Congress
Joni Ernst is the next GOP senator on retirement watch
Senate Republicans are bracing for another one of their colleagues to possibly call it quits: Joni Ernst.
The two-term Iowa senator hasn’t officially announced her plans for 2026, and she’s gone through some of the motions of launching another campaign, including recently hiring someone to manage it and announcing her annual fall fundraiser.
But three people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions said there is rising concern among fellow Senate Republicans that Ernst will retire rather than run for reelection, giving Republicans another seat to defend next fall.
Many will be watching closely for clues next week when Ernst files new campaign fundraising totals. She raised just over $1 million in the first quarter of 2025, a solid but not overwhelming number for an in-cycle senator.
Asked about the senator’s 2026 plans, Ernst spokesperson Palmer Brigham declined to say definitively that she would run again: “Senator Ernst is focused on her work delivering for Iowans in the Senate to make Washington ‘squeal,’ making President Trump’s historic tax cuts permanent through the One Big Beautiful Bill, and advancing a strong NDAA.”
Ernst has told people as recently as the past month that she is still considering whether she wants to run again, according to a fourth person granted anonymity to discuss the matter.
Iowa isn’t in the top tier of potential pickup opportunities for Democrats — their best bets are the seat being vacated by Thom Tillis in North Carolina and unseating Susan Collins in Maine. But Democrats view it as in play, especially if Trump and his party are facing steep headwinds by next November.
Asked about Ernst, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in a brief interview Thursday, “I’m doing everything I can to encourage her to run for reelection.”
“Ultimately that’s a decision she’d have to make,” Thune added. “I think she’s moving forward.”
Multiple Democrats are already in the race, including — Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. J.D. Scholten. If Ernst were to decide not to run, Republicans believe they already have at least one compelling candidate waiting in the wings. Two of the people granted anonymity said Rep. Ashley Hinson is highly likely to enter the race if Ernst bows out.
Hinson, a former TV news anchor, is the most formidable fundraiser in the Iowa House delegation. The $2.2 million she reported in her campaign coffers earlier this year was only about $800,000 behind what Ernst had available to spend. Hinson and multiple aides did not respond to requests for comment.
Raised on a farm before becoming an Army Reserve officer, Ernst was first re-elected in 2014 on a pledge to “make ’em squeal” in Washington by reining in government spending. She has long been viewed as a rising star within the party, and she beat Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer in 2018 to join the GOP leadership team.
Ernst said last year that she intended to run for reelection, but she’s had recent setbacks. She lost her bid to be the No. 3 GOP leader late last year to Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton. And her early concerns about Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, put Ernst under fierce scrutiny from MAGA allies — some of whom accused her of trying to angle to claim the top Pentagon job herself.
Ernst, a sexual assault survivor and combat veteran, quickly said after a committee hearing on Hegseth’s nomination that she would support him.
As she came under pressure from Trump allies, Ernst aligned herself closely with Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative earlier this year, including leading the Senate’s DOGE caucus. But Musk’s cost-cutting mission has since fizzled amid a messy breakup between the billionaire and the president.
Even enshrining a small amount of Musk’s identified savings is facing steep headwinds in the Senate, where many Republicans want to slim down a $9.4 billion package of clawbacks.
Also recently, Ernst generated unflattering headlines when she responded to town hall attendees angry about Medicaid cuts by saying, “Well, we all are going to die.”
Ernst would be the fourth Senate Republican to retire ahead of 2026, joining Tillis and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky as well as Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, who is running for governor.
Congress
Cait Conley wins Democratic primary to face Rep. Mike Lawler
NEW YORK — Army veteran Cait Conley has emerged victorious in the bitter Democratic primary for New York’s 17th Congressional District, setting up a general election fight between a past national security staffer for former President Joe Biden and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.
Conley, who served six tours overseas before becoming the National Security Council’s director for counterterrorism, leaned on her military service during her campaign, casting herself as a tough-as-nails political outsider who could cut through the noise and find pragmatic solutions.
Congress
Democratic socialist Valdez wins open Brooklyn-Queens primary
NEW YORK — State Assemblymember Claire Valdez prevailed in the tumultuous primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez, notching the Democratic Socialists of America a win in one of the left’s most high-profile proxy wars.
Valdez, who has served in the Assembly representing Queens since last year, was boosted by the city chapter of the DSA and Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Her major competitor was Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, who had the backing of the state Working Families Party and Velázquez.
The dynamics of those competing interests loomed over the campaign, exposing tensions among progressive Democrats.
The 7th District, which covers parts of Brooklyn and Queens, has been dubbed the “Commie Corridor.” That’s a nod to the DSA’s electoral power there — which it flexed during last year’s June mayoral primary when Mamdani enjoyed some of his strongest results in that district.
While the candidates agreed on most policy positions, Valdez and Reynoso spent months sparring over who had the most ironclad progressive values. Complicating matters further for them was New York City Council member Julie Won, who had the support of notable Asian American organizations and elected officials but struggled to gain enough traction to emerge as a real threat. Public defender Vichal Kumar was also on the ballot.
Even though the contenders all referred to Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “genocide,” Valdez repeatedly criticized Reynoso for how long it took him to use that label. She also attacked him for accepting campaign donations from people affiliated with the real estate industry.
In the waning days of the campaign, Valdez sought to tie Reynoso to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee — a tactic progressive candidates have long employed to mobilize their base, especially as the public’s view of Israel has grown increasingly negative. AIPAC said it was not involved in this race, and its independent expenditure arm did not appear to spend money on the contest.
Reynoso, meanwhile, tried to use Mamdani’s endorsement against Valdez, accusing her of being “beholden” to the mayor — a strategy that evidently did not land with an electorate that views Mamdani so positively. One significant flashpoint unfolded when the NYPD faced accusations of collaborating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement during a chaotic incident in Brooklyn, a charge Mamdani has denied. Reynoso said that when things “get complicated with the NYPD,” he doesn’t have “any bosses telling me to slow down and wait and work on messaging.”
A super PAC supporting Reynoso also attacked Valdez for not having as much political experience as Reynoso, who served in the City Council and as a community organizer prior to becoming borough president.
Valdez’s win is a boon for Mamdani, who put his political capital on the line in a handful of races this cycle — and angered Democratic power brokers in the process. Velázquez, a 16-term incumbent known as “La Luchadora” who’s served as a mentor for younger progressives in the city, was an early supporter of Mamdani in the mayoral election. But the two ended up on opposite sides in races up and down the ballot this year, stress-testing how the new mayor navigates relations with powerful, well-respected party figures.
Reynoso emphasized his “underdog” status in the race, despite his backing from Velázquez, the Working Families Party and major unions, pointing to Mamdani’s involvement and the district becoming more gentrified. Like Velázquez, Reynoso also endorsed Mamdani in the mayoral primary. But during the campaign, he accused the mayor of being “disloyal” to the veteran lawmaker.
Super PACs emerged as a major point of contention in the race as well. Reynoso and Won both criticized Valdez for putting public messaging on her campaign site — a common tactic viewed as a cue to PACs known as “redboxing” — where she presented talking points contrasting herself with Reynoso. Reynoso posted a redbox on his site too, but said he “had to do it” after Valdez put one up. After super PACs began supporting both candidates, Won touted herself as the only contender keeping their promise not to accept super PAC spending.
Throughout the campaign, Valdez leaned on her background as a union organizer. Originally from Texas, she moved to New York over a decade ago to be an artist. She is all but certain to win in the fall, when she will face Republican Melvin Rivera. Reynoso has not said if he will decline the Working Families Party ballot line for the general election.
Congress
Brad Lander trounces New York Rep. Dan Goldman in election upset
NEW YORK — Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander defeated Rep. Dan Goldman in Tuesday’s Democratic congressional primary, ousting the two-term lawmaker after a bruising campaign that focused heavily on their differences over Israel.
On the campaign trail, Lander concentrated much of his attention on immigration and his opposition to U.S. military aid for Israel — and he was buoyed by an early endorsement from Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Goldman became a household name after helping lead the first impeachment of President Donald Trump in 2019. A former federal prosecutor and heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, he was first elected to Congress in 2022 by a razor-thin margin, making his seat a target for progressives seeking to expand their footprint in the city’s congressional delegation.
The result wasn’t unexpected, as a recent poll showed Lander holding a commanding lead. With the primary in the bag, Lander is expected to coast in November’s general election, since there’s no competitive Republican candidate on the ballot.
Goldman’s district is safely Democratic, so Lander’s victory will not impact the party’s broader push to reclaim control of the House in November’s midterm elections.
Lander’s win is, however, a boon for the Democratic Party’s ascendant left wing — and a feather in the cap for Mamdani, who endorsed Lander the same day he launched his campaign in mid-December. In Lander, Mamdani has an ally who is more likely to push his priorities on Capitol Hill, a sharp contrast with Goldman, who never offered support for Mamdani during last year’s New York City mayoral race.
In many ways, Lander and Goldman, who are both Jewish, do not differ that much from each other politically. They are both ardent critics of the Trump administration’s hard-line immigration agenda and agree millionaires should be taxed at higher rates.
Lander found an edge, though, by making the race about Israel.
Fashioning himself a “liberal Zionist,” Lander attacked Goldman relentlessly on the campaign trail over the perception that the incumbent hasn’t been forceful enough in speaking out against Israel’s war in Gaza, which has left more than 75,000 Palestinians dead after being launched in response to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, terror attack. Lander has blasted Goldman for not supporting legislation to block more U.S. military aid for Israel and accused him of kow-towing to pro-Israel lobbying groups by not calling the country’s war a “genocide.”
Supportive super PACs, including one funded by prominent business owners who also backed Mamdani’s mayoral run, piled on, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads knocking Goldman and lauding Lander in the leadup to the election.
The talking points resonated with voters in Goldman’s district, which voted overwhelmingly for Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel’s government, in last year’s mayoral election.
Lander was also able to capitalize on his deep ties to the district, especially in the Brooklyn portion, which he represented for 11 years while serving as a member of the New York City Council.
Goldman tried to fend off Lander’s challenge by committing to spend as much as $1 million of his own money on the race. Ultimately, the money didn’t move the needle enough for Goldman, who serves on the House Judiciary and Homeland Security Committees.
Lander mounted his challenge after placing third in the city’s Democratic mayoral primary last June. Initially, he angled for a top job in Mamdani’s administration after the mayoral race, but he switched gears to run for Congress after the mayor reportedly informed him there would be no position available for him at City Hall.
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