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The Dictatorship

The August jobs report is bad enough. The bigger picture is even worse.

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The August jobs report is bad enough. The bigger picture is even worse.

Earlier this week, economic forecasters predicted that this August employers added around 80,000 workers to their payrolls. But according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statisticsemployers added only 22,000 workers. In addition, though July’s payroll data was revised slightly up, June’s was revised downward to a loss of 13,000marking the first month of job losses since December 2020. And because the labor market is downstream of other economic indicatorsAugust’s report means that the economy could already be in trouble.

Alongside slow hiring, August’s unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest rate in four years. That means there are 3 million more people out of work than there were a year ago. Of those unemployed, 1.9 million are long-term unemployed: out of work and searching for a job for at least six months. That’s an increase of 385,000 from August of last year. Data from the 1960s through today shows that fast-rising long-term unemployment has been associated with recessions.

The administration’s economic agenda is driving up uncertainty and making everyday decisions for American businesses and consumers more difficult.

The job market is especially tough for younger workers. Among workers ages 20 to 24, the unemployment rate jumped to 9.2% in Augustthe highest since May 2021. Because the demographics in the report are based on a survey of households, specific age brackets have small sample sizes, and thus the numbers tend to be more volatile. Nevertheless, this doesn’t bode well for new labor market entrants.

After last month’s similarly anemic report, President Donald Trump claimed that the jobs numbers were “rigged” and fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. But the facts don’t lie — and the data is reliable even with the firing of the BLS commissioner, at least for the moment. There have long been safeguards to protect the data. The process is highly automated and relies on dozens of career staff; the commissioner is the only political appointee at the BLS. While budget cuts at the bureau have also created concerns about data qualityfor now, the system has guardrails.

Rather than blame the BLS, Trump should blame himself. His policies are creating challenges on both the supply and demand sides of the economy, affecting Americans in their roles as workers as well as consumers. To zoom in a bit more — the population of immigrant workers has declined by 1.2 million since Januarycreating constraints in certain industries ranging from agriculture to construction to child and other care services. Already, 26 states have reported declines in construction employment and major project delays due to labor shortages. This means home prices — which are hardly low at the moment — could skyrocket. Slowed infrastructure will cause roads to go unfixed and factories to remain unbuilt. Restaurants will struggle to find staff.

The administration’s economic agenda is driving up uncertainty and making everyday decisions for American businesses and consumers more difficult. Businesses can’t plan ahead, the manufacturing sector has shrunk for six straight months, and American workers are paying the price. A few months ago, Trump refused to rule out a potential recession, but predicted his policies “should be great for us.” This is far from “great” for working families.

The labor market conditions won’t be made any easier to endure with Trump’s budget law, which gutted the programs intended to help Americans during economic volatility. The law strips millions of health care and food assistance and drives up utility bills, all while giving a permanent tax cut to the wealthiest Americans.

The labor market conditions won’t be made any easier to endure with Trump’s budget law.

Whether we’ll continue to have reliable data from the BLS is an open question as well. Trump’s nominee to replace McEntarfer — E.J. Antoni — has urged officials to take a chain saw to the BLS and suggested we suspend the jobs report altogether. If that weren’t concerning enough, on Friday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett assured the nation that “next month” the data will be revised upward.

Trump inherited an economy that saw $1 trillion in private investment in manufacturing, a historic streak of low unemployment, and an inflation rate that had come down from pandemic levels. Instead of building on an economy dubbed the “envy of the world,” he’s sowed seeds of mistrust in the data as he pursues an agenda that only ensures the rich get richer. Friday’s report didn’t just show a stalling job market. It reinforced what we have seen time and again: The Trump administration has an antiworker agenda and it’s trying to pretend otherwise.

Heather Boushey

Dr. Heather Boushey is a senior research fellow at the Reimagining the Economy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School. She previously served on the White House Council of Economic Advisers and as the chief economist for President Biden’s Invest in America Cabinet.

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The Dictatorship

Airport lines grow longer — and Congress can’t even agree if DHS shutdown talks exist

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It’s been nearly a month since thousands of Department of Homeland Security employees were forced to begin working without pay, and the negotiations to overhaul and fund the department haven’t yielded any meaningful progress.

In fact, talks have moved so slowly that lawmakers are now publicly arguing over whether negotiations even exist.

Lengthening TSA lines, dwindling disaster aid funds and rejected proposals to fund portions of the department have forced lawmakers to acknowledge they’re nowhere close to a deal.

“If Democrats won’t sit down with us, it’s showing you who’s playing you right now,” Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., told reporters Tuesday. “They’re playing you.”

Britt said she’s sought meetings with Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, and has been rebuffed.

Murray said she’s willing to negotiate, but President Donald Trump’s White House needs to acknowledge it has to change tactics at Immigration and Customs Enforcement, as Democrats seek requirements for agents to wear body cameras, remove masks and cooperate with state and local investigations, among other things.

“I am willing to talk to people, but I’m not willing to sit in a room, have coffee, give away a few things and have Stephen Miller override whatever we all agreed to in a room,” Murray said on the Senate floor Wednesday.

Murray sought agreement on the Senate floor to pass a bill to fund most of the department, excluding funds for ICE, Customs and Border Protection and the secretary’s office, which Britt objected to.

That leaves the TSA, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Coast Guard and other agencies running on fumes, as pressure builds on lawmakers.

FEMA was projected to have about $5.9 billion left in its Disaster Relief Fund at the end of February and $2.1 billion left at the end of this month, according to its latest report. Those funds were projected to run out before the end of April.

TSA wait times have varied widely as employees work without pay. On Wednesday afternoon, the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport posted TSA wait times of 40 minutes at its main terminal. But Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, another major hub, posted wait times between 0 and 10 minutes at its terminals. Meanwhile, over the weekend, wait times in Houston and New Orleans were as long as three hours.

The ouster of Kristi Noem as Homeland Security secretary, and the selection of Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., as the new nominee, hasn’t won over Democrats. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said ICE needs to be overhauled legislatively, and not just a change in personnel.

“The president has fired Kristi Noem. Good riddance,” Schumer said last week when Mullin was named as the new nominee. “But the problems at this agency, at ICE, transcend any one person. The rot is deep.”

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a Republican who helped push Noem out of her position — citing over-the-top mass deportations, mismanagement of disaster responses and her decision to kill her dog — said he’s not sure Mullin will change the negotiations over DHS funding.

He said he expects Mullin to “have a transformative impact on FEMA.” But Tillis said he still wants answers about ICE operations in North Carolina, which Noem didn’t answer.

“I just want to demonstrate that this mass deportation idea was a bad idea because it was quantity over quality — quality of really bad people that need to be incarcerated or deported, or hopefully deported and incarcerated in whatever country they came from,” Tillis told MS NOW Wednesday.

It’s been nearly two weeks since the White House last sent Democrats an offer in the ICE negotiations. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told reporters Wednesday that Democrats still hadn’t responded to the latest GOP offer.

Thune said Republicans aren’t going to agree to a funding bill that cuts out money for ICE and CBP.

“You take away border security — I can’t imagine wanting to do that,” he said. “This bill needs to move together.”

The spat over funding other agencies only highlighted the chasm between the two parties on policy changes at ICE and CBP.

“We are not going to defund the police,” Britt said of Murray’s proposal to fund other agencies. “We are not going back to Biden’s open borders.”

Murray pushed back, contending it’s “absurd” to say Democrats are defunding the police. She noted that ICE and CBP received billions of dollars in last year’s Republican reconciliation bill — money that’s still available during the shutdown.

After the tense exchange on the Senate floor Wednesday, Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, said it’s clear lawmakers have a long way to go.

“We are not that close,” Schatz said. “And so if everybody agrees on that, that we’re not that close, that it’s not like negotiations have shut down, but they’re a little stalled.”

Jack Fitzpatrick covers Congress for MS NOW. He previously reported for Bloomberg Government, Morning Consult and National Journal. He has bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Arizona State University.

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The Dictatorship

Norway arrests 3 brothers in bombing at U.S. Embassy in Oslo

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Norway arrests 3 brothers in bombing at U.S. Embassy in Oslo

Three brothers were arrested Wednesday in a weekend bombing at the U.S. Embassy in Oslowhich Norwegian police are treating as a possible act of terrorism.

Authorities said the men, who have not been publicly identified, are Norwegian citizens “with a background from Iraq.” They are all in their 20s.

Officials earlier said Sunday’s explosion caused limited damage to the structure and no injuries. Prime Minister Jonas Store called the attack “very serious and completely unacceptable.”

Investigators said they have not determined a motive but had not ruled out terrorism.

“It’s natural to see this in the context of the current security situation and that this could be an ​attack deliberately targeting the U.S. Embassy,” Oslo police official Frode Larsen said shortly after the explosionreferring to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.

U.S. embassies and consulates around the world, particularly in Gulf countries caught in the crossfire, have been on high alert since the war with Iranbegan Feb. 28. The U.S. ordered the departure of nonemergency government personnel and families from missions in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Oman. Suspected Iranian drones struck the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabiaand the U.S. Consulate in Dubailast week. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was also targeted in a rocket attackSaturday.

Shortly after the bombing in Oslo, shots were fired at the exterior of the U.S. Consulate in Toronto, Canada, on Tuesday.

The State Department did not immediately respond to MS NOW’s request for comment on the Oslo arrests.

Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.

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The Dictatorship

Wednesday’s Mini-Report, 3.11.26

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Wednesday’s Mini-Report, 3.11.26

Today’s edition of quick hits.

* All eyes on the Strait of Hormuz: “Leaders from the coalition of G7 countries — which is made up of the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom — met virtually today to discuss how to ease the economic strain caused by the Iran war, including the possibility of escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz with military assets.”

* In related news: “Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it struck two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, as the war disrupts one of the world’s most crucial economic passageways and threatens industries across the globe.”

* A case I’ve been following: “The U.S. must keep making payments on the $16 ​billion New York Hudson Tunnel, after an appeals ‌court on Wednesday rejected the Trump administration’s bid to halt paying for the project.”

* All of the latest inflation data was collected before the war: “Prices consumers pay for a broad range of goods and services rose in line with expectations for February, offering a final look at inflation pressures before an oil shock tied to the Iran war rattled the outlook. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday. Both numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.”

* The Epstein files: “On the heels of news reports that more than 40,000 files were either withheld or taken down from the Department of Justice’s site with documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, the DOJ late last week released documents including FBI memos related to accusations against President Donald Trump. But MS NOW has found that the released files still appear to be incomplete, missing FBI notes and memos reflecting interviews with women alleging abuse by other prominent men.”

* In related news: “The anonymous artists who have targeted President Donald Trump with satirical statues and installations in Washington struck again on the National Mall on Tuesday morning with an enormous statue of the president embracing the deceased convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in a reenactment of a famous scene from the movie ‘Titanic.’”

* Bringing more guns to more convicted criminals: “The Trump administration quietly restored the gun rights to 22 people who had lost them because of felonies, indictments or other convictions this year as it prepares to revive a long-dormant program that’s expected to draw a tsunami of applications.”

* This proposal seems entirely worthwhile: “Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is introducing new legislation Wednesday to recover federal money that’s been paid out to U.S. presidents through settlements resulting from White House coercion. Here’s a copy of his billfirst obtained by HuffPost. In case it’s not obvious, the legislation is directly aimed at President Donald Trump.”

See you tomorrow.

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”

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