South Carolina Republicans might be watching history repeat itself.<\/p>\n

A special election Senate primary on Tuesday, triggered by Sen. Lindsey Graham\u2019s sudden death,<\/a> has all the makings of their rollercoaster governor\u2019s primary<\/a> back in June: A front-runner endorsed by President Donald Trump but facing a steep uphill battle to consolidate the field behind her. And the looming threat of a runoff election that could lead to a late surge from another Republican.<\/p>\n

Darline Graham is running for a full term<\/a> to replace her late brother, leading in some public polls over GOP Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, former Gov. Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch.<\/p>\n

The crowded field makes it very unlikely she or anyone else will clinch the majority needed to avoid a bitter runoff. And, aside from deploying his standard playbook of a few Truth Social posts supporting Graham and a last-minute tele-rally<\/a> scheduled for Monday, Trump has made no public indication of what else he is planning to do to help.<\/p>\n

For one particular South Carolina Republican, the situation is all too familiar: Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette had Trump\u2019s backing in the GOP governor\u2019s primary \u2014 and then lost to Alan Wilson in the runoff after he rose in the polls and secured a rare double endorsement<\/a> from the president.<\/p>\n

Asked if she wished Trump would have done more to boost her, Evette told Blue Light News: \u201cObviously, yes. I do wish that, but you know, it didn’t happen that way.\u201d She said she has not yet decided who to endorse in the Senate primary and is keeping a close eye on how it plays out.<\/p>\n

“Run it back,” said one national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak openly about how the South Carolina Senate primary may turn into a redux of the governor’s race. “The long and short of it, [Graham\u2019s] got a pretty low ceiling.”<\/p>\n

The snap Senate election tees up another test of Trump\u2019s influence over the Republican Party. It will reveal whether the president\u2019s word alone is enough to carry his preferred candidate to the nomination, and the lengths to which he is willing to go to boost his picks \u2014 especially ones who find themselves with an uncertain path to victory.<\/p>\n

This will be Graham\u2019s first ever contest at the ballot box in a state known for its bruising GOP political battles. Nearly half a dozen local Republican officials and strategists alike believe Graham is in a strong position to win the first round of voting. But whoever secures the second place spot will determine just how much more support she may need from Trump to overcome a one-on-one challenge.<\/p>\n

The White House didn\u2019t respond to a request for comment.<\/p>\n

Republicans differed on whether Norman or Fry would pose the bigger challenge to Graham\u2019s path to victory in a runoff scenario. Norman boasts a longtime base of conservative support in the state, while Fry, who was elected to Congress in 2022, is seen as an up-and-coming star who has caught Trump\u2019s interest.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it’s Darline and Russell, it definitely has some flavors of the governor’s race,\u201d said Tyson Grinstead, an RNC committee member and chair of the Richland County GOP, who is staying neutral in the Senate race. Both candidates have good relationships with the president \u2014 and Trump has already proven he\u2019s willing to double endorse in a runoff.<\/p>\n

However, Grinstead added, there are some key differences.<\/p>\n

The main flaw in Evette\u2019s strategy that Republicans in South Carolina have pointed to was her decision to run too intensely on her ties to the president in lieu of a more issues-first message.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think most of the criticism came because I got his endorsement, and everybody was fighting for his endorsement. That’s how I looked at it,\u201d Evette said in an interview, deflecting the criticism. \u201cIn states like this that have these runoffs, where very few people come out, I think if you’re not tied into the establishment, I think it hurts you in some form of fashion.\u201d<\/p>\n

With the president’s endorsement already secured, Graham is making a clear effort to differentiate herself not only from her field of contenders, but from her brother as well.<\/p>\n

In an interview with Fox News announcing her run, Graham made a point to emphasize her intention to focus on domestic issues in contrast to the late senator\u2019s foreign policy-hued legacy. And she brought the same focus to her first debate stage appearance last week.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf anybody understands the struggles of South Carolinians, it’s me,\u201d Graham said on stage last week, talking about her own cost of living struggles \u2014 even as she vowed to support Trump\u2019s pet projects while in office, including the SAVE America Act.<\/p>\n

“Of course the campaign’s advertising highlights the Trump endorsement. We’re proud of it, and there’s no question it’s still the gold standard in Republican politics,\u201d said a person familiar with Graham\u2019s approach, granted anonymity to discuss internal campaign strategy.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut Darline knows an endorsement opens a door, it doesn’t walk through it for you,\u201d this person added. \u201cShe’s out there every day earning this on her own, because that’s what voters deserve \u2014 a candidate who shows up and makes her own case, not one who assumes the race is already won.”<\/p>\n

One of Graham\u2019s key advantages in staving off a late upset lies in her inherited slate of seasoned operatives and statewide campaign infrastructure \u2014 a hallmark of Lindsey Graham\u2019s decades of success in the state.<\/p>\n

\u201cLindsey’s team has been the best team in South Carolina,\u201d said Grinstead, who worked for the late senator\u2019s campaigns in past cycles. \u201cThey’re organized, they have a grassroots presence, they have field staff.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, Graham is likely to face a competitive runoff regardless of which candidate squeaks into second place. Fry and Norman are seen as the two most likely contenders based on limited public polling available in the race so far. In a glimpse of how fluid and unpredictable the primary has become, a straw poll<\/a> conducted by the South Carolina Republican Party showed Graham in third place, trailing both Norman and Fry.<\/p>\n

The two representatives offer competing flavors for Republicans to choose from.<\/p>\n

Fry is seen in both Washington and Columbia as a rising star in the party. He also has a fan in Trump who, in the muddied political waters immediately following Lindsey Graham\u2019s death, said in an interview with Newsmax that the House Republican is \u201coutstanding\u201d and a \u201cvery talented person.\u201d<\/p>\n

But questions remain about the legal process of what happens to his congressional seat should he win his party\u2019s nomination for Senate and go on to win in the general election. The state party has signaled they would act quickly<\/a> to address a vacancy to protect House Republicans\u2019 extremely narrow majority in Congress.<\/p>\n

Norman, for his part, already gave up his House seat to run for governor earlier this year. He is a longtime fixture of the state\u2019s most conservative factions, who has at times been a thorn in Trump\u2019s side, like when he endorsed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for president in 2024.<\/p>\n

But he\u2019s seen as the standard bearer for the powerful Freedom Caucus\u2019 ultraconservative politics in the state, and his gubernatorial bid has left him with a statewide operation that he can reactivate in his run for Senate.<\/p>\n

Graham, Fry, and Norman all declined to comment.<\/p>\n

Both of Graham\u2019s likely top opponents have honed most of their fire on each other \u2014 one of the clearest signs that the first round of the primary is shaping up to be a battle for second place. Still, Graham\u2019s allies have lobbed their own attacks against Fry.<\/p>\n

Security in Strength, a PAC that once supported Lindsey Graham\u2019s 2024 reelection, is up on TV with an ad that shows an AI-depiction of Fry\u2019s likeness<\/a> transposed onto a slice of meat in a frying pan, dumped out by Trump with the words \u201cREJECTED\u201d splashed across the screen.<\/p>\n

Fry has recently started taking aim at Graham, launching an ad claiming that she \u201cballooned the size\u201d and doubled the spending of a government agency \u2014 but did not specify which. Graham has worked for the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department and has led the Commission for the Blind since 2019.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Russell Fry wants to attack Senator Darline for helping people with disabilities find jobs and live independently, that’s a bold fight to pick,\u201d Abby Zilch, a Graham spokesperson, said in response in a post<\/a> on social media.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"