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The Dictatorship

The House GOP’s biggest hurdle next year may be the House GOP

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The House GOP’s biggest hurdle next year may be the House GOP

When President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office again on Jan. 20, it will complete a Republican takeover of Washington. The House and the Senate will have been sworn in two weeks earlier, offering the party a do-over for the trifecta it held in 2017 at the beginning of Trump’s first term. But while back then it was typically the White House acting as the biggest stumbling block to the Republican agenda, it seems likely that baton has been handed off to the incoming 119th Congress.

It’s easy to feel a sense of growing dread at what it means to have Republicans in full control again. I was filled with a similar sense ahead of the 2022 midterms — but one should never underestimate Republicans’ willingness to punch one another in the face out of spite. In many ways, a large number of the policies laid out in Project 2025 may not even need an organized resistance: At least in Congress, all Democrats need to do to notch a win is sit back and let the GOP tear itself apart, especially on the looming fight over taxes.

At least in Congress, all Democrats need to do to notch a win is sit back and let the GOP tear itself apart

You see, there’s a beautiful irony at work when it comes to the House Republican caucus. The last two election cycles have seen them capture, then retain, a majority of seats and the speaker’s gavel. When the last Congress was gaveled in, Republicans held 222 seats to the 213 that Democrats had won. The GOP then needed 13 rounds of voting to elect a speaker, only to narrowly avoid defaulting on America’s credit, before dumping said speaker nine months later. Add multiple occasions when a federal shutdown was averted thanks only to Democrats’ swooping in to save the GOP from itself, and it makes for a historically shoddy track record.

Most of that infighting centered on far-right members of the Freedom Caucus who pushed dead-end legislation to slash spending on the social safety net or otherwise to own the libs, be it by attacking transgender health care or yelling about gas stoves. With President Joe Biden in the White House and with Democrats running the Senate, it was an impractical strategy that undercut any leverage Republicans might have used to extract smaller concessions in the face of Democrats’ united opposition. The far right lashed out in anger at any yielding to political reality, even stymieing Republican messaging bills from reaching the House floor in protest as Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., attempted to keep the train on the rails.

This time around, Republicans are on track to hold as few as 220 seatsthe smallest starting majority in more than a century. If all members are present on both sides of the aisle (and assuming the Democrats can maintain party discipline), the GOP can afford to lose only three votes on any given bill before it fails. That margin could shrink even further in the weeks to come as the seats several of Trump’s Cabinet picks will vacate remain pending special elections. Even if the far right is completely placated in every bill Johnson puts forward, swing-seat Republicans still exist. Many of those front-line members barely staved off their opponents in the last election. Two years of backing Trump’s most divisive policies might be too much for their constituents to bear.

For a sense of how much this micro-majority might struggleremember that the only major legislation to emerge from Trump’s first term was the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Most of the tax cuts and other major provisions in that law expire after 2025, making their potential reauthorization one of the biggest fights ahead in this incoming session. When the bill first passed through Congress, it did so with 12 GOP defections in the House. That’s four times as many votes as the GOP can lose before a bill is tanked — with Democrats perfectly happy to let taxes on the middle class spike on Trump’s watch.

Democrats will be well within their rights to point out that the people holding the matches are also the ones stepping on the firehose.

Most of those GOP “no” votes in 2017 came from Republicans from more populous states, like New York and California, who were upset that the legislation capped the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction people could claim on their taxes. Trump has suggested he would lift that cap this time around, but without even bigger cuts to spending, doing so would blow an equally big hole in the deficit. While it seems likely the White House could unilaterally attempt to eliminate that spendingthe amount of borrowing required may be enough for the GOP’s remaining fiscal hawks to pause before promising their votes.

Fiscal hawks, SALT advocates, the Freedom Caucus — already that’s multiple competing factions, each attempting to get its way, that need to be appeased to get all the Republicans on the same page. Satisfying all of them may prove impossible when you consider that the Senate also must get on board with Republican senators having their own set of priorities. The lack of leverage that House leadership will have to force loyalty will only be compounded if it leaves in place the rule that allows a single member to call a vote on whether to topple the speaker, as we saw in 2023.

And that’s not considering the other basic housekeeping hurdles lined up down the track. The annual spending bills for the current fiscal year still need to be passed, and the debt ceiling will be un-paused in January, setting the stage for a potential crisis later in the year.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board correctly clocked that Republicans have roughly a year to get anything done legislatively before fretting about the midterm elections takes over. “Perhaps Donald Trump can keep them in line behind Speaker Mike Johnson,” their essay warned, while “factionalism will mean the end of a functioning majority and guaranteed defeat in 2026.” And with the whole of Washington in Republican hands, Democrats will be well within their rights to point out that the people holding the matches are also the ones stepping on the firehose.

Hayes Brown

Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for BLN Daily, where he helps frame the news of the day for readers. He was previously at BuzzFeed News and holds a degree in international relations from Michigan State University.

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The Dictatorship

Manchin pitches one last bad idea, says Biden should pardon Trump

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Manchin pitches one last bad idea, says Biden should pardon Trump

Sen. Joe Manchin’s lengthy career in public service, which began with a seat in West Virginia’s state legislature 42 years ago this week, has very nearly reached the end. The independent senator didn’t run for re-election this year, and in a month’s time, he’ll leave Capitol Hill.

But before he goes, Manchin has one more bad idea to pitch. The Hill reported:

Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) said Monday in an interview with BLN that President Biden should pardon President-elect Trump. “What I would have done differently, and my recommendation as a counsel woulda been, ‘Why don’t you go ahead and pardon Donald Trump, for all his charges?’” Manchin said of Biden’s pardoning of Hunter Biden when talking to BLN’s Manu Raju.

The West Virginian isn’t the only one thinking along these lines: A week before Manchin made the on-camera comments, The Washington Post published a related piece from the American Enterprise Institute’s Marc Thiessen and Danielle Pletka making the case for such a pardon. (This is a subject the pair apparently takes quite seriously: In June 2023, Thiessen and Pletka wrote a separate Washington Post opinion piece that also called on the incumbent Democratic president to pardon his Republican predecessor/successor.)

Those who make this argument tend to rely on predictable claims: Biden could pardon Trump in the interest of magnanimous healing, advancing the cause of bipartisan comity. Such a move would, proponents suggest, promote post-election unity, and help the country advance past a period of rancor and division.

Biden, in other words, could and should play the role of Gerald Ford, who pardoned Richard Nixon after he resigned in disgrace following the Watergate scandal.

Does the pitch have merit? No, it does not.

Right off the bat, it’s worth emphasizing that Biden has already vowed not to do this. In May 2020, during his campaign, the Delaware Democrat participated in a virtual town hall-style event on BLN and fielded a question from a concerned voter who asked whether Biden would pledge not to pardon Trump if elected.

“Absolutely, yes,” the then-candidate replied. “I commit.”

Three years later, as GOP presidential candidates talked up the idea of pardoning Trump if they were elected, reporters asked Biden about his stance on the issue. The president literally laughed at the questionsuggesting he hadn’t changed his mind.

What’s more, it’s not a secret that the Republican president-elect doesn’t exactly need a pardon: The Justice Department has a long-standing policy that says a sitting president can’t be prosecuted, which is why special counsel Jack Smith and his team have grudgingly agreed to wrap up their compelling, backed-by-voluminous-evidence criminal cases against Trump.

There’s also the relevance of partisan asymmetry: As Biden faces calls to pardon Trump to advance the cause of bipartisan healing, Trump is choosing right-wing radicals for key administration posts, making plans to retaliate against his perceived foes, and issuing Thanksgiving declarations condemning “Radical Left Lunatics who have worked so hard to destroy our Country.”

There is a national political leader who should probably hear more about the virtues of bipartisan unity, but it’s not Biden.

As my BLN colleague Hayes Brown recently summarized“In this construction, the unity and healing that the country needs are due to the actions of both sides of the aisle — but the only solution is forgiveness from one side. The trouble is there is no such thing as a unilateral reconciliation; it is a dialogue by its very nature. It’s true that Biden offering a pardon for Trump could be framed as outreach to the president-elect’s followers. But what, then, could be expected from this show of good faith? Are there reciprocal steps that would bring the MAGA movement away from the edge and toward a more united country?”

But even if we put all of this aside, the most important element of this debate is the importance of accountability: It’s not in the nation’s interests to let an accused felon get away with dangerous and unprecedented alleged crimes simply because it might make assorted partisans feel better. On the contrary, it would signal to future presidents that they, too, should expect to be pardoned for serious felonies, creating an unrestrained, accountability-free dynamic.

I don’t doubt that Biden will continue to hear additional advice along these lines in the coming days and weeks. For everyone’s benefit, here’s hoping the outgoing incumbent ignores the suggestions.

Steve Benen

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an BLN political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”

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The Dictatorship

Kash Patel has so-called ‘enemies list’ in 2023 book

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Kash Patel has so-called ‘enemies list’ in 2023 book
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The Dictatorship

Trump’s election denial movement isn’t over — it just has a new goal

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Trump’s election denial movement isn’t over — it just has a new goal

President-elect Donald Trump won the election outright after spending months preparing his followers to deem any loss the subject of fraud. With that win, though, the groundwork he laid didn’t simply vanish into the ether. What we’re now seeing is the MAGA movement twist and contort itself to try to make this new reality fit into its established worldview.

Trump voters themselves have proved remarkably malleable in this way. Prior to the election, a full 87% of Trump voters contacted in a survey by Politico and Morning Consult agreed that voter fraud was going to be a serious issue that could determine the race’s outcome. You may be shocked to learn that number plummeted during a survey conducted after the results were in, with only 24% thinking now that fraud could have determined the winner (or did).

Trump voters themselves have proved remarkably malleable in this way.

You’ll note, though, that number isn’t “zero,” as some people are still readily clinging to the specter of voter fraud and rewriting history in the process. A major conspiracy theory that circulated on the right after Election Day was that Trump’s victory vindicated their claims of fraud in 2020. Seeing Vice President Kamala Harris lose with fewer votes than Trump had earned four years ago became warped evidence that the previous race was rigged. (The difference in final vote count is better explained by how long California takes to tally its ballots and a wave of onetime voters opting to stay home this year.)

It’s in this space that conservative election deniers are operating, working to bolster their own priorities now that one of their major motivators lies dormant. “The election denial movement has been evolving and shapeshifting in an effort to stay relevant,” Lizzie Ulmer, a senior vice president at States United Actionrecently told Reuters. And while less overtly coordinated than the “Stop the Steal” effort that materialized after Trump’s 2020 loss, many of the goals and members remain the same.

Among them are the enablers and charlatans who are ready to sweep the less comfortable parts of their previous narratives under the rug. Conservative historian slash MAGA windbag Dinesh D’Souza was one of the loudest voices alleging voter fraud in 2020. Over the weekend, he posted an apology letter to his website stemming from his documentary “2000 Mules.” Endorsed by Trump and many of his acolytes, the film falsely claimed that a web of Democratic operatives dumped thousands of fraudulent ballots for Joe Biden in drop boxes around the country and that this was enough to “steal” the election from Trump.

Dinesh D’Souza at the Washington, D.C., premiere of his film “Death of a Nation” on Aug. 1, 2018.Shannon Finney / Getty Images file

In the letter, D’Souza specifically apologized to one person, Mark Andrews, who was labeled a ballot harvester (one of the supposed “mules”) and filed a defamation lawsuit in response. The film’s distributor, Salem Media, issued a similar retraction earlier this year. But it’s worth noting D’Souza mostly throws the group that provided the incorrect data “2000 Mules” analysis under the bus. He also doesn’t fully repentwriting that “the underlying premise of the film holds true” while offering a modicum of remorse for any harm caused to Andrews.

A number of Republicans are shifting tactics on mostly nonexistent voter fraud while retaining their overarching goals. After Trump’s loss in 2020, many GOP-controlled state legislatures hurried to pass stricter election laws on the pretense of blocking further cheating by Democrats. It would have been easy for them to pat themselves on the back and hang up a “Mission Accomplished” banner now that Trump’s headed back to the White House.

Instead, Republicans are doubling down to try to lock in their gains against future electoral losses, with even stricter laws being considered in Georgia and Arizona. Congressional Republicans will also likely resurrect the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Actwhich would force states to require documentary proof of citizenship when people register to vote. It’s a hurdle that would make registration harder for many voters in the name of solving the nonissue of noncitizens voting.

The thing about MAGA is that it doesn’t have to provide a coherent set of facts to uphold its ideology.

It’s been evident for years that voter fraud claims are often a self-serving pretext for conservative activists fighting increased access to the ballot box. That’s especially evident based on which groups have been targeted to have their ballots rejected and which cities have been accused of supporting mass fraud. (Hint: It is usually Democrats and, specifically, minorities who bear the brunt of these claims even as plenty of Republicans have been prosecuted for election crimes.)

The thing about MAGA is that it doesn’t have to provide a coherent set of facts to uphold its ideology. At its core is the presumption that Trump should be victorious and deserves the power that he amasses and distributes. Anything beyond that is plasticine ready to be sculpted for whoever is hoping to benefit, much the same way that many voters projected their hopes onto Trump — despite not liking a lot of the things he’s promised to do.

With such a simple framework, at heart, there’s little that can’t be folded into the narrative. When confronted with something that might shake that faith, the easiest thing to do is simply take a proverbial eraser to the past and fill in the blanks with whatever feels right in the moment.

Should the need arise in the next election, it will be all too simple to revive the same false claims as if they had never left. It leads to a world where elections are both entirely safe when you win and immediately suspect when you lose. But that kind of cognitive dissonance hurts only if you’re willing to accept that one of those things might be wrong.

Hayes Brown

Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for BLN Daily, where he helps frame the news of the day for readers. He was previously at BuzzFeed News and holds a degree in international relations from Michigan State University.

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