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4 ways China-US relations could fracture in 2026

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The message from Capitol Hill on both sides of the aisle is clear: Get ready for U.S. relations with China to spiral all over again in the new year.

The one-year trade truce brokered in October between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is already looking shaky. And lawmakers are preparing to reup clashes over trade, Taiwan and cyber-intrusions when they return in January.

It’s like a heavyweight fight, and we’re in that short time period in-between rounds, but both sides need to be preparing for what is next after the truce,” Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), a member of the House Select Committee on China, said in an interview.

Blue Light News talked to more than 25 lawmakers, including those on the House Select Committee on China, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s East Asia subcommittee and the Congressional Executive Commission on China, for their views on the durability of the trade treaty. Both Republicans and Democrats warned of turbulence ahead.

More than 20 of the lawmakers said they doubt Xi will deliver on key pledges the White House said he made in October, including reducing the flow of precursor chemicals to Mexico that cartels process into fentanyl and buying agreed volumes of U.S. agricultural goods.

“China can never be trusted. They’re always looking for an angle,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said.

That pessimism comes despite an easing in U.S.-China tensions since the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. The bruising cycle of tit-for-tat tariffs that briefly hit triple digits earlier this year is currently on pause. Both countries have relaxed export restrictions on essential items (rare earths for the U.S, chip design software for China), while Beijing has committed to “expanding agricultural product trade” in an apparent reference to the suspension of imports of U.S. agricultural products it imposed earlier this year.

This trend may continue, given that Trump is likely to want stability in the U.S.-China relationship ahead of a summit with Xi planned for April in Beijing. “We’re starting to see some movement now on some of their tariff issues and the fentanyl precursor issue,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said.

But a series of issues have been brushed aside in negotiations or left in limbo — a status quo the Trump administration can only maintain for so long. The U.S.-China trade deal on rare earths that Bessent said the two countries would finalize by Thanksgiving remains unsettled. And the White House hasn’t confirmed reporting from earlier this month that Beijing-based ByteDance has finalized the sale of the TikTok social media app ahead of the Jan. 23 deadline for that agreement.

“The idea that we’re in a period of stability with Beijing is simply not accurate,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Shaheen has been sounding the alarm on China’s national security threats since she entered the Senate in 2009. But even some lawmakers who have been more open to engagement with Beijing — such as California Democratic Reps. Ro Khanna and Ami Bera — said that they don’t expect the armistice to last.

The White House is more upbeat about the prospects for U.S.-China trade ties.

“President Trump’s close relationship with President Xi is helping ensure that both countries are able to continue building on progress and continue resolving outstanding issues,” the White House said in a statement, adding that the administration “continues to monitor China’s compliance with our trade agreement.” It declined to comment on the TikTok deal.

Still, the lawmakers Blue Light News spoke with described four issues that could derail U.S.-China ties in the New Year:

A soybean spoiler

U.S. soybean farmers’ reliance on the Chinese market gives Beijing a powerful non-tariff trade weapon — and China doesn’t appear to be following through on promises to renew purchases.

The standoff over soybeans started in May, when China halted those purchases, raising the prospect of financial ruin across farming states including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana — key political constituencies for the GOP in the congressional midterm elections next year.

The White House said last month that Xi committed to buying 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in November and December. But so far, Beijing has only purchased a fraction of that agreed total, NBC reported this month.

“What agitates Trump and causes him to react quickly are things that are more domestic and closer to home,” Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii) said. China’s foot-dragging on soybean purchases “is the most triggering because it’s hurting American farmers and consumers, so that’s where we could see the most volatility in the relationship,” she said.

That trigger could come on Feb. 28 — the new deadline for that 12 million metric ton purchase, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced earlier this month.

The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment on whether Beijing plans to meet this deadline.

The White House said one of the aspects of the trade deal it is monitoring is soybean purchases through this growing season.

The Taiwan tinderbox

Beijing’s threats to invade Taiwan are another near-term potential flashpoint, even though the U.S. hasn’t prioritized the issue in its national security strategy or talks between Xi and Trump.

China has increased its preparations for a Taiwan invasion this year. In October, the Chinese military debuted a new military barge system that addresses some of the challenges of landing on the island’s beaches by deploying a bridge for cargo ships to unload tanks or trucks directly onto the shore.

“China is tightening the noose around the island,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who joined a bipartisan congressional delegation to China in September and returned calling for better communications between the U.S. and Chinese militaries.

Some of the tension around Taiwan is playing out in the wider region, as Beijing pushes to expand its military reach and its influence. Chinese fighter jets locked radar — a prelude to opening fire — on Japanese aircraft earlier this month in the East China Sea.

“There is a real chance that Xi overplays his hand on antagonizing our allies, particularly Australia and Japan,” Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) said. “There is still a line [China] cannot cross without making this truce impossible to sustain.”

The U.S. has a decades-long policy of “strategic ambiguity” under which it refuses to spell out how the U.S. would respond to Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Trump has also adhered to that policy. “You’ll find out if it happens,” Trump said in an interview with 60 Minutes in November.

More export restrictions on the way

Beijing has eased its export restrictions on rare earths — metallic elements essential to both civilian and military applications — but could reimpose those blocks at any time.

Ten of the 25 lawmakers who spoke to Blue Light News said they suspect Beijing will reimpose those export curbs as a convenient pressure point in the coming months.

“At the center of the crack in the truce is China’s ability to levy export restrictions, especially its chokehold on the global supply of rare earths and other critical minerals,” Rep. André Carson (D-Ind.) said.

Others are worried China will choose to expand its export controls to another product category for which it has market dominance — pharmaceuticals. Beijing supplies 80 percent of the U.S. supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients — the foundations of common drugs to treat everything from high blood pressure to type 2 diabetes.

“Overnight, China could turn off the spigot and many basic pharmaceuticals, including things like aspirin, go away from the supply chain in the United States,” Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas) said.

China restarted exports of rare earths earlier this month, and its Commerce Ministry pledged “timely approval” of such exports under a new licensing system, state media reported. Beijing has not indicated its intent to restrict the export of pharmaceuticals or their components as a trade weapon. But the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission urged the Food and Drug Administration to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese sources of pharmaceuticals in its annual report last month.

The Chinese embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Growing Chinese military muscle

China’s drive to develop a world-class military that can challenge traditional U.S. dominion of the Indo-Pacific could also derail relations between Washington and Beijing in 2026.

China’s expanding navy— which, at more than 200 warships, is now the world’s largest — is helping Beijing show off its power across the region.

The centerpiece of that effort in 2025 has been the addition of a third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which entered into service last month. The Fujian is two-thirds the size of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. But like the Ford, it boasts state-of-the-art electromagnetic catapults to launch J-35 and J-15T fighter jets.

The Trump administration sees that as a threat.

The U.S. aims to insulate allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific from possible Chinese “sustained successful military aggression” powered by Beijing’s “historic military buildup,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this month at the Reagan National Defense Forum.

Five lawmakers said they see China’s increasingly aggressive regional military footprint as incompatible with U.S. efforts to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing in the months ahead.

“We know the long-term goal of China is really economic and diplomatic and military domination around the world, and they see the United States as an adversary,” Moran said.

Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.

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Congress

Trump’s iron grip on Congress slips

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A cadre of congressional Republicans dealt President Donald Trump significant defeats Thursday — a series of rebukes that demonstrate how his iron grip on Capitol Hill has weakened at the start of a critical election year.

The defiance kicked off in the Senate with a stunning vote, backed by five GOP senators, to move ahead with a measure that would constrain Trump on a matter he has presented as a signature triumph — his military intervention in Venezuela. Later in the day, 17 House Republicans joined with Democrats to rescue Obamacare subsidies Trump has repeatedly railed against.

And in a surprise move, senators of both parties agreed unanimously to erect a plaque honoring the officers who fought the mob at the Capitol on Jan, 6, 2021 — breaking from Trump’s false narrative about that day.

Trump took notice of the disloyalty in the first instance. Almost immediately, he shot off a social media post accusing the five Republicans of “attempting to take away our Powers to fight and defend the United States of America” and declaring that they “should never be elected to office again.”

None of the Republicans who voted crosswise with the White House Thursday said they intended to deal a personal brushback to Trump. But several said they were determined to assert congressional authority that many on Capitol Hill fear has withered over the past year.

Sen. Todd Young of Indiana insisted “any future commitment of U.S. forces in Venezuela must be subject to debate and authorization in Congress.”

“President Trump campaigned against forever wars, and I strongly support him in that position,” Young said in a statement. “A drawn-out campaign in Venezuela involving the American military, even if unintended, would be the opposite of President Trump’s goal of ending foreign entanglements.”

Speaking at the White House after the Senate vote, Vice President JD Vance rejected the notion that Trump’s grip on Congress was slipping, saying the GOP opposition was “based more on a legal technicality than any disagreement on policy.”

But the internal GOP dissent came to the delight of Democratic leaders, who are growing jubilant over their ability to highlight the splits and hammer Republicans heading into the midterms.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters “Republicans need to get their act together in terms of their leadership,” saying the party had been badly distracted from addressing Americans’ cost-of-living concerns.

After the war powers vote, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer hailed it as “a critical step” for the chamber in “reasserting its constitutional authority” and pushing back on an imperious president.

Still, there were signs that Trump’s sway over the GOP had not entirely eroded.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), while voting to constrain Trump’s war powers, downplayed the break and reiterated multiple times that he supports the president.

“I don’t take any offense to that,” he said about Trump’s suggestion that he should not be reelected. “I think the president is great. I love the president. … I understand he’s ticked.”

And in a particularly stark demonstration of Trump’s continued sway over the House GOP, most Republicans in the chamber voted with him Thursday to sustain his veto of two bills they had allowed to pass unanimously just weeks before.

One bill benefited the Miccosukee Tribe of Florida, which opposed his administration’s attempt to build a vast migrant detention center in the Everglades. Another authorized a water project backed by Colorado politicians who have clashed with Trump, including Democratic Gov. Jared Polis and GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert.

“I am disappointed to see the lack of leadership, the amount of people that will fold, that will cave, that will not take a stand,” Boebert said after the vote. “This had nothing to do with policy. … Folks are afraid of getting a mean tweet or attacked.”

Some House Republicans who opposed the veto override cited White House officials who circled the chamber as the votes unfolded. It was clear they were taking note of the defectors, one GOP lawmaker said. Trump going nuclear on the five Republican senators who had defied him earlier in the day helped convince others to not stick their neck out.

“It wasn’t worth it,” another House Republican said. “It’s not my bill.”

Still, 35 Republicans broke ranks with Trump on the Colorado project while 24 did so on the tribal bill. Two committee chairs voted to override both vetoes.

Later in the day, a critical mass of House Republicans sent an incontrovertible message on an issue much more central to the GOP’s midterm prospects than expanding a tribal reservation — addressing health care costs.

Seventeen GOP members joined with Democrats to pass a bill that would revive lapsed Obamacare tax credits for three years. Trump, with the encouragement of Republican leaders on Capitol Hill, has refused to engage in bipartisan negotiations — instead slamming the subsidies as wasteful and calling on lawmakers to set up an alternate system where Americans get direct payments to help afford coverage.

But multiple Republicans, while still blaming Democrats for the morass, said Thursday they were not willing to stand by and do nothing amid the standoff. The expired subsidies were used by more than 20 million Americans, lowering their premiums in many cases by thousands of dollars per year.

“I have a bunch of my constituents that are depending on these programs, and I’m not going to leave them hanging because the Democrats broke the damn system,” said GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who represents a swing Wisconsin district and referred to the bill as a “bridging mechanism.”

Asked if his vote could be seen as a rebuke of Trump, Van Orden said he “didn’t even think of it like that.”

Republicans were similarly roundabout when it came to the Senate’s action Thursday to display the contentious Jan. 6 plaque, which was created pursuant to a 2022 law but has remained in storage as Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to install it.

But the timing spoke volumes, coming two days after the fifth anniversary of the Capitol attack and the White House publication of a website casting the riot as the fault of Democrats and the Capitol Police itself.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), without mentioning Trump, said the plaque was a commemoration of “what I would consider to be one of the most significant stress tests for this institution since it was founded.”

“It was a great day for democracy because of the law enforcement officers,” he said. “We took a brief recess, we got ourselves together, the Capitol was secured and before we left the compound we came back and completed our constitutional duty” to certify the 2020 election.

Meanwhile, the fallout of the war powers vote is likely to continue. Thursday’s vote sets up final consideration of the resolution next week, where Trump’s commitment to an “America First” foreign policy will be debated. In addition to the pushback on his plans for Venezuela, many Republicans aired deep misgivings this week about his overt attempts to seize control of Greenland, a Danish territory.

The House is on track to take up a similar vote later this month after Democrats introduced a companion measure Thursday and expressed cautious optimism that more Republicans might vote to constrain the president.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said he was already “inclined” to support the war powers resolution after hearing from top administration officials in briefings this week and after hearing about Trump’s threats against Greenland. But he said the president’s attack on the five GOP senators Thursday cemented his position.

“Reading the ugly response to those senators sort of convinced me to vote yes,” he said.

Mia McCarthy and Calen Razor contributed to this report.

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Senate unanimously approves installing Jan. 6, 2021 plaque

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The Senate unanimously approved a measure Thursday to display an existing plaque honoring the officers who protected the Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021 riot.

Congress passed a law in March 2022 mandating the plaque, but years later it has yet to be installed. Speaker Mike Johnson has argued the project is “not implementable,” and the Justice Department has maintained in litigation that an existing plaque does not comply with the law because it lists the departments who responded, not the individual officers.

The measure on Thursday, led by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), sought to address the long-running political squabble.

“On January 6, 2021, courageous law enforcement officers from the United States Capitol Police and other agencies risked their lives to defend the United States Capitol and protect Members of Congress and their staff,” Tillis said in a statement. “Prominently displaying this plaque in the United States Senate ensures their heroism and sacrifice are properly recognized.”

It’s not clear when the Senate will install the plaque, which will remain in the Senate until a permanent location is identified on the west front of the Capitol. The resolution does not need to be approved by the House.

The stark moment of bipartisanship came just after the 5-year anniversary of the Capitol attack was marred by political bickering. The White House published a website to rebut the narrative of the riot filled largely with false information, and Republicans continued to villainize the previous Democratic-led Jan. 6 committee that investigated the attack in its aftermath.

At the beginning of his second term, Trump, who has repeatedly downplayed and mischaracterized the attack, pardoned those who took part in the riot, including some convicted of violent offenses.

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Congress

17 Republicans vote to restore lapsed Obamacare subsidies

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Seventeen Republicans joined Democrats in passing legislation Thursday that would revive enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years, rebuffing opposition from GOP leadership.

The 230-196 vote follows a procedural vote Wednesday to advance the bill, where nine Republicans joined Democrats in favor of moving forward.

Thursday’s final passage vote had eight additional Republicans supporting the bill, including House Homeland Security Chair Andrew Garbarino of New York and Rep. David Joyce of Ohio, a senior appropriator.

While the measure is destined to die in the Senate, some Republicans hope it will lay the groundwork for a bipartisan agreement to tame skyrocketing health insurance premiums — the result of Congress allowing the tax credits to lapse Dec. 31.

“The Senate could put together a product that could ultimately get sent back over to the House that we can then conference on and hopefully move across the finish line,” said Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), who supported the Democratic-led bill.

A bipartisan group of senators are scrambling to make headway on a framework that could extend the credits while instituting new income caps for eligibility and lengthening the ACA open enrollment period to soften the blow of premium hikes.

The lawmakers continue to project optimism about reaching a deal, though thorny issues remain over how to address the so-called Hyde amendment, which restricts federal funding for abortion.

Democrats, meanwhile, hope the House vote will pressure Republican leaders in both chambers to compromise on the issue. At a news conference Thursday morning, House and Senate Minority Leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer blasted Republicans for repeatedly refusing to back a clean extension before the subsidies expired last year.

“The American people should ask [Senate Majority Leader John Thune], ‘Are you willing to put this bill that the House now is moving forward on the floor of the Senate?’” Schumer said. “Most of the Republicans in the House and the Senate want to put poison pill riders about abortion on it. They are standing in the way.”

Jeffries is now especially emboldened, having made the calculation last fall that enough centrist Republicans would join Democrats in supporting a discharge petition to circumvent their own leadership and force a vote on three-year extension legislation.

“It’s an all-hands-on-deck effort that Democrats are committed to, to make sure we lower the high cost of living,” said Jeffries. “We’ll see what Republicans are willing to do to keep their word that they promised to lower the high cost of living in America.”

The question of whether to extend the enhanced subsidies, which were established in a 2021 Covid relief package under a Democratic majority, has been one of the most divisive policy issues of the 119th Congress.

Republican moderates started raising alarms early in the fall that their constituents were staring down massive premium spikes in 2026 due to the looming expiration of the subsidies. But they quickly encountered strong headwinds from conservatives who lambasted the credits as rife with fraud and giveaways to insurance companies — a message that has been echoed by Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise.

Johnson’s office, in a last-ditch effort Thursday morning to undermine the effort, blasted out a memo accusing “Democrats [of] want[ing] to expand a COVID subsidy system already flagged for massive fraud and abuse, with absolutely zero reforms.”

Many Republicans also chafed at the prospect of voting to bolster Obamacare — which they have sought unsuccessfully to repeal dozens of times since its passage in 2010 — and demanded restrictions be put in place to bar the tax credits from going to plans that cover abortion services using separate funding, a nonstarter for Democrats.

The GOP moderates attempted to secure a deal with Johnson last fall to secure a floor vote to extend the subsidies as an amendment to a Republican-authored bill intended to lower health care costs, but talks broke down. It led four Republicans to agree to help Democrats get the requisite 218 signatures on their discharge petition to force a vote on the three-year extension bill.

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