Chuck Schumer is about to find out what his path to keeping power looks like.<\/p>\n

If Democrats win a Senate majority in Tuesday’s midterms, pulling off what was once seen as a longshot feat, senators and aides across the caucus agree the New Yorker is a shoo-in to return as top leader \u2014 rebuffing critics who have lambasted how he has handled President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201cSchumer delivering a Democratic Senate certainly justifies another term as leader,\u201d said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse<\/a> (D-R.I.), capturing the consensus sentiment.<\/p>\n

But if Democrats fail to meet their recently expanded expectations, Schumer<\/a> could be in for a bumpier path back to power.<\/p>\n

If Democrats manage to end up with fewer seats \u2014 a scenario most in the party consider highly unlikely as polling continues to move away from Republicans \u2014 outside progressive groups that have been gearing up to demand a leadership change regardless of the election outcome could suddenly find traction among the senators who will decide Schumer\u2019s fate.<\/p>\n

Multiple factions believe Schumer will hold on as leader, however, so long as his party picks up seats \u2014 though it might not be without some internal horsetrading and headaches.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis isn\u2019t last year,\u201d said a Schumer-neutral Senate Democratic aide granted anonymity to speak about internal caucus dynamics, referring back to government funding fights with Trump that had many Democratic senators publicly fuming over how Schumer handled them.<\/p>\n

But if Democrats are in the minority, the 75-year-old leader could find himself dealing with members who publicly break with him, questions from colleagues about whether he will retire in 2028 or even an unlikely longshot challenger, according to five people interviewed about Schumer\u2019s standing.<\/p>\n

Senate Democrats are expected to hold their leadership elections in early December, and Schumer declined to discuss in a recent interview how he plans to campaign for another two years as top dog, saying he was focused solely on the midterms.<\/p>\n

\u201cLook, I have focused totally like the North Star on winning back the Senate. And I think people recognize that we have had a lot of success,\u201d Schumer told reporters in late September<\/a> when asked about his critics.<\/p>\n

The challenge for Schumer is the election map remains volatile in the final stretch before Election Day.<\/p>\n

Democrats are confident they\u2019ll pick up one seat from Republicans \u2014 in North Carolina, where Schumer personally recruited former Gov. Roy Cooper to run. They\u2019re cautiously optimistic about a host of other Republican-held states, including Ohio, Iowa and Texas \u2014 where the establishment\u2019s preferred nominees all won.<\/p>\n

However, some races where Democrats have had high hopes continue to hang in the balance \u2014 including Maine, where the party’s initial nominee, Graham Platner, imploded, with replacement Troy Jackson struggling to gain distance from GOP incumbent Susan Collins. The Michigan race remains in margin-of-error territory with Democrats locked in eleventh-hour infighting. Rep. Haley Stevens<\/a>, the Schumer-backed candidate who lost the Democratic primary, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers on Sunday over hard-left Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Alaska race has been rocked in recent days by a New York Times report<\/a> that national Democratic operatives schemed to recruit a same-named candidate to confuse voters who would otherwise support Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan<\/a>. Schumer said last week he had no knowledge of or participation in the effort.<\/p>\n