{"id":17037,"date":"2025-12-22T22:02:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T22:02:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/hes-facing-very-long-odds-so-why-are-new-york-republicans-betting-on-bruce-blakeman\/"},"modified":"2025-12-22T22:02:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T22:02:22","slug":"hes-facing-very-long-odds-so-why-are-new-york-republicans-betting-on-bruce-blakeman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/hes-facing-very-long-odds-so-why-are-new-york-republicans-betting-on-bruce-blakeman\/","title":{"rendered":"He\u2019s facing very long odds. So why are New York Republicans betting on Bruce Blakeman?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

ALBANY, New York \u2014 Empire State Republicans expect Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman to turbo charge down-ballot turnout as their party\u2019s gubernatorial nominee \u2014 boosting GOP candidates in crucial suburban swing races as he mounts an otherwise uphill battle to unseat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.<\/p>\n

If Blakeman falls short in an underdog bid, New York Republicans can still be successful in what\u2019s shaping up to be a tough political environment.<\/p>\n

\u201cBlakeman\u2019s top appeal for Republicans, particularly in swing suburbs, can be realized even if he loses,\u201d said Larry Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. \u201cHe could help them on Long Island, Westchester and the Hudson Valley to possibly win seats that could make a difference on which party controls the gavels in Congress. Blakeman is in a position to do that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Who leads the Republican ticket in this deep blue state will have critical implications for competitive House races that stand to determine which party will control the narrowly divided chamber and the course of President Donald Trump\u2019s final two years in office. Blakeman\u2019s coattails offer one possible remedy to GOP headwinds in next year\u2019s midterm elections, as Democrats seize on affordability issues and stoke their base\u2019s anger at the sitting president\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

Blakeman, 70, is now the likely Republican nominee for governor after Rep. Elise Stefanik abruptly suspended<\/u><\/a> her campaign last week. Stefanik and Blakeman are both Trump allies, and the 41-year-old upstate New York House member is far better known statewide.<\/p>\n

Unlike Stefanik, Blakeman hails from a vote rich political bellwether in a state that\u2019s otherwise dominated by Democrats. He is a self-described \u201cpro-choice\u201d Republican<\/u><\/a> \u2014 a stance that will likely attract some independent and conservative Democratic voters. And he has cultivated a mutually beneficial relationship<\/u><\/a> with The New York Post, the influential conservative tabloid that\u2019s part of Trump\u2019s media diet.<\/p>\n

His bid is still considered a longshot against Hochul, who led Blakeman by 25 points<\/u><\/a> in a Siena University poll this month. He remains largely unknown to most New Yorkers, and Republicans are trying to reverse a 23-year losing streak in statewide elections. Blakeman\u2019s prior statewide bid for a U.S. Senate seat ended with a loss.<\/p>\n

In an interview, Blakeman pointed to his ability to win in a large, diverse suburban county as a sign that he can be successful statewide.<\/p>\n

\u201cI want our congressional and Senate and Assembly and local candidates to be successful as well,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you look at the demographics of Nassau County, we match the state almost as a mirror image. I feel very confident we\u2019re going to win.\u201d<\/p>\n

New York Republicans know the power the top of their party\u2019s ticket can wield in a midterm election. Then-Rep. Lee Zeldin\u2019s 2022 campaign came within 6 points of defeating Hochul, but the Long Islander\u2019s strong suburban showing was credited with helping sweep several House Republicans into office. GOP leaders are poised to replicate that plan in 2026 \u2014 a doubling down on a suburban strategy that will also tie all Democrats<\/u><\/a>, including Hochul, to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.<\/p>\n

Republicans want to cast the 34-year-old democratic socialist as a lightning rod. Blakeman, whose day-to-day movements are covered in the Big Apple\u2019s media market, would have easy access to blast the left-leaning mayor\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

The most immediate impact may be on the Long Island districts led by moderate Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen \u2014 both of which will be top GOP targets.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s definitely going to put those two Nassau seats, Suozzi and Gillen seats into play,\u201d said Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar. \u201cI already thought the Gillen seat would be a top seat in the nation. Suozzi has a number of solid candidates nipping at his toes there to begin with. If I was residing in Nassau County and looking for some very positive results in 2026, I think I just hit the jackpot.\u201d<\/p>\n

Suozzi and Gillen campaign representatives pointed to their work with Republicans and ability to win swing seats regardless of the top of the ticket.<\/p>\n

\u201cEveryone knows that Tom Suozzi works across the aisle in Congress to take on the affordability crisis, lower healthcare costs, fix the immigration mess and keep our communities safe,\u201d said Kim Devlin, a Suozzi senior advisor. \u201cThat\u2019s why he was able to win his district, even while Trump won it as well. People are sick of partisanship and that\u2019s why they will re-elect Tom Suozzi.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Gillen campaign offered a similar assessment, noting that she “has a proven record of embracing bipartisanship to achieve results to lower the costs of living and improve public safety.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIn fact, Bruce Blakeman endorsed her and served as her deputy Supervisor,\u201d a campaign spokesperson said. \u201cHer moderate approach, that prioritizes Long Islanders over politics, is why Rep. Gillen will be re-elected in November.”<\/p>\n

Democrats have dominated New York statewide elections since George Pataki left office in 2006. The party lost its final toehold on power in Albany after losing control of the state Senate in 2018. But Republicans continue to maintain competitive races in suburban enclaves, where voters are sensitive to high taxes and concerned about public safety.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019re always more likely to lose than win as a Republican in New York, but I think he’s going to be our strongest statewide candidate since George Pataki,\u201d said Republican operative Chapin Fay. \u201cHe\u2019s winning in a blue area and he\u2019s sort of MAGA without a lot of the baggage.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ensuring success in down-ballot races will be paramount for local Republican leaders with many municipal races switching from low-turnout odd-years to even-numbered years<\/u><\/a>, when more people are expected to vote. That means races for GOP-held seats on some town and village boards and county legislatures may take on a more competitive tilt \u2014 threatening Republican power on the local level.<\/p>\n

In Nassau County, where Blakeman has served as the top elected official since his 2021 victory, Republicans maintain a robust political operation led by Chair Joe Cairo. Despite widespread GOP losses last month, Nassau County Republican candidates overperformed, Blue Light News reported<\/u><\/a>. Those results underscore the potential strength of Cairo\u2019s voter turnout effort.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo me, it\u2019s a good strategy,\u201d said Assemblymember Ed Ra, a Nassau County Republican. \u201cIt helps when we have a couple of House races that we think are going to be very competitive. For us in the Legislature, we think having a suburban, well-known, well-liked candidate is going to be a positive.\u201d<\/p>\n

Long Island is a major prize for any statewide candidate \u2014 and the suburbs have been trending Republican this decade with voters activated by concerns over crime and Democratic-backed criminal justice reforms.<\/p>\n

New York Democrats acknowledge Blakeman\u2019s strength in Nassau County in particular will present a challenge for down-ballot candidates.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe will have an organization working for him in Nassau County,\u201d said Jay Jacobs, who serves as both the statewide Democratic Committee chair and the Nassau County Democratic leader. \u201cBut I would say that while it certainly will be a factor that we have to take into account in those congressional races and down-ballot races, he likes to tout his great win and his perceived popularity, but we don\u2019t see it that way and our polling doesn\u2019t show it that way.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hochul, a Buffalo native, has struggled in the New York City suburbs.<\/p>\n

The governor and Jacobs publicly disagreed over supporting Mamdani\u2019s candidacy as her hand-picked party chair moved to distance suburban Democrats from the incoming mayor. She lost Nassau and Suffolk counties to Zeldin three years ago. Hochul was also forced to retool a controversial home building and zoning proposal amid a bipartisan revolt on Long Island<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hochul on Monday pointed to her efforts addressing crime, housing and jobs on Long Island.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will do very well on Long Island,\u201d she predicted. \u201cI\u2019ve spent an enormous amount of time on Long Island.\u201d<\/p>\n

Blakeman\u2019s political vulnerabilities may still complicate matters for Republicans. A liberal stance on abortion is unnerving conservative voters the party can\u2019t afford to have stay home. Upstate Republicans, slighted by yet another New York City-area nominee, will have to be won over. Trump\u2019s unpopularity<\/u><\/a> in his native state is also expected to work against Blakeman, who was endorsed by the president<\/u><\/a> over the weekend.<\/p>\n

Hochul, too, is expected to be a more formidable incumbent than she was three years ago when she was still a rookie governor and running in a backlash year for her party. The Democratic governor is a formidable fundraiser and she has also worked to build up the state Democrats\u2019 political infrastructure to buttress vulnerable candidates running below her on the ballot.<\/p>\n

Her campaign moved swiftly to define Blakeman, who remains unknown to 70 percent of voters, the Siena poll found<\/u><\/a>, saying Blakeman \u201chas gone all-in on Donald Trump\u2019s deeply unpopular MAGA movement.\u201d And Hochul questioned whether he ultimately would be the nominee.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Republican Party is in such chaos, I\u2019m not even sure he\u2019s going to end up being the nominee. This changes by the hour,\u201d Hochul told Blue Light News at a news conference. \u201cI\u2019m not going to speculate about the prospective opposition, other than knowing it\u2019s going to be a MAGA, Trump-endorsed Republican.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bill Mahoney contributed to this report.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ALBANY, New York \u2014 Empire State Republicans expect Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman to turbo charge down-ballot turnout as their party\u2019s gubernatorial nominee \u2014 boosting GOP candidates in crucial suburban swing races as he mounts an otherwise uphill battle to unseat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. If Blakeman falls short in an underdog bid, New York […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-congress"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17037\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bluelightnews.com\/category\/politics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}