A sudden cut to Social Security checks \u2014 long seen as a far-off doomsday \u2014 is now an imminent problem for the next president and whomever voters send to Congress in the coming years.<\/p>\n

The trust fund that bankrolls monthly checks to retirees is set to be drained<\/a> of reserves in late 2032. That means tens of millions of Americans age 62 and older, as well as children and widowed spouses who get survivor benefits following the death of a family member, would see their monthly payments shrink by more than 20 percent \u2014 or an average of about $500 a month \u2014 unless Congress and the president act.<\/p>\n

Capitol Hill saw a noticeable surge this summer in the sense of urgency to enact a fix, and alliances have started forming between prominent Republicans and Democrats rallying for a solution. But President Donald Trump and congressional leaders have yet to join the calls to action or back any of the numerous bipartisan bills aimed at preventing benefit cuts.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis train wreck is going to happen,\u201d Rep. Steve Womack<\/a> (R-Ark.) said in an interview. \u201cSo as early as six years from now, we’re going to have to have a plan. And of course, I’m a big believer that we need to deal with it now, or we need to start the process of dealing with it now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump has yet to signal interest in a specific fix for the federal government\u2019s single largest safety-net program, sticking instead to broad promises to safeguard benefits.<\/p>\n

House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole<\/a> (R-Okla.) recalled discussing the issue with Trump during his first term as president.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe said, \u2018Tom, I’ll be for this the first day of my second term,\u2019\u201d Cole told reporters this summer about trying to get Trump to push for a fix. \u201cWell, we’re here.\u201d<\/p>\n

White House spokesperson Liz Huston said in a statement that Trump \u201cwill always protect and strengthen Social Security\u201d and noted that the Republican megabill enacted last summer created a temporary tax deduction for people 65 and older that can be used to reduce taxes owed on Social Security benefits.<\/p>\n

\u201cUnder his leadership, there will be zero reductions to Social Security payments,\u201d she said, without specifying how Trump proposes to address the 2032 cliff.<\/p>\n

$\"Trump$ <\/p>\n

Trump isn\u2019t the only Washington power player uninterested in risking their political legacy by diving into a policy thicket where proposals include hiking payroll taxes, raising the age for benefit eligibility or letting some taxpayer cash ride the waves of the stock market.<\/p>\n

Senate Majority Leader John Thune<\/a> and Speaker Mike Johnson<\/a> rarely discuss the approaching benefit cliff, nor have they called to advance any of the bills lawmakers have proposed to prevent it \u2014 prompting criticism this summer from top Democrats demanding the two GOP leaders \u201cput forward their plan\u201d<\/a> to protect Social Security.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, some lawmakers have been telling voters the whole notion of a cliff is a hoax.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/b>Your Social Security is safe. You can write that down and take it home to mama,\u201d Sen. John Kennedy<\/a> (R-La.) said at an event this summer<\/a>. \u201cAll we got to do is go take the money out of the general fund, which we always do.\u201d<\/p>\n

But backfilling a depleted trust fund with Treasury dollars, as Kennedy suggests, would not be automatic. Congress would need to pass a bill to do so, and winning support to siphon that cash could be difficult considering the U.S. public debt zoomed past $40 trillion this month after exceeding the nation\u2019s annual economic output earlier this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThose are the politics that are bringing us a debt crisis,\u201d former Speaker Paul Ryan said in an interview, knocking the \u201cpopulist\u201d approach lawmakers like Kennedy are taking in assuring voters that Social Security benefits would be covered by growing the deficit.<\/p>\n

During the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, Ryan pushed controversial plans to invest some Social Security contributions into private savings accounts and make changes like raising the retirement age.<\/p>\n

\u201cRegrettably, if we had reformed it back when we were trying to in the Bush administration, we would not be at this place,\u201d Ryan said. \u201cBut the politics got the better of us in those days.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ryan was a member of the bipartisan 2010 fiscal commission led by Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Alan Simpson but ultimately voted against the group\u2019s final proposal, which included plans to increase the age for receiving full Social Security payments, changing the formula for benefits and taxing more wages.<\/p>\n

Obama backed away from a deal<\/a> in 2011 with then-Speaker John Boehner to enact changes to Social Security as part of a broader fiscal \u201cgrand bargain.\u201d<\/p>\n

Today, not only is the Social Security cliff much closer, but the nation\u2019s overall fiscal trajectory has worsened. In recent weeks, market watchers have blamed endless deficits for helping spike long-term Treasury bond yields \u2014 increasing borrowing costs and raising fears of a \u201cdebt spiral.\u201d<\/p>\n

$\"Ryan's$ <\/p>\n

Fixing the Social Security benefit cliff is not the same as solving the country\u2019s larger fiscal issues. But it could be a test case for Washington\u2019s ability to make difficult tradeoffs that will be necessary to bring deficits under control.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy sense is that there’s pretty wide recognition of the fiscal situation \u2014 that the fiscal trajectory is unsustainable,\u201d Congressional Budget Office director Phillip Swagel said in an interview. \u201cAnd the interest in Social Security seems like the first kind of translation \u2026 into sort of realistic policy alternatives.\u201d<\/p>\n

The last time Social Security was headed toward insolvency, in the early 1980s, Congress didn\u2019t enact a solution until a few months before benefits were set to be cut. A commission appointed by then-President Ronald Reagan developed proposals for overhauling the safety-net program, and lawmakers then passed a 1983 overhaul that gradually increased the age for receiving full benefits to 67 and raised taxes on those benefits, among other tweaks.<\/p>\n

In a nod to Reagan\u2019s approach, Cole and Rep. Tom Suozzi<\/a> (D-N.Y.) released a bill this summer to create a bipartisan commission that would recommend a plan for staving off benefit cuts and then fast-track that proposal through Congress on an up-or-down vote. Several Republicans and Democrats are signed on to a similar bill across the Capitol led by Sens. Bill Cassidy<\/a> (R-La.) and Dick Durbin<\/a> (D-Ill.), both of whom are leaving office at the end of the year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe senators elected this November will be here when we have to solve this. The next president who’s elected will be here when we have to solve this,\u201d Sen. Tim Kaine<\/a> (D-Va.), a sponsor of that Senate bill, said in an interview. \u201cSo rather than wait till 2032, let’s go ahead and get this started now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Those bipartisan plans have critics on Capitol Hill, however. Sen. Bernie Sanders<\/a> (I-Vt.) publicly warned Democrats<\/a> this month not to allow Republicans \u201cto slash or privatize Social Security through an unelected commission.\u201d And backlash has emerged to other proposals that have delved into controversial policy specifics.<\/p>\n

For instance, anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist<\/a> has slammed a bill from the odd-bedfellows duo of progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren<\/a> (D-Mass.) and MAGA Sen. Bernie Moreno<\/a> (R-Ohio) that would make the nation\u2019s highest earners pay Social Security payroll taxes on 100 percent of their earnings.<\/p>\n

Rep. Brendan Boyle<\/a> (D-Pa.), who has pushed a similar plan for years, said in an interview that because Trump \u201chas absolutely no interest whatsoever in solving this problem,\u201d the issue needs to be at the center of the presidential primary debates for Trump’s successor.<\/p>\n

\u201cLike it or not,\u201d Boyle said, \u201cthis will be on the plate of the next president.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"