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Mike Johnson has about 12 hours to get his conference behind his plan for enacting the president\u2019s sweeping agenda. It\u2019s not looking good.<\/p>\n

The speaker insists he\u2019s not changing the budget resolution<\/u><\/a>, which would set parameters for a sweeping bill to address border security, energy and tax policy. If House Democrats are at full attendance, just two GOP \u201cno\u201d votes would sink the resolution.<\/p>\n

He and other GOP leaders held meetings late into the night Monday to try and flip holdouts, who fall into two camps with diametrically opposed demands: centrists who don\u2019t want significant reductions to Medicaid and other safety-net programs, and conservatives who want steeper spending cuts.<\/p>\n

There was some progress from those meetings. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, previously undecided, said she was leaning yes<\/u><\/a> after she left Johnson\u2019s office. But a handful of other centrists, including Reps. Tony Gonzales and Juan Ciscomani, remain undecided.<\/p>\n

Many of them met Monday night with Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie, as Republican leaders are scrambling to find cuts to other programs<\/u><\/a> to soften the blow to Medicaid, according to three people granted anonymity to speak frankly. The existing budget framework would have Guthrie\u2019s committee cut $880 billion from initiatives under the panel\u2019s purview \u2014 with Medicaid poised to feature prominently on the chopping block.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don’t know how you do it without cutting Medicaid seriously,\u201d Rep. Jeff Van Drew said. \u201cAnd so that’s my concern, and that’s why, at this point, I’m a lean no.\u201d<\/p>\n

But some conservatives might be a problem, too. Reps. Tim Burchett and Victoria Spartz say they are currently opposed, though they still plan to talk with GOP leadership prior to the vote. Rep. Thomas Massie has told fellow Republicans he\u2019s a no. Rep. Andy Ogles and other hard-liners are still furious there aren’t deeper spending cuts in the plans and are threatening to tank the resolution on the floor Tuesday night. And still others are signaling<\/u><\/a> they want answers about a government funding deal before they vote to adopt a budget resolution.<\/p>\n

Johnson likely hoped he would get some backup from Trump in the leadup to the big vote, but that hasn\u2019t materialized yet. Van Drew said he spoke to Trump and that they\u2019re \u201caligned\u201d on not wanting to cut people\u2019s health care, but the New Jersey Republican said Trump didn\u2019t ask him to support the budget resolution. And Elon Musk wrote<\/u><\/a> \u201cthat sounds bad\u201d in response to a Massie X post that said the budget plan would add to the deficit.<\/p>\n

Johnson said Monday night that he still planned to hold the vote today, adding: \u201cI think we\u2019re on track.\u201d<\/p>\n

What else we’re watching:<\/b><\/p>\n