President Donald Trump is reportedly frustrated with Russian leader Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war and is considering new sanctions and indirect military support via sales to NATO countries. But in his half year back in office, U.S. policy, on balance, has still shifted in an anti-Ukraine, anti-democracy, anti-NATO, pro-authoritarian, Russia-favorable direction.

“We get a lot of bulls— thrown at us by Putin,” Trump told reporters at a White House meeting. “He’s very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”

But that’s always been the case. Ukraine supporters have said so since the beginning (it’s part of why they chose to support Ukraine).

So Trump is frustrated, but with what?

When Putin ordered that over three years ago, Trump gushed that it was “savvy” and “genius.”

Not that Russia aggressively invaded Ukraine. When Putin ordered that over three years ago, Trump gushed that it was “savvy” and “genius.” He has never denounced Russia’s attack as aggressive, illegal or wrong, nor expressed support for independence and sovereignty on principle. If anything, it’s been the opposite, as he threatens U.S. allies and partnerssaying he’ll take Greenland from Denmark or the canal from Panama, both in violation of signed treaties.

Nor is Trump frustrated that Russia frequently fires at civilian targets. Trump sometimes laments the war’s destructiveness, but always generically, without blaming Russia, like how people talk about natural disasters. To cite a recent example, Trump unspecifically said, “So many people are dying in that mess.” At a meeting in February at the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump and Vice President JD Vance echoed Russian propagandablaming Ukraine for the war and denigrating Zelenskyy’s efforts to highlight Ukrainians’ suffering.

If Trump actually cared about Russia killing civilians, he never would have blocked aid for air defense. When he was asked at the news conference where he expressed frustration with Putin who ordered the pause, Trump said, “I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me.”

Support for Ukraine later resumed (for now), though that too seems primarily geared toward managing Trump’s image. His primary complaint is that Putin hasn’t dealt fairly with him, not that Russia’s war is illegitimate.

Most likely, what’s frustrating Trump is that events aren’t following his reality TV script, or Russia-sympathetic conspiracy theories. He promised he’d end the war on his first day back in office, using pressure on the Ukrainians and his personal rapport with Putin to stop the fighting, and get himself a Nobel Peace Prize. Now that self-aggrandizing fantasy is crashing into reality.

Trump put Putin above U.S. national interests, and Putin hasn’t returned the favor. Instead of prioritizing Trump’s image-crafting, Putin keeps prioritizing Russia’s national power. Putin wouldn’t even need to do much — he could just say this was all Joe Biden’s fault and give Trump something flimsy he can call a deal — but Putin won’t do even that. If anything, Putin seems to enjoy these displays of dominance, toying with Trump rather than giving him a fig leaf.

It may have finally been too much. Trump reportedly will authorize increased weapons sales to NATO countriesknowing they’re bound for Ukraine. If he follows through, it will improve Ukraine’s position, though even in that positive scenario it won’t undo the damage from six months of farcical negotiations.

At the end of May, Trump expressed frustration that talks hadn’t produced a deal and told reporters he might impose new sanctions on Russia. Then he didn’t, supposedly because doing so would hinder negotiations. But he had already eased sanctions enforcementreducing leverage over Russia before talks even began.

Congress is considering a new sanctions package, but Republicans won’t do it without Trump’s approval. Even if they pass it, enforcement could be lax and haphazard, and subject to the president’s moods.

Cultivating the president’s image is a different goal than ending the war.

Cultivating the president’s image is a different goal than ending the war. All it needs is something Trump can market as peace in the short term. In that way it’s similar to Trump’s trade wars, seeking to tout “deals” that the president “won,” rather than advance U.S. national interests.

Trump could impose economic penalties on Russia — currently one of the few countries exempt from his so-called reciprocal tariffs — but it will take work just to get back to the level of the pressure under Biden. In the short term, announcing more military sales to Europe might get Trump a diplomatic reaction, but won’t alter Russia’s core position, and, even with follow-through, will take time to impact conditions on the ground.

Occasionally pausing and overall reducing U.S. military aid to Ukraine made Russia less likely to negotiate, since battlefield gains improve their position in talks. That’s true even when some aid resumes, because the delays hinder Ukraine’s ability to fight, and make Russia think Ukraine will be weaker in the future. The only way to send a different message would be a big increase and credibly returning the American posture to unambiguously pro-Ukraine, with unqualified opposition to Russian aggression.

The fundamental truth of the Ukraine war today is the same it’s been since the beginning, no matter how many times Trump and others have denied it.

Putin attacked without provocation, for national and personal aggrandizement. He could stop it at any time, but chooses not to. That’s because he doesn’t want peacehe wants to dominate Ukraine, and thinks the death and destruction he’s causing is worth it.

Ukrainians, quite reasonably, don’t want to bow down to a foreign tyrant. They weren’t somehow tricked or forced into resisting Russia’s invasion — they chose to fight for their freedom.

That leaves only two possible paths to end the war:

1. Russia defeats the Ukrainian military, dismantles the Zelenskyy government and crushes Ukrainian independence.

2. Russia stops trying to conquer Ukraine, whether from a collapse of the war effort or deciding it’s no longer worth the cost, and either withdraws unilaterally or makes enough concessions that Ukraine takes a deal.

Only the second is a just peace with a chance of lasting, rather than another temporary pause in Russian aggression, during which they reconsolidate forces before attacking again.

But changing Russia’s calculus is hard. It’ll take time and sacrifice. It will bother Putin fans in Trump’s coalition, who genuinely want Russia to win because they see it as a culture war champion. It requires admitting that the Biden administration and America’s NATO allies got this one right from the start. And none of that is primarily about putting on a show to glorify Donald Trump.

So you can see why he’s frustrated.

If we see a sustained net increase in American weapons shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, stepped up economic pressure on Russia, and real, sustained solidarity with NATO and democratic Europeonly then will it be true that Trump has changed his Putin-sympathetic position.

But to get a real peace deal, U.S. pressure must be high and sustained enough that Putin comes to believe he’ll get more by compromising most of his war aims than by continuing to attack while playing on Trump’s combination of incompetence and susceptibility to manipulation. Given Trump’s long record with Putin, that’s a tough sell.

Nicholas Grossman

Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”