{"id":23306,"date":"2026-05-27T04:02:46","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T04:02:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/texas-democrats-think-this-is-finally-the-year-theyll-flip-the-senate\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T04:02:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T04:02:46","slug":"texas-democrats-think-this-is-finally-the-year-theyll-flip-the-senate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/texas-democrats-think-this-is-finally-the-year-theyll-flip-the-senate\/","title":{"rendered":"Texas Democrats think this is finally the year they\u2019ll flip the Senate"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Texas Democrats have wandered in the wilderness for decades. They hope a seminarian-turned-politician will finally lead them out.<\/p>\n

Now that Republicans have nominated Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, Democrats see November as their best opportunity this century to flip Texas blue. They have a favorable political environment, aided by nationwide dissatisfaction with the economy and President Donald Trump\u2019s leadership. They see the Texas GOP fractured after a messy Senate primary<\/a> that took out Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), one of the party\u2019s senior statesmen, and a potentially fatally flawed candidate in Paxton with his significant personal baggage<\/a>.<\/p>\n

They think their nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, is the ideal candidate to break through.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemocrats have been in the desert for three decades,\u201d said Mark McKinnon, a longtime GOP strategist and adviser to former President George W. Bush. \u201cTalarico could be Moses.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cliff Walker, a Texas Democratic strategist and principal at Seeker Strategies, echoed the sentiment: \u201cFolks are pretty damn bullish. I think this is the year.\u201d<\/p>\n

The pieces are all aligning, Democratic strategists, lawmakers and activists argue: Talarico is a charismatic candidate who has fundraising prowess<\/a> and boasts a lead in early head-to-head polling<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Still, it\u2019s a target that has long eluded Democrats in one of America\u2019s most conservative, and costliest, battlegrounds. In election cycle after cycle, they\u2019ve raised their hopes and poured money into trying to flip a statewide seat blue. Try as they might, Texas Democrats haven\u2019t elected one of their own to the Senate since 1988.<\/p>\n

Paxton won\u2019t make it easy. The Texas attorney general, who defeated Cornyn by a wide margin in Tuesday\u2019s runoff, emerged from the most expensive Senate primary on record<\/a> with his eyes trained on November. After securing Trump\u2019s endorsement last week, Paxton announced he\u2019d remove all ads attacking Cornyn<\/a> from the airwaves and instead focus his gaze on Talarico, who he calls a \u201cleftist lunatic\u201d and \u201cTalafreako.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMy opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated,\u201d Paxton said in his victory speech Tuesday. \u201cNo matter what he says or how much he raises, the reality is that James Talarico is going to be nothing more than a Texas-based puppet for Chuck Schumer and the national Democrats.\u201d<\/p>\n

Texas Democrats have been bullish before. In 2014, former state Sen. Wendy Davis elicited hopes of flipping the governor\u2019s mansion, but her campaign spent $36 million only to lose to then-Attorney General Greg Abbott by a whopping 20 points<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In 2018, national Democrats were hesitant to back former Rep. Beto O\u2019Rourke\u2019s challenge to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. O\u2019Rourke eventually caught fire in the race\u2019s final months, smashing fundraising records<\/a> and running neck-and-neck in the polls<\/a>, before losing by less than three percentage points \u2014 and leaving national Democrats wondering what could\u2019ve happened if they jumped in sooner.<\/p>\n

In 2020, Cornyn defeated Democratic nominee MJ Hegar by nearly 10 points; in 2024, Cruz toppled former Rep. Colin Allred by eight.<\/p>\n

This cycle could be different, Texas Democrats say. Talarico is polling and fundraising ahead of where O\u2019Rourke was at this point in 2018. And Talarico benefits from a Democratic political operation in the state \u2014 much of it built by O\u2019Rourke \u2014 that was nonexistent when his predecessor ran.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s the best chance Texas Democrats will have to win a statewide race in the entirety of my career,\u201d said Democratic strategist Jeff Rotkoff, who has advised campaigns in Texas for 25 years.<\/p>\n

The national headwinds facing Republicans \u2014 as voters\u2019 patience for the Iran war and its effect on energy prices has eroded<\/a> \u2014 are blowing especially hard in Texas, said Matt Angle, founder of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic-aligned group.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the voter level, what you’ve got is just an overwhelming dissatisfaction with Republicans in a way that you just haven’t seen in Texas in the past,\u201d Angle said.<\/p>\n

Some point to Texas\u2019 9th Senate District as evidence, which Trump won by 17 points in 2024 and a Democrat flipped in January<\/a>. When the Democratic-aligned Texas Majority PAC surveyed voters there, they found that 90 percent of Republican-leaning voters who backed the Democrat in the race said they did it because \u201cthey just would not support any MAGA candidate,\u201d said Katherine Fischer, the group\u2019s director.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was tough for us last cycle to run in an environment where our president was deeply unpopular,\u201d Fischer said. \u201cNow it’s on them.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrats believe Cornyn\u2019s closing argument: That Paxton and his long trail of controversies will create a drag on the Republican ticket.<\/p>\n

“Ken Paxton will be an albatross,\u201d Cornyn said during a Fox News appearance<\/a> Tuesday. \u201cHe could well lose, but even if he doesn’t lose, he will win by such a razor-thin margin that it’s likely to have a negative drag on the down ballot races in Texas.”<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a message that has some national Republicans wringing their hands. \u201cThe national mood is not great for Republicans right now, and Texas feels even worse,\u201d said one Washington GOP operative close to Cornyn, granted anonymity to speak openly. \u201cWe already know we\u2019re heading into a headwind in the state, up and down the ticket, and we just put up the worst possible top-of-the-ticket person.<\/p>\n

\u201cI can\u2019t think of a worse person to put on the top of the ticket than Ken Paxton,\u201d he added. \u201cIt\u2019s laughable. All I can do is laugh.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, it may be Paxton who gets the last laugh. Although his impeachment, the securities fraud investigation and ethics complaints against him, and his ongoing divorce were played up in the many attack ads Cornyn ran, the attorney general still managed to garner support from a large majority of GOP runoff voters.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think Talarico is the only opponent Paxton can beat,\u201d said Tim Edson, the National Republican Senatorial Committee\u2019s former political director. \u201cDemocrats are going to wish they had Beto again. … Talarico is a Marxist creep who will make Paxton seem normal after this race is litigated.\u201d<\/p>\n

The NRSC backed Cornyn in the primary. In a post-election statement the group blasted Talarico, but didn\u2019t mention Paxton.<\/p>\n

“A state President Trump won by nearly 14 points isn\u2019t going to elect James Talarico \u2014 a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary and that Texas should be a welcome mat for illegals,\u201d said NRSC spokesperson Samantha Cantrell. \u201cHe is the most dangerous flank of the far left. Texas isn\u2019t swapping brisket for open borders.\u201d<\/p>\n

Paxton is already laser-focused on attacking Talarico as too progressive: A Paxton-aligned super PAC spent the past week running an ad that labeled Talarico as \u201cweird,\u201d<\/a> clipping the state representative\u2019s statements on gender, race, meat consumption and patriotism.<\/p>\n

Those culture war issues are seen as Talarico\u2019s largest liability as he seeks to win over a wide umbrella of progressive and moderate Democrats, independents and Republicans dissatisfied with Trump. Talarico has claimed there are \u201cmore than two\u201d biological sexes and said he\u2019s had to \u201creckon\u201d with his own whiteness and masculinity.<\/p>\n

Some of his allies want him to avoid those issues altogether.<\/p>\n

\u201cStay away from it,\u201d said state Sen. Royce West, a Democrat who represents Dallas. \u201cI’m pretty sure he’ll have a strategy to do that, but he’s got to be able to get centrists.\u201d<\/p>\n

The same goes for downballot Democrats, who may be hoping to ride the energy of Talarico\u2019s campaign to victory in their own races. The stakes are high: Future control of Congress could run through the Lone Star State, as the post-2030 Census reapportionment<\/a> is poised to gift additional House seats to Texas while kneebuckling the map for Democrats nationwide. With newly redrawn House maps that favor Republicans and not another U.S. Senate race in the state until 2030, now is the ideal moment for Texas Democrats to notch victories up and down the ballot and send a message that they can play in the state.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere’s just a ton of evidence to suggest that this is a much more favorable cycle than anything we’ve seen in Texas in the last 30 years. Is it enough to win in November? I don’t know,\u201d said Fischer. \u201cIf it’s possible to win in Texas, all of the things are there for us to do it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Texas Democrats have wandered in the wilderness for decades. They hope a seminarian-turned-politician will finally lead them out. Now that Republicans have nominated Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, Democrats see November as their best opportunity this century to flip Texas blue. They have a favorable political environment, aided by nationwide dissatisfaction with the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23306\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}