Congress
5 reasons all eyes are on Tuesday’s elections in Florida and Wisconsin
Voters will head to the polls Tuesday in Wisconsin and Florida to decide two House seats and a state Supreme Court seat, races that have attracted immense spending and will be bellwether’s for the country’s political pulse in 2025.
With that in mind, Score is looking at a few key themes to decipher what tomorrow’s elections mean — and what they don’t — heading into the rest of the year.
The Musk effect
Elon Musk has played a key role in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between liberal candidate Susan Crawford and conservative candidate Brad Schimel — both as a target for Democrats in campaign ads and as a heavy financial backer for Republicans.
Which of those two will resonate more with voters? Tuesday may provide some answers.
Musk ramped up his efforts in Wisconsin in the final days — and also threw some cash behind Florida’s special election — as Republicans have faced a string of special election losses, including a shocker in Pennsylvania last week.
Despite some high-dollar donations backing Democrats from the likes of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and mega donor George Soros, no one is coming close to Musk. Two Musk-linked PACs have contributed a whopping $17 million in support of Brad Schimel, and Musk himself gave $3 million to the state Republican party.
Democrats have poured more into the race overall, though, putting nearly $40 million into television ads compared with $32 million from Republican groups, according to figures reported to AdImpact. Crawford’s campaign also outraised Schimel in the final stretch, raising $17 million compared to Schimel’s $7 million.
Democrats have used that to their advantage, cutting ads linking Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency to Schimel. A plane flying over Milwaukee on Thursday carried a banner reading “Go Home Elon. Vote Susan.”
This is Musk’s first major political test since helping bolster President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, where his America PAC spent hundreds of millions. And it’s also the first test for Democratic messaging against Musk, with the left using the race as a referendum against the world’s richest man and his campaign to slash government jobs and spending.
Can Democrats keep the momentum going?
Democrats have pulled off a couple big upsets so far this year in special elections. In state legislative races in Iowa and Pennsylvania, they flipped seats that Trump carried by double digits. And they’ve been able to hold seats in safe Democratic areas, too.
But Tuesday will be the biggest test yet. In a pair of Florida special elections for vacant congressional seats, Democrats Josh Weil and Gay Valimont have vastly outraised their Republican opponents, Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, despite the districts being viewed as safe by the GOP.
Republicans are particularly worried about Fine. An internal poll last week from Trump’s pollster — Tony Fabrizio — showed Fine down three points to Weil, who has raised more than $10 million.
Democrats are insisting that Republicans are “panicked” about the race, but it will still be an uphill battle to notch a win in either district.
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin recent polling has shown a statistically deadlocked race between Crawford and Schimel.
Eyes on the GOP’s House majority
Republicans will maintain their control of the House after Tuesday’s elections, even if Democrats pull off a miracle and flip both seats in Florida. Still, it’s a razor-thin margin, and any losses would be a thorn in the side of Speaker Mike Johnson, who is navigating the caucus through crucial policy fights.
On Thursday, Trump pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N. ambassador after he determined he didn’t “want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat,” showing that Republicans are starting to sweat their slim margins.
If Republicans are able to keep both seats on Tuesday, that gives Johnson and Trump just a bit more breathing room to pass their most ambitious priorities.
Is the Republican brand taking a hit?
Much has been written about Democrats’ brand problem, but if Republicans underperform — and members of their own party expect it — expect Democrats to rub it in. Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis already laid the blame at Fine’s feet last week.
“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance,” DeSantis told reporters. “They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of a specific candidate running in that race.”
The Republican candidate isn’t too worried though, telling POLITICO “We’re going to be fine.”
Democrats are already painting the specials as a reflection of voter attitude toward Trump, and as evidence that the party will make gains in the midterms.
“A few weeks ago, they were too scared to face voters at town halls. Now, they are so scared they can’t even face voters at the polls,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Courtney Rice, following Trump’s decision to yank Stefanik’s nomination. “Doesn’t bode particularly well for 2026.”
Voter turnout
As is the case with all special elections, voter turnout will prove crucial in all of the races.
In Wisconsin, early voting totals were poised to surpass 2023’s high-profile race, with in-person early voting already ahead of that race and absentee ballots not far behind. Two years ago, Janet Protasiewicz took the victory in that contest — which determined the ideological makeup of the court.
Trump participated in a tele-town hall for Fine and Patronis to help get out the vote in Florida with early voting underway. The Democratic National Committee is investing in some last-minute get out the vote work, too, though it didn’t specify a dollar amount.
So far, Republicans have an edge in early voter turnout, per Decision Desk HQ data.
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Congress
Capitol agenda: Trump’s Doral demands ripple through GOP
President Donald Trump’s demand that Congress pass an expanded version of the SAVE America Act is creating headaches for both chambers.
The president told House Republicans on Monday the sweeping GOP elections overhaul bill — with several key add-ons — should be their “No. 1 priority.” It’s upending their plans to discuss other premidterms priorities during the retreat Tuesday — and raising eyebrows among some senators back in Washington.
— How it’s playing in Doral: The House has passed two versions of the GOP elections bill already, but now the president wants to tack on limits to mail voting, a ban on transgender surgeries for minors and a prohibition on transgender women participating in women’s sports.
GOP leaders now have to drum up support from members reluctant to dive into the culture war of transgender politics when they’d prefer to focus on affordability. And the mail voting provision was left off the package last time for a reason.
Committee chairs will brief members Tuesday on their legislative priorities, including the possibility of a new reconciliation bill this year. But Trump made no mention of that possibility during his remarks Monday, which does not bode well for those seeking a second megabill.
Elected Republican leaders will then huddle privately at 4 p.m. to discuss paths forward. Expect Trump’s SAVE America demands to be a big part of the conversation.
The GOP leaders will also discuss how to pass a housing affordability package — though that, too, doesn’t appear to be a priority for Trump, who said Monday that Americans are demanding the election bill and “don’t talk about housing.”
— More trouble for Thune: Trump’s ultimatum further complicates matters in the Senate, where there the legislation is on the rocks even without the president’s new demands.
Several Republican senators signaled Monday they aren’t behind the president’s call to significantly limit mail-in ballots, touting the success of the practice in their own states.
“I don’t want the federal government telling me that I can’t have mail-in voting or absentee ballot voting,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters. “There’s nothing wrong with mail-in voting if you have the right standards in place.”
Trump also kept pressing on the “talking filibuster,” keeping that internal battle front and center for Majority Leader John Thune, who delivered a public reality check on the “complicated and risky” idea Monday.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), in a sign of how desperate some Republicans are to avoid a bruising internal filibuster fight, floated passing the SAVE America Act through reconciliation Monday, despite the lack of a clear budget connection.
“We have some clever wordsmiths,” Kennedy said.
What else we’re watching:
— Immigration policy hearings: Two Senate hearings Tuesday will put a spotlight on key immigration policy debates — birthright citizenship and so-called “sanctuary cities.”
Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) will host a 10:30 a.m. hearing on jurisdictions that do not cooperate with federal immigration enforcement; witnesses will include Chad Wolf, Trump’s former acting DHS secretary.
A Senate Judiciary panel will then hold a 2:30 p.m. hearing on “Protecting American Citizenship” as the Supreme Court mulls whether to void Trump’s effort to end automatic birthright citizenship for those born in the U.S.
— Race to replace MTG: It’s Election Day to fill the seat of Marjorie Taylor Greene, whose retirement from Congress in January narrowed an already thin Republican House majority. The bad news for the GOP: The race might drag on another month.
Seventeen candidates are on the ballot, including 12 Republicans. And because so many candidates filed, it’s possible no one emerges with the 50 percent required to win, leaving the seat open until after the potential April 7 runoff.
Hailey Fuchs and Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
Congress
SAVE America Act is ‘No. 1 priority,’ Trump tells Republicans
DORAL, Florida — President Donald Trump told House Republicans Monday to pass a major partisan elections bill a third time with new provisions, saying it should be the GOP’s “No. 1 priority” ahead of the midterm elections.
“It will guarantee the midterms,” Trump told lawmakers gathered at his golf resort. “If you don’t get it, big trouble, my opinion.”
The president spent 13 minutes at the close of a nearly hourlong address making crystal-clear he expects Speaker Mike Johnson and other top leaders to meet his demands. The House has already two passed versions of what is now called the “SAVE America Act” that would institute tough new citizenship and photo ID requirements for voting.
But Trump asked the gathered lawmakers to add in provisions curbing mail voting and targeting transgender rights — even it means abandoning the remainder of their legislative agenda before the November elections.
“Let’s go for the gold,” he said. “It’s actually a matter in a serious way of national survival. We can’t have these elections going on like this anymore.”
The already passed version of the SAVE America Act is awaiting a Senate vote. Majority Leader John Thune has committed to calling it up, but it is certain to be blocked by Democrats under the chamber’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.
Some conservatives, with Trump’s backing are looking to sidestep that obstacle with a “talking filibuster” that would force Democrats to hold the floor. Thune and other Senate Republicans are skeptical it would work without a rules change, but Trump said Monday failure was not an option.
“They have to get it done,” he said of the Senate. “If it takes you six months — I’m for not approving anything. … I don’t think we should approve anything until this is approved.”
Trump also endorsed a push by some House Republican hard-liners to attach a must-pass spy powers extension to the SAVE America legislation in a bid to pass both together — creating a nightmare for House GOP leaders who already face obstacles passing either bill.
He cast the voting and transgender provisions as proven political winners that Democrats would be hard-pressed to oppose, even though they have so far stayed almost entirely united against the legislation.
“That should be the easiest thing to get passed that you’ve ever had,” Trump said. “Those are best of Trump. This is the No. 1 priority, it should be, for the House.”
Congress
Rising energy prices threaten cornerstone of GOP midterm pitch
DORAL, Florida — The economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran is imperiling the GOP’s legislative sales pitch ahead of the midterms, with energy price spikes threatening at least some of the pocketbook gains Americans are seeing from the sweeping tax cuts Republicans enacted last year.
Analysts with the Wall Street advisory and investment firm Evercore ISI estimated Monday that the impact on household costs attributable to the current crisis could erase the tax benefits from the “big, beautiful bill” for at least the bottom 30 percent of Americans — even if oil prices come off their $100-plus-per-barrel highs.
Some top Republicans acknowledged rising energy prices are cause for political concern.
“The price of gas is always kind of a benchmark,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Capitol Hill Monday. “I do think the fact that we’ve increased our supply here domestically will help ease it, but it’s something obviously we’ve got to pay attention to. And hopefully the operations in Iran … won’t be an extended situation.”
The impact of higher gas prices is hitting just as House Republicans gather for their annual policy retreat at Trump’s resort in Doral, Florida. The evidence could be seen just outside the gates, where regular gas was retailing at multiple stations for $3.59 per gallon — up about 70 cents from the Miami-area average on Jan. 1, according to GasBuddy.com.
The hope among Republicans gathered at the resort is that the crisis is short-lived, with several saying they believed Trump’s assurances that the supply bottlenecks caused by Iran’s effective blockade of the Persian Gulf would soon ease.
“I believe there’s a lot of emotion built into energy prices,” Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) said in an interview. “I would look for things to settle down very soon.”
But other Republicans granted anonymity to speak candidly expressed real alarm as crude oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel overnight before settling later in the day below $90 — still about 30 percent above recent lows.
“If you are a Republican and not concerned right now, you are stupid,” one House Republican said, adding, “Hopefully, we will square this away sooner than later.”
Another House Republican, asked if the wartime crisis threatened to overshadow the benefits of the GOP megabill, replied, “Hell yes.”
“The most sensitive thing amongst most driving Americans is the price of gasoline,” the person added, saying it threatens to send Americans “right up the wall.”
Trump is scheduled to address lawmakers in Doral shortly after markets close Monday, and they will be listening closely to his message on the hostilities in the Middle East and his plans to address high energy prices. He has announced plans to get oil shipments moving through the Gulf again, including by providing naval escorts for tankers and backstopping insurance for vessels.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement that oil prices will “drop dramatically once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.”
“President Trump and his entire energy team have had a strong game plan to keep the energy markets stable well before Operation Epic Fury began, and they will continue to review all credible options,” she said.
But the president so far has shown little interest in pushing his party to foremost focus on legislation tackling affordability, as some of his political aides have advised. Instead, Trump is pressing Senate Republicans to pass a sweeping GOP elections overhaul bill — adding on demands for a near-complete ban on mail voting and unrelated policy provisions like banning transgender surgeries for minors.
Hours before taking the stage in front of House Republicans at his Florida resort, he reiterated his request.
Even before the oil price shock, Trump’s agenda had come with a hefty price tag for consumers. Analysts at the Tax Foundation have already determined that the president’s trade policies cost Americans $1,000 on average last year, matching the average size of refund checks that Trump officials say will ease cost-of-living concerns.
The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs, but those that remain are projected to cost households $600 on average this year, according to the nonpartisan think tank.
House Republican leaders are hoping to keep the annual policy retreat focused on their legislative priorities ahead of the midterms. Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan, the GOP Conference chair, said ahead of the retreat she hoped to firm up the party’s messaging around last year’s megabill.
But going into the Doral resort Monday, members were trained on all the reasons they hoped the politically perilous price spike would be short-lived.
House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) said in an interview that reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz “would be even better for energy prices, although we’re seeing obviously a peak right now with the war going on.”
Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) said the supply crunch was “not an existential threat to us because of all the things we’ve done to make ourselves self reliant in terms of energy resources,” while acknowledging the “fungible” nature of the global oil market. He was hopeful about more ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) said in an interview a “short-term gas price hike is … not what’s important.”
“What’s important is the long term benefits of having a peaceful Iran that means that gas prices will drop dramatically for the long term,” he said. “I’m not that concerned about it.”
Sam Sutton contributed to this report.
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