Democrats seem to have been outplayed by Republicans when it comes to managing the latest government shutdown battle. And perhaps their biggest mistake was underestimating House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. By a 54-46 vote on Friday night, the Senate approved the funding bill to keep the government open that the Republican-controlled House had passed on Tuesday.

This shutdown cycle was not without drama. On Thursday, the evening before the deadlineSenate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer reversed the position he’d taken earlier in the week and vowed to help pass the House’s short-term continuing resolution bill. This must have been a tough call for the New York Democrat. As Schumer wrote in an op-ed for The New York Times“As bad as passing the continuing resolution would be, I believe a government shutdown is far worse.”

And while Schumer did not ultimately vote yes on the bill itself, his advocacy and yes vote on the cloture motion likely secured Friday night’s outcome.

On Friday morning at least, the Democrats were torn into two camps: fight Trump tooth and nail, which would lead to a shutdown and the potential chaos and pain that would bring, or swallow a partisan CR and at least keep the lights on. There were also specific fears that a shutdown would allow President Donald Trump and Elon Musk to accelerate some of their most aggressive agenda items, including mass federal layoffs and governmental reorganizing. “Musk has already said he wants a shutdown, and public reporting has shown he is already making plans to expedite his destruction of key government programs and services,” said Schumer from the Senate floor on Thursday.

Schumer calculated ultimately the Democrats would be blamed for the impact on “the most vulnerable Americans, those who rely on federal programs to feed their families, get medical care and stay financially afloat. Communities that depend on government services to function will suffer.”

However, in many ways, the die had already been cast. On Tuesday night, Johnson passed the spending bill with nearly unanimous GOP support. And then promptly sent his members home.

The speaker certainly had some help from both the president and White House officials. Trump himself was working the phoneswhile Vice President JD Vance reportedly “assured Republican members that Trump would continue cutting federal funding with his Department of Government Efficiency initiative and pursue impoundment — that is, holding back money appropriated by Congress.”

Johnson is often thought of as the accidental speaker. And it’s true that he was pulled out of quasi-obscurity after the caucus took down his predecessor Kevin McCarthy just 17 months ago. At the time of his elevation, Johnson had no leadership experience, and the political class had very low expectations. But he had Trump in his corner.

(Trump did blow up a bill in December carefully negotiated by Johnson and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. But Johnson eventually prevailed, with Democratic votes, and a spending bill was passed.)

Last December’s funding bill was always a temporary stopgap measure that would only fund the federal government through March 13, 2025. More surprising was that Johnson was able to get the House to pass its budget outline last monthwith only losing a single vote. This should have served as a canary in the coal mine moment for Democrats.

The real blunder Schumer made was miscalculating just how good Johnson has become at playing political hardball. The thought of Johnson passing a six-month continuing resolution with just Republican votes seemed highly unlikely last year, and that was what both Jeffries and Schumer were counting on. They were operating on the premise that, just like with the last CR, Republicans were going to need Democratic votes to get the bill to the president’s desk, leaving room for negotiations.

Johnson defied the odds and passed the CR, losing just one Republican vote, and picking up an extra yes vote from Maine Democrat Jared Golden. That left Schumer floundering, and with only one option to keep the government open.

There is a lesson to be learned here, and now would be a good time for Democratic leadership — as well as Senate Majority Leader John Thune — to recognize Johnson’s skills. They don’t have to like him or agree with him, but going forward they should respect him, and maybe even fear him.

Susan Del Pure

Susan Del Percio is a Republican strategist and a political analyst for NBC News and BLN.