Congress
15 years into Obamacare, the GOP health care message is as muddled as ever
With key Obamacare tax credits set to expire within weeks, Democrats have unified behind a simple message: extend the subsidies and keep health insurance premiums from spiking for more than 20 million Americans.
Republicans, meanwhile, have engaged in a wide-ranging blame game while scrambling to coalesce behind an easily digestible plan to lower health care costs. That struggle comes to a head this week as House leaders move to put what they hope will be a consensus GOP plan up for a vote.
House Republican leaders chose a narrow set of proposals to include in that plan, arguing they lacked broad agreement for a more comprehensive undertaking as they seek to satisfy competing GOP factions, including vulnerable Republicans who’ve argued they will lose their seats if the Affordable Care Act subsidies aren’t extended.
The upshot is that there is no clear, unified GOP message on health care going into the year-end deadline when the tax credits expire — and no guarantee that Republicans will be able to pass anything this week to address the loss of beefed-up subsidies instituted under former President Joe Biden.
“I expect people are going to have an opportunity to vote their conscience and then go defend their votes back home like we always do,” House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told reporters about the GOP’s health care strategy.
Across the Capitol, there are already clear signs of unease. While Senate Republicans mostly united behind a plan that would expand health savings accounts as an alternative, four GOP senators crossed party lines to advance a Democratic proposal that would simply extend the Obamacare subsidies for three years.
Now rank-and-file Republicans in both chambers are privately strategizing about how to pull off an unlikely 11th-hour deal to avert a health care price shock that has triggered significant anxiety throughout the party about the political blowback they could face in the 2026 midterms. House GOP moderates negotiated an amendment vote that could tack a subsidy extension onto the leadership-backed health bill, but that vote is expected to fail and only serve as political cover for the vulnerable House Republicans.
That’s because top GOP leaders have resisted scrambling a 15-year-old message their party has been loath to abandon: Obamacare is a costly disaster, and Americans need better options.
“There’s a couple of [issues] that split our conference — that’s one of them,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said last week.
The dissonance within the GOP ranks comes as Democrats remain confident their push to preserve the status quo will resonate with voters — especially after making it a central focus of the shutdown fight that ended last month.
Party leaders have managed to keep Democrats largely unified behind a three-year extension of the expiring subsidies. Every Senate Democrat voted to advance that proposal Thursday. In the House, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has managed so far to keep the vast majority of his members from endorsing compromise extension proposals that purple-district Republicans have introduced.
“Our message is simple: Republicans have created a health care crisis for American families who are seeing their health insurance rise by 100 to 300 percent, and the solution has been in front of us for a while,” said Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), chair of the centrist New Democrats.
President Donald Trump, the GOP’s master of viral messaging, has not been especially helpful when it comes to health care. Trump has repeatedly referred to Obamacare as a “disaster” and railed against insurance companies who collect the federal subsidies — echoing a favorite conservative talking point.
But he has yet to lay out a specific alternative beyond giving “money to the people” directly to buy health care. Trump gave a nod to the issue during the annual Congressional Ball at the White House Thursday, addressing “Democrats” in the room: “We’re going to start working together on health care. I really predict that.”
While some of the Republicans present took the comments to mean Trump might be open to striking a so-far elusive health care deal in January, many Democrats doubt he will be willing to come to the table and extend a framework he has railed against for a decade. Moreover, the party is preparing to use the issue — and Trump’s refusal to engage — to hammer Republicans in the midterms as they show vulnerability on cost-of-living concerns.
“He doesn’t understand the hell that people are going through as they prepare to pay these hugely high health care costs,” said Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, a member of Senate Democratic leadership.
On Capitol Hill this week, familiar divides are likely to play out as Republicans come to terms with the impending expiration of the subsidies, which will mean a much smaller swath of Americans will be eligible for tax credits. The Congressional Budget Office projects millions will choose to drop their coverage rather than pay higher premiums.
Already concerns about political blowback forced House GOP leaders to backtrack from their initial strategy of simply allowing the Obamacare subsidies to expire. As part of their efforts to pass a package of measures meant to erode insurance regulations enacted in the ACA, “the process will allow” for an amendment vote on extending the subsidies, a Republican leadership aide said Friday.
But that has rankled conservatives who have publicly criticized those Republicans who are supporting an extension, and top party leaders do not expect the amendment will be adopted.
“My Democratic colleagues broke health care, and now they are down here saying we must give more money to insurance companies,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said Friday on the House floor, “and any Republican who goes along with that needs to answer for doing the same thing.”
Republicans have health care plans, he added, but “what we don’t have is the backbone and the will power to stand up and deliver.”
Scores of Roy’s colleagues, however, have taken a more nuanced view — that even though they share concerns about the cost of the subsidies and the legacy of Obamacare, they are frustrated their party appears to be confronting the issue only at the last minute with family budgets at stake for thousands of their constituents.
Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) said last week he wasn’t completely happy with the situation and that Republicans “need to move this along.”
“A lot of people are receiving this health care — they don’t need the rug pulled out from under them,” Meuser said. “Definitely should have been done a ways back, we could say, because of the shutdown. But we’ve got to do everything we can and then do more. “I don’t see how we just leave things in limbo,” he added.
Congress
Democrats’ affordability message collides with calls to defend transgender rights
Some Democrats are fired up to use their potential majorities in Congress next year and undo President Donald Trump’s attacks on transgender Americans. Others just want to focus on the cost of gas.
Ahead of the midterms, progressive lawmakers and congressional candidates are clashing with moderates in office and on the campaign trail over whether to pursue a legislative agenda that includes protecting trans people — whose health care, participation in athletics and protections against discrimination have been targeted by the administration.
“We need to have an affirmative platform that protects and expands rights for LGBTQ people,” said Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Ed Markey in an interview.
He is among nearly a dozen lawmakers and advocates who said they want Democrats to pursue a two-pronged approach: pass legislation to codify certain rights for trans individuals, and use committee gavels to compel public testimony from Trump officials on their efforts to undermine protections for trans and nonbinary people.
But the need to tackle affordability, not culture war fights, has been the overriding theme of the Democrats’ push to retake control of Congress. Many Democrats believe that their promise to lower the cost of living will be the reason they win back majorities in the House or the Senate.
Many centrists fear any pivot away from that pledge would splinter a new Democratic majority on Capitol Hill, especially with some candidates openly rejecting some trans rights initiatives during their campaigns.
“You have to focus on what people care about,” Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said in an interview. “Right now that’s affordability, and they want some relief. That’s what we should talk about.”
Rep. Marc Veasey, a moderate Texas Democrat who is retiring this year, said “cultural issues” including transgender rights are “something we should dive into once [Trump] is gone.”
“The American public is going to want to see our caucus focus on costs as long as he continues to affect the markets negatively with his tariffs and wars,” he said.
Progressive advocacy groups and their Hill allies say they can’t wait. Democrats, they argue, should hold hearings on the DOJ’s decision last summer to subpoena more than 20 doctors and clinics who’ve provided gender-affirming care to obtain potentially patient-identifying information, advocates say, leading some hospitals to stop providing youth gender affirming care.
They also want Democrats to challenge the Education Department’s move last month to officially rescind anti-discrimination protections for transgender students instituted under former President Joe Biden. They’re pushing, too, for an investigation of the Justice Department’s restrictions on gender-affirming care for incarcerated people and policy against placing prisoners in populations consistent with their gender identity — a move which has faced legal challenges.
In terms of legislation, Democrats are sure to encounter limitations so long as long as Trump is in office. The president is opposed to the cornerstone piece of LGBTQ+ advocates’ agenda, the Equality Act, which would amend civil rights laws to explicitly prohibit gender identity discrimination. It might not even have the votes to overcome a Senate filibuster and get to Trump’s desk.
Democrats likewise are sure to run into resistance in trying to attach pro-transgender policies to must-pass legislative vehicles, such as government spending bills or the annual defense policy package. The same goes for any attempts to overrule or modify the administration’s suggested changes to the 2030 Census, which include a proposal to remove questions about sexual orientation.
That reality should not be a deterrent, argued Ramiro Sarmiento, national press secretary at the Human Rights Campaign, a pro-LGBTQ+ civil rights advocacy group.
“Congress needs to use every tool it has to push back against the dismantling of protections at the federal level,” said Sarmiento.
He, along with Ian Thompson, senior legislative advocate at the ACLU, and Tyler Hack, founder and executive director of the Christopher Street Project — a hybrid PAC and nonprofit focused on building support for transgender rights in Congress — said their organizations have already begun preliminary conversations with several Democrats about the moves they could make to reverse or combat anti-trans-rights initiatives by Trump administration.
Those Democrats include longstanding LGBTQ+ rights champions like Markey and Reps. Jamie Raskin of Maryland and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, plus progressive candidates like Minnesota’s Peggy Flanagan and New York’s Claire Valdez and Brad Lander.
Hack conceded that trans protection issues are not what “most Americans are thinking about” but added, “Unfortunately, they are the issues that the White House is thinking about, and it’s the responsibility of Congress to be a check on their powers.”
The advocates say Trump’s executive orders and the GOP agenda have had drastic impacts on transgender Americans and their families, including by limiting their access to health care and identification documents that reflect their gender identity. It’s led some families with trans children to make plans to leave the country.
“I believe our role in Congress is to stand up for the little guys who are being picked on by bullies like Donald Trump and the Republicans,” Markey said about Democrats’ obligations.
They’re going up against Democrats who want nothing to do with any transgender-related fight as Republicans pummel their party for being out of touch and “woke.” GOP ads in nearly every battleground race have targeted their Democratic opponents over their party’s support for trans rights.
That has prompted numerous Democrats to run rebuttal ads, such as veteran Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s recent spot stating “boys should not play in girls’ sports.”
Alaska Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola told voters at a recent campaign event her “hope is that we don’t have to spend one second on a conversation about trans anything” in the next Congress, according to a Washington Sun report.
One senior House Democrat, who was granted anonymity to discuss a private conversation, recalled personally asking Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries not to focus on trans issues or other culture war flashpoints if the party wins the House.
Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer did not respond to requests for comment on their plans for tackling trans-related issues in the coming Congress.
Advocates argue that issues of gender identity and equality are, in fact, pocketbook issues and cannot be simply shunted aside.
“When you are putting in place, for example, policies that say that you can’t get a driver’s license that accurately reflects who you are, or that you can’t use a public restroom, what you are telling people is they can’t work, they can’t hold a job or participate in the public life of our country,” the ACLU’s Thompson said. “Those have very significant economic consequences.”
Several senior House Democrats — Minority Whip Katherine Clark, the No. 2 leader, Rep. Ted Lieu of California, the No. 4 leader, and Rep. Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, the top Rules Committee Democrat — said much the same in interviews.
“If we are telling people that we no longer value equality in this country, it’s really hard to build a fair economy,” Clark said. “You can’t silo these issues out.”
Riley Rogerson and Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
Congress
Ralph Norman under pressure from fellow South Carolina Republicans to campaign for Darline Graham
Rep. Russell Fry says fellow South Carolina Republican Rep. Ralph Norman should be doing more to help GOP Sen. Darline Graham win election to a full term in the Senate.
“As somebody who carried the conservative banner as long as he has, he should step into the arena,” Fry told reporters at a Monday campaign event in Myrtle Beach. “He didn’t win. I didn’t win either.”
Fry and Norman both competed against Graham in the Republican primary to be on the November ballot. Norman advanced to a runoff with Graham, who was appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster to fill out the remainder her late brother’s term and ultimately endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Now Graham is locked in a closer-than-expected race against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, prompting national Republicans to flock to defend what is typically considered a safely red seat. Norman, who enjoys deep popularity among conservatives, said he plans to vote for Graham but not campaign with her.
Fry, appearing at an event Monday alongside House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), described Andrews as “a far more dangerous result for the future of this country” and urged Norman to be “more vocal” in the last week before the midterms.
“I hope that he does, in the final eight days, step into the sunlight a little bit and help his Republican nominee,” Fry said.
Trump is expected to hold a rally in Norman’s district Thursday. A spokesperson for Norman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Congress
House Republicans set leadership elections
House Republicans will choose their leaders for the upcoming Congress on Nov. 10, one week after Election Day, according to a schedule obtained by Blue Light News.
A two-hour candidate forum is scheduled for that morning, with the afternoon reserved for the elections of a leader, whip, conference chair and other junior positions. If Republicans can hold on to their narrow majority, members will also nominate a speaker ahead of the Jan. 3 floor vote.
Members have until noon Nov. 6 to declare their candidacy for a leadership post, according to the schedule.
A forum and session on the GOP conference rules will follow on Nov. 11, with elections on those rules and the makeup of the conference steering committee to follow on the morning of Nov. 12. All of the events are scheduled to take place in the Capitol Visitor Center Auditorium.
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