Politics
Margins of Error
Members of President Donald Trump’s political team asked Ohio Republicans last week not to wage a public pressure campaign against embattled GOP Rep. Max Miller, after they became increasingly convinced he wouldn’t end his reelection bid.
Their engagement, according to three people granted anonymity to share direct knowledge of private conversations, came as Miller insists he has no plans to withdraw despite serious allegations of domestic abuse, which he denies. Before that, some White House officials and Republicans had urged Miller to drop out of his race for reelection.
Miller’s determination to remain in the race would render efforts to oust him moot, administration officials reasoned in calls with party leaders and other Republicans in the state over the past week. It would complicate messaging, the officials argued, when those same leaders would likely later have to defend Miller’s candidacy against a Democratic challenger.
“They basically told us to back off,” said one Ohio Republican involved in the conversations, “and let the voters decide.”
Miller faced a 4 p.m. Monday deadline to drop out, and state party leaders would have had to schedule a meeting to discuss his replacement two days prior to that.
At one point, Republicans in the state discussed scheduling the required meeting to replace Miller, in the hopes it would pressure him to drop out of the race, according to two of the people. But Ohio Republicans scuttled that effort as White House officials warned them that Miller would not drop out and Republicans would likely have to defend the seat without a new GOP replacement contender.
Spokespeople for Miller and for the White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Some Republicans argue they have no choice but to close ranks around a candidate accused by his father-in-law, Ohio GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno, of being unfit to serve and needing psychological help; Ohio’s other Republican senator, Jon Husted, has also said Miller should resign and not run for reelection. Miller has remained defiant amid the calls to resign.
Allegations from Emily Moreno, the senator’s daughter and Miller’s ex-wife, include that Miller held a gun to her head and broke their daughter’s collarbone. Many of the allegations were contained in state investigatory documents related to a child abuse probe. Miller has denied the allegations.
Speaker Mike Johnson has so far declined to weigh into Miller’s candidacy as well, telling Blue Light News in an interview that he will let the House Ethics Committee process play out first. The committee announced an investigation into Miller last week, after the representative said he would file paperwork to investigate himself.
The allegations could haunt Miller in his competitive race this November against Democrat Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker already benefitting from the political headwinds facing Republicans — from high gas prices to the ongoing war in Iran.
“As I’ve said before, if the accusations against Max Miller are proven true, he should be in prison, not in Congress. It’s unfortunate that Miller has chosen to keep putting his ex-wife and her family through this nightmare in the public spotlight,” Poindexter said in a statement when it became official Miller was staying on the ballot. “But let me be perfectly clear. I got into this campaign to fight for my neighbors and for working people across this district. That continues to be my north star.”
It comes at a time when Republicans cannot afford to lose any members of their slim majority without risking a House Democratic takeover in 2027. Ohio’s 7th Congressional District was, just weeks ago, considered safely red; now, Republicans have polling that shows Miller underwater in his district.
Some National Republicans argue the seat will inevitably stay in GOP hands. It is a reliably conservative district Trump won by 11 points in 2024. Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters said in an interview Sunday with NewsNation that the party’s main campaign fundraising arm would likely continue to support Miller’s reelection bid.
“We’re gonna support our nominees,” Gruters said. “We need to make sure we hold the majorities. Max, I’m sure, is on that side, but listen, everybody has to prove that they are capable of winning, and then we’re going to look at our resources and make the decisions.”
But other Republicans fear that Miller’s decision to remain in the race will force party committees to spend heavily.
“It’s still winnable, it’s just going to be expensive,” said one national Republican operative, like others granted anonymity to speak candidly. “At a time when Republicans are playing defense, like you’re just spreading your dollars thinner and thinner across the board.”
A second Ohio-based Republican said they are “concerned” that the allegations against Miller are “going to result in fewer votes, less ability to fundraise.”
“Nothing good comes out of this,” the Republican said. “He’s not going to gain any votes, and he’s not going to gain any fundraising, and he’s going to be completely distracted. It’s a sideshow.”
Another White House official last week noted the growing sense of inevitability that Miller would remain in the race, once the two-term lawmaker and former Trump aide began comparing his situation to attempts over the years to take down Trump for similar accusations of abuse and misconduct.
“I don’t think he’s going anywhere,” the White House official told Blue Light News after the president spoke with Miller on the matter.
Politics
‘I’ll never bow down’: Montana Democratic Senate nominee refuses to pave way for independent
Montana’s Democratic Senate nominee on Monday refused to drop her campaign to clear the way for an independent candidate, setting up a crowded race that is likely to help Republicans win in November.
Alani Bankhead made certain with hours to go before Monday’s deadline that she would not step aside to give independent Seth Bodnar — who is backed by former Sen. John Tester (D-Mont.) — a clearer run at Republican Kurt Alme.
“I’ll never bow down,” Bankhead said during a press conference ahead of the 7 p.m. Eastern Time deadline to drop out. “I am in this race to win it and I am staying through Nov. 3.”
Bankhead accused her opponents of being “hand picked” by the establishment while she won the Democratic Primary.
Her refusal to drop is no surprise. She told Blue Light News earlier this month that it would take “a lighting bolt from God” to convince her to exit, and she’s cast Bodnar’s backing from Tester as proof that he’s more aligned with the establishment than she is.
It’s caused a significant headache for Democrats, who have had some success getting their candidates to drop out for independents in other deep-red states carried by President Donald Trump by wide margins in 2024. Democrats in Idaho, South Dakota and Nebraska have all dropped their bids, though legal challenges could still complicate some of those efforts.
But Montana is Democrats’ best shot of actually flipping a seat with an independent candidacy, and Bankhead remaining on the ballot is likely to complicate that path exponentially.
Polling has shown Bodnar in a competitive head-to-head position against Alme and closer than if Bankhead had a one-on-one contest. But with both on the ballot, Alme leads by more than 20 points. Democrats like Tester and former Gov. Steve Bullock have found success in the red-leaning state, but a split ticket all but cedes the race to the GOP and narrows Democrats’ path to a majority in the upper chamber.
Bodnar and his allies have upped their focus on Bankhead in recent days. A super PAC backing Bodnar has been hammering her on television while another group is posting signs around the state calling for her to drop out.
More than 20 local Democratic lawmakers recently called on Bankhead to drop out, as well as former Democratic Party leaders. But in the end, their argument wasn’t enough to change Bankhead’s mind.
Bodnar recently told reporters ahead of the Monday deadline that he, too, had no plans to drop — while publicly bashing Bankhead for the first time.
“On the Democratic side, millions of dollars of outside dark money poured into a primary to determine an outcome,” Bodnar said at a press conference. “Now they have a candidate who’s unvetted.”
KENOSHA, Wisconsin — The progressive movement’s midterms march has arrived in Wisconsin, where a democratic socialist is forcing establishment Democrats to mount an all-out, last-ditch effort to stop her.
State Rep. Francesca Hong is the front-runner to become the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, fueled by a populist campaign tapping into voters’ cost of living concerns. David Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive backed by outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, has emerged as the top candidate trying to cut off Hong’s bid.
Ahead of Tuesday’s primary, electability was top of mind for voters and both candidates as they raced to prove they could build the widest, strongest coalition against presumptive Republican nominee Tom Tiffany.
Crowley and Evers have been barnstorming the swing state over the past week, warning a vote for Hong risks losing the governor’s mansion in November to Tiffany, a hard-right member of the House Freedom Caucus backed by President Donald Trump.
“You know, it’s the only time that I know that the governor — Tony Evers — the Republican Governors Association and Turning Point USA have ever been on the same page: in thinking that Francesca Hong is the best candidate to lose this race,” Crowley said in an interview at a local tavern in Sheboygan on Friday.
Hong rejects those warnings. Speaking to voters at events across the state, Hong argues Democratic voters are fed up with the establishment ahead of November — and that she can appeal to a wide array of Democrats, Republicans and people who don’t feel represented by either party.
“We have to take this moment, a movement moment, and be bold with transformative change, and build the actual big tent that we can and we must be as Democrats,” Hong told a crowd of about 50 people gathered at a senior community center in deep-red Siren.
Hong, a 37-year-old former chef and single mother who represents the bluest district in the state assembly, has charted a remarkably rapid rise in a purple state that Trump won by just shy of 30,000 votes in 2024. She launched her campaign as a long shot, with far less name recognition than other Democrats in the race like Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Both of them have since dropped out. And despite being at a consistent fundraising disadvantage — Hong still has not put out a single television ad — the progressive has maintained wide leads in public polling.
But Hong’s campaign has also faced intense scrutiny over a string of controversial past social media posts, including advocating for defunding the police and railing against Thanksgiving. She was later slammed for being unable to give a straightforward answer to CNN about whether she would “cancel Thanksgiving.”
Following those missteps, Hong’s team has clamped down on her interactions with both local and national media at campaign events in the final stretch. She has also moderated some of her past positions in public remarks, emphasizing repeatedly that she is “serious about public safety” and even attempting to eschew some of her anti-establishment ties.
On Wednesday, she reversed herself on Thanksgiving, telling POLITICO that it was, in fact, her favorite holiday. And asked by Blue Light News on Saturday if she had any regrets about her past, she told reporters at a campaign stop in Sheboygan that she had learned from her tweets.
“I had some hot takes, some bad takes on Twitter, but when you’re a business owner running a restaurant during Covid, trying to pay bills as a student, you’re putting feelings out there into the world,” Hong said. “But I’ve evolved, I’ve learned. I think it’s more dishonest not to learn.”
Hong has leaned heavily into affordability policies, including raising the state’s minimum wage from $7.25 to $20, progressive taxation and a statewide one-year moratorium on data center construction — a salient issue in Wisconsin, where several local governments have already voted on moratoriums.
“While many of our supporters or other folks have framed us as anti-establishment, what we are for is working-class people,” she told Blue Light News. “It’s not so much being anti-establishment as it is ensuring that we’re listening to voters who are demanding change.”
But many Democrats in the state worry her ideology — including the old social media posts hawking far-left talking points — will be a political risk in a battleground general election.
Pro-Republican PACs, including one associated with the Republican Governors Association, have spent millions of dollars to boost Hong in the primary so they can face who they perceive to be a weaker candidate in November.
Kyle Kilbourn, a Democrat who unsuccessfully ran against Tiffany for his House seat in 2024, said he still had not decided who to support in the primary because of concerns about “electability statewide.”
“The last several elections have been very very close, by one or two percentage points, and so it matters,” he told Blue Light News while attending a Hong event at a brewery in Rhinelander.
Even some of Hong’s supporters are anxious.
“It’s always going to be a concern,” Jan Stroman, who attended an event in River Falls, said when asked if Hong could win against Tiffany.
Robert LaGesse, 74, said at an event in far-north Superior on Friday he was voting for Hong — but admitted Hong’s tweets about abolishing the police “sounds like a foolish statement that could hurt her big time.”
At the same event, a young Hong campaign volunteer asked her about those social media posts.“I’m not going to abolish the police as governor,” Hong responded. “I cannot and I will not defund the police.” She was asked a similar version of the same question at nearly every other event last week.
Some supporters also fear that Hong will face racist and sexist backlash as an Asian American woman. Wisconsin has never elected a governor who is not a white man.
“There’s a lot of sexism yet in our country,” Tim Freiss, 60 — a Hong supporter who previously voted for both Bush presidencies — said in an interview outside his home in Green Bay.
“Honestly, what I’m worried about is her race, because our state is very racist,” another Hong supporter, Heidi Meyer, 48, said as Hong canvassed her neighborhood in Appleton.
Democratic officials in the Badger State are determined to unify after the primary, but many are deeply concerned Hong isn’t running the disciplined campaign required to defeat a Trump-backed Republican in Wisconsin.
The messy race has also deeply divided Democrats in the state. Hong’s allies bristle at Evers’ campaign against her, using his resources — including his own communications staff — to boost Crowley. Evers defeated Republican then-Gov. Scott Walker in 2018 by deploying his brand of more moderate Democratic policies to win over independents and limit deep losses in rural areas. But he decided not to run for a rare third term as governor.
Evers on Friday would not commit to endorsing or campaigning with Hong should she win — though Democrats expect he’ll have to.
“I want to have a chance to take a breath, and once that’s in a position, we’ll see,” Evers said in an interview as he walked with Crowley from a Hmong family-owned bakery in Sheboygan to the corner tavern packed with supporters.
Crowley, asked if he would campaign for Hong this fall if she wins the nomination, shot back with a smile: “Ask her that too.” But he quickly added: “I want to be very clear: I’m not in this race running against any of my opponents. I’m running for the votes of Wisconsinites, and if they don’t choose me to be the nominee, my job is to make sure that it’s blue no matter who.”
Asked Saturday if she would endorse and campaign with Crowley if he wins on Tuesday, Hong replied with one word: “Yes.”
Hong has admitted the democratic socialist label comes with baggage — “I can’t say I always love it for me,” she said at a restaurant in River Falls — but she also rejected the notion that her campaign is undisciplined and noted that establishment Democrats had consistently underestimated her bid. She hopes to work with Democrats across the ideological spectrum in the sprint toward November.
“We’re a serious campaign that has built a movement and turned out new voters, folks who are voting for the first time,” Hong said. “We’re a serious campaign that knows how to win, but we’re also serious about working as a coalition and making sure that we collaborate and coordinate with the people that we need to to make sure we defeat Tom Tiffany in the fall.”
Crowley has charted a more moderate path than Hong’s blistering democratic socialism. In an interview, he argued the party needs “someone who’s not just going to fight back, but also who can sit at the negotiating table and be able to work with folks who want to deliver for those that we represent.” He also ruled out the data center moratorium popular with a wide swath of voters that Hong is running on and using to pull in some pockets of rural support: “So, the way I hear that question is that we’re going to preempt local communities from not being able to focus on their own economic development,” Crowley said.
There are signs that Crowley is making some gains. But he’s still 20 percentage points behind Hong in the latest polling.
“Crowley is closing the gap, but it’s likely too little, too late,” said one longtime Wisconsin Democratic strategist, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the governor’s pick.
Crowley’s team argues that Wisconsin polling is likely off just as it was in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed clinched the Democratic Senate nomination last week by a tighter than expected margin. But the signs of Hong’s strength are evident across the state, beyond just her stronghold of Madison. The first voter Crowley greeted at his opening Sheboygan stop Friday, Paige Gerber, said in an interview later she had already voted early for Hong.
Supporters at the Crowley event later in the day were well aware of his standing. Voter after voter in interviews with Blue Light News expressed alarm that their party was poised to pick Hong, a losing horse in their view.
Retirees in “radicalized by basic decency” T-shirts sipped on beer and cheered when Evers walked through the door with Crowley, alongside local IBEW union workers and teachers. “Tony! Tony!” chants eventually rang through the bar.
A Crowley staffer at one point tried to start a “David! David!” cheer. But it never caught on.
Tyler Katzenberger contributed to this report.
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