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The Dictatorship

Trump sold mass deportations as an economic bonanza. Here’s the truth.

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Trump sold mass deportations as an economic bonanza. Here’s the truth.

In a recent CBS News interview, incoming “border czar” Tom Homan was confronted with the question of whether the benefits of mass-deporting millions of undocumented immigrants were worth the cost. He responded with a question of his own, “What price do you put on national security?”

It’s a question that Americans might be asking pretty soon themselves. Is the price of deporting millions of undocumented immigrants worth the cost?

Undocumented immigrants are far less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans.

During the 2024 presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump described crackdowns on illegal immigration as an essential tool for reducing crime, increasing employment and even lowering housing costs. Never mind that undocumented immigrants are far less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans and that the threat to national security from their presence in the country is minimal at best.

What was omitted from Trump’s anti-immigrant diatribes were the significant economic costs of deporting millions of undocumented immigrants — and the meager benefits.

According to one estimate from the pro-immigration advocacy group American Immigration Council, arresting, detaining and deporting the 13.3 million people who are either in the United States illegally — or are in the country temporarily without legal status — could cost $315 billion.

Trump campaign officials have said they don’t intend to deport every undocumented immigrant in the country immediately. Considering that the U.S. has never deported more than a half-million people in a single year, it would likely be impossible.

However, even deporting 1 million people yearly could cost nearly $90 billion. Apprehending immigrants, detaining them, court procedures and transporting them out of the country makes mass deportation a complicated and costly endeavor. Indeed, the estimated cost of deporting a single undocumented immigrant is estimated to run as high as $13,000.

Trump has said as recently as this week that he wants to enlist the military in his mass deportation plans, but that is easier said than done. Trump will have to jump through various legal hoops to overcome the impediments to using the uniformed military for domestic law enforcement. To achieve his anti-immigration goals, Trump will likely need Congress to authorize billions of dollars in new spending and hire tens of thousands of new government employees.

Let’s suppose, for a moment, that Trump is actually successful at getting the mass deportation project off the ground. In Trump’s words, there can be “no price tag” on such an effort. In reality, there is a price — and it will quickly be felt by American consumers.

To achieve his anti-immigration goals, Trump will likely need Congress to authorize billions of dollars in new spending.

Today, undocumented immigrants represent 5% of the U.S. workforce, and because two-thirds of them are between the ages of 25 and 54 (compared to less than 40% of the U.S.-born population), they are overrepresented in the workforce.

Many undocumented immigrants take on dangerous, menial and low-paying jobs. They are maids and housekeepers, construction laborers and agricultural workers. Indeed, a whopping 45 percent of agricultural workers are undocumented along with 15 percent of construction workers.

If millions of undocumented immigrants are forced to leave the country, these industries will bear the brunt — as will consumers.

Even if they aren’t deported, fear of getting caught up in workplace raids might push some of the undocumented to no longer show up for work. Either way, farms, construction companies and restaurants may find themselves short-staffed and unable to bring on new workers at a time of low unemployment.

Whatever the case, the labor disruptions will almost certainly lead to higher prices on everything from food to housing. And working class Americans — many of whom voted for Trump — will get hit the hardest.

Moreover, if restaurants are losing cooks and busboys and construction companies can’t find laborers, other native-born Americans such as waiters, construction managers, and architects will be directly affected as businesses shut down or take on fewer projects.

In his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, Trump said, “Americans are being squeezed out of the labor force, and their jobs are taken.” That’s not really true, since the undocumented often take on jobs that most native-born Americans simply don’t want. If Trump is successful at deporting millions of undocumented workers, his words will be prophetic; tens of thousands of Americans may soon find themselves out of work.

There are other indirect costs that many Americans who voted for mass deportation probably didn’t consider. For example, many undocumented immigrants work in child care. If they are forced to leave the country, the number of women in the labor force could decrease.

Then there are the tax implications. In 2022, undocumented immigrants paid close to $50 billion in federal taxes and nearly $30 billion in state taxes. They also contributed more than $28 billion to Social Security and Medicare (even though they don’t benefit from those programs).

Migrants are also consumers. Removing them from the country means decreased spending, further undermining the economy.

By nearly any appreciable measure, immigration to the United States is a net economic positive, contributing to higher growth, greater productivity and even a reduced budget deficit.

Conversely, mass deportations will almost certainly lead to slower economic growth, increased unemployment and, ironically, higher inflation.

While the economic costs of mass deportation are significant, we cannot ignore the moral and humanitarian costs. Millions of undocumented Americans have native-born American children.

Migrants are also consumers. Removing them from the country means decreased spending, further undermining the economy.

Are Americans prepared to, again, watch parents ripped away from their children simply to fulfill Trump’s campaign promise? There are undocumented immigrants in practically every community in America. They are neighbors, friends, little league dads and soccer moms. Will Americans who voted for Trump be as blasé about the impact of mass deportation when it directly affects those they know personally?

Mass deportation might be popular on the campaign trail but in practice it is a recipe for an immediate and significant political backlash.

As much as many Trump voters say they wanted mass deportation, few seemed to understand or appreciate the ultimate consequences.

In short measure, they’re about to find out.

Michael A. Cohen

Michael A. Cohen is a columnist for BLN and a Senior Fellow and co-director of the Afghanistan Assumptions Project at the Center for Strategic Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University. He writes the political newsletter Truth and Consequences. He has been a columnist at The Boston Globe, The Guardian and Foreign Policy, and he is the author of three books, the most recent being“Clear and Present Safety: The World Has Never Been Better and Why That Matters to Americans.”

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The Dictatorship

US intel official says Iran’s regime still intact but refuses to discuss talks with Trump about war

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US intel official says Iran’s regime still intact but refuses to discuss talks with Trump about war

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. government’s top intelligence official told lawmakers Wednesday that Iran’s government “appears to be intact but largely degraded” yet repeatedly dodged questions about whether President Donald Trump had been warned about the fallout from the weeks-old war, including Iran’s attacks on Gulf nations and its effective closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Tulsi Gabbardthe director of national intelligence, also stated in prepared remarks to the Senate Intelligence Committee that U.S. attacks on Iran last year had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program and that there had been no effort since then to rebuild that capability.

The statement was notable given Trump’s repeated assertions that a war with Iran was necessary to head off what he said was an imminent threat from the Islamic Republic. Gabbard pointedly said that conclusion was the president’s alone to draw as she declined to directly answer whether the intelligence community had likewise assessed that Iran’s nuclear system presented an imminent risk to the United States.

Watch live the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats.

“It is not the intelligence community’s responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat,” she said at one point.

From left, FBI Director Kash Patel, Defense Intelligence Agency Director James Adams III, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Acting Commander of the U.S. Cyber Command William Hartman, listen during the Senate Committee on Intelligence hearings to examine worldwide threats on Capitol Hill Wednesday, March 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

From left, FBI Director Kash Patel, Defense Intelligence Agency Director James Adams III, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Acting Commander of the U.S. Cyber Command William Hartman, listen during the Senate Committee on Intelligence hearings to examine worldwide threats on Capitol Hill Wednesday, March 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia shot back: “It is precisely your responsibility to determine what constitutes a threat to the United States.”

The testimony came at the first of two congressional hearings held each year to offer the public a glimpse into the largely secret operations of the government’s intelligence agencies and the threats they confront.

The hearings this week take place at a time of scrutiny over the war with Iran and heightened concerns about terrorism at home after recent attacks at a Michigan synagogue and a Virginia university. Wednesday’s hearing also came a day after the resignation of Joe Kent as director of the National Counterterrorism Center. Kent said he could not “in good conscience” back the war and did not agree that Iran posed an imminent threat.

But the hours-long hearing offered few revelations from Gabbard, who repeatedly declined to discuss conversations with Trump, or other senior intelligence officials who testified.

“I am very disappointed,” said an exasperated Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “It’s the only one time of year the public gets to hear from you guys in this kind of setting.”

Gabbard deflected questions about intelligence given to Trump

A frequent line of questioning for Democrats: What intelligence, if any, had been given to Trump about the war’s potential consequences? Trump, for instance, has said he was surprised that Iran responded to strikes from the United States by attacking Arab nations and has been contending with the economic impact of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a body of water connecting the Persian Gulf to the world’s oceans and a vital passageway for oil and gas.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe testifies during the Senate Committee on Intelligence hearings on Capitol Hill Wednesday, March 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

CIA Director John Ratcliffe testifies during the Senate Committee on Intelligence hearings on Capitol Hill Wednesday, March 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a post on X that Trump was “fully briefed” on the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and that the Pentagon has been planning for the possibility of Iran closing it “for DECADES.”

But Trump’s plan to secure the waterway is unclear, especially after he said this week that NATO and most other allies had rejected his calls to help secure it. Iran has said the strait is open except to the U.S. and its allies.

Democrats got few direct answers when they pressed administration officials on what Trump understood about that possibility, with Gabbard saying she would not divulge her conversations with him and CIA Director John Ratcliffe observing that he had been in countless briefings with the president.

“We’re trying to figure out if the president knew what the downside was of the Strait of Hormuz being closed,” said Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat. “Did he know this was going to happen or did he just disregard it?”

Gabbard appeared to try to thread a needle between emphasizing the intelligence community’s views of Iran’s risks — she said, for instance, that internal tensions would continue to increase even if the regime’s leadership remained intact — and not completely echoing the president’s arguments of an imminent threat.

At one point, Warner noted that Gabbard, in her prepared written statement submitted to the committee, said Iran’s nuclear enrichment program had been obliterated in strikes last year, but her opening remarks on Wednesday did not use that language.

He asked whether she had omitted that reference to conform to Trump’s claims of an imminent threat. Gabbard insisted that she had skipped some of her written statement in the interest of time.

FBI Director Kash Patel listens during the Senate Committee on Intelligence hearings on Capitol Hill Wednesday, March 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

FBI Director Kash Patel listens during the Senate Committee on Intelligence hearings on Capitol Hill Wednesday, March 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Trump has sought to distance himself from Kent. Ratcliffe tried to do the same Wednesday when he was asked whether intelligence supported Kent’s assessment that Iran was not an imminent threat. “The intelligence reflects the contrary,” Ratcliffe said.

Questions about other attacks and Gabbard’s presence at an FBI search

Gabbard and Ratcliffe fielded the majority of questions, but other witnesses included the heads of the National Security Agency and Defense Intelligence Agency, as well as FBI Director Kash Patel, who was pressed about the terrorism threat amid a spate of attacks this month. Those include a man with a past terrorism conviction who opened fire inside an Old Dominion University classroom in Virginia and a Lebanese-born man in Michigan who drove his car into a synagogue.

One subject that did not receive attention: a deadly missile strike on an elementary school in Iran, which people familiar with the matter have said the U.S. likely carried out as a result of outdated intelligence.

Apart from Iran, Gabbard was pressed on her presence at an FBI search in January of the main election hub in Fulton County, Georgia, where agents seized voter data related to the 2020 presidential election. Her appearance at a domestic law enforcement operation raised eyebrows given that Gabbard’s office is meant to focus squarely on foreign threats.

Warner described her appearance there as part of an “organized effort to misuse her national security powers to interfere in domestic politics and potentially provide a pretext for the president’s unconstitutional efforts to seize control of the upcoming elections.”

Gabbard responded that she was present for the search at the request of the president but did not participate, though she later said she helped to oversee it.

The House Intelligence Committee will hold its own threats hearing on Thursday.

_____

Associated Press writers Mike Catalini, Ben Finley and Michelle L. Price contributed to this report.

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The Dictatorship

How Trump’s tariffs have hurt manufacturers instead of helping them

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How Trump’s tariffs have hurt manufacturers instead of helping them

WASHINGTON (AP) — Jay Allen is a fan of President Donald Trumpand voted for him on the belief that the Republican would cut taxes and trim regulations, helping his manufacturing business in northeast Arkansas.

But the tariffs at the core of Trump’s economic agenda have wreaked havoc on his company, Allen Engineering Corp., which makes industrial equipment used to install, finish and pave concrete. The import taxes have raised the costs of engines, steel, gearboxes and clutches made abroad that Allen needs to build power trowels that can sell for up to $100,000 each.

Jay Allen, owner of Allen Engineering Corporation, poses for a portrait Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

Jay Allen, owner of Allen Engineering Corporation, poses for a portrait Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

Allen’s experience embodies a growing body of evidence that the tariffs that Trump said would help American factories are, in fact, squashing many of them. The problem could get worse as the administration scrambles to craft new tariffs to replace the emergency import taxes that the Supreme Court ruled illegal in February.

Allen said he ran his company at a loss in 2025 because of tariffs. His payroll has fallen to 140 workers from a peak of 205. To get by this year, he has hiked prices by 8% to 10%, even though that might mean fewer sales.

“What’s really sad is the unintended consequences of his tariffs are hurting manufacturing in our country,” said Allen. “Unfortunately, the working-class people are getting squeezed.”

A welder is seen inside the Allen Engineering Corporation plant Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

A welder is seen inside the Allen Engineering Corporation plant Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

Manufacturing jobs have declined during Trump’s first year back

Trump’s core rationale for tariffs has been that they would force more factories to open in the U.S. and would generate enough revenue to close federal budget deficits. But that hasn’t materialized.

Factories continue to shed workers, with 98,000 manufacturing jobs lost during Trump’s first full 12 months back in the White House. American companies that foot the bill for tariffs are now suing the Trump administration for more than $130 billion in tariff refunds. Meanwhile, the federal deficit is projected to climb over the next decade.

The White House maintains that construction spending is high, more workers are being hired to build factories, new investments are being made and labor productivity in manufacturing is increasing — which could eventually fuel a factory revival.

“It takes time to get production online, and therefore it will be some more time before we fully materialize the benefits of the president’s policies,” Pierre Yared, the acting chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in an email.

Assembly of a riding trowel is seen in the assembly department of the Allen Engineering Corporation plant Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

Assembly of a riding trowel is seen in the assembly department of the Allen Engineering Corporation plant Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

The Allen Engineering Corporation plant is seen Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

The Allen Engineering Corporation plant is seen Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

Construction is up — but that’s due to Biden’s bill

Some of the bright spots in construction cited by the White House appear to be the result of programs launched by then-President Joe Biden, a Democrat.

Factory construction spending began to accelerate in 2022 with the anticipation of government support from Biden’s CHIPS and Science Actwhich included big subsidies for computer chip plants. The law was a primary contributor to a historic surge in the annualized rate of construction spending on manufacturing facilities, said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of the economic policy group Employ America.

Construction spending on factories has slipped during Trump’s presidency, but the pace remains relatively high largely because of continuing work on Biden-era projects in Arizona, Texas and Idaho, Amarnath said.

Amarnath has also gone through the interviews regional Federal Reserve banks have held with businesses. Those comments show some companies might expand by taking advantage of Trump’s tax breaks on investments in equipment and new buildings.

But while the pharmaceutical drug sector might be expanding, the comments show no overall uptick in manufacturing because of Trump’s tariffs.

“You don’t get the sense that there is this new manufacturing renaissance underway,” Amarnath said.

An American flag and the Pledge of Allegiance is seen inside the Allen Engineering Corporation plant Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

An American flag and the Pledge of Allegiance is seen inside the Allen Engineering Corporation plant Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

Uncertainty in tariffs has deterred investments

Based on orders, proclamations and other statements, Trump has taken more than 50 actions on tariffs so far — and that tally doesn’t include the tariff threats he regularly makes on social media or in conversations with reporters but hasn’t formally put in place.

The flurry of announcementsreversals, exemptions and legal challenges — as well as Trump’s decision to bypass Congress to impose tariffs — has made it difficult for smaller manufacturing companies to plan.

For example, Allen Engineering imports its 75-horsepower diesel engines from Germany. Building them in the United States would require a $20 million investment — a huge risk if the status of the tariffs is unclear.

Are engine-makers “going to spend that kind of money to move production from Germany to the U.S. when they don’t know what the landscape is going to be in three years?” Allen said. “I don’t know who is going to be in the White House, and what the stance is going to be on these tariffs.”

Joseph Steinberg, an economist at the University of Toronto, said research shows that under the best-case scenario “it would take a decade for manufacturing employment to rise above where it was before tariffs were enacted.”

But Steinberg said “the current situation is nothing like the ‘best case,’” since U.S. trade policy is unsettled and that leaves companies reluctant to expand.

The main entrance to the Allen Engineering Corporation is seen Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

The main entrance to the Allen Engineering Corporation is seen Monday, March 16, 2026, in Paragould, Ark. (AP Photo/Kevin Wurm)

Equipment makers have been hit hard by rising steel costs

About 98% of U.S. manufacturing establishments have fewer than 200 workers, according to Census Bureau data, and don’t have the kind of name-brand recognition or lobbying heft to minimize the damage from tariffs that big players like Apple, General Motors and Ford possess.

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers in February reported that America’s share of global manufacturing severely lags China’s. The group has urged tax credits to offset the expense of tariffs, and specifically called for tariff relief on raw materials, parts and components that cannot be acquired domestically at scale.

Steel tariffs have been a particular concern. Trump imposed them last March and hiked them to 50% in June. They were not affected by the Supreme Court decision.

Trump has credited the tariffs with restoring profits at American steel mills. But they have hurt companies that use that steel, like Calder Brothers in South Carolina, which makes equipment to pave asphalt.

“The steel tariffs were the first thing that got my attention,” said Glen Calder, the company’s president. “My steel pricing jumped 25% two weeks before the tariffs went into effect for domestic steel. The market price just jumped. It has stayed elevated.”

Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus has grown

Part of Trump’s push to expand manufacturing was to help American companies compete against China — a country he plans to visit this spring for talks with its leader, Xi Jinping.

But the U.S. manufacturing trade imbalance rose last year under Trump instead of narrowing. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus with the world climbed to a record $1.2 trillion.

This trend exposes one of the big problems with Trump’s tariff strategy, said Lori Wallach, director of the Rethink Trade program at American Economic Liberties Project. She noted that he largely bypassed Congress and failed to address gaps in the World Trade Organization’s rules for the trade frameworks that he negotiated with other countries.

Instead of working with partners to ensure there were penalties for foreign manufacturers with abusive labor practices and unfair subsidies, Trump chose against rallying partners to counter China as a unified group. American manufacturers are at a disadvantage, Wallach argued, because there is not a coalition of nations that can impose penalties for currency manipulation, subsidies and schemes to evade tariffs.

“The general revulsion of this administration to international cooperation means they’re trying to do it alone,” Wallach said.

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The Dictatorship

Garcia explains why lawmakers walked out of ‘fake’ Bondi hearing

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Garcia explains why lawmakers walked out of ‘fake’ Bondi hearing

The top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee joined MS NOW on Wednesday, just hours after lawmakers walked out of a closed-door briefing with top Justice Department officials about the Epstein files.

Appearing on “The Weeknight,” Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif, called the meeting with Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche a “complete travesty” and accused his Republican colleagues of putting politics above obtaining justice for Jeffrey Epstein’s victims.

The House Oversight Committee recently bucked Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., voting to subpoena the attorney general over her department’s Epstein investigation. However, Garcia said Bondi has yet to commit to complying with the subpoena and testifying under oath.

“The American public should be very clear that Pam Bondi is leading a White House cover-up, and right now the Republican majority is assisting them,” Garcia said.

The California Democrat said committee members were informed about Bondi’s appearance only 24 hours prior and that he asked her at the start of the meeting if she planned to return.

“The attorney general would not commit to following the subpoena and coming in under oath,” he said. “Yet she wants to come in and set up some type of fake hearing where we ask questions, but it’s not transcribed, it’s not under oath, and it’s not shown to the American people.”

The congressman also spoke about a heated exchange between Comer and Rep. Summer Lee, during which the committee’s chairman accused the Pennsylvania Democrat of “b—-ing” and wasting the committee’s time.

“I’m obviously not going to repeat what chairman Comer said, but it was disgusting and not a way to talk to a colleague,” Garcia said, adding that Democrats were “not going to allow our members to be disrespected that way.”

“And we’re certainly not going to allow the attorney general to play games and not sit for an under-oath deposition with a subpoena that was bipartisan,” he continued.

Garcia said despite Wednesday’s setback, he and his fellow Democrats would do everything in their power to ensure Bondi returns to Capitol Hill and delivers testimony under oath.

“I want to be very clear that Attorney General Bondi will be in front of our committee,” he said.

“They’re dealing with the wrong people,” Garcia said, pledging that Democrats would “not rest and stop until we get justice for the survivors.”

You can watch Garcia’s full interview in the clip at the top of the page.

Allison Detzel is an editor/producer for MS NOW. She was previously a segment producer for “AYMAN” and “The Mehdi Hasan Show.”

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