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The Dictatorship

The Trump ‘vibe shift’ was always a mirage. These polls prove it.

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The Trump ‘vibe shift’ was always a mirage. These polls prove it.

Donald Trump is finding fewer and fewer supplicants for his series of extortion attempts, with Harvard University becoming the latest institution to reject the administration’s demands. As with most things Harvard-related, the school’s primacy is overstated: Michigan State University, New York public schools and other education institutions have already pushed back against White House overreach. The schools are not alone: From law firms to corner offices, some of America’s most prestigious institutions are finding their spines — or at least their voices — in the face of Trump’s power grabs.

If anything, though, these institutions are trailing popular sentiment. Many observers treated Trump’s victory in November as a profound change in American politics. At the most extreme, the president and his allies tried to claim that his victory — the third-narrowest since World War II — represented a sweeping “mandate.” Even some of his critics argued his second term brought with it a “vibe shift.”

But the “vibe shift” was always a mirage. And even before Trump’s 100th day in office, the mirage is already disappearing.

Implicit in this narrative was the idea that Trump and his agenda had achieved enduring popular support. Oligarchs like Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and media owners like The Los Angeles Times’ Patrick Soon-Shiong used this reasoning to shift their platforms right.

Implicit in this narrative was the idea that Trump and his agenda had achieved enduring popular support.

In fact, the president’s second-term approval ratings look eerily similar to his first: a poor start that only gets worse. Trump’s initial favorability ratings in January were the second-worst of any presidency, just slightly better than his previous administration. By mid-March, his net approval was again negative; by early April, his average disapproval was already more than 50%.

The explanation for this must start with the economy, which remains voters’ top concern. (In a recent Gallup surveyfor example, nearly 90% of Americans were concerned about the economy.) After promising to bring prices down “on day one,” the president has done little but lie about egg prices — which, yes, are still rising. Instead, Trump has blundered ahead with the most distinctive part of his economic platform: sweeping tariffs. But the more voters have seen, the less they’ve liked. Compiling more than a dozen polls taken after this month’s “Liberation Day,” former 538 editor G. Elliot Morris calculated that Trump’s approval rating dropped 6 percentage points compared to the same pollsters’ previous surveys.

A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week is typical of this group: 75% say the tariffs will raise prices in the short term, 65% say they’ll make the economy worse and 54% say Trump is already more responsible for the state of the economy than Joe Biden, just two months after the latter left office. Even the intended beneficiaries of tariffs — according to Trump, at least — are skeptical: In a Washington Post survey of manufacturing workers, 57% said his tariffs would “hurt your job and career,” while just 22% said the duties would help.

While voters soured quickly on Trump’s economic policies, his handling of immigration has seemed a bright spot for many. But as with the broader “vibe shift” narrative, the signs of a mirage have long been present. Even before the election, most voters opposed the specifics of Trump’s immigration policiessuch as deporting immigrants with no criminal records or those who are parents of U.S. citizens. As cases such as Kilmar Abrego Garcia and Mahmoud Khalil highlight MAGA’s cruel immigration policies, Trump’s strength on the issue has ebbed. In a new Quinnipiac pollfor instance, Trump’s net approval on immigration issues is minus 5%; on deportations specifically, it’s minus 10%.

When politicians and pundits try to conjure a more pro-MAGA vibe shift, they not only overstate the popularity of Trump’s agenda, but they also understate the scale and the fury of his opposition. The Democrats who were quickest to recognize political reality are being rewarded. Sen. Cory Booker seized the country’s attention with his record-breaking speechand Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have drawn record crowds on their cross-country tour, even in red states.

Little comes more naturally to Trump than bluffing about his power.

On the other side of the aisle, as I wrote last weekthe tariff fiasco has lessened the taboo for GOP lawmakers criticizing Trump. And after weeks of Trump corralling dissident Republicans in Congress with his word alone, House Speaker Mike Johnson had to put his job on the line to avoid an embarrassing defeat on an all-important budget vote.

That the Trump agenda was never as popular as recent conventional wisdom would claim does not lessen the damage done. Nor will it stop the president and his billionaire allies from plowing on with their destruction of government and civil society. Little comes more naturally to Trump than bluffing about his power.

But the truth of Trump’s unpopularity is instructive in how the rest of us respond to his destruction. Those that already caved to the administration’s demands, or who are in the midst of caving, look more foolish by the day. Those who cover his agenda — including, yes, his immigration policies — as if it is popular do a disservice to their readers. And those who encourage his opponents to hold off protesting, until Trump sinks himself, ignore that that day has already come.

James Downu

James Downie is a writer and editor for BLN Daily. He was an editor and columnist for The Washington Post and has also written for The New Republic and Foreign Policy.

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The Dictatorship

‘We are all afraid’: GOP’s Lisa Murkowski admits she fears retaliation

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‘We are all afraid’: GOP’s Lisa Murkowski admits she fears retaliation

More than any Republican in Congress, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska can be counted on for candor about the state of her party in the era of Donald Trump. In fact, late last year, about a month after the president won a second term, the senator conceded that she felt “more comfortable” with no party label than with “an identity as a Republican.”

The comments came a few years after Murkowski also saidin the wake of the Jan. 6 attack, “If the Republican Party has become nothing more than the party of Trump, I sincerely question whether this is the party for me.”

This week, the Alaskan raised eyebrows again with comments she hasn’t made publicly before. The Anchorage Daily News reported:

U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski told a room full of Alaska nonprofit leaders that the tumult of tariffs, executive orders, court battles, and cuts to federal services under the Trump administration are exceptionally concerning. “We are all afraid,” Murkowski said, taking a long pause. “It’s quite a statement. But we are in a time and a place where I certainly have not been here before. And I’ll tell ya, I’m oftentimes very anxious myself about using my voice, because retaliation is real. And that’s not right.”

A video of the clip reinforced the impression that the senator chose her words with care.

At the same event, Murkowski described some of the Trump administration’s recent moves as “unlawful” and “against the law.” She similarly expressed concern about the degree to which USAID had “just been obliterated,” described proposed GOP cuts to Medicaid as “devastating” and efforts to politicize the federal judiciary have brought the country to “a very dangerous place.”

Just as notably, the four-term Republican lawmaker acknowledged that Congress has allowed the executive branch to claim too much power. “It’s called the checks and balances. And right, now we are not balancing as the Congress,” Murkowski said.

In recent days, as coverage of the senator’s comments circulated, the broader conversation about her perspective has generally fallen into two camps. One was sympathetic: Many observers have noted that it’s exceedingly rare for any congressional Republican to make comments like these, out loud and in public, and that Murkowski is to be applauded for acknowledging the fears of retaliation that members feel.

The alternative reaction to her comments has been far less charitable: Murkowski is in a position of influence, and she could be using her power far more effectively to push back against the White House, its abuses, its corruption and its authoritarian tactics. There’s nothing wrong with applauding her comments, the argument goes, but it’s just as important to press the Alaskan on her support for Trump-backed bills and some of the White House’s highly unqualified nominees.

Indeed, let’s not forget that when the Republican Party’s far-right budget plan came to the Senate floor a couple of weeks ago, two GOP senator joined Democrats in voting against it — and Murkowski wasn’t one of the two.

Which reaction is the right one? I don’t want this to sound like a cop-out, but I think both are right. I’m glad Murkowski occasionally speaks out like this, and if it inspires some of her GOP colleagues to do the same, it could make a difference. I also believe that if Murkowski recognizes the seriousness of our current circumstances, it’s incumbent on her to do more than just offer candid comments to her constituents.

As the senator no doubt knows, she has other options — legislatively, procedurally, tactically, etc. — and if she really wants to shake things up, Murkowski can announce that she’s ending her formal affiliation with the GOP altogether, even if she continues to caucus with the party.

It’s genuinely awful that she’s afraid and feeling “very anxious,” and I couldn’t agree more that the circumstances that have led to these fears are “not right.” But it’s within the Alaskan’s power to help force a change, and I’ll continue to hope that she takes advantage of these opportunities.

Steve legs

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an BLN political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”

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The Dictatorship

Team Trump reportedly contacted the IRS about a ‘high-profile friend of the president’

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Team Trump reportedly contacted the IRS about a ‘high-profile friend of the president’

Election conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell has been in the news quite a bit lately. A few weeks ago, for example, the MyPillow founder expressed an interest in launching a Republican gubernatorial campaign in Minnesota.

A couple of weeks later, someone described as a “correspondent” for Lindell’s media operation appeared at a White House press briefing and asked a cringeworthy and overly sycophantic question about Donald Trump, sparking widespread ridicule. This week, the conspiracy theorist was back in the news, telling a judge he’s struggling to pay court-imposed sanctions because his finances are “in ruins” and “nobody will lend me any money anymore.”

But things aren’t all bad for Lindell. As The Washington Post reportedhe apparently still has friends in high places.

A Trump administration official in March asked the IRS to review audits of two “high profile” friends of President Donald Trump, including MyPillow chief executive and conservative political personality Mike Lindell, according to two people familiar with the request and records obtained by The Washington Post

According to the report, which has not been independently verified by BLN or NBC News, David Eisner, a Trump appointee at the Treasury Department, contacted senior IRS staff last month about an audit Lindell was facing. Soon after, the same official reportedly contacted the tax agency again, this time about a Republican state senator in Kansas named Rick Kloos.

Eisner reportedly used the phrase “high profile friend of the president” to describe Eisner and Kloos, and wrote that each was “concerned that he may have been inappropriately targeted.”

A related report in The New York Times noted that the IRS did not act on Eisner’s outreach, but the efforts “alarmed agency staff that President Trump hoped to use the tax collector to protect his friends and allies from normal scrutiny, concerns that have only grown as the Trump administration clears out agency leadership and pushes it to carry out Mr. Trump’s directions.”

And therein lies the point: If the IRS is going to survive and maintain its integrity, it must maintain its independence. The agency cannot be a political weapon — though, in the Harvard casethere’s reason to believe Trump sees it as a partisan tool — and just as notably, it can’t offer special treatment to the president’s pals and those politically aligned with the White House.

Nina Olson, who served as the national taxpayer advocate across multiple Democratic and Republican administrations, told the Post of the allegations, “That’s so inappropriate. In my 18 years as the national taxpayer advocate with over 4 million cases that came into the Taxpayer Advocate Service, in that time with taxpayers experiencing significant problems with the IRS, I have never had a Treasury official write me about a case.”

A spokesperson for Trump’s Treasury Department made no effort to deny the claims, instead telling the Times that Eisner “acted appropriately” and simply shared “relevant information” with the IRS. (Eisner did not respond to requests for comment, the Post reported, and a representative from the IRS declined to comment.)

Kloos’ attorney, meanwhile, told the Post that the Kansas legislator is “certainly not a close friend of the president”; he doesn’t know why Eisner contacted the IRS on his behalf; and he’s been engaged in a yearslong court fight over his organization’s tax-exempt status.

As for Lindell, he suggested that this is all just a misunderstanding and that the Treasury Department had “misconstrued” his request, which he said actually stemmed from a problem he was having with the Employee Retention Credit.

I don’t imagine we’ve heard the last of this one.

Steve legs

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an BLN political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”

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The Dictatorship

‘We will follow the law’: Border czar Tom Homan on deportations

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‘We will follow the law’: Border czar Tom Homan on deportations
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