{"id":2995,"date":"2024-11-27T20:20:26","date_gmt":"2024-11-27T20:20:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/johnsons-next-margin-headache-manchin-style-republicans\/"},"modified":"2024-11-27T20:20:26","modified_gmt":"2024-11-27T20:20:26","slug":"johnsons-next-margin-headache-manchin-style-republicans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/johnsons-next-margin-headache-manchin-style-republicans\/","title":{"rendered":"Johnson&#8217;s next margin headache: Manchin-style Republicans"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Speaker <a href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/242539\" data-person-id=\"242539\">Mike Johnson<\/a> is staring down what could be a one-vote majority to enact the House GOP agenda in the first months of the second Trump era. The practical effect will be that every member of his conference has the potential to be the next Sen. <a href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/151825\" data-person-id=\"151825\">Joe Manchin<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/198919\" data-person-id=\"198919\">Kyrsten Sinema<\/a>, who had outsized power to snarl Democrats\u2019 priorities under President Joe Biden.<\/p>\n<p>Who will have the biggest sway in the tiny House GOP majority?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Frustrated conservatives: <\/b>There are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/live-updates\/2023\/11\/15\/congress\/doj-spending-bill-00127341\">scores<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/live-updates\/2024\/04\/10\/congress\/fisa-failure-00151546\">examples<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/live-updates\/2024\/02\/21\/congress\/house-conservatives-pledge-stopgap-spending-gop-00142500\">just<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/06\/06\/conservatives-mccarthy-rebellion-debt-deal-00100538\">this<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/live-updates\/2023\/09\/29\/congress\/stopgap-fails-00119129\">Congress<\/a> of a small bloc of conservative lawmakers sinking legislation because it didn\u2019t align with their ideology, didn\u2019t slash spending enough or failed to include their favored policy provisions. Three hard-liners on the Rules Committee \u2014 Reps. Chip Roy of Texas , Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Ralph Norman of South Carolina \u2014 often prevented legislation from hitting the floor and are poised to be headaches again for Johnson next year.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><b>SALT-y big staters:<\/b> Republicans from the high-tax states of New York, New Jersey and California are vowing to try again to expand the federal deduction for state and local taxes as part of any tax bill next year, after a GOP Congress capped it in 2017. They\u2019ll have big leverage if they want to flex it, though conservatives have generally opposed all efforts to sweeten the deduction. Look for potential pressure from members including <link-congress href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/390300\" data-person-id=\"390300\" link-data='{\"cms.site.owner\":{\"_ref\":\"0000014b-3270-d4f3-a3cb-f3ffa8610000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff4161000e\"},\"cms.content.publishDate\":1732738268051,\"cms.content.publishUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"cms.content.updateDate\":1732738268051,\"cms.content.updateUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"originalTemplate\":false,\"member\":\"{\"identifier\":\"390300\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/390300\",\"preferredName\":\"Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY)\",\"isCommittee\":false}\",\"text\":\"Mike Lawler\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/390300\",\"personId\":\"390300\",\"_id\":\"00000193-6f3f-d608-ab9f-6f3fac6f0000\",\"_type\":\"353fe80b-e1b5-3663-85ca-add066ecafc0\"}'>\n    Mike Lawler\n  <\/link-congress> of New York, <link-congress href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/196450\" data-person-id=\"196450\" link-data='{\"cms.site.owner\":{\"_ref\":\"0000014b-3270-d4f3-a3cb-f3ffa8610000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff4161000e\"},\"cms.content.publishDate\":1732738281519,\"cms.content.publishUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"cms.content.updateDate\":1732738281519,\"cms.content.updateUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"originalTemplate\":false,\"member\":\"{\"identifier\":\"196450\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/196450\",\"preferredName\":\"Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ)\",\"isCommittee\":false}\",\"text\":\"Jeff Van Drew\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/196450\",\"personId\":\"196450\",\"_id\":\"00000193-6f3f-dd01-a3d7-6fffe54e0000\",\"_type\":\"353fe80b-e1b5-3663-85ca-add066ecafc0\"}'>\n    Jeff Van Drew\n  <\/link-congress> of New Jersey and <link-congress href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/16857\" data-person-id=\"16857\" link-data='{\"cms.site.owner\":{\"_ref\":\"0000014b-3270-d4f3-a3cb-f3ffa8610000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff4161000e\"},\"cms.content.publishDate\":1732738289235,\"cms.content.publishUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"cms.content.updateDate\":1732738289235,\"cms.content.updateUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"originalTemplate\":false,\"member\":\"{\"identifier\":\"16857\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/16857\",\"preferredName\":\"Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)\",\"isCommittee\":false}\",\"text\":\"Young Kim\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/16857\",\"personId\":\"16857\",\"_id\":\"00000193-6f3f-d1f8-ad9b-7f3fffda0000\",\"_type\":\"353fe80b-e1b5-3663-85ca-add066ecafc0\"}'>\n    Young Kim\n  <\/link-congress> of California.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Higher office aspirants: <\/b>Republicans who run for state-wide office back home could deplete Johnson\u2019s stable of votes if they\u2019re out of Washington campaigning. Lawler, Reps. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news9.com\/story\/67411f022189ff3d96d07c3b\/kevin-hern-weighs-2026-oklahoma-governor-bid\">Kevin Hern<\/a> (Okla.) and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tallahassee.com\/story\/news\/2024\/11\/25\/ron-desantis-governor-2027-florida-matt-byron-donalds\/76563001007\/\">Byron Donalds<\/a> (Fla.) are seen as potential candidates for governorships. It will be an attendance factor to keep an eye on for expected tight votes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The actuarial caucus: <\/b>Not to ruin your Thanksgiving dinner prep, but one undercooked dinner plate could sideline enough House Republicans to (temporarily) prevent votes on controversial legislation. Three members of the House (all Democrats) passed away during the current Congress. There will be 13 members of Congress at the start of the next session older than 80, including three Republicans: <link-congress href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51589\" data-person-id=\"51589\" link-data='{\"cms.site.owner\":{\"_ref\":\"0000014b-3270-d4f3-a3cb-f3ffa8610000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff4161000e\"},\"cms.content.publishDate\":1732738177991,\"cms.content.publishUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"cms.content.updateDate\":1732738177991,\"cms.content.updateUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"originalTemplate\":false,\"member\":\"{\"identifier\":\"51589\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51589\",\"preferredName\":\"Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY)\",\"isCommittee\":false}\",\"text\":\"Hal Rogers\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51589\",\"personId\":\"51589\",\"_id\":\"00000193-6f3e-d1f8-ad9b-7f3e4cf40000\",\"_type\":\"353fe80b-e1b5-3663-85ca-add066ecafc0\"}'>\n    Hal Rogers\n  <\/link-congress> of Kentucky, <link-congress href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51316\" data-person-id=\"51316\" link-data='{\"cms.site.owner\":{\"_ref\":\"0000014b-3270-d4f3-a3cb-f3ffa8610000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff4161000e\"},\"cms.content.publishDate\":1732738188216,\"cms.content.publishUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"cms.content.updateDate\":1732738188216,\"cms.content.updateUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"originalTemplate\":false,\"member\":\"{\"identifier\":\"51316\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51316\",\"preferredName\":\"Rep. John Carter (R-TX)\",\"isCommittee\":false}\",\"text\":\"John Carter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51316\",\"personId\":\"51316\",\"_id\":\"00000193-6f3e-d608-ab9f-6f3f6ece0000\",\"_type\":\"353fe80b-e1b5-3663-85ca-add066ecafc0\"}'>\n    John Carter\n  <\/link-congress> of Texas and <link-congress href=\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51389\" data-person-id=\"51389\" link-data='{\"cms.site.owner\":{\"_ref\":\"0000014b-3270-d4f3-a3cb-f3ffa8610000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff4161000e\"},\"cms.content.publishDate\":1732738196258,\"cms.content.publishUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"cms.content.updateDate\":1732738196258,\"cms.content.updateUser\":{\"_ref\":\"0000018c-82ce-d251-affe-ffde3ef40000\",\"_type\":\"0000014b-324d-d4f3-a3cb-f3ff415b0002\"},\"originalTemplate\":false,\"member\":\"{\"identifier\":\"51389\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51389\",\"preferredName\":\"Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC)\",\"isCommittee\":false}\",\"text\":\"Virginia Foxx\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/directory.politicopro.com\/member\/51389\",\"personId\":\"51389\",\"_id\":\"00000193-6f3e-dd01-a3d7-6fff95fc0000\",\"_type\":\"353fe80b-e1b5-3663-85ca-add066ecafc0\"}'>\n    Virginia Foxx\n  <\/link-congress> of North Carolina.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>When will we know what Johnson has to work with?<\/b> After three weeks of counting, Democrat Adam Gray moved ahead of GOP Rep. John Duarte on Tuesday night in California\u2019s Central Valley. If that lead holds, as well as those in two other uncalled races, Republicans would likely have a 217-215 majority in the House for much of Trump\u2019s first 100 days, given the expected departures of Republican Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. And a reminder: A 216-216 vote would fail.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down what could be a one-vote majority to enact the House GOP agenda in the first months of the second Trump era. The practical effect will be that every member of his conference has the potential to be the next Sen. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, who had outsized power [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-congress"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2995\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}