{"id":553,"date":"2024-11-11T09:31:21","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T09:31:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/heres-why-another-attempt-by-trump-to-overturn-the-election-will-fail\/"},"modified":"2024-11-11T09:31:21","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T09:31:21","slug":"heres-why-another-attempt-by-trump-to-overturn-the-election-will-fail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/heres-why-another-attempt-by-trump-to-overturn-the-election-will-fail\/","title":{"rendered":"Here’s why another attempt by Trump to overturn the election will fail"},"content":{"rendered":"
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An underestimated factor in 2024<\/a> is that, while former President Donald Trump<\/a> and his closest allies have learned from their failed 2020 coup attempt<\/a>, everyone else learned, too.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack<\/a> on the U.S. Capitol, I wrote out ways to protect American democracy<\/a> in anticipation of another attempt in 2024. I\u2019m pleased to say most of them happened.<\/p>\n

Voters around the country rejected the \u201celection denier<\/a>\u201d conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions. Congress reformed the Electoral Count Act<\/a>, addressing loopholes Trump and congressional Republicans tried to exploit on Jan. 6. Big defamation payments for Dominion voting systems<\/a>, as well as Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss<\/a>, give right-wing media a financial disincentive against pushing blatant lies.<\/p>\n

Voters around the country rejected the \u2018election denier\u2019 conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions. <\/p>\n

The legal system didn\u2019t prevent Trump from getting this chance to put himself above the law, but the Justice Department did successfully prosecute hundreds of Jan. 6 attackers<\/a>. Some of the most dangerous, such as militia members convicted of seditious conspiracy, are in prison. They can\u2019t attack this time, and they offer an example for others: Trump can pardon insurrectionists if he becomes president, but you\u2019re in trouble if he doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The Republican Party has purged officials who won\u2019t at least go along with Trump\u2019s \u201cbig lie\u201d and primed its supporters to deny election results, hammering lies about fraud. And this time they\u2019ll have Elon Musk\u2019s X pumping out conspiracy theories and trying to stoke political violence, as he recently did in the U.K.<\/a><\/p>\n

In the event Trump loses, some degree of violence is likely as Trump and MAGA media whip their followers into a frenzy, but law enforcement will be more prepared<\/a>. And he isn\u2019t president, so he probably can\u2019t summon a crowd to the National Mall in Washington and facilitate violence by ordering metal detectors removed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Trump<\/picture>
President Donald Trump arrives at the “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.<\/span>Tasos Katopodis \/ Getty Images, file<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There are bigger concerns at the state level. Some MAGA election administration officials will reject votes they don\u2019t like or otherwise try to manipulate the process<\/a>. We could see another fake electors scheme or state legislatures\u2019 claiming they can overrule their voters.<\/p>\n

But 2020 fake electors failed and got indicted<\/a>, with the first conviction<\/a> coming this August. To succeed this time, they\u2019d need their states\u2019 governors and a majority in Congress, both of which are unlikely. Even this Trump-authoritarianism-sympathetic Supreme Court<\/a> rejected claims of state legislative supremacy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A more vulnerable point is vote counting, especially in swing states where it could take days. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can\u2019t start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, and Republican-led state legislatures rejected requests<\/a> for reform. Trump could try to exploit any delays, declaring victory based on partial counts.<\/p>\n

But 2020 was a better environment for that scam. Mail-in ballots had a heavy Democratic lean because Democrats took Covid more seriously than Republicans, and Trump was lying about mail-ins as a pretext to challenge the vote. This year, Republicans are encouraging early and mail-in voting<\/a>. And whatever happens, an army of lawyers<\/a> is ready to fight it out in court.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to attempt disruption.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a risk of violent demonstrations at vote-counting centers. But areas that experienced threatening crowds last time are more prepared. For example, Maricopa County \u2014 which includes Phoenix and over half of Arizona\u2019s population \u2014 will protect counting centers with drone surveillance and police snipers. \u201cElection workers,\u201d The Wall Street Journal reports<\/a>, \u201chave gone through active-shooter drills and learned to barricade themselves or wield fire hoses to repel armed mobs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other swing states should increase security at vote-counting centers, if they haven\u2019t already. Especially in populous areas that will take longer to count, such as in and around Philadelphia.<\/p>\n

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing incentives to attempt disruption. But it would draw immense national attention from all sides, with lawyers, political operatives, protesters and media descending on the state.<\/p>\n

Election administration is diffuse and multilayered, and a lot is on camera. More judges and election officials want to uphold the law than overthrow it. We may not know the winner on Election Night, but we\u2019ll almost certainly get an accurate count and a certified winner in time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s lying about election results and trying to overthrow democracy with the backing of the institutional Republican Party is the positive scenario. That would sound shockingly bad to an American in 2015, but in 2024 it\u2019s much better than the alternative.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If he wins, all bets are off. But if he loses, we can take some solace in that it\u2019ll be harder for him and his team to try to steal the election this time around.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

<\/span>Nicholas Grossman<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An underestimated factor in 2024 is that, while former President Donald Trump and his closest allies have learned from their failed 2020 coup attempt, everyone else learned, too.\u00a0 On the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, I wrote out ways to protect American democracy in anticipation of another attempt in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":554,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","category-trump"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=553"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/554"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}