Congress
5 reasons all eyes are on Tuesday’s elections in Florida and Wisconsin
Voters will head to the polls Tuesday in Wisconsin and Florida to decide two House seats and a state Supreme Court seat, races that have attracted immense spending and will be bellwether’s for the country’s political pulse in 2025.
With that in mind, Score is looking at a few key themes to decipher what tomorrow’s elections mean — and what they don’t — heading into the rest of the year.
The Musk effect
Elon Musk has played a key role in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between liberal candidate Susan Crawford and conservative candidate Brad Schimel — both as a target for Democrats in campaign ads and as a heavy financial backer for Republicans.
Which of those two will resonate more with voters? Tuesday may provide some answers.
Musk ramped up his efforts in Wisconsin in the final days — and also threw some cash behind Florida’s special election — as Republicans have faced a string of special election losses, including a shocker in Pennsylvania last week.
Despite some high-dollar donations backing Democrats from the likes of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and mega donor George Soros, no one is coming close to Musk. Two Musk-linked PACs have contributed a whopping $17 million in support of Brad Schimel, and Musk himself gave $3 million to the state Republican party.
Democrats have poured more into the race overall, though, putting nearly $40 million into television ads compared with $32 million from Republican groups, according to figures reported to AdImpact. Crawford’s campaign also outraised Schimel in the final stretch, raising $17 million compared to Schimel’s $7 million.
Democrats have used that to their advantage, cutting ads linking Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency to Schimel. A plane flying over Milwaukee on Thursday carried a banner reading “Go Home Elon. Vote Susan.”
This is Musk’s first major political test since helping bolster President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, where his America PAC spent hundreds of millions. And it’s also the first test for Democratic messaging against Musk, with the left using the race as a referendum against the world’s richest man and his campaign to slash government jobs and spending.
Can Democrats keep the momentum going?
Democrats have pulled off a couple big upsets so far this year in special elections. In state legislative races in Iowa and Pennsylvania, they flipped seats that Trump carried by double digits. And they’ve been able to hold seats in safe Democratic areas, too.
But Tuesday will be the biggest test yet. In a pair of Florida special elections for vacant congressional seats, Democrats Josh Weil and Gay Valimont have vastly outraised their Republican opponents, Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, despite the districts being viewed as safe by the GOP.
Republicans are particularly worried about Fine. An internal poll last week from Trump’s pollster — Tony Fabrizio — showed Fine down three points to Weil, who has raised more than $10 million.
Democrats are insisting that Republicans are “panicked” about the race, but it will still be an uphill battle to notch a win in either district.
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin recent polling has shown a statistically deadlocked race between Crawford and Schimel.
Eyes on the GOP’s House majority
Republicans will maintain their control of the House after Tuesday’s elections, even if Democrats pull off a miracle and flip both seats in Florida. Still, it’s a razor-thin margin, and any losses would be a thorn in the side of Speaker Mike Johnson, who is navigating the caucus through crucial policy fights.
On Thursday, Trump pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N. ambassador after he determined he didn’t “want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat,” showing that Republicans are starting to sweat their slim margins.
If Republicans are able to keep both seats on Tuesday, that gives Johnson and Trump just a bit more breathing room to pass their most ambitious priorities.
Is the Republican brand taking a hit?
Much has been written about Democrats’ brand problem, but if Republicans underperform — and members of their own party expect it — expect Democrats to rub it in. Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis already laid the blame at Fine’s feet last week.
“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance,” DeSantis told reporters. “They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of a specific candidate running in that race.”
The Republican candidate isn’t too worried though, telling POLITICO “We’re going to be fine.”
Democrats are already painting the specials as a reflection of voter attitude toward Trump, and as evidence that the party will make gains in the midterms.
“A few weeks ago, they were too scared to face voters at town halls. Now, they are so scared they can’t even face voters at the polls,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Courtney Rice, following Trump’s decision to yank Stefanik’s nomination. “Doesn’t bode particularly well for 2026.”
Voter turnout
As is the case with all special elections, voter turnout will prove crucial in all of the races.
In Wisconsin, early voting totals were poised to surpass 2023’s high-profile race, with in-person early voting already ahead of that race and absentee ballots not far behind. Two years ago, Janet Protasiewicz took the victory in that contest — which determined the ideological makeup of the court.
Trump participated in a tele-town hall for Fine and Patronis to help get out the vote in Florida with early voting underway. The Democratic National Committee is investing in some last-minute get out the vote work, too, though it didn’t specify a dollar amount.
So far, Republicans have an edge in early voter turnout, per Decision Desk HQ data.
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Congress
Trump’s revised SAVE America Act faces headwinds in the House
DORAL, Florida — President Donald Trump’s call for congressional action on an updated elections overhaul is facing serious doubts from senior House Republicans who aren’t convinced it can pass the chamber a third time.
Trump’s demand for a near-total ban on mail voting, in particular, remains an obstacle. When GOP leaders put a version of the SAVE America Act on the House floor last month, they left out that provision, bowing to some Republicans’ internal concerns.
Those dynamics have not changed, according to four people granted anonymity to describe internal conversations, even after Trump told Speaker Mike Johnson at the House Republican policy retreat Monday to draft a new version of the bill with the mail voting provision and other additions.
Several members pressed Johnson on the SAVE America Act during a question-and-answer session behind closed doors Tuesday morning. But he remained noncommittal about how Congress would pass it, according to three people in the room, and noted Senate Majority Leader John Thune has raised concerns about the legislation tying up the other chamber.
Asked if the House could pass a third version of the legislation, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said in a brief interview that Republicans would “be talking about that” during their closed-door meetings.
“I mean, obviously we passed the SAVE America Act, which is all of the things — you know, prove citizenship, show ID to vote — that’s over in the Senate, and there’s a lot of momentum building to get the Senate to move that bill to the president’s desk,” Scalise said.
“So I know that momentum is going to keep building,” he added. “Obviously, we’re talking these next few days about the remaining things we’re going to do this year.”
Congress
House Budget chair eyes more safety-net cuts for second megabill
DORAL, Florida — “Fraud prevention” in federal and state safety-net programs should be the main target of a new Republican reconciliation bill, House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington said in an interview Tuesday where he also called for reviving Medicaid spending cuts provisions that fell out of last year’s GOP megabill.
“The whole kit and caboodle of welfare is $1.6 trillion in our budget,” Arrington said on the sidelines of the House Republican policy retreat. “But it’s also not just welfare — it’s programs across the federal government that states need to be responsible [for].”
Arrington said Republicans needed to act after federal officials identified potentially billions of dollars of potential benefits fraud in Minnesota. But the suggestion of additional cuts to safety-net programs comes as House Republicans vulnerable in the upcoming midterms deal with the political fallout of the Medicaid and food-aid cuts enacted last year.
“I’m going to listen to everything,” said Rep. Rob Wittman, a Virginia Republican battling to keep a district that could be redrawn in Democrats’ favor. “I think we need to be very thoughtful about what we do and how we go about doing that.”
Arrington said he wanted to revisit several proposals to reduce Medicaid spending that did not end up complying with strict Senate rules for a filibuster-skirting budget package. He suggested Senate Republicans didn’t spend “a lot of time” last year reworking them to pass muster.
Arrington also said he wants to identify Pentagon spending cuts that would offset new investments President Donald Trump wants for the military — something that will likely trigger pushback from GOP defense hawks.
“I think there’s certainly waste at the Pentagon,” he said. “I think the president and his team want to retool it, modernize it, but there’s also going to be a capital investment associated with it. I just want to make sure that whatever we’re spending, we’re offsetting.”
While Speaker Mike Johnson has repeatedly promised GOP hard-liners he will push for a new reconciliation bill, he continues to face serious internal doubts — especially after Trump failed to mention it once in a nearly hourlong address to Republican lawmakers Monday.
A senior House Republican, granted anonymity to candidly discuss internal conversations, said lawmakers shouldn’t “kill themselves” to do one given Trump’s lack of interest. And a key committee chair remains publicly skeptical of the push, noting Tuesday the House GOP majority is even thinner than it was in July, when the megabill passed.
“I’d love to do a second reconciliation bill, but I’d also love to be Brad Pitt,” Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said. “It’s never going to happen.”
Congress
Capitol agenda: Trump’s Doral demands ripple through GOP
President Donald Trump’s demand that Congress pass an expanded version of the SAVE America Act is creating headaches for both chambers.
The president told House Republicans on Monday the sweeping GOP elections overhaul bill — with several key add-ons — should be their “No. 1 priority.” It’s upending their plans to discuss other premidterms priorities during the retreat Tuesday — and raising eyebrows among some senators back in Washington.
— How it’s playing in Doral: The House has passed two versions of the GOP elections bill already, but now the president wants to tack on limits to mail voting, a ban on transgender surgeries for minors and a prohibition on transgender women participating in women’s sports.
GOP leaders now have to drum up support from members reluctant to dive into the culture war of transgender politics when they’d prefer to focus on affordability. And the mail voting provision was left off the package last time for a reason.
Committee chairs will brief members Tuesday on their legislative priorities, including the possibility of a new reconciliation bill this year. But Trump made no mention of that possibility during his remarks Monday, which does not bode well for those seeking a second megabill.
Elected Republican leaders will then huddle privately at 4 p.m. to discuss paths forward. Expect Trump’s SAVE America demands to be a big part of the conversation.
The GOP leaders will also discuss how to pass a housing affordability package — though that, too, doesn’t appear to be a priority for Trump, who said Monday that Americans are demanding the election bill and “don’t talk about housing.”
— More trouble for Thune: Trump’s ultimatum further complicates matters in the Senate, where there the legislation is on the rocks even without the president’s new demands.
Several Republican senators signaled Monday they aren’t behind the president’s call to significantly limit mail-in ballots, touting the success of the practice in their own states.
“I don’t want the federal government telling me that I can’t have mail-in voting or absentee ballot voting,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters. “There’s nothing wrong with mail-in voting if you have the right standards in place.”
Trump also kept pressing on the “talking filibuster,” keeping that internal battle front and center for Majority Leader John Thune, who delivered a public reality check on the “complicated and risky” idea Monday.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), in a sign of how desperate some Republicans are to avoid a bruising internal filibuster fight, floated passing the SAVE America Act through reconciliation Monday, despite the lack of a clear budget connection.
“We have some clever wordsmiths,” Kennedy said.
What else we’re watching:
— Immigration policy hearings: Two Senate hearings Tuesday will put a spotlight on key immigration policy debates — birthright citizenship and so-called “sanctuary cities.”
Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) will host a 10:30 a.m. hearing on jurisdictions that do not cooperate with federal immigration enforcement; witnesses will include Chad Wolf, Trump’s former acting DHS secretary.
A Senate Judiciary panel will then hold a 2:30 p.m. hearing on “Protecting American Citizenship” as the Supreme Court mulls whether to void Trump’s effort to end automatic birthright citizenship for those born in the U.S.
— Race to replace MTG: It’s Election Day to fill the seat of Marjorie Taylor Greene, whose retirement from Congress in January narrowed an already thin Republican House majority. The bad news for the GOP: The race might drag on another month.
Seventeen candidates are on the ballot, including 12 Republicans. And because so many candidates filed, it’s possible no one emerges with the 50 percent required to win, leaving the seat open until after the potential April 7 runoff.
Hailey Fuchs and Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
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