Congress

Megabill debt warnings fall on deaf ears inside the GOP

Published

1 year ago

June 18, 2025

Senate Republicans are fielding mounting warnings from economists that their signature legislation would add trillions of dollars to the deficit. It appears to be the last thing on their minds.

As Senate Majority Leader John Thune prepares to jam through the GOP’s sprawling border, energy and tax package to President Donald Trump’s desk, fellow Republicans are largely ignoring a host of reports warning that their bill would worsen the nation’s fiscal trajectory in a serious way.

They’re instead relying on estimates from the White House that assume vastly greater economic growth than virtually every other economic model — while trashing the credibility of Congress’ nonpartisan budget scorer, the Congressional Budget Office, which said on Tuesday that the House-passed border, energy and tax bill would add around $2.8 trillion to the deficit over a decade.

“It’s a model. And obviously, they’ve been famously wrong before,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) of the latest CBO report. “We do have more debt now than we had before, for sure, but I think they grossly underestimate the economic benefits.”

The problem highlighted by CBO and other economists is this: While the GOP’s tax cuts may provide some economic growth, they will likely not juice the economy as much as when Republicans first enacted Trump’s tax cuts in 2017. On the flip side, with federal debt closing in on $37 trillion, the rising costs of servicing more expensive interest payments will far outweigh any additional revenue that is generated from increased economic growth.

“The economic and fiscal state is not what it was in 2017,” said Paul Winfree, president and CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center, who was previously a top economic official in the first Trump administration. Winfree added in a text message that “the stock of debt is so large that anything we do to modestly increase productivity (and growth) without reducing spending … will lead to higher costs.”

That was underscored Tuesday when CBO put a number this week to the warning economists have been making for months: that the GOP package would hike interest rates and in turn increase borrowing costs.

Higher interest rates would boost payments on the national debt by an estimated $440 billion over a decade, CBO predicted, while the megabill would drive yearly economic growth of just 0.5 percent on average during that time. House Republican leaders are claiming the bill would generate $2.5 trillion by banking on total average growth of 2.6 percent.

That finding prompted an unusual phenomenon. Usually tax-cutting bills tend to cost less under so-called “dynamic” scores that include economic effects. Not so here: The $2.8 trillion figure released Tuesday outstripped the CBO’s prior $2.4 trillion estimate that did not include economic analysis — mostly attributable to the fact that, in their words, the bill “would increase interest rates.”

Lack of recognition of the dynamic has upset at least one Republican, Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who dropped his own report Wednesday illustrating that the GOP’s megabill has little shot of bending the deficit trajectory downward, even in the rosiest of economic circumstances.

Johnson, who said he will vote against the massive tax and spending package as it’s currently written, is challenging his colleagues in the Senate and in the administration to show him where he’s wrong.

“The whole point of laying out the report was to get everyone to acknowledge and admit reality,” Johnson told reporters. “Nobody’s pushed back on my numbers. Here’s an opportunity to do it. … I’ve shown people my work. Who else has shown people work?”

But Thune took to the Senate floor on Wednesday to argue that the party-line megabill would generate enough revenue — around $4.1 trillion — through economic growth to completely make up for the deficit impact from the reduced revenue, citing a report from the White House’s Council for Economic Advisors that asserts the bill would lead to long-run GDP growth of up to 3.5 percent.

Thune added that CBO “characteristically, I should say, underestimates the economic growth, and hence the revenue, that this bill would provide.”

The White House figures are outliers compared with other economic models. The conservative-leaning Tax Foundation found, for instance, that the GOP’s plan would boost economic growth by 0.8 percent in the long-run but still, on a dynamic basis and after $1.5 trillion in net spending cuts, add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over 10 years.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that the bill would spur economic growth of 0.4 percent over 10 years and add $3.2 trillion to the deficit over a decade, all things considered.

Kyle Pomerleau of the American Enterprise Institute called the White House estimates “outrageous” and “way higher than everyone else’s.” He said the in-house analysis takes into account tax incentives, like those for domestic manufacturing, that didn’t end up in the bill that passed the House in May.

“They just say that, ‘well, the individual income tax — that’s going to make people work more and that’s it,’” he said. “But it misses so many different details of the actual reform itself.”

Democrats say voters will notice if the GOP package becomes a drag on the economy rather than the boon Republicans are marketing. Reiterating a claim party leaders often voice, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said the 2017 tax bill “ended up being a stone” around Republicans’ neck “that helped lead to their bloodletting” in the 2018 midterms.

“At some point they have to look at all this new information and decide to stop and go back to the drawing board,” Murphy said in a brief interview. “Because what they’re designing is not going to help our economy and is going to hurt a ton of people.”

The release of the CBO report comes as Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) fields requests from several of his GOP colleagues to scale back changes to taxes that fund Medicaid and cuts to green energy credits. Crapo has been also pushing to use an accounting maneuver known as a current policy baseline, which would effectively zero out the cost of around $3.8 trillion in tax cut extensions.

It would allow Senate Republicans to make Trump’s tax cuts permanent without having to offset much of their deficit impact, which would otherwise be required by the Senate’s budget rules.

Asked for his reaction to the new CBO report, Crapo said he has “the same reaction I’ve always had” to the official scorekeeper’s numbers: “They’re not using the right baseline, and they aren’t analyzing it dynamically.”

Jordain Carney, Jennifer Scholtes and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.

Congress

Senate Republicans exclude Democrats’ food aid demand from farm bill

Published

10 hours ago

June 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Senate Republicans’ farm bill proposal rejects Democrats’ demands to delay a planned shift of some food aid costs to states, according to three people familiar with the plans — jeopardizing hopes of winning bipartisan support for the package.

Democrats say they will oppose a farm bill that doesn’t push back a requirement that will soon force some states to pay for some Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, a provision included in the domestic policy megalaw Republicans passed last year.

Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) gave Senate staff and industry representatives a private preview of his farm bill text Monday afternoon ahead of a planned public release of the discussion draft at 2 p.m. Tuesday, according to the people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss the not-yet-public plans.

Boozman will need some Democratic support to guarantee the bill can clear the 60-vote threshold on the Senate floor.

A GOP spokesperson for the Agriculture Committee said Boozman had “developed a discussion draft that can earn the bipartisan support needed for Senate passage.” The spokesperson added that Boozman will continue talks with senators and industry representatives while “finalizing text and moving toward a markup.”

The draft legislation also excludes some Republican and agriculture industry priorities, such as provisions that would allow year-round sales of E15 fuel and block states from creating certain animal welfare and pesticide labeling laws, according to the three people.

Senators from both parties are already eyeing how they might amend the bill to include their priorities. That could muddy the legislation’s path forward by generating a number of conflicts during the committee’s markup ahead of a potential floor vote on the package.

Some GOP senators whose state budgets would be hard hit by the change have privately indicated that they would support delaying the provision, which is set to begin October 2027.

Those senators and anti-hunger advocates argue the SNAP cost-share plan will kick people off the program and lead to benefit cuts. Democrats also note that many states will already receive delays or exemptions to the cost-share requirement due to high or low payment error rates.

Boozman said in an interview last month that he was “open to listening” to Democrats’ argument, but contended it could complicate his efforts to craft a budget-neutral bill.

The Senate’s version largely mirrors the House’s, which passed with 12 Democratic votes in April. Boozman is aiming to mark up his bill between the chamber’s Fourth of July and August recesses.

Congress

Senate Republicans say it’s time to give Trump a reality check

Published

10 hours ago

June 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Donald Trump is about to come face to face with one of his frequent punching bags: Senate Republicans.

They might just be in a mood to punch back.

The president was invited to GOP senators’ Wednesday lunch to push for his No. 1 priority, the GOP election bill known as the SAVE America Act. But several outgoing Republicans who have clashed with Trump said Monday they will be there to deliver a reality check: The bill isn’t passing, and it’s time to move on.

“I’m going to be there front and center,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told reporters. “It will be important if it actually is a constructive exchange of different opinions, and hopefully we can all get on the same page. Right now, we’re not in a great place.”

Cornyn, who recently lost his bid for a fifth term to a Trump-endorsed challenger, reiterated the votes just aren’t there to pass the elections bill: “I’ve been around here long enough and been through enough battles and counted enough votes to know that it doesn’t just magically occur, no matter how much you wish it would happen.”

Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) — who are also departing the Senate in part due to Trump — said Monday they, too, will be at the closed-door lunch and urged Trump to turn the page on the SAVE America Act.

“I’m a co-sponsor, but it doesn’t have the votes, and so it’s time to talk about something else,” said Cassidy, who also lost to a Trump-backed primary opponent.

Trump was invited to the Wednesday lunch by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who oversees the weekly gathering as GOP steering committee chair, at a tenuous moment. Senate Republicans have grown frustrated with Trump’s fixation on the elections bill, are openly questioning parts of his Iran deal and worry that his habit of blindsiding them with sudden policy U-turns is making it harder to preserve their majority in November.

Scott’s invitation comes as the elections bill has emerged as a perennial headache for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, whom Scott informed of the invite after it was extended. Thune and other members of the GOP conference insist it doesn’t have the votes to pass and have begged Trump to focus on more attainable priorities.

Same goes, they say, for other Trump demands — killing the 60-vote filibuster threshold for legislation, for instance, and ending the “blue slip” practice of giving home-state senators a say on some presidential nominees.

“None of those are going to happen here, and we need to be honest with the president,” Tillis said. “So why don’t we spend more time being productive about how we communicate, when we communicate, and get some of these very pressing issues done?”

But Trump has shown he will not relent, especially on the SAVE America Act — a bill that would impose new proof-of-citizenship and identification requirements for U.S. voters in its base form, with the president demanding still other controversial provisions added on top of that.

In a Truth Social post late last week, Trump name-checked Thune and urged the Senate to nix the filibuster and approve the bill: “Anybody who doesn’t want to Terminate the Filibuster is a FOOL, a very stupid one, at that!”

Several GOP senators, including Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, have objected to the precedent the bill would set by nationalizing election procedures. Test votes on the bill have not garnered more than 48 supporters, though a narrower bill focused on voter ID won 50 votes. That’s still far short of the 60 votes needed to defeat a certain Democratic filibuster.

Asked late last week about Trump’s comments, Thune said a majority of Senate Republicans have long-held views against nixing the filibuster.

“It’s not a question of what I want to do or don’t want to do,” he said. “It does always come back to the math. And … there just aren’t the votes to do it.”

Thune said Monday that he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the election bill comes up but predicted it would be a “back and forth” between Trump and GOP senators over multiple subjects, including the brewing Iran deal and the stalemate over a key surveillance law and future of the director of national intelligence post.

He added that “hopefully” the discussion would include “celebrating some of our successes, talking about the path forward.”

The GOP election bill has become a consistent friction point within the party and within the Senate GOP conference. Senate Republicans largely support the bill but believe the party needs to turn its focus to Democrats, rather than fighting each other, with just months to go until the midterms.

Republican senators have kvetched for months about how they believe Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) is setting unrealistic expectations for the bill’s passage. Lee posted on X over the weekend that he spoke with Trump and “he’s as convinced as I am that we can get this done if the Senate’s willing to do the hard work.”

Cornyn called out Lee Monday, saying that he “is contributing to this fantasy that somehow it’s going to happen.”

Lee responded that the election bill isn’t a fantasy but “a plan to avoid a nightmare — one that’s coming soon unless we act.”

Senate Republicans agreed to take up the voting bill earlier this year, in part after leaders privately reassured wary GOP senators that the debate wouldn’t result in an attempt to skirt the 60-vote filibuster. But the weekslong debate failed to break the stalemate on the bill, and Senate Republicans ultimately placed it on the back burner as other legislative deadlines piled up.

Conservatives, however, hadn’t forgotten about the bill, and now they want the Senate to continue to vote on it.

Scott — who came in third in the leadership contest Thune won after the 2024 election— sent a letter to his fellow Senate Republicans Monday, a copy of which was obtained by Blue Light News, saying that he wanted to have “robust conversations” this week about what the party should be focused on before the midterms. That, he said, should include voting on the SAVE America Act or narrower voter ID legislation.

“We need to make a clear distinction as to who the good guys are and who the bad guys are,” Scott wrote in the letter. “We need to show voters that we are listening to them and will fight for their priorities whether any Democrats vote with us or not.”

Congress

Senate passes housing affordability bill

Published

11 hours ago

June 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The Senate on Monday overwhelmingly passed a long-awaited bipartisan housing bill, which is expected to set the legislation on a glide path to President Donald Trump’s desk for signature as soon as this week.

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which passed 85-5 and contains almost 60 individual provisions, aims to tackle housing affordability and boost housing supply and homeownership. Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) voted “no.”

The legislation now moves on to the House, which could take up the bill for final passage as soon as Tuesday.

The legislation has become a pillar of Congress’ overall response to affordability concerns that have emerged as a key issue this midterm election year.

Despite broad, bipartisan support for the bill in both the House and Senate, the two chambers went back and forth on the legislation for months. Primary friction points developed over language establishing new restrictions on large Wall Street investors purchasing single-family homes, a ban on the Federal Reserve issuing a digital currency and a slate of community banking deregulation initiatives, among other measures.

The bill was able to move forward last week after the four lawmakers leading the legislation — Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and House Financial Services Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) and ranking member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) — came to an agreement. The White House also announced support for the final version of the bill, which contains Trump’s top priority of limiting Wall Street’s footprint in the housing market.