Politics
Paxton presents an opportunity in Texas — if Democrats can take advantage of it
Texas Republicans’ messy Senate primary is giving Democrats hope that they could finally have an opening to wedge into higher office in the red state — for real this time.
But a potential pileup of candidates as the party sees renewed interest in the race could spoil their chances of finally flipping the Lone Star State.
Attorney General Ken Paxton, who endured multiple scandals while in office, is leading in the polls against longtime incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn. A Paxton victory could divide Republicans and potentially even sway some to support a Democrat. Nearly two dozen Texas Democratic members of Congress, party leaders and strategists described a sense of opportunity, but were divided on the type of candidate to run.
Some argued for a progressive, others thought a more centrist candidate could gain traction, while others weren’t even sure Democrats could pull off a win. There are calls both for new blood and for a proven candidate. Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) just wants a candidate who’d “sound like a Texas Democrat” and could buck national trends..
“I think this is just a great opportunity for Democrats, and we don’t need to blow it,” said Veasey, who said he isn’t interested in a run.
Flipping Texas is a perennial Democratic dream, but core constituencies have moved further to the right, and Democrats haven’t held a Senate seat in the state since 1993. The state’s expensive media markets require fundraising prowess. That leaves the party with a crowded field of interested candidates, but none with a proven track record of winning statewide. Plenty of Democrats are skeptical they’d even win against Paxton, whose nomination isn’t guaranteed.
“I am hopeful that [Cornyn] could pull it off, because if you’re going to have a Republican in Texas, why not let it be John,” said Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas).
Democrats acknowledge they’d stand little chance of unseating Cornyn, who’s been a fixture in Texas politics for decades. But Paxton, a Trump loyalist who was impeached by the Republican-held Texas House (and acquitted in the impeachment trial) and faced a federal corruption investigation, has been a polarizing figure in the Texas GOP, and, Democrats hope, an opponent they could defeat.
“Democrats are foaming at the mouth about Ken Paxton,” said Katherine Fischer, deputy executive director of Texas Majority PAC, which works to elect Democrats statewide. “We’re seeing in local elections in Texas and across the country there is already a backlash against Trump and against MAGA. Ken Paxton is about as MAGA as you can get.”
First they need to find a viable Senate candidate.
After coming up short in previous cycles, many Texas Democrats are hesitant about supporting former Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke, both of whom have signaled their interest in another bid. O’Rourke, who unsuccessfully ran statewide in 2018 and 2022, has been hosting packed town halls across the state. Allred, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by about 8.5 percentage points, has said he was “seriously considering” another run.
“Well, [Allred and O’Rourke are] both talking about it, and I hope that they will resolve that one person’s running and not all,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett.
Allred’s failed campaign has left a bad taste among some Texans, especially progressives, who believe he did not run aggressively or do enough grassroots outreach. And while O’Rourke is still a favorite son in Texas Democratic circles, many of those supporters believe he will be haunted by his position against assault rifles in a gun-loving state.
“They both tried it, and especially the last time, the margins were pretty wide,” said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). “And I think those are all things to consider.”
Joel Montfort, a Texas-based Democratic strategist, agreed: “Putting the same two guys up over and over, I don’t think that’s going to deliver us.”
That’s why some say it’s time to try something new. Texas Democrats have talked up potential bids by state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic seminarian and frequently viral member who helped prosecute Paxton during his impeachment.
Talarico told Blue Light News: “I’m having conversations about how I can best serve Texas, and that includes the Senate race. But in my training as a pastor, you learn the importance of listening and how hard it is to truly listen. With so much at stake for Texas, I’m trying to listen more than I talk right now.”
His potential candidacy is generating some interest from players who have run successful upstart campaigns. “It’s going to take a Democrat who can make the case against Washington D.C., the status quo, and the powers that to be to win a senate race in Texas,” said Andrew Mamo, a veteran of Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign who is informally advising Talarico. “James is one of the rare people in the party with the profile and most importantly the storytelling skills to get that done.”
State Sen. Nathan Johnson, a Dallas lawyer, is in the mix but he’s also eyeing a run for attorney general. Some party insiders privately worry a state lawmaker won’t bring the necessary firepower, saying they need to find a candidate with experience running statewide — or at least someone who represents Texas in Congress — due to the sheer amount of resources required to compete in the second-largest state.
Veasey and fellow Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro have both been talked up as potential candidates, though Veasey in an interview ruled out a run. A person close to Castro said he was actively looking at the race.
While Democrats across the nation believe backlash against President Donald Trump’s unpopular agenda like his DOGE cuts and trade war will help in the midterms, the Democratic dream of winning Texas — which once seemed like only a matter of time — now feels farther away.
The party’s coalition problems are on stark display in South Texas, where Latino-heavy border districts like Gonzalez’s shifted dramatically toward Trump. Gonzalez and other Democrats have been warning of their party’s need to reverse their fortunes with Latino voters.
“There is work to be done on Latino erosion,” said Tory Gavito, an Austin-based Democratic strategist. “There is work to be done to make sure infrastructure is incredibly sound in places like Houston and Dallas and San Antonio and South Texas.”
Progressive Democrats are eager to back a candidate who runs to the left of Allred, based on their belief that working-class voters can be brought back to the party with a populist economic message.
“We’ve got to have somebody run who’s going to be willing to go travel the state, and connect with a diverse set of working-class voters,” said Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas). “In Texas, people are looking for somebody that’s authentic and real, willing to tell it like it is, that’s going to energize our base, but then bring a lot of disaffected voters back to the polls.”
Allred is widely seen by Texas Democrats as the preferred candidate of Washington, and some said they’re tired of out-of-state consultants in their backyard.
“We don’t want people from D.C. telling Texans what to do,” said Nancy Thompson, a Democratic activist and founder of Mothers Against Greg Abbott.
A strong contingent of the party, however, believes that running too far to the left would blow up their chances in what remains a socially conservative state.
“You have to have real candidates that are willing to sound like everyday Texans,” said Veasey. “Being part of the national team will get your ass killed.”
Leaders of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council knew it would be hard to get Ken Paxton to show up to their Senate town hall event. So, they turned to an unexpected ally: Sen. Ted Cruz.
Javier Palomarez, the council’s president and CEO, needed help since his own background – as both a Democrat and longtime ally of Paxton’s rival in the primary, Sen. John Cornyn – wouldn’t appeal to the Texas attorney general.
Cruz, however, was eager to step in. Soon, Palomarez was discussing logistics for the town hall with Paxton’s team; Paxton joined the event last week.
“We needed to find common ground and people that he trusted, that I trusted … and that clearly was Ted Cruz,” Palomarez said. “I don’t agree with Ted on a litany of shit, but at the end of the day, the guy’s always been a good partner to me and to the small business community.”
Cruz’s involvement hints at the significant behind-the-scenes role he is playing in this year’s high-stakes Texas Senate race — part-time adviser, part-time bundler, full-time believer that Paxton will pull out a win and keep Cruz from representing Texas alongside a Democrat.
Paxton’s inner circle is dotted with longtime Cruz allies, and Cruz’s aid could further cement his position as a Texas kingmaker in retiring GOP Sen. John Cornyn’s absence, earn new allies and boost his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 presidential bid. But if Paxton fails, it could be a black eye for Cruz.
“It is absolutely critical that Texas stay red, that Republicans keep a majority in the U.S. Senate and the House, and that we elect Ken Paxton instead of James Talarico,” Cruz said in an interview. “And so I am all in.”
Paxton’s campaign declined to comment for this story.
For decades, Cornyn has been the gatekeeper to Texas’ GOP donor class. But his loss has put Cruz even more at the center of Texas’ deep-pocketed donor community, letting him flex muscles first developed during his 2016 presidential run as Paxton tries to hold off Talarico and his fundraising machine. Paxton raised $18 million in the last quarter, some of those donations coming from first-time donors introduced to him by Cruz.
“Ted doesn’t go through a meeting in Texas where he’s not telling donors they’ve got to get on board,” said one person close to both Cruz and Paxton, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Cruz has regularly campaigned alongside Paxton and frequently jabs Talarico on his popular podcast. His super PAC has gone on air with anti-Talarico advertising. And in addition to greasing the rails with his big-money donors in the Lone Star State, he’s acting as an informal adviser, regularly speaking withPaxton, according to two people familiar with their conversations.The political orbits of Cruz and Paxton have significant overlap. Axiom Strategies — the GOP firm run by Jeff Roe, who led Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign — has long worked with both men. Nick Maddux, senior adviser to the Paxton campaign, was a key staffer in Cruz’s 2018 and 2024 reelection efforts. Sam Cooper, a longtime Cruz adviser, is now a senior strategist for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC.
Cruz stayed neutral during the messy primary between Cornyn and Paxton. He came off the sidelines after the runoff.
“Ted was one of the first ones that understood that, hey, this guy just got hit with $200 million of negative advertising. He’s running against an opponent who’s going to be well-funded,” said Cooper. “He’s going to need some help.”
Within a week of Paxton’s primary runoff victory in May, Cruz emceed a Washington fundraiser for Paxton, urging attendees to come together and support the Republican nominee. Days later, Cruz joined Paxton for a Texas fly-around, stopping in Dallas, Houston and Midland all in one day, to meet with donors. Cruz said they secured $3 million in donations on that day.
Cruz has presented himself as an emissary between more traditional GOP donors and Paxton’s hardline MAGA world.
“The case I’ve been making to donors who previously supported John Cornyn is, at this point, it’s a binary choice, and I think the choice is very clear,” Cruz said, noting he’s had “hundreds of conversations” with donors. “Many, if not most, of the longtime Paxton donors are also supporters of mine, but many, if not most, of the longtime Cornyn donors are supporters of mine, as well. And so I do think I’m able to bridge those two worlds.”
But Cruz’s involvement also carries some risk. Paxton is trailing in most recent polls, and Democrats are increasingly hopeful this is the cycle they finally flip a Texas Senate seat. If Paxton goes down, he could stifle Cruz’s momentum ahead of 2028, when other Republican hopefuls may attempt to lay the blame at Cruz’s feet.
“This is smart on Ted’s part,” said one longtime Texas Republican strategist not affiliated with either man, granted anonymity to speak openly. “It cements him with Paxton supporters as being the guy who stood up for him, and it allows him to expand his reach and have a greater claim on having a unified Texas behind him if he makes a run in 2028.”
If Paxton loses, “he put his best foot forward, and it’s going to be Paxton’s fault that he lost, not Ted Cruz’s,” the person said.
Cruz’s super PAC, Truth and Courage, was one of the first to go up backing Paxton, reserving over $2 million on air with an anti-Talarico ad, according to data from tracking firm AdImpact — though that spend has since been swamped by major buys from the Senate Leadership Fund’s PAC and other pro-Republican groups.
Cruz has hosted or participated in several fundraisers for Paxton, both in person and on Zoom. One of them — a fundraiser hosted by Cruz’s PAC on the sidelines of the Republican midterm convention, a confab Paxton later said “dropped our numbers” — featured dozens of donors crammed into an apartment in a glitzy uptown Dallas high-rise, in such close quarters that some of Paxton’s staffers were relegated to work on the balcony.
“It was incredibly well attended,” recalled Rep. Randy Fine (R-Florida), who spoke at the fundraiser. “You couldn’t move.”
AI safety groups aren’t buying OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s shifting stance on political spending in the midterms.
They’re wary of his concession that campaign cash from industry-aligned groups, like the OpenAI-aligned Leading the Future super PAC, may have inadvertently backfired. Instead, they’re pushing for stronger commitments to downsize the flood of money — and for candidates to reject any support from pro-AI groups.
“I won’t believe that they are actually changing their strategy, or their goals I should say, unless and until they do,” said Democratic New York assemblymember Alex Bores, who emerged as a key voice among AI regulation advocates after Leading the Future and other groups spent $8 million to tank his House campaign. He launched a $30 million effort to unify Democrats on AI policy last month.
Altman’s stark acknowledgement to Blue Light News follows a New York Times report that revealed OpenAI President Greg Brockman backed out of injecting more cash into Leading the Future earlier this summer, calling the super PAC’s efforts a “distraction” from the company’s mission. The pause is notable as Americans grow increasingly anxious about the risks the technology poses, and lawmakers scramble to figure out how to approach the emerging tech.
Still, some critics are not taking Altman’s concession or Brockman’s pullback as a sign of a fundamental change in the industry’s campaign strategy — at least not yet.
“What I read it as is they are no longer — or Greg Brockman in particular is not — going to fund Leading the Future,” said Bores. “Does that mean that the industry is not going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars trying to influence policy and get benefits on their way? No.”
Bores insisted that candidates should think twice before accepting financial support from Leading the Future specifically: “An elected official of either party taking money from Leading the Future should be viewed with incredible suspect.”
Guardrails Alliance political director Charlie Blaettler agreed, saying OpenAI leadership deciding to distance themselves from Leading the Future should be the final straw for Democrats backed by the group.
“If it’s too toxic for Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, why are Democrats still taking their money?” he said.
Leading the Future and rival super PAC network Public First — which advocates for AI regulation and is largely funded by OpenAI competitor Anthropic — together spent over $70 million through super PACs this cycle, according to FEC data.
Other pro-regulation advocates have jumped in with their own political spending, with groups like the Guardrails Alliance — a nonprofit and super PAC that launched in June — raising $5 million and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to support Bores. Some of Guardrails Alliance’s money came from OpenAI employees pushing back against Leading the Future, which is funded in large part by OpenAI president Brockman, his wife Anna, early OpenAI investors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, and their venture capital firm a16z. They have contributed a combined $75 million to Leading the Future.
Leading the Future and a16z declined to comment.
Some Democrats who were backed in their primaries by Leading the Future — like Reps. Ritchie Torres and Joe Morelle of New York and Jared Moskowitz of Florida — declined to say whether they would disavow the Leading the Future cash that boosted them in their races.
“An outside AI PAC spent money in the 4th district during the primary, but they didn’t donate directly to my campaign,” Rep. Val Hoyle (D-Ore.), who was backed by a nearly $300,000 investment from Leading the Future, said in a statement to Blue Light News.
She did not address whether she would disavow the group and its spending: “I’ve been working with labor leaders and advocates to put workers first when it comes to AI. We need clear federal guardrails to protect workers, safeguard our planet, prevent utility rate spikes and give consumers a voice.”
Even if candidates decide to further distance themselves from the industry’s spending, some pro-guardrails advocates said the onus still lies with figures like Altman to put a stop to — or significantly decrease — the influx of money altogether.
“[Altman was] basically saying, ‘These are the rules of the game, and I can’t really change them, and it’s not in my job description,’” said Brendan Steinhauser, who leads AI safety group The Alliance for Secure AI Action. “Of course he’s saying that, but they could do a unilateral disarmament or encourage the other labs to stop giving, and maybe it’d be just like pacing the frontier — maybe people could pace political giving.”
Former Democratic Rep. Brad Carson, who co-founded Public First, said he would be open to engaging in talks with Leading the Future about pacing or scaling back the industry’s political spending — but only if so-called AI “accelerationists” are serious about backing off. He called out Andreessen and Horowitz who have emerged as the biggest known spenders in this year’s midterm elections and were early investors in OpenAI.
“As long as these accelerationists have a desire to spend tens and tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, there is probably a need for a Public First,” said Carson, who also leads the nonprofit group Americans for Responsible Innovation. “So even if Brockman drops out, Andreessen and Horowitz can just drop another 50 million if they felt like it, and I wouldn’t want to be disarmed against that.”
Brendan Bordelon contributed to this report.
Former President Barack Obama will campaign in Detroit with Michigan Democrats later this month, giving the party a high-profile boost ahead of the start of the state’s early voting period.
Obama is set to join Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson and other candidates on Oct. 24, the state party announced Monday.
“It is my honor and privilege to announce that President @BarackObama is joining us on the trail in Detroit on Saturday, October 24,” El-Sayed wrote on social media. “Get. Ready.”
The event comes 10 days before Election Day, with Democrats defending an open Senate seat and the governor’s office.
El-Sayed faces Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state, faces Republican Rep. John James in the open governor’s race.
Since leaving the White House, Obama has remained one of the party’s most popular figures, both nationally and among the party grassroots. He has campaigned in past cycles, but he’s made few public stops on the trail this year.
He previously campaigned in Texas with Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico and gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa, and appeared in a campaign ad with Iowa Senate nominee Josh Turek.
The former president is also set to headline a Washington-area fundraiser Wednesday for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, his first with the party’s Senate campaign arm this election cycle.
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