Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett is set to declare a U.S. Senate run on Monday, jolting an already contentious Democratic primary as the party banks on flipping the reliably red state in its push to retake control of Congress’ upper chamber.

Crockett, a two-term representative from Dallas, will challenge state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star within the Democratic Party. Despite polling suggesting an uphill battle, Democrats feel optimistic about winning statewide in Texas for the first time in decades by harnessing the same backlash to Trump that fueled their successful off-cycle elections last month. In 2018, the party caught a glimmer of hope when Beto O’Rourke came within 2 points of defeating Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in a blue wave.

Former Rep. Colin Allred, the first Democrat to get into the race, dropped out on Monday ahead of Crockett’s announcement, citing a desire to avoid a messy primary and the likelihood of a runoff that would be triggered if no candidate receives a majority of the first round of votes in the March 3 primary. It was Allred’s second attempt at a Senate run: He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by more than 8 percentage points.

In recent weeks, Crockett publicly debated whether to jump in, saying she would only do so if polling showed she could win. She has said she believes she can expand the electorate in Texas, a formidable task given the state’s entrenched Republican politics and rightward shift in 2024, including in former Democratic strongholds along the border. She’ll kick off with an event Monday afternoon in Dallas.

Crockett will be able to draw on a national profile and strong fundraising network. As a House member in a solidly blue district, she raised more than $6.5 million already this year as of the end of September, largely online from small-dollar donors. She is known for going head to head against GOP rivals, and has attracted criticism for some of her comments, such as calling wheelchair-bound Texas Gov. Greg Abbott “hot wheels.”

She’s faced obstacles in the House, coming up short in a bid for a caucus leadership position and for Democrats’ top position on the Oversight Committee. Now her Senate bid is causing some musical chairs in the House, brought on by the Texas GOP’s new gerrymander. Her decision to run for Senate wards off one potentially tough member-on-member primary for her current seat, but Allred’s switch to vie for a recently redrawn House seat against Rep. Julie Johnson is forcing another messy primary in a safe blue district.

Republicans say Crockett’s combative reputation will disqualify her among moderate Texans. Sen. John Cornyn has been goading Crockett into the race, and his campaign believes she will be easily defeated in a general election.

But first Cornyn would have to survive a packed and bloody Republican primary. And his vulnerability among conservative primary voters who question his MAGA bonafides has Democrats frothing at the opportunity to flip the seat. He’s up against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a far-right firebrand who’s often considered the frontrunner since launching his campaign in April. Rep. Wesley Hunt jumped into the race in October, essentially guaranteeing the early March primary will go to a runoff.

Democrats are staking their hopes of flipping Texas on a continued GOP split — and the possibility of Paxton, whom they view as a weaker candidate, advancing to the general election.

Crockett told the Dallas Morning News last week that she had called Allred and Talarico to discuss polling she had commissioned showing she could win the election. Talarico’s campaign said she never actually shared the survey when they spoke. Talarico has achieved fame for his liberal view of Christianity and involvement in a walkout staged by Texas state lawmakers over Republicans gerrymandering a congressional map at President Donald Trump’s request.