{"id":17142,"date":"2025-12-26T15:02:43","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T15:02:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/4-ways-china-us-relations-could-fracture-in-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-12-26T15:02:43","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T15:02:43","slug":"4-ways-china-us-relations-could-fracture-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/4-ways-china-us-relations-could-fracture-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"4 ways China-US relations could fracture in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The message from Capitol Hill on both sides of the aisle is clear: Get ready for U.S. relations with China to spiral all over again in the new year.<\/p>\n

The one-year trade truce<\/a> brokered in October between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is already looking shaky<\/a>. And lawmakers are preparing to reup clashes over trade, Taiwan and cyber-intrusions when they return in January.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/b>It’s like a heavyweight fight, and we’re in that short time period in-between rounds, but both sides need to be preparing for what is next after the truce,\u201d Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), a member of the House Select Committee on China, said in an interview.<\/p>\n

Blue Light News talked to more than 25 lawmakers, including those on the House Select Committee on China, the House Foreign Affairs Committee\u2019s East Asia subcommittee and the Congressional Executive Commission on China, for their views on the durability of the trade treaty. Both Republicans and Democrats warned of turbulence ahead.<\/p>\n

More than 20 of the lawmakers said they doubt Xi will deliver on key pledges the White House said he made in October, including reducing the flow of precursor chemicals<\/a> to Mexico that cartels process into fentanyl and buying agreed volumes of U.S. agricultural goods.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina can never be trusted. They\u2019re always looking for an angle,\u201d Sen. Thom Tillis<\/a> (R-N.C.) said.<\/p>\n

That pessimism comes despite an easing in U.S.-China tensions since the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. The bruising cycle of tit-for-tat tariffs that briefly hit triple digits earlier this year is currently on pause. Both countries have relaxed export restrictions on essential items (rare earths for the U.S<\/a>, chip design software for China), while Beijing has committed to “expanding agricultural product trade”<\/a> in an apparent reference to the suspension of imports of U.S. agricultural products<\/a> it imposed earlier this year.<\/p>\n

This trend may continue, given that Trump is likely to want stability in the U.S.-China relationship ahead of a summit with Xi planned for April in Beijing. \u201cWe\u2019re starting to see some movement now on some of their tariff issues and the fentanyl precursor issue<\/a>,\u201d Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said.<\/p>\n

But a series of issues have been brushed aside in negotiations or left in limbo \u2014 a status quo the Trump administration can only maintain for so long. The U.S.-China trade deal on rare earths that Bessent said the two countries would finalize by Thanksgiving<\/a> remains unsettled. And the White House hasn\u2019t confirmed reporting from earlier this month<\/a> that Beijing-based ByteDance has finalized the sale of the TikTok social media app ahead of the Jan. 23 deadline for that agreement.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe idea that we\u2019re in a period of stability with Beijing is simply not accurate,\u201d said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen<\/a> (D-N.H.), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.<\/p>\n

Shaheen has been sounding the alarm on China\u2019s national security threats since she entered the Senate in 2009. But even some lawmakers who have been more open to engagement with Beijing \u2014 such as California Democratic Reps. Ro Khanna<\/a> and Ami Bera<\/a> \u2014 said that they don\u2019t expect the armistice to last.<\/p>\n

The White House is more upbeat about the prospects for U.S.-China trade ties. <\/p>\n

“President Trump\u2019s close relationship with President Xi is helping ensure that both countries are able to continue building on progress and continue resolving outstanding issues,” the White House said in a statement, adding that the administration “continues to monitor China\u2019s compliance with our trade agreement.” It declined to comment on the TikTok deal.<\/p>\n

Still, the lawmakers Blue Light News spoke with described four issues that could derail U.S.-China ties in the New Year:<\/p>\n

A soybean spoiler<\/h4>\n

U.S. soybean farmers’ reliance on the Chinese market gives Beijing a powerful non-tariff trade weapon \u2014 and China doesn\u2019t appear to be following through on promises to renew purchases.<\/p>\n

The standoff over soybeans started in May, when China halted those purchases<\/a>, raising the prospect of financial ruin across farming states including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana \u2014 key political constituencies for the GOP in the congressional midterm elections next year.<\/p>\n

The White House said last month that Xi committed to buying 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in November and December. But so far, Beijing has only purchased a fraction of that agreed total, NBC reported this month<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat agitates Trump and causes him to react quickly are things that are more domestic and closer to home,\u201d Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii) said. China\u2019s foot-dragging on soybean purchases \u201cis the most triggering because it\u2019s hurting American farmers and consumers, so that\u2019s where we could see the most volatility in the relationship,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

That trigger could come on Feb. 28 \u2014 the new deadline for that 12 million metric ton purchase, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced earlier this month<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment on whether Beijing plans to meet this deadline.<\/p>\n

The White House said one of the aspects of the trade deal it is monitoring is soybean purchases through this growing season.<\/p>\n

The Taiwan tinderbox<\/h4>\n

Beijing\u2019s threats to invade Taiwan are another near-term potential flashpoint, even though the U.S. hasn\u2019t prioritized the issue in its national security strategy or talks between Xi and Trump<\/a>.<\/p>\n

China has increased its preparations for a Taiwan invasion this year. In October, the Chinese military debuted a new military barge system<\/a> that addresses some of the challenges of landing on the island\u2019s beaches by deploying a bridge for cargo ships to unload tanks or trucks directly onto the shore.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina is tightening the noose around the island,\u201d said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who joined a bipartisan congressional delegation to China in September and returned calling for better communications<\/a> between the U.S. and Chinese militaries.<\/p>\n

Some of the tension around Taiwan is playing out in the wider region, as Beijing pushes to expand its military reach and its influence. Chinese fighter jets locked radar<\/a> \u2014 a prelude to opening fire \u2014 on Japanese aircraft earlier this month in the East China Sea.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a real chance that Xi overplays his hand on antagonizing our allies, particularly Australia and Japan,\u201d Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) said. \u201cThere is still a line [China] cannot cross without making this truce impossible to sustain.\u201d<\/p>\n

The U.S. has a decades-long policy of \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d<\/a> under which it refuses to spell out how the U.S. would respond to Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Trump has also adhered to that policy. \u201cYou\u2019ll find out if it happens,\u201d Trump said in an interview with 60 Minutes in November.<\/a><\/p>\n

More export restrictions on the way<\/h4>\n

Beijing has eased its export restrictions on rare earths \u2014 metallic elements essential to both civilian and military applications \u2014 but could reimpose those blocks at any time.<\/p>\n

Ten of the 25 lawmakers who spoke to Blue Light News said they suspect Beijing will reimpose those export curbs as a convenient pressure point in the coming months.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the center of the crack in the truce is China\u2019s ability to levy export restrictions, especially its chokehold on the global supply of rare earths and other critical minerals,\u201d Rep. Andr\u00e9 Carson (D-Ind.) said.<\/p>\n

Others are worried China will choose to expand its export controls to another product category for which it has market dominance \u2014 pharmaceuticals. Beijing supplies 80 percent of the U.S. supply<\/a> of active pharmaceutical ingredients \u2014 the foundations of common drugs to treat everything from high blood pressure to type 2 diabetes.<\/p>\n

\u201cOvernight, China could turn off the spigot and many basic pharmaceuticals, including things like aspirin, go away from the supply chain in the United States,\u201d Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas) said.<\/p>\n

China restarted exports of rare earths earlier this month, and its Commerce Ministry pledged \u201ctimely approval\u201d of such exports under a new licensing system, state media reported<\/a>. Beijing has not indicated its intent to restrict the export of pharmaceuticals or their components as a trade weapon. But the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission urged the Food and Drug Administration to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese sources of pharmaceuticals in its annual report last month<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Chinese embassy in Washington didn\u2019t respond to a request for comment.<\/p>\n

Growing Chinese military muscle<\/h4>\n

China\u2019s drive to develop a world-class military that can challenge traditional U.S. dominion of the Indo-Pacific could also derail relations between Washington and Beijing in 2026.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s expanding navy<\/a>\u2014 which, at more than 200 warships, is now the world\u2019s largest<\/a> \u2014 is helping Beijing show off its power across the region.<\/p>\n

The centerpiece of that effort in 2025 has been the addition of a third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which entered into service last month. The Fujian is two-thirds the size of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. But like the Ford, it boasts state-of-the-art electromagnetic catapults<\/a> to launch J-35 and J-15T fighter jets.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration sees that as a threat.<\/p>\n

The U.S. aims to insulate allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific from possible Chinese \u201csustained successful military aggression\u201d powered by Beijing\u2019s \u201chistoric military buildup,\u201d Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this month<\/a> at the Reagan National Defense Forum.<\/p>\n

Five lawmakers said they see China\u2019s increasingly aggressive regional military footprint as incompatible with U.S. efforts to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing in the months ahead.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know the long-term goal of China is really economic and diplomatic and military domination around the world, and they see the United States as an adversary,\u201d Moran said.<\/p>\n

Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The message from Capitol Hill on both sides of the aisle is clear: Get ready for U.S. relations with China to spiral all over again in the new year. The one-year trade truce brokered in October between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is already looking shaky. And lawmakers are preparing to reup […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-congress"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17142\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}