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\n

Gas prices are high. Americans think they\u2019re even higher.<\/p>\n

Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It\u2019s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall.<\/p>\n

Voters\u2019 anxieties about fuel prices could give Democrats a boost ahead of the midterms, further strengthening the Democratic voting base and putting strains on the MAGA coalition as the increasingly unpopular<\/a> war in Iran drags on. A plurality of Americans \u2014 46 percent \u2014 say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote come November.<\/p>\n

Most voters overestimated the change in gas prices in their area, according to the analysis of polling and granular pricing data provided by OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks gas prices. That includes majorities of voters who supported President Donald Trump and also those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.<\/p>\n

Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more. But no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average in the year and a half since Trump took office, as of early July.<\/p>\n

Frustrations over cost of living could be reinforcing existing negative views of the Trump administration: Harris voters are far more likely to overshoot the cost jumps than Trump voters, making it harder for Republicans to peel off Democratic voters.<\/p>\n

And the analysis shows a fracture among Trump voters. Self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate<\/i> cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans \u2014 another crack in the president\u2019s winning coalition as Republicans scramble to hold it together for the midterms.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months,\u201d said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. \u201cHow do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?\u201d<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, American\u2019s perceptions do not quickly change even when prices do. The Blue Light News Poll asked about gas prices in both May, when they were near their peak, and July, when they had dipped.<\/p>\n

The results were the same in both.<\/p>\n

\u201cPresident Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,\u201d said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. \u201cAs the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime\u2019s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gas prices could swing votes<\/h4>\n

Americans\u2019 frustrations with prices and the economy overall are changing how they say they will vote in the fall.<\/p>\n

Of the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.<\/p>\n

\u201cThree quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,\u201d said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. \u201cThat leaves them … very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.\u201d<\/p>\n

To better understand public perception of gas prices, The Blue Light News Poll asked Americans how the price of gas in their area had changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose between buckets like \u201c$1 to $2 higher per gallon,\u201d \u201c$1 to $2 lower per gallon,\u201d or say prices had stayed roughly the same.<\/p>\n

More than three-fourths said gas prices in their area have gone up.<\/p>\n

Using OPIS data, Blue Light News compared each respondent\u2019s answer against the actual average cost of regular gas in their zip code during the first week Trump was in office and the week prior to the July poll, which was conducted by the independent polling organization Public First from July 12 to July 15.<\/p>\n

That comparison revealed the difference between the pain the American public is feeling and where actual gas prices stand \u2014 and, in particular, how that pain is expressed differently among Democrats and Republicans. Roughly 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to Blue Light News\u2019s analysis.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemocrats are highly motivated,\u201d as a voting base, Marson said. \u201cThe longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be.\u201d<\/p>\n

The perception of higher gas prices is linked to how people see the economy \u2014 and who they blame for it.<\/p>\n

Across the country, 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they \u201ccan ever remember it being.\u201d Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing with that statement, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 vote.<\/p>\n

Similarly, a plurality of Americans \u2014 43 percent \u2014 blame Trump more than former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy overall. Those who overestimated their local increase in gas prices had nearly twice the odds of saying the same, compared with those who perceived the change in gas prices correctly or who underestimated the change.<\/p>\n

It’s already affecting the battlegrounds<\/h4>\n

In the country\u2019s most competitive races, Republicans will have to answer for the perceived cost pressures of rising gas prices more often than Democrats.<\/p>\n

Thirteen of the most competitive districts have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to Blue Light News\u2019s analysis. Of those, nine are currently represented by Republicans.<\/p>\n

In California\u2019s 22nd District, where Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao will face off against progressive political newcomer Randy Villegas, average prices across the district had gone up $1.17 by early July \u2014 the third highest increase of any district, according to Blue Light News\u2019s analysis.<\/p>\n

Villegas said in an interview that he thought frustration over gas prices would mobilize turnout in the fall, driven by how the cost of gas is \u201ctied to every other thing.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s the cost of gas when you\u2019re driving to the grocery store, when you\u2019re driving to, you know, see a doctor,\u201d he said. Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to \u201cgo get cheaper health care.\u201d<\/p>\n

Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n

In Colorado\u2019s 8th District, where gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office, Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans blamed local Democratic policies for increased costs more than the Iran war.<\/p>\n

While \u201cwhat’s happening halfway around the globe has some impact on global energy prices,\u201d Evans said, high gas prices in the district are \u201ca direct result of the local economic policies \u2014 the anti-energy policies \u2014 of the state Democrats who run the state of Colorado.\u201d<\/p>\n

But The Blue Light News Poll results from this month show voters don\u2019t necessarily feel the same. Roughly 63 percent of Americans selected \u201cthe war with Iran\u201d as the primary reason why gas prices have increased since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.<\/p>\n

By the middle of May, the average price of gas across the country reached its highest point of the Trump administration to date: $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, average prices dipped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average price since March.<\/p>\n

Still, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans said gas prices had gone up, Blue Light News\u2019s polls show. And in both months, roughly 23 percent said prices had gone up by $3.00 or more.<\/p>\n

This week, Trump said the upcoming midterms would not impact<\/a> how he goes about fighting the war with Iran. \u201cI can’t think about that having to do with this,\u201d he said, referring to the elections. \u201cI think people are very impressed.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gas prices are high. Americans think they\u2019re even higher. Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It\u2019s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall. Voters\u2019 anxieties about fuel […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26397\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}