the culmination of a move toward MAGA that she’s made in recent months.

Noah broke into a Trump impression. “Actually Nicki, I have the biggest ass, everybody’s saying it Nicki.”

In his sixth time hosting the show — and what he says will be his last — Noah mostly played it safe during his monologue, not delving too much into much politics or controversy, at least during his monologue. There was no mention of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (on a night when many attendees were wearing “ICE OUT” buttons).

But Noah got more pointed later in the show, after Billie Eilish won song of the year.

“Wow. That is a Grammy that every artist wants,” Noah said, “almost as much as Trump wants Greenland. Which makes sense. I mean, because Epstein’s island is gone, he needs a new island to hang out with Bill Clinton.”

After the show in a Truth Social post, Trump reacted.

“Noah said, INCORRECTLY about me, that Donald Trump and Bill Clinton spent time on Epstein Island. WRONG!!! I can’t speak for Bill, but I have never been to Epstein Island, nor anywhere close, and until tonight’s false and defamatory, statement, have never been accused being there, not even by the Fake News Media,” the post said. “Noah, a total loser, better get his facts straight, and get them straight fast. It looks like I’ll be sending my lawyers to sue this poor, pathetic, talentless, dope of an M.C.”

After the crowd’s reaction to the joke during the show, Noah said, “Oh, I told you, it’s my last year. What are you going to do about it?”

At a different point in the show, Noah joked about the president’s penchant for suing TV networks when he said the Grammys were airing “completely live” because “if we edited any of the show, the president would sue CBS for $16 billion,” referring to Trump’s recent history with CBS News and a settlement he got from Paramount last summer.

It had seemed at first like he wasn’t going to go very far into such material.

He said during the monologue Lauryn Hill was performing on the show for the first time since 1999.

“Do you understand how long ago that is?” he said. “Back in 1999, the president had had a sex scandal, people thought computers were about to destroy the world, and Diddy was arrested.”

Later in the show, Noah cozied up to the night’s biggest nominee, Kendrick Lamarand only congratulated him.

“I actually thought about writing a few jokes roasting you, but then I remembered what you can do to light-skinned dudes from other countries,” Noah, who is from South Africa, said in a reference to Lamar’s beef with the Canadian rapper Drake that culminated in last year’s big Grammy winner “Not Like Us.”

Later, he sat with Bad Bunny, and asked if he could come live with him in his native Puerto Rico if things got too bad in the U.S.

“Trevor I have some news for you,” Bad Bunny said. “Puerto Rico is part of America.”

The Recording Academy announced less than three weeks ago that Noah was returning “one final time.”

“I believe in term limits,” Noah said during the show.

Only singer Andy Williams, who hosted the Grammys seven times in the 1970s, has hosted more often.

Noah himself is a four-time Grammy nominee, and was up this year in the best audio book recording category for “Into The Uncut Grass,” a children’s story. He lost to the Dalai Lama.

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This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Nicki Minaj in several places.

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For more coverage of the 2026 Grammy Awards, visit: https://apnews.com/hub/grammy-awards

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