ALBANY, New York \u2014 New York Republicans have a closing argument for voters unhappy with the cost of living: Blame the incumbent Democrats who run Albany.<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump\u2019s deep unpopularity in his native state \u2014 made worse by high gas prices and a Canadian tariff war \u2014 has created a nightmare environment for the GOP in this deep blue state. Yet Republican candidates, strategists and former officeholders believe their party can leverage New Yorkers\u2019 vexation with high taxes, housing costs and skyrocketing utility bills to offset the midterm agony their party is poised to suffer on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman\u2019s final TV ad warns voters<\/u><\/a> that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul\u2019s reelection will result in a tax hike at the behest of her political ally, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. On the trail, he blasts the sharp increase in energy costs and pledges to reverse the state\u2019s 12-year-old ban on natural gas drilling<\/u><\/a> along the Pennsylvania border. And he\u2019s pledging to bolster public safety<\/u><\/a> by repealing a package of criminal justice law changes.<\/p>\n

Republicans hope those attacks will offset Democrats\u2019 efforts to make the election a referendum on Trump. GOP candidates running in down-ballot House and state legislative contests have used Hochul as a foil \u2014 a reflection of her middling poll numbers for much of the year.<\/p>\n

Rep. Mike Lawler, running in a district Trump lost by one point two years ago, has gleefully tied Democrats<\/u><\/a> to Hochul.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Democrats in New York complain about affordability, we have the highest state taxes in the country, income and property taxes. We have chronically poor educational performance. We have a housing market that\u2019s stultified,\u201d said former Rep. John Faso, a Republican who ran for governor in 2006. \u201cSince the Democrats have been running New York state at the statewide level for many years \u2014 it\u2019s hard to blame all of that on Donald Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hochul\u2019s campaign insists New York voters will positively affirm her five years in office.<\/p>\n

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\n \u201cFrom the beginning, this race has been about records: Governor Hochul has put money back in New Yorkers\u2019 pockets, invested $4 billion in public safety, and fought back against Trump\u2019s attacks \u2013 all Bruce Blakeman has done is raise taxes, stick his neck out for ICE, and defend everything Trump does,\u201d Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said in a statement. “<\/b>New Yorkers don\u2019t want that and they never have.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

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\n The rhetoric reflects a broader bet about voters\u2019 collective mood in an intensely disruptive political era and is a test of whether increasingly nationalized elections can still hinge on local concerns. Skyrocketing gas and grocery costs, along with the perception among younger people<\/u><\/a> that their generation will not be as financially secure as their parents, has fueled insurgent primary candidates\u2019 successful bids against their establishment foes.\n<\/p>\n

New York Republicans are making this anti-incumbent case eight years after Democrats won the state Senate, giving them control of both legislative chambers and the governor\u2019s office. GOP officials contend that Democratic control in Albany has made the Empire State less safe and more expensive. They hope the argument will appeal to swing voters, including the growing number of people who aren\u2019t enrolled in a party, and disaffected Democrats concerned with the party\u2019s leftward lurch \u2014 especially after Mamdani\u2019s election.<\/p>\n

The stakes for Republicans extend beyond Blakeman\u2019s longshot bid for governor. The GOP is trying to retain control of the closely divided House, and New York is home to several swing districts.<\/p>\n

Republicans are fretting about the political fate of Lawler, who occupies one of those swing seats. They are also nervously watching the outcome of a race for a deep red House seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik \u2014 an election that was never expected to be competitive.<\/p>\n

Polls have shown their entire statewide ticket, which is led by Blakeman and includes state attorney general and comptroller candidates, down by double digits against the incumbent Democrats. One survey also showed<\/u><\/a> the limits of both candidates\u2019 affordability pitches: 35% of likely voters said neither would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers, compared with 30% who chose Hochul and 27% who chose Blakeman.<\/p>\n

Voters across the country are enraged by the cost of living, and Hochul\u2019s allies expect they will take it out on Trump.<\/p>\n